PyRo's Horse Bets.

happyenough

Good stuff Pyro! Had a nifty fifty on that dancer!

ft9

happyenough wrote: »

Good stuff Pyro! Had a nifty fifty on that dancer!

Your happy enough so?

Soarer

With this and Aidan's 20/1 shot coming in, I've had a lovely little day, thanks very much!

Mr E

Nice one, xP.

Feck the long shots.... I'd take a steady stream of '3's and '4's any day!

Derek!

Just logged in to thank you Pyro fair play
I done a bigger than normal bet when I seen you goin 4 points on it
Thanks mate

x PyRo

Lovely stuff men, pity Markab couldn't bring in the double. Ground against him imo.

Still, can't complain and the pinteens will be flowing tonight all going well.

scopper

Thanks Pyro, I'm not so big on the bets these days, but I always check your thread. When I saw the confidence you had here I put down a straight 4pt bet and was not surprised to see it come through. :cool:

3ndahalfof6

Thank you once again sir, I had a couple of nice price places meself on top of your very nice winner, the wine is being opened as we type.

x PyRo

Another good day at the office despite Markab finding the ground all too much. He ran a cracking race to finish second and on faster going, he's still going to be a force to be reckoned with. There's not a whole pile of strength in depth in the sprinting division and when getting his conditions, there's another Group race in this fellow. Today was a much better effort compared to what he showed on his opening couple of starts this year and he only found an improving 4 year old to be that bit better. The ground favoured Deacon Blues and on a quicker surface, I'd fancy Henry Candy's veteran to overturn that form with relative ease. Good effort today, just not good enough to win.

My borderline max-bet, Dux Scholar, showed his class today with a very taking victory in what was a more than useful Listed contest. The extra yardage proved to be no barrier to this talented and progressive 3 year old as he took it in his stride. Ryan Moore settled him towards the rear of the field and switched him to the other side with about half a mile to go. He caught the field napping when coming with a run to take up proceedings with a couple to go and the turn of foot he showed to scoot clear was impressive. A couple came out of the pack to chase him home and cut down the deficit but he ran out a most convincing winner. Group races await this fellow and I think he'll have a lot more to come yet. +16.20pts from a 4pt bet at 9/2, including a 10p R4 for some non-runners.

+14.20pts on yet another good day and from my last 5 selections, 3 have won and 2 have finished second. The summer months ain't half-bad!

Stat Attack -

Overall Bank - 384.49pts (+284.49pts)

2011 Flat Stats -

Profit - +170.70pts

Bets - 160
Wins - 19
Placed - 36
Win SR - 11.8%
Staked - 430.00pts
Returned - 600.70pts
ROI - +39.70%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

July Stats -

Profit - +45.53pts

Bets - 23
Wins - 4
Placed - 5
Win SR - 17%
Staked - 55.00pts
Returned - 100.53pts
ROI - +82.8%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

As it stands, July is currently on target to be even better than June (ROI is already bigger) and hopefully it will be. Things are going well and long may it continue. Although a crushing end is due any time soon!

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

.......... Although a crushing end is due any time soon!

Well done, fantastic performance and excellent picking. Fingers crossed you don't get the crushing end, us punters are conditioned to expect the crushing end, they don't come to everyone

cathy01

Thanks pyro, I told my dad the name of the horse and he put his last fiver on it, as did his frined.He won, so he was delighted.I dont have a clue about putting on a bet but Dad was made up, and I got to look like I had a clue.Thanks,Cathy:D

AstonMartin

Just had a look at the thread xpyro. very well done and good to see the analysis.

I see in one of your last few posts you say "I won't make millions backing 9/2 shots".

Is the not more important to find a high percentage value rather than high odds? A 9/2 pick with a 20% perceived edge is a lot better than a 20/1 shot with a 15% edge and that is even more important if using a current bank betting strategy.

Anyway, whatever your doing just keep doing it.

What resources do you use when analyzing races? How do you price up a race?

Soarer

AstonMartin wrote: »

What resources do you use when analyzing races? How do you price up a race?

Jaysus, why don't you just ask the man if you can sleep with his wife?!

adamski09

Soarer wrote: »

Jaysus, why don't you just ask the man if you can sleep with his wife?!

can I sleep with your wife?????? please

Soarer

adamski09 wrote: »

Soarer wrote: »

Jaysus, why don't you just ask the man if you can sleep with his wife?!

can I sleep with your wife?????? please

If you make me as much money as Pyro, maybe!

x PyRo

lol at the recent comments! :pac: Cheers to everyone, things going well for a change.

Aston, I'll get back to you on that. Between general life things and trying to find the odd winner, I'm caught for time and half-asleep whenever I'm awake! I will get back to you though.

---

3:40 Catterick - The Nifty Fox - 3pts @ 8/1 (VC)

The betting suggests that this will be a wide-open competitive sprint handicap and whilst that's probably correct on the face of it, I believe you need a certain type of animal to win around here. The Nifty Fox fits the bill and despite being above his highest ever winning mark, he could be primed and ready to strike again. He's a thoroughly exposed 7 year old and further improvement is unlikely, but this contest will be run perfectly for him, so I fail to see how he won't be in the firing line. 12/1 was available earlier on and I'm annoyed to miss that, but the current odds are still much too big and I expect to see it shorten significantly.

The race contains plenty of front-runners and pressers, so it should be run at a very solid pace, even for a race over this minimum 5 furlong trip. Having the ability to sit in behind this pace without problem is a must at a track like this and The Nifty Fox will have no problem in that regard. He's a fine mover and has buckets of pace, so a rapidly run race helps to see him at his best. Another necessity with him is cut in the ground and with soft going being very likely, this further enhances his chances of landing the spoils. His course record is also exceptional and this is the first time he comes back here since landing this race back in '09 off a 1lb lower mark (this race is much easier).

His overall course form reads; 5-4-1-3-8-1-2-1. That's quite impressive anyways and this is a specialist track, so for this animal to have gained nearly half of his career victories in a small number of starts would add extra significance. He hasn't won since his last visit here and even though he has proved he's hard to win with nowadays, he still retains the majority of his previous abilities. This year, The Nifty Fox has run some decent races, the best of which was a ¼ length defeat to subsequent winner Ginger Ted at Ayr on similar ground to that of which he'll face today. To see him run such a big race in what was a more competitive affair is pleasing and I think he's being severely underrated now that he drops back into C4 company for the first time since running an eye-catching 4th of 15 at Thirsk in May (off the same mark). The pace just wouldn't collapse that day and with that scenario likely to play out here, I feel he can end his long losing run.

Tim Easterby most certainly knows the time of day and I feel it's significant that The Nifty Fox now makes his return to what is his favourite track. This race is not beyond him at all and I'd expect that strong market support will be the order of the day once connections get stuck in. David Allan has guided this fellow to 6 of his 7 career wins and he hops back on board having not been used last time out, whether that means anything is beyond me. This horse is a tough one to win with though and Allan is able to get the best out of him, so there's no better man to have on his back. He's also riding very well of late and the yard are going strong, so that's yet another plus.

I don't think there's anything to fear here, bar possibly Arganil if he can come back to his best turf form, which hasn't been shown for a while. He does like to get his toe in though, so ground conditions will suit. I still think this track will see him swept off his feet and although he's bound to be finishing fast, it may be too late. Your Gifted is in the form of her life, as she's in foal and although it would be silly to completely discount her, I think the 4/1 price-tag is much too short. Overall, The Nifty Fox could take a lot of beating here and with valid excuses as to why he performed so badly at Chester last time out (terrible draw and racing position), he's being overlooked in the betting here. I'd mark him up as a 4/1 shot and given that he's double the price at the moment, I'll happily play medium win stakes. There's no reason why he shouldn't go well and I wouldn't be too shocked if he won easily. He could do the opposite and completely bomb out but hopefully that won't be the case!

cathy01

Have you have tips for my Dad, hes going to Lepordstown tomorrow, or hes watching it??Thanks Cathy

x PyRo

No luck on Wednesday with The Nifty Fox. He was fairly well-backed throughout the day before being easy to back on course. Things didn't pan out favourably and a combination of slightly losing his footing 2f from home and failing to be get a good ride for David Allan cost him a chance. He's impossible to win with and I'll be leaving him well alone for the time being. Que a comfortable win next time out!

-3.00pts on the day.

Slightly shorter write-ups than usual for today.

4:30 Ascot - Dhaamer - 2pts @ 13/2 (WillHill)

11 runners are set to go to post for this competitive Class 2 Handicap and whilst I've narrowed it down to a few runners, it's quite hard to be overly confident about any of them. The pace should be relatively strong though and with softer ground being very likely, I expect to see a very big race from John Gosden's lightly-raced 4 year old, Dhaamer. He's a nice moving type who has only run on 6 occasions and despite the worst of those runs came on a soft surface, I feel he should have no problems with conditions.

That outing was his final run from 4 starts last year and although he was ultimately well beaten, I feel there was valid excuses. Despite being expected to take the step up to 1m 4f in his stride (had previously won twice over 1m 2f), Dhaamer just didn't see out the trip in the testing conditions. However, he moved very well through his race before finding nothing off the bridle and I think that the ground isn't a problem given how he cruised into contention. His jockey wasn't too hard on him that day, when beaten, and the final losing margin shouldn't be taken too literally. Now that he encounters this ground over what should be his optimum trip, 1m 2f, I'm hopeful of a big run.

Dhaamer lined out twice this year, both in useful contests at unorthodox tracks, namely Epsom and Pontefract. The first of those runs, at Epsom, was a more than useful 3rd of 11 behind course specialist Resurge. The ground was plenty lively enough for John Gosden's charge and despite hitting the front with a couple to go, he just couldn't keep up to his work. Ultimately, I'm not sure that a speed test suits him and now that he visits Ascot on a slower surface, we'll see a much improved horse.

Next time out, he was done by poor positioning in a slowly run race at Pontefract, a course that suits those racing handy. The winner, Suits Me, lines up here (only 15/2, 5lbs worse off) and on that occasion, he had the run of the race and slowed it down before quickening it up. All of this wouldn't be how the strong travelling Dhaamer wants things to go and the inclusion of a couple of other potential pacemakers will help. He's currently rated 87 and that's not a mark which should prove to be beyond him. I think he's potentially a fair bit better than that and just needs things to suit him. They should do here and therefore he's overpriced at a current price-tag of 13/2. Gosden comes down with just one runner, the reliable (sarcasm) Richard Hills comes down for just one ride and it's one they can expect to go well. There are a few dangers, but I feel my selection is the best suited to how this should go and hopefully he'll prove me right. Small stakes though, as the opposition are quite useful and a couple worry me (namely Pipette (20/1) & Point North (10/3)).

LightningBolt

Wouldn't be too up on horses but a friend of mine has mentioned this horse before and to watch out for him in a slow race.

Duly following you on this one.

x PyRo

No luck with Dhaamer, as he performed below his abilities at Ascot. He moved nicely as usual but he had no turn of foot under pressure and could only go on at one pace, eventually finishing in 7th. I've no idea what to make of him now and maybe he's just not as good as I originally though. I'll still keep a keen eye out for him though, as he's surely better than that. Disappointing.

-2.00pts on the day.

3:15 Ascot - My Freedom - 3pts @ 5/1 (WillHill)

Competitive 1 mile handicap in the offing here and once again, I'm siding with My Freedom to land the spoils. Saeed Bin Suroor's 3 year old colt was only beaten by a lack of experience & know-how when succumbing to a well-handicapped type last time out in a 19 runner handicap at Newmarket. I backed him that day (well-backed from 7's into 9/2) and despite traveling like a dream to take up proceedings, he ran around violently under pressure, giving up many lengths in the process before going on to lose the race in a head-bobbing finish. He's up 4lbs in the ratings now and into a tougher race, but he should of won that comfortably and I feel he's still very, very well-handicapped off a mark of 90.

It's interesting that connections now decide to apply a visor to My Freedom and assuming it has a positive effect, any amount of improvement could be unlocked from within this 4-time raced youngster. He should be suited to having headgear on board and hopefully it will negate the few quirks that he seems to have, although I'd put his recent performance down to inexperience more than anything. Regardless, the way he travels through his races would make him competitive in sprint but he stayed on so well last twice that he's likely to continue to ply his trade over a mile, although he holds an entry for a race over 7f at Goodwood (and one over a mile).

There's no obvious pace here but he's suited to any kind of race and hopefully he'll prove to be the best horse in the race, as I suspect that he is. I think he's got any amount of improvement left and could develop into a very smart type (lowly Group races if he's not ruined). Saeed Bin Suroor was having a poor time of it this season but results have picked up well of late and he's having plenty of winners again. He comes down to Ascot with My Freedom being his only representative and I've a strong feeling that they'll be righting the wrongs of last time out. Slower ground will not be a hindrance either and as it stands, ground conditions are ideal. He's a very good price at 5/1 and I'm convinced that the short-priced favourite, Albaasil, has a tough task to defy a 10lb rise in the weights, even though he won nicely on quick ground last time out. The Godolphin runner should be closer in price to that animal and therefore he's worth a medium stake. Everything is set up for him to run another big race and I'd be surprised if he doesn't go one better here.

x PyRo

3:50 Ascot - Dubai Dynamo - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (PaddyPower - 5 places)

No fewer than 24 runners are currently set to go to post for this competitive 7 furlong handicap and whilst it's probably best to leave the race well alone, Ruth Carr's Dubai Dynamo could be worth a small each-way bet. This talented 6 year old has been on the go a lot this year, running no fewer than 12 races since seasonal debut in March. He must hold his conditioning very well to run so often and he is holding his form remarkably well also. From his last 8 runs, he has won twice (off 77 & 85), finished second on 4 occasions (83, 83, 91, 91) and finished third once, last time out off this mark of 95. That was over a mile on a stiff track and I feel that's too testing for him, so the step back to 7f will be ideal (run well here before too).

Whilst today's race is somewhat tougher than that of what he has faced of late, he has confirmed he's still in good form and could benefit for having a big-field to run through (seems to like running through struggling horses). Dubai Dynamo also won a handicap off a 1lb lower mark last year and although it was a weaker race with regards to grade, the second placed horse has improved to no end, last seen finishing a game second in a Group 3 contest. I don't think it would be a huge shock to see Ruth Carr's charge run another solid race and everything will be run to suit. It will take a career-best effort to land the spoils, but he's in rude health and may be up to doing exactly that.

The opposition are very strong, with course-specialist Striking Spirit holding solid claims if putting it all in. I'll be cheering him on if my fellow is nowhere to be seen but once again, it'll be tough for him not to find at least one too good. Plenty of others towards the head of the market should go well and whilst it'll be tough for Dubai Dynamo to win this, he's very talented and his potent turn of foot always leaves him in with a chance. He'll have to be in tip-top shape to land the spoils but 33/1 is too big and the chances of him landing a place are a lot better than that. Jimmy Fortune hops on board and there's no better man for the job. Ruth Carr's stable-form is a bit worrying of late, as they're not hitting the net like earlier in the year but she's bound to have this fellow spot on and hopefully he'll outrun his price-tag. Small each-way stakes, as it's pretty much guesswork in a race like this.

x PyRo

Small write ups from here on in. Half-asleep but most of the study is done thank God!

2:15 Newmarket - Demolition - 2pts @ 12/1 (Boylesports)

Another tough contest to solve but Demolition looked like a horse to keep an eye on when making his seasonal debut in the John Smith's Cup at York a couple of weeks ago. On the face of it, Richard Fahey's 7 year old didn't perform too well, as he was 12 lengths behind the winner in 16th place. However, that doesn't tell the story as under the hands of Tom Eaves, the former Noel Wilson inmate was traveling sweetly alongside the rail when everyone else was rowing along. He just couldn't get a gap to go through on a couple of occasions and even when after losing places to be switched to the other side of the field, he still couldn't get a run. In the end, he was unable to give anymore and wasn't given a hard time.

With that run under his belt and fitness likely to improve, Demolition can bounce back to form in what is a much weaker race. The ground will be ideal today and whilst he hasn't got any track experience, the stiff Newmarket July track is taken to suit him wonderfully. It has been a while since he has won but he performed very well in defeat last year off similar marks to what he faces today. There should be a nice win in this fellow and with Lee Topliss taking off a valuable 3lbs, a big run can be expected. Taqleed would be the main worry, as he's potentially a handicap good-thing when coming back to himself. I just don't think that he offers as much value as the Richard Fahey runner and that's who I'm going to side with. Small win stakes but it's still one who could and should run a big race.

x PyRo

3:20 Newmarket - Swiss Dream - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes - 4 places)

David Elsworth has his yard in good heart lately and his 3 year old filly, Swiss Dream, was one I noted as being potentially useful a while back. Whilst she disappointed slightly when sent off a well-backed 6/1 favourite in a similarly hot C&D handicap last time out, the race just wasn't run to suit those coming from off the pace. Usually she's a trailblazing front-runner and the switch to reserved tactics cost her any chance last time out. The performance wasn't that bad though, as she was just 3½ lengths off the pace in 8th (of 18) and with either a change of tactics or the pace collapsing here, she should go well.

20 runners are set to go to post and as all the races before, it's not an easy one to call. However, the manner of Swiss Dream's win at the Rowley course in May was very impressive and with stiff tracks clearly being her strong point, her penultimate performance was most impressive. She lined out in the 20 runner Bond Tyres Stakes at York and finished a gallant 1½ length 4th. That track wasn't taken to suit her so I feel the effort can be marked up significantly. It was also off the same mark that she runs off here and it's most certainly a winnable mark. The ground shouldn't be an issue and with some luck in running, she should make the frame at least. 12/1 is a decent price and I'll play small each-way stakes. There are dangers galore though, so anything could happen.

LightningBolt

You've probably been thanked before but they're some great write ups. Only started following this log the last while, makes for some great reading!

x PyRo

Cheers LB, much appreciated. Getting a bit lazy tonight though but hopefully there'll be some positive results to come. Usually do well on Saturdays but today's a minefield. Due a bad one too. Who knows though!

Final bet.

3:40 York - Entitled - 3pts @ 9/1 (WillHill)

Yet another big-field handicap to solve and whilst it's hard to predict how things will pan out, Sir Michael Stoute could have a very lively contender in the shape of a 4 year old filly, Entitled. She was a fairly modest 3 year old and only had one win to her name, an impressive 6 length win over 7f at Kempton, albeit in a maiden. The opposition weren't up to much that day and given that she was a 4/11 shot, that result was probably expected. She returned to race over a mile on her seasonal debut and despite being well-backed, she just didn't perform to her best.

I'd imagine that the trip was too far on that occasion and that proved to be the case as she won impressively over this C&D when dropped back to sprinting on her penultimate start. Entitled won that race off an 8lb lower mark in a much worse contest but the way she completed the job was quite impressive and I feel that she's a filly going places. Last time out, over 6f at Pontefract, things just didn't go her way and the ground was possibly too quick also. She was only 1½ lengths off the pace in 4th, so it wasn't a bad performance considering she was trapped wide and couldn't find anything up the hill.

The return to this track will suit and slower ground is yet another positive. A very useful 3lb claimer takes over in the saddle and with bottom weight to contend with, I think victory could be on that cards once more. They'll go a good gallop upfront and her finishing kick should come into play on this much easier track, as it was completely missing last time out. Whether she's good enough is another thing but I think she is and 9/1 represents value. I suspect that she'll be subject to strong support and for once, Sir Michael Stoute looks to have a runner that's overpriced. She's unexposed as a sprinter, unexposed in the main and seems to have plenty of talent. I think she should be hovering around the 5/1-6/1 mark and I'll play medium stakes.

budgemook

Been away since July 7th so haven't even looked at this thread (how's it been going btw?). Back today and decided to follow to the letter. Best of luck

SteelyDanJalapeno

Placed, Nice

skeleton_boy

Boom!

naughto

swiss dreams wins thank u pyro have not had a winner in ages,will have some money for galway now

PEACEBROTHER

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D