PyRo's Horse Bets.

Derek!

x PyRo wrote: »

The vast majority aren't any more. They were at the start.

I punt on Betfair all the time - the only reason I use bookie prices here is for posting up the night before and it's simple to keep track of records.

Ah I see what you mean that would of been my next question about if you use Betfair.
Thanks for clearin that up

mailburner

x PyRo wrote: »

The vast majority aren't any more.

i doubt ill ever be good enough for one bookie to limit my bets or
close an account but if i do it'll be the proudest day of my gambling life

i plan to follow you blind at the start of the next flat season though (if you're still doing it of course)
as i just don't have the time to spend hours study and watching
racing anymore and it's not being going that well lately on the horsey front
was just my timing and luck when i backed sirvino ew and not the
other two :pac:

x PyRo

Feels good for a while and then it gets annoying. Can't even be arsed to set up any more accounts with bookies I haven't signed up with (have/had accounts with all oddschecker listed bookies and Ladbrokes). For me, getting limited nothing to do with the stakes or anything - I'm not a gigantic staking punter who they should be desperate to get rid of.

I just play for fun and because I love the game. Quite annoying that they can't hack losing a few quid to the odd punter. A select couple will still lay me a decent bet though but Betfair's so handy.

The bookies would of been only too delighted to take my bets during the National Hunt season. :pac:

Fingers crossed that the winners will keep coming if you start to follow mate - would hate to lose anyone money.

Typical that you missed the other couple and got on board the loser! :-(

Thought he was going to be involved at one stage but racing out wide and having to come wide to get a run made him empty quite quick. Frustrating but them's the breaks.

---

Will have the stats update posted soon.

mailburner

part and parcel of this craic
you have to take the good with the bad and if people follow
you then they have a lot to be happy about
if i choose the wrong ones then it tough s**t on my part.
I only lose what i can afford to anyway and don't go chasing.
fair play to you win or lose or anybody for posting up on
a site like this knowing people will follow but most folk on
the gambling forum won't go abusing lads if they post a
load of losers either (unlike one site id love to mention)

anyway, for what's its worth i've won a lot more backing dux
and canford the last time you've tipped them with dux being
the only decent bet ive had on since then but well in profit and
i was very happy to be put off goldi that time i can tell you.

very small bet for me anyway on sirvino and shumoos one of the
few of yours i backed in the past few weeks but that was after
i planned to back sea moon but backed out when it drifted which
annoyed me so much.

Always glad to see other folk winning when i'm not on anyway
we punters need the money a whole lot more and you've given
many folk an edge here which they wouldn't have otherwise.

keep up the good work sir

x PyRo

Completely get you mate, it's all a game of give and take. Patience is the key I feel and thank God I've plenty of it. You'd want to if you're going to sit down and spend a few hours on a C4 Handicap at Catterick. :pac: I actually love that track though!

The whole "abuse the poster" when they're going through a bad streak is terrible. I've seen it on a few other sites and really felt bad for the people it happened to. Completely out of order and thank God I've never had any of that, or else my confidence would be shot.

At one stage during this flat season I literally posted 49 losers in a row over 5 weeks (loads placed at big prices mind) and didn't get anything but support. All of that was after coming off the back of an awful NH season and knowing plenty of folk who follow me from posts here and elsewhere.

It's absolutely brilliant the way people on here conduct themselves and treat others like they'd want to be treated if in the same situation. I'm delighted that it has reaped rewards now too. Once again showing that patience is key and I also found out where I was going wrong during that spell (backing outsiders all the time and not taking certain things into account).

Having your own thread and posting thoughts for the world to see is also a massive incentive to do better. If it wasn't for this forum and another one I'm on, I wouldn't know much about this game at all (now I want to spend my working life in the industry!). I'm only 20 and I've got a few job offers from repeatedly writing crap for the last year. :pac: Some difference between now and when I started this thread. Hadn't a bulls notion back then and just C&P'd write-ups from Timeform, adding in a little bit every now and again! How things have changed! It's some buzz though, makes all the effort worth it, especially when I can take out a few quid and go on the lash at the end of the week. :pac:

Long may it continue and hopefully there's an ocean of winners to come yet! Cheers for the comments mate and the same to everyone else too.

mailburner

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm only 20

20? :eek:
jesus christ!


ah well, i'd have guessed you would have been at this
that many years alone.
never in a million years would i have guessed you were 19years
younger than myself

good luck if you decide to take up any of those job offers.

x PyRo

haha, I get that reaction quite a bit! I never even seen a horse race until about 2 years ago, let alone had a clue about it. I've learned a fair bit but there's so much to learn still. One of the best games out there in the world imo, whether it be the racing side of it or the gambling side. I prefer trying to solve the puzzle though, so I get my buzz from both equally. It's bloody brilliant! Especially in times like this when I'd have nothing else to do otherwise. Job prospects in Leitrim aren't exactly good. :-(

Might be taking one of the jobs over in England so if anything happens I'll post it up. I'll still be allowed to post on here anyways. Cheers for the luck, will need it if I've to move away from here. I'm the ultimate home-bird!

3ndahalfof6

x PyRo wrote: »

haha, I get that reaction quite a bit! I never even seen a horse race until about 2 years ago, let alone had a clue about it. I've learned a fair bit but there's so much to learn still. One of the best games out there in the world imo, whether it be the racing side of it or the gambling side. I prefer trying to solve the puzzle though, so I get my buzz from both equally. It's bloody brilliant! Especially in times like this when I'd have nothing else to do otherwise. Job prospects in Leitrim aren't exactly good. :-(

Might be taking one of the jobs over in England so if anything happens I'll post it up. I'll still be allowed to post on here anyways. Cheers for the luck, will need it if I've to move away from here. I'm the ultimate home-bird!

It is probably a good thing your not at it long, your mind is not poisoned,

I think its great your learning something which could offer you work plus you actually like it,

I do believe there is a way of picking certain winners (which includes the good price places) but I think doing it your way applying yourself to it may be a way to see stuff others wont,

having some brains helps to, your write ups are very insightful, although I dont back every time you post your picks (there are times I dont get to check) I will try to do everything you post up from tomorrow, small stakes, it will be very interesting to see how it goes by this time next year,

I think you will get the jump season under control sooner rather that later,

I do believe there is a lot more to factor in at this time of the year, I to will not back Irish jump meetings its just stupid how you can have 6 horses in a 12 horse race all at 10/1, plus the other things that were mentioned,

good luck with the job offers sounds great, onwards and upwards good sir.

x PyRo

Cheers mate, completely agree. Too many people are brought into things to learn it via the way of the sheep. When I came into this I knew sweet fúck all. I find that learning things from scratch by yourself (by reading a lot of opinions and working it from there) and learning from mistakes is the only way to become truly good at something. I wouldn't be able to list out the mistakes I've made when making a selection because there would be hundreds and hundreds (although hindsight is wonderful). Obviously it's impossible to be right all of the time - I struggle to be right 15% of the time but if the odds are in your favour for that 15%, you can't be beaten.

I just can't believe how people (not here) can - for example - back a horse at short odds that won last time out when it contains something of a similar scenario to the following; exposed handicapper ran previously at Musselburgh (sharp track) over a mile, has C&D form, went and sluiced in on favoured ground.

Punters (tricked by odds-compilers! :pac:) latch onto him next time out at Beverley over the same trip on slightly different ground - but not his favoured surface. He's inevitably beaten because he doesn't go well on stiff tracks and never has, nor does he have his ground and he's carrying a penalty. How can people back these horses?!

People complain that the game's bent etc, etc. But most people are just oblivious to what they're actually punting on (understandable if you're new to the game - not so much after numerous years). It's something I learned quick enough but I know guys punting on this game for years and years and they haven't a bulls notion what they're at.

Anyways, enough rambling - got to get these stats up. :pac: Cheers for the kind words mate.

x PyRo

The final day of the Ebor meeting proved to be a decent one indeed. Lechevalier Choisi ran a cracking race to finish 3rd in a competitive Listed contest and if it wasn't for acting up in the parade ring, he could of done even better. Eddie Ahern gave him a fine front-running ride and having set a good pace throughout, he stayed on strongly to the line - only worn down by a couple of fast-finishers. The first time visor helped him improve on his recent career-best effort and this horse could have a nice win in him when returned to Ireland. He went off at 33/1 in the end and the profit was +7.25pts from a 1pt e/w stake. Can't complain.

Apache was subject to quite strong support, eventually going off at 17/2. It was evident from the off that he just wouldn't settle down and certainly over-raced for at least a mile. He made eye-catching progress under the guidance of Joesph O'Brien and even hit the front with a couple of furlongs to go. I suspect that his early exertions took their toll and he was gathered in fairly easily, although he did keep on to finish in 3rd place also. Once this animal learns to relax in his races he'll be a very good stayer and I'm convinced there's more to come. They could even wait with him for a bit longer as he seemed to stop to nothing when getting into the lead, although - as previously mentioned - his free-running style certainly didn't help him. +3.00pts from a 1.50pt e/w bet, decent.

Sirvino was the most disappointing of the trio, eventually trailing home in 15th place in the Ebor handicap. He was caught wide throughout his race and possibly saw too much daylight. Also, he had to come very wide in the straight to get into a position to attack and this wasn't ideal at all. It wasn't until the final couple of furlongs that he was completely beaten off and I'm convinced that he'll get the trip when things go for him mid-race. Although I now suspect that he'll be dropping back to 1m 4f to contest the softer ground handicaps towards the end of the season. Poor effort based on the strict result of it all but he's still an interesting one in my opinion.

+8.25pts on a solid day.

The Ebor meeting provided a total profit of +68.63pts with 2 winners and 3 further places from 12 bets. The ROI was 221% and it was quite possibly my best 4 punting days ever.

Stat Attack -

Overall Bank - 434.12pts (+334.12pts)

2011 Flat Stats -

Profit - +220.33pts

Bets - 187
Wins - 22
Placed - 42
Win SR - 11.7%
Staked - 497.00pts
Returned - 717.33pts
ROI - +44.30%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

July Stats -

Profit - +32.53pts

Bets - 35
Wins - 5
Placed - 7
Win SR - 14%
Staked - 85.00pts
Returned - 117.53pts
ROI - +38.2%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

August Stats -

Profit - +62.63pts

Bets - 15
Wins - 2
Placed - 4
Win SR - 13.3%
Staked - 37.00pts
Returned - 99.63pts
ROI - +169.2%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

This is really exceeding anything I thought was possible for me to achieve. If I can keep a 44% ROI going until the end of the season then I'll be very happy indeed! Also shows that strike-rate means sweet f' all.

.... reading that how I felt was much like the commentary on Maradonna's 2nd goal against England, different class :cool:

x PyRo

haha, wouldn't go that far now. :pac: Do you want to see the NH stats?! Times like this are brilliant. Times like that, not so much. :-(

Derek!

This is a point I have to make
Pyro you put so much time into your picks and you win so much money for people.
And since it's there choice to follow you or not, I dont get why you feel you have to apologise to people if you dont have any winners.

x PyRo

Cheers dude, I get you but it's just the nature of the beast I suppose!

Times like this make it hard for anyone to have any cash and I'd just hate to lose any for people. Some may hop on board the train for one day, lose, and then miss out on a good day the next time. This is a long-term venture for me so I'd prefer if other people who were following viewed it as such too. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey!

I will try to quit it though, I need to be more heartless to succeed. :pac:

x PyRo

Spreadsheet attached. Make sure you're wearing goggles.

ft9

Hero that is al!!!l

Derek!

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers dude, I get you but it's just the nature of the beast I suppose!

Times like this make it hard for anyone to have any cash and I'd just hate to lose any for people. Some may hop on board the train for one day, lose, and then miss out on a good day the next time. This is a long-term venture for me so I'd prefer if other people who were following viewed it as such too. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey!

I will try to quit it though, I need to be more heartless to succeed. :pac:

Your right there, we all appreciate your hard work though win or lose.
That's the nature of the game, if it was all win win it wouldn't be called gamblin.
If only it was that easy

ft9

x PyRo wrote: »

+220.33pts[/COLOR]

Ha Ha!!!!

Amigomenor

Well done on your recent success.

you put a lot of work into your analysis and have a lot of followers. At this point maybe you should set up your own tipping service and make a few quid extra.

Soarer

Amigomenor wrote: »

Well done on your recent success.

you put a lot of work into your analysis and have a lot of followers. At this point maybe you should set up your own tipping service and make a few quid extra.

Ignore this post!

stingerro

Soarer wrote: »

Ignore this post!

Seconded.

restingpilgrim

I am sure we are all grateful to you for sharing your hard work and conclusions with us. A lot of people do not appreciate the hours that go into making a selection. I must say for a young man you have a very good understanding that many factors effect how a horse will run, if you persevere I am sure this will come to your national hunt betting, you may not realise that the errors you feel that you made with national hunt may have helped with your selections on the flat this year. If you have the chance then it is a good idea to work for atr,racing post etc. This will helped widen your understanding of different factors in being a winning gambler. It will also mean you have an income to contribute to your living costs as there is a lot of pressure on trying to live and bet off your bankroll. It also means that you can be paid for your studying.

Many professional gamblers work 70-80 hours a week sometimes just to come to the conclusion that the bookmakers have everything priced up correctly and there is no bet to be had that week.

I suggest you try and specialise in a certain area even within the type of races you are good at be it handicaps , group races or sellers. I remember one guy called the bag man who used to specialise in novice hurdles.

I also suggest you read Steve Palmers "Diary of a Gambler" which used to be published in the post every sunday. It has now been published as a book. Steve is great at golf but this will teach you a lot at "leakage" ie betting for the sake of it and on areas you are not so good on, as well as a bit about how not to manage a bankroll.

I really wish you well in your future endeavours as many people who get a living from horseracing do not appreciate how lucky they are to be involved at all.

x PyRo

Cheers for all the comments lads, really appreciate it.

RP, thanks for the advice. I'll try and get my hands on that book too. I'll be going through the spreadsheet at the end of the season and posting detailed results of where I do well and where I don't. Should be interesting and I'd imagine handicaps over a mile or less are my strongest betting area. Always seem to have most of my winners from them.

---

3:30 Hamilton - Lil Ella - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365)

This is a complete shot in the dark and is possibly a waste of a couple of points. However, Lil Ella looks very interesting on some of her previous Irish form and could well bounce back to form now that she's tackling a stiff track again having run over speed orientated tracks last twice. This cheaply purchased 4 year old was hammered on both occasions, beaten a total of 43 lengths - but that doesn't really tell the whole story. Both races were fairly stop-start, muddling affairs which turned into sprints as the fields turned for home. This just doesn't suit an animal like her and with a better gallop being likely here, we could see a much improved effort.

It's quite possible that Lil Ella is just regressive and not up to much nowadays, as she has shown little - including over hurdles - since joining the Patrick Holmes stable last December. However, she was subject to immensely strong support on her hurdling debut for the new yard, having been punted from 12/1 into 6/1 in a very short space of time before the off. Her jumping let her down and her next couple of outings over jumps were no better. I'd imagine that she was showing something to be well-backed that day (unless someone was playing a trick), even though it was all in vain.

Lil Ella was given a number of months off before returning to race over 1m 4f at York (last month) and having been easy to back in a 7 runner claimer, she ran accordingly. It wasn't a run void of promise though, as she wasn't beaten off until the race turned into a sprint with a few furlongs to go. It's also possible that a lack of any recent outing was against her, even though she won first time up as a 3 year old. It was a similar story next time out, as they went slow early on and blasted off after they turned for home. In the end, she trailed home in second last position and disappointed, but speed tracks just aren't her thing and since that race the handicapper has dropped her another 8lbs - which is an obvious help.

Lil Ella is now 11lbs below her Irish handicap win (race wasn't run to suit, effort can be marked up) at the fairly testing Sligo track and with the return to a track like Hamilton being a massive plus, I think she could run well. She also came to hand later on in the season during both of her 2 & 3 year old campaigns so now may be the time to start following her. The yard don't have too many horses but Patrick Holmes seems to be able to train 'em and has managed 12/1 and 14/1 winners from his only 7 runners since July. He makes a near 400 mile round trip (first visit to track) to run this filly and hopefully it's with the intent of causing a shock. Also, it's 9 days since she last ran, so how she'll take the short gap between races is an unknown - her race fitness should be improved at least.

The in-form and extremely useful Daniel Tudhope is booked (very average jockey on last twice), so that can only be seen as a positive. The trip should be no problem for the horse, the track is ideal and although the ground is a slight worry (would like it softer), I'll take my chances as the odds are huge. She's not a winner waiting to happen or anything and could well run a shocker, but much more is in her favour today than on her only couple of runs this season, so I'll happily have minimal each-way stakes at the massive price on offer. She's also taking a drop in grade, which is another plus. The opposition really aren't much use and I'd probably take the 13/2 about Artisan if I was going to back a shorter priced one. However, it's the sort of race that could throw up a shock and this animal has talent to show when she's back to her best, so hopefully it'll be today.

x PyRo

Crap day of racing ahead. Can't find anything else and the only one running for me is a 50/1 shot. :pac:

thesandeman

Typical! Just when I put my few bob on Unknown Rebel yourself and lonesome stick up two others in same race lol.
Think a couple of combo f/cs are in order. Hope Hugh doesnt arrive with another in the morning :-o

x PyRo

haha, Hugh is bound to wade in with a max bet now. :pac:

Mine is a surefire winner...... >_>

<_<

>_>

restingpilgrim

The Steve Palmer Book is called Born to Punt : My Betting Year

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

Spreadsheet attached. Make sure you're wearing goggles.

That's my insomnia cured!:D

magser2

x PyRo wrote: »

Crap day of racing ahead. Can't find anything else and the only one running for me is a 50/1 shot. :pac:

Watch out for Cantor: 4.45 Kempton. Backed in from 20/1 to 8/1
Worth a small wager.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Crap day of racing ahead. ........

Indeed, spent a few hours looking at it last night, only came up with one fancy, not too inspired either, 4/1 ish 2nd fav