PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Pitiful effort. Knew she was done after a few furlongs.

Wasn't even fast enough to hold her racing position. Fillies are weird. She looked useful in Ireland, not so much anymore.

Vanbis

x pyro, great thread and i follow it like many others do. I don't always pick your selections, i'm more into the football and Manutd but its just great to see you pick winners and i just enjoy reading your write up and opinions. You've only being doing this you said two years and your only 20yrs old :eek:.

What i want to know and sorry if you've been asked already.

How and where did this all start for you?

FOXFISH1

Vanbis wrote: »

x pyro,

How and where did this all start for you?

....i'd like to know too please!:)

3ndahalfof6

asking that question is like looking for the holy grail.

x PyRo

Cheers Vanbis, don't really get the question though? If it's why did I get into horse racing then the answer was boredom during college! We had ATR on the TV and when I wasn't in college I'd spend all day watching it and taking notes. Just spiraled from there, plus I've an obsession with being good at things. Used to be the best online Pro Evo and Fifa player in Ireland at one stage, even reached #4 in the world for a long time. :pac: That took more effort than this does!

---

Lil Ella ran a poor race yesterday, although it was probably one expected of a horse going off at 66/1. She seems to have gone off the boil completely and I won't be hoping back on board until she shows a little more sparkle. It's quite possible that she will towards the end of the season when the soft ground comes out to play and ensures she'll be able to get her toe in, which seems to be needed. She's just very slow and couldn't go the gallop today at all. However, more efforts like that will see her exceptionally well handicapped and these fillies can come back at any time, so she's definitely one to consider when getting ideal conditions (soft ground, stiff track, 10f).

-2.00pts on the day.

3:00 Leicester - Brave Dream - 2pts @ 11/1 (WillHill)

Kevin Ryan is a hard man to catch right and although Brave Dream won on his penultimate start (usually not my type of horse to back), he looks to have another win in him soon when getting ideal conditions. Today, he should have exactly that, as the straight 6f track at Leicester is the ideal place for this often strong-travelling front-runner. There's also a fair chance that he'll get the outright lead (doesn't need it but better for it) and although there should be plenty who will press the pace, he's got the raw speed to ensure that they will have a hard time getting past - especially at a track that favours those racing handy.

Brave Dream took advantage of a drop in the weights when scoring over this 6 furlong trip at Newmarket in July. The quick ground and stiff track played into his hands and he went on to score a shade easily having made all of the running in his group (beat his group by 2 lengths). The form of that race has been advertised since (2nd place won off 2lbs higher over this C&D) and Kevin Ryan's 3 year old looks to be the type of animal who could well defy his current rating of 66 (beaten a nose off 68 on AW last year) - 5lbs higher than when scoring that day. He has flopped at Pontefract since but between going off too fast in-front and racing around a bend, I don't think he had things to suit (race was also just a few days later, which may have been too much for him to take in).

Kevin Ryan has his yard in fine fettle this year (19% strike-rate) and makes a 250+ mile round trip to visit Leicester, a track where he boasts fine results. From a total of 141 runners, he's had 25 winners and a further 29 places. That's an impressive strike-rate of 18% and he shows a 35% return on investment also. Phillip Makin - who suffered an injury a few days ago - makes his return to the saddle and he's riding very well this year. He was on board this fellow last time out and should be an ideal partner for what is a fairly straight-forward animal. He only has a pair of rides at the course today (6-27 in past 5 years, 2-3 this year) and the other is an unraced 2 year old.

Some decent low-grade types line up in opposition but I feel that there could be another win in Brave Dream and he's overpriced at 11/1 here. The straight track plays to his strengths, the ground poses no threat and he's well drawn to attack. Small win stakes for me, as the price doesn't make it worthwhile to cut stakes in half to go each-way. He'll either get them on the stretch and trade low in-running or he'll be headed and drop out of contention with ease. Hopefully it's the former and he'll go on to land the spoils. Any sort of market support before the off would be a massive plus. 33/1 outsider Sairaam may be worth a quid each-way and would be the only other one I'd consider backing.

Vanbis

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers Vanbis, don't really get the question though? If it's why did I get into horse racing then the answer was boredom during college! We had ATR on the TV and when I wasn't in college I'd spend all day watching it and taking notes. Just spiraled from there, plus I've an obsession with being good at things. Used to be the best online Pro Evo and Fifa player in Ireland at one stage, even reached #4 in the world for a long time. :pac: That took more effort than this does!

I was just wondering how you started out with this, gambling and picking horses, your knowleadge is Unbelievable for someone so young.

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

33/1 outsider Sairaam may be worth a quid each-way and would be the only other one I'd consider backing.

Well worth reading your posts right to the very end!

x PyRo

Vanbis wrote: »

I was just wondering how you started out with this, gambling and picking horses, your knowleadge is Unbelievable for someone so young.

Pure boredom mate, not much else. Living in the back end of nowhere isn't exactly great fun so I need to find something to occupy my time with!

I used to punt on football (don't bother too often now, hardly worth the hassle) before I signed up here and once I joined boards and letsbet.ie I started to take more notice of the horses. Just began to watch, listen, read and learn about them from others and it just spiraled from there when I started this thread. I would of never managed to be profitable if I hadn't of started this thread. It's evident that I was quite clueless at the start and reading back on it brings out the face!

You'd be so surprised what posting selections in the open can do though, as it gave me the determination to improve because so many people were looking and replying, etc. That's why I love this place, I'd have very little prospects if it wasn't for it and hopefully I'll end up making a nice living in the industry at some stage (plenty of time for that though!).

The only way to learn is by listening to others and working your opinions around that until you can form your own from scratch. Now that I can, I try to spot different things that others don't take into account. There's so much missed in a race by the odds-compilers (probably intentionally, to lure in the mugs) that allow people - who don't take the simplistic view (the tiny minority) - to profit. The only thing is that they'll always win (from the group of punters, not necessarily from the individual) because they just cut people off and the percentages are in their favour anyways. It's still possible to beat the layers though, if you put in the hard graft.

People bang on about the sport being bent and the "non-triers" ruining it but that's exactly what helps me. I think it's relatively easy to spot one who hasn't been putting it all in of late and they're often very overpriced and possibly well handicapped, depending on the situation (plus horses need so many things to suit in order to win, so I try find out what they need). Spotting things that aren't considered all the time is the easiest way to find nice-priced winners - but I'll leave exactly what up to others to figure out!

I spent about 3 hours on that race yesterday and although it didn't pay off, I know that I'll get it to do exactly that enough times to make a sizable amount of money, on the flat at least. Even look at my strike-rate, it's low and my ROI is still high. The game's not just about the winners, it's about backing severely overpriced horses, getting the percentages to be in your favour over the long-term and knowing when to be confident and having faith in your own convictions.

I get frustrated when I go on long losing runs (as has been evident here a few times!), mostly because of my dislike of losing others money. I've no emotional attachment to the money that I'm putting on and when I lose a bet, I find it very easy to just write it off and move on to the next one - without chasing, which is why most people are losing punters. I also never back anything that's not posted here, so that helps to keep my discipline intact. It did take me quite a while to get used of having no-bet days and avoid having 5-6 bets a day, but that all comes in time and now it's easy.

I'm rambling now about something that you're not even asking about! Time and patience is all you need. If someone wants to have a good knowledge of the game then they need to sit down and read, watch and listen. Learn from others about the basics and then get down to the hard slog of trying to find an edge. I'm just good at race-reading and seeing how things will pan out, even though it didn't work out that way today.

I don't know everything about the sport, nor about horses and I'd say I'm about 20% of the way to where I want to be. In another few years, I'd love to have the NH puzzle solved and improve my flat punting too. Then I want to oust Tom Segal at the RP! Sounds a bit stupid but what's the point in living without aims and goals. I want to be the best and will hopefully get there some day, even though it'll be tough. It's all a game though and you just have to beat the opponent - the layers. So far they can't beat me! :pac: Apart from when the horses have to jump things. :-(

TL;DR - I started gambling and picking out horses because I had nothing else to do with my time. :pac:

Soarer wrote: »

Well worth reading your posts right to the very end!

Sometimes it is mate! Brave Dream would of done a lot better if they didn't go off so bloody fast. Didn't think the other one would trail-blaze like that and it ruined my bet. He was spent by the time they were halfway through the rising ground. The hold-up horses had a massive advantage then, hence why Sairaam done so well despite being outpaced in rear early on (she should be kept to sprinting on stiff tracks). Hard to get it all right I suppose.

Roll on tomorrow, will hopefully find something good.

sonnky

U my son are a god.

x PyRo

:pac: Not sure if serious!

---

Brave Dream was sent out with the intention of making the running but quickly got taken on and as a result, they done too much too early. He was a spent force halfway up the hill and dropped away into mid-div. Disappointing effort but he'll be interesting again when it looks as if he'll have his own way up front. 6f on fast ground at a stiff track is what's needed and I'll be backing him again.

The 33/1 outsider that I mentioned, Sairaam, finished second and could be worth siding with again if kept to sprinting.

-2.00pts on the day.

3:20 Catterick - Dubara Reef - 1pt @ 16/1 (Bet365)

I'm not a big fan of staying races but they can throw up some nice priced winners, and Dubara Reef could well be another. This previously progressive 4 year old won no fewer than 5 races last year, improving from a mark of 46 to eventually race off 71. Whilst some of his efforts this year have left a lot to be desired, he has tackled some useful contests. Today, he takes the drop back to Class 5 company for the first time since a solid second place back in May and it could pay dividends.

As a result of a few disappointing efforts in a row, Dubara Reef is now looking very well handicapped. He drops 1lb below his last winning mark of 66 for the first time since achieving victory on his final start as a 3 year old. That was at this course over 1m 6f and although he is running over a trip just shy of 2 miles today, there's no problem in that regard. The ground should be alright as it stands, although he seems at his best on softer ground, even though he has won - and run well - when tackling genuinely fast ground.

Silvestre De Sousa hops back on board for the first time since Dubara Reef was edged out of it at Nottingham (fast ground) on his last attempt at C5 level and having won on board him twice before, he's an ideal partner for this fellow. He's a fairly straightforward animal in terms of how he'll just bowl along towards the head of affairs but he does need a lot of coaxing when coming under a ride and there's no better man than De Sousa to get the most out of a horse. He also has an exceptional record at this very tricky track and so does the horses trainer, Paul Green. His horses are in good form and if he has managed to get this strapping animal back to his previous levels, he should go close despite being a big price. Minimum win stakes for me, as it's a tough race to solve but this one could be the answer.

x PyRo

3:50 Catterick - Fast Shot - 3pts @ 10/3 (Boylesports)

Connections of the talented, tough and progressive Fast Shot seem to have their eyes on a tilt at the Ayr Gold Cup (or one of the consolation races) in a few weeks and if he's to get into that race, he's going to have to win a couple of contests in order to line up. Trained by Tim Easterby, this relatively lightly-raced 3 year old is going places having won on 3 of his 7 outings this year and placing on the other 4 occasions. He's as consistent as they come and although all of his wins have come over 6 furlongs, the step up to 7f at this speedy track will suit without doubt. The only worry is the possibly loose ground, but I'll take my chances.

The form of Fast Shot's most recent win is interesting. On his penultimate start - over 6 furlongs at Doncaster - Tim Easterby's charge ran out a 1 length winner, beating York Glory (2nd off 78) and Shesastar (3rd off 75). The former has went on to land handicaps off mark of 83 & 88 in his following pair of runs (drop to minimum trip helped), the most recent being an ultra-impressive victory and that of one who could tackle Listed races in time. Shesastar also won on her next outing, off a mark of 79. The step up to 7f on softer ground done the trick with her and although I don't like taking form too literally, it doesn't look half-bad at all.

Fast Shot has run since that impressive victory and produced a solid staying-on 2nd behind a former Michael Stoute trained, unexposed sprinter over 6f at the stiff Leicester track. That was a good effort to come here on the back of and I'm certain there's more to come, especially over an easy 7 furlongs. Tim Easterby has campaigned this fellow exceptionally well and he seems to have found another very winnable opportunity for a horse that only cost 1,000gns as a foal. He also has a victory to his name over this track and previous course experience is very handy at a place like Catterick.

With a decent pace likely and most things being to suit, Fast Shot looks very well priced at 10/3. It's normally a price I wouldn't be too keen to play but I think he should be favourite (around 7/4 would be fair) and hopefully he will justify that thought. The yard are in good form, the horse is in great form and the opposition aren't overly talented, plus none have experience of the track. All going well, David Allen will hold him in behind the pace and get him motoring with a couple of furlongs to go - then he'll run down the leaders inside the final furlong in his typically gritty and determined style. Hopefully he does, as I've played medium stakes and really expect this fellow to oblige. Maverick (8/1) could put up the sternest test if he can settle over this longer trip (although he possibly needs a stiffer test).

Nulty

Dubara Reef caught my eye immediately.

Paul Green has had 3 in a row run well for him and like you say, Dubara Reef isn't badly handicapped. The trainer has a 29% strike rate at 13f+ on the turf in 5 years but of course that's mostly due to Dubara Reef.

x PyRo

Nice one, thought I might be alone in supporting him! He's so dodgy this year but I think there have been excuses. Drops back to his level too, which is something I like. Not sure he's up to competing against the better C4 animals, let alone away from the "weird" tracks!

It's hard on a horse like him to constantly chase contrasting paces over those distances, not sure he's able to give his best all the time (love this type of horse, usually overpriced because they fade so badly when not getting things to suit). Hopefully he will today but just played it safe in case he bombs out.

Nice return for a tiny stake if he does win though. Fingers crossed mate.

thesandeman

DR into 7/8s in the morning. Somebodys watching you.

restingpilgrim

Favourite was withdrawn at around 7/4 mark hence DR coming in so much

thesandeman

Ah! Didnt spot that. Will have to pull out my rule 4 guide if it wins. I can never remember what the deductions are.

x PyRo

Dubara was awful.

Fast Shot ran a cracker, just got nosed out of it in the end - finishing second. Heartbreaking but hopefully one will go in our favour soon. Can't wait until Saturday, they're the money making days.

Oh the joys of being a gambler!

Roll on tomorrow.

Killed

Don't think the jock gave him the best of rides, seemed late getting the full drive on.:(

x PyRo

Gave him a great ride I thought, can't have any complaints in that regard. Just run down by a decent animal with a handy 7lbs off his back. Must keep an eye out on this Justin Newman fellow, seems like he can ride quite well already.

Killed

Maybe a bit harsh but that was my impression watching it live. After watching the replay I still think he was a bit slow switching the whip and maybe lost a bit of momentum. That said I've seen an awful lot of worse rides.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

Spreadsheet attached. Make sure you're wearing goggles.

Jaysus, no formulae???

x PyRo

What? It's just basic, I've no idea how to do anything else..

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

What? It's just basic, I've no idea how to do anything else..

Ah yeah, that's fine. It just saves you time and effort in the long run is all!

Yoshie.

I know you probably get asked this every 5 pages.
But how much have you made in the years of punting?
Guess you're gunna answer in 'points' so I won't really get an answer haha

x PyRo

I'd well believe it dude, just don't know how to do anything bar enter the figures! Will try find out sometime but flat out at the moment, for once. :pac:

Edit : Yoshie, couldn't say in monetary terms! Prefer to keep that stuff private to be honest.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

I'd well believe it dude, just don't know how to do anything bar enter the figures! Will try find out sometime but flat out at the moment, for once. :pac:

Edit : Yoshie, couldn't say in monetary terms! Prefer to keep that stuff private to be honest.

Drop me a PM if you ever think there's something you'd like to know! I use them all the time, always learning though!

x PyRo

Nice one, I'll definitely take you up on that offer soon. Thanks squire! :-)

The_Kew_Tour

I cant believe your only 20:eek:

I honestly taught you were mid 30's at least...Even though I am not biggest horse man(love Cheltenham otherwise only done few your tips) but your knowledge seems be fantastic..

You are right about the strike rate though it matters nothing. I much rather have one winner at 50/1 from 50 attempts, then 20 winners from 50 at Evens..

Its all about finding value.. My Sports are Football and Golf mainly. Your going to lose more then win(SR wise) but once you stay disciplined you have half a chance...

Keep up great work...

thesandeman

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I cant believe your only 20:eek:

You're slightly behind the times Kew.
Our Pyro hit the big 21 last night!

mailburner

a belated happy birthday pyro

hope the head isn't too bad :pac: