PyRo's Horse Bets.

The_Kew_Tour

Happy Birthday PyRo

Year older and wiser and more winners;)

3ndahalfof6

congrats Pyro, your legal to do loads of stuff now, I hope your not thinking of leaving us for the bright lights of space, (there only wee small stars)

CriticEyes

happy birthday!

ft9

Happy Birthday Pyro!!!

Enjoy the Cider

pbowenroe

OP, very cool thread. You've probably been asked these questions a million times but I searched the thread and couldn't find anything.

Anyway, do you ever bet in race?

Do you read betting newspapers e.g Racing Post?

Were there any books you read to improve your betting? Can you list them if so?

Do you have several different accounts online? (I assume you do)

Has an online bookies ever banned you for winning too much?

I understand if you don't want to answer all those questions lol.

And it looks like it was your birthday yesterday so, happy birthday

sundancekid91

Well Pyro!I'm just new to this site and was wondering what websites/information you use when analyzing races?Happy Birthday btw

mailburner

i've a feeling you'd have been on dux earlier again pyro

really fancied him and it did look pretty good about 2f out but
got worn down close home with the rest well beaten
needless to say i was on it :pac:

x PyRo

Cheers for the birthday wishes. My poor head suffered yesterday after 3 days and nights on the cider! :-( Taking a break from the boozing for a few months, so I won't be disappearing every now and again. :pac:

To the lads who asked things, I'll get back to ye tomorrow evening all going well. :-)

---

Close but no cigar on the last day of posting. Fast Shot ran a cracker in defeat, eventually going down by the smallest of margins despite having looked home and hosed at one stage. He kept going to the line but the winner just had that little bit more and managed to get up in the closing stages. Tim Easterby's charge has more to come over this 7f trip and he'll remain of interest for a while yet, although he's so consistent that it'll be tough to get any sort of price about him in contests that he's up to winning. We'll see how it goes anyways and he's one who could have some tasty prizes in him as a 4 year old.

Dubara Reef was well-supported but showed little of his old zest and never got involved. He may prefer racing handy in behind slower gallops and it just wasn't to be his day. He'll bounce back though, as he's a horse with plenty of talent and is looking very well handicapped now.

-4.00pts on the day.

Relatively brief posts today as I'm awful tired!

4:10 Ripon - Pleasant Day - 1.50pts e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports)

It usually pays dividends to race handy around Ripon but with a decent pace being likely over this trip (just shy of 1m 2f), I'm thinking that those coming from behind will be favoured. The tactically versatile Pleasant Day looks to be a lively contender in his attempt to give Richard Fahey his first win in this race since '02 and I'd imagine this is a race they consider their talented 4 year old to have a great chance of winning. Recent stable form would have to be a worry, as they're not firing as they can, but I'll take my chances as the price is a few points too big as it stands.

Pleasant Day comes here on the back of a trio of very uninspiring runs, but he has had excuses and always finds those big-field, C2 handicaps all too much. He seems to be at his best when attempting to pull off weight-carrying performances against inferior rivals and that's what he's back doing for the first time since landing a decent handicap at this course in June. That was off a 1lb lower mark and over a furlong shorter (needed every yard to get up) than the trip he faces today, so with the extra distance and ground conditions to suit, he's most certainly not handicapped out of things.

Pleasant Day is a former Brian Meehan inmate and just lost out by a short-head in a soft-ground 7f Group 3 contest as a juvenile, proving that he's a very talented individual (rated 104 after). Like plenty of good juveniles, he struggled throughout his 3 year old campaign (only ran 4 times though) as a result of that fine Group performance and he performed modestly, although excuses for a couple of the runs are easily found. He seems to be taking his racing well since joining this yard and I'd imagine this race has been the target for a while. Paul Hanagan is riding fairly well of late and rides this course as well as any, with 43 course wins coming his way over the years. Pleasant Day should run a good race here and 12/1 looks a fine each-way price for him. Small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll run a good race now that he's back to a level he can most certainly compete at. It's a competitive race though, so anything could happen.

x PyRo

2:40 Epsom - Clear Praise - 2pts @ 10/1 (Boylesports)

Plenty can be given a chance in this competitive sprint but Clear Praise is going to come good on turf some day soon and I intend to be on board the money train. Simon Dow is a tricky man to get right, as he's often lining up his animals for a punt and that could be the case here once again. His 4 year old is a very unexposed sort, having only run on 13 occasions and just 5 times on turf. He's won 3 times in his short career to date, twice at Kempton (in h'caps over this 6f trip, showing a nice turn of foot on both occasions) and once at Lingfield (in a poor maiden over 5f). Regardless of his wins coming on polytrack, he should have no problems getting off the mark on turf fairly soon.

Today, Clear Praise lines up to run off a mark of 75 and it is one that he should be more than capable of defying. He ran once over C&D last month when finishing 3½ lengths off the pace in 4th place and that came off a 5lb higher mark in which he was given a fairly "easy" ride (bare form of that race tying in with others here should mean he's much shorter than 10/1). He took a keen hold in what was a modestly run race for the trip (suited those handy, he was held-up) and didn't look 100% happy on the track, although it shouldn't be an issue now (ran decent race over 5f at this course since - too slow for trip).

With conditions to suit and a solid pace being very likely, I expect to see the in-form Hayley Turner coming late and fast in an attempt to get this fellow off the mark on turf at the sixth attempt. Clear Praise has the talent to win this and 10/1 looks much too big. It's a tricky race though, so small win stakes is all I'll play on him (price doesn't make each-way worth it at 1/5 of the odds for a place). He's priced based on a poor run at Newmarket last time out and there were excuses, along with the track not being the ideal place for him. I think Epsom will suit and now that he's got previous experience of the track - both being solid efforts - we can expect a good run. He's well handicapped, goes on the ground and looks very overpriced. Hopefully he'll oblige.

x PyRo

Christ, betting on horses can be depressing at times.

Clear Praise, to put it nicely, wasn't intended to have his day today.

Pleasant Day looked to have a place wrapped up before losing both 2nd & 3rd in the final 100 yards, missing out on a place by a neck.

The joys of it all.

Derek!

Dont worry Pyro youl get them next time

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

Christ, betting on horses can be depressing at times.

Clear Praise, to put it nicely, wasn't intended to have his day today.

Pleasant Day looked to have a place wrapped up before losing both 2nd & 3rd in the final 100 yards, missing out on a place by a neck.

The joys of it all.

I'm perfectly capable of losing money on the horses all by myself, thanks very much. I don't need you help!

x PyRo

We're all capable of that. :pac:

Don't think Hanagan was overly good in the finish on PD, seemed to stand up in his irons and just went about it all half-arsed, never got behind his horse. May have held onto the place otherwise I feel, or maybe he had nothing else to give. No harm though, there'll be other days when my selection will get a brilliant ride.

On we go. Doubtful that there'll be anything tomorrow, shocking stuff in the offing.

restingpilgrim

Hanagan has an awful habit i,f he cannot win a race ,of not riding his hardest for a place which is a problem for e/w and placepot punters.

:mad:

x PyRo

No joy at all. Clear Praise was very poor, eventually trailing home in last position. They switched to prominent tactics today and I don't think it suits him at all, plus I doubt today was the intended day given how he drifted on the exchange before the off. There's definitely a win in this fellow sometime soon and I'll be keeping an eye out to see where they head in the near future.

Pleasant Day was fairly well supported and just missed out on a place by a neck, not helped by some pretty modest riding from Paul Hanagan in the closing stages. Maybe the horse had nothing left to give but it's still pretty annoying. At least it represented a return to form for this useful animal and he'll continue to be of interest on the next occasion that he's tackling opposition who are rated inferior to him. Yesterdays race suited those coming from off the pace and he did best of the prominent racers, so I feel the effort can be marked up, despite it being an unfavourable result!

-5.00pts on the day, disappointing. Roll on Saturday!

Caught for time, so today's only write-up will be fairly short.

3:50 Folkstone - Osiris Way - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Plenty of disappointing, modest types line out for this 5f sprint but a return to form from Osiris Way would see him in with an exceptional chance here and make an 8/1 price-tag look much too big. Whether Patrick Chamings' 9 year old veteran can bounce back is debatable, as he seems to have lost his way of late, but I'll take my chances. He's often one that goes well fresh and with a 4 week break since a below-par effort at Newbury, I'm hopeful that he'll be freshened up sufficiently.

Osiris Way's opening couple of efforts showed that he still retains plenty of his old ability and with the track taken to be the ideal place for him, a good run could be on the cards if he shows his old sparkle. He's exceptionally well handicapped off a mark of 80 (below last winning mark for first time) and he's taking a drop down to a 0-80 contest for the first time since winning in June of '07. That's a big plus, as if he's on his game he could blow these out of the water, although that's no sure thing at all.

The more than capable and in-form John Fahy takes the ride and a valuable 3lbs off his back, so yet more positives are easily found. With a race run to suit, conditions to suit, a track to suit and the likelihood that he'll eventually bounce back into the winners enclosure, I think 8/1 is too big against this opposition. He's a risky proposition though, so small win stakes are all I'll play. Any race that Go Nani Go is favourite for is not the best of contests and the Patrick Chamings (trainer 2-8 at track last 5 years, 1-1 this year, only runner today) trained runner will hopefully take advantage of his falling mark.

x PyRo

Ugggggh. Well backed into 7/2 (from 8's, would of been a small R4), shows plenty of dash, drops out of contention. Ran well for a long time though, just burned himself out trying to chase the winner who made all of the running. He'll get another couple of lbs from the h'capper and we'll get him eventually.

Gambled on Simon Dow (Clear Praise's trainer) runner wins. Hate that guy. He's impossible to work out.

Looking forward to Saturday, due a good day and usually it's easier to have them when better animals are running.

3ndahalfof6

ul sir, it was a tough 1

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Dubara was awful.

Fast Shot ran a cracker, just got nosed out of it in the end - finishing second. Heartbreaking but hopefully one will go in our favour soon. Can't wait until Saturday, they're the money making days.

Oh the joys of being a gambler!

Roll on tomorrow.

to be honest on the form if had I wasn't overly convinced that 7f would suit fast shot but your thoughts were spot on. He's running in the 6.35 and is priced at 7 to 4 apologies for the off topic in your thread but some of your followers may be interested, I have cash on him myself tbh. WIth a 7f run in the bag and off the same mark it has a huge chance.


Backed into 11/8 and never looked like winning really.

x PyRo

If I had of been online I would of told you to tread carefully with him today. Carlisle is a fairly stiff track and I wasn't convinced it'd suit him at all, although the race was run wrong for him anyways (went too slow for half of the race and he needs to run after a true gallop).

He'll have more races in him at flatter, faster tracks. Also possible that racing so often is taking its toll on him.

Unlucky anyways but you'll get your money back from him, I'm 100% sure of that. :-)

bradlente

Been following the thread for a while now Pyro,Keep up the great work!

Especially impressed by the write ups,This man does his research:cool:

x PyRo

Cheers mate, happy enough with how things are going, bar the last few punting days.

---

Nothing for Thursday, very tough day to call anything, tougher than usual.

Would of backed Inetrobil (11/2) in the fillies' race at Salisbury if the Hannon one didn't look so good on debut, although it's hard to make head nor tail of that race either. Hannon's may need a rapid pace to run at and I'm not convinced she'll get that, nor am I convinced that the track is ideal. Too confusing, best to leave it alone and have the day off.

Back Friday, all going well. Will have the stats up too, August was a good month courtesy of Margot Did and Sea Moon.

x PyRo

Osiris Way disappointed on Wednesday, eventually finishing in last place. I don't think that's a true reflection of how he ran though, as he shaped very well mid-race and was beaten as a result of trying catch the winner who had made all of the running. The way in which Patrick Chamings' charge traveled was impressive and although the result was poor, he showed a lot more than in his previous few outings. He was also well-backed from 8's into 7/2, so he must be showing some of his old sparkle again. With his trio of better seasonal results coming over a stiffer 5 furlongs, it may pay to side with him again when returned to similar tracks.

-2.00pts on the day. August stats will be posted after Saturday's racing.

1:40 Haydock - Invincible Lad - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

10 runners line up for this competitive 5 furlong sprint and it's sure to be one run at a furious pace due to a large amount of front-runners lining up. All of this this will suit Dandy Nicholls' 7 year old - Invincible Lad - as he often does his best work late on after a strong pace collapses, which is likely to happen here. The main worry is that he won't be able to go the early pace, which happened last time out (softer ground and slow break not helping matters) but the price negates the risk and I'll take my chances.

Invincible Lad has run on 5 occasions since joining this yard for 13,000gns following an unsuccessful couple of years for Eric Alston. A few of his seasonal outings have been quite poor, but the other couple gave cause for plenty of optimism, not least when he finished a 2½ length 7th of 17 in a competitive handicap at Goodwood last month. Nicholls' charge was doing his best work late having found himself outpaced and with this track having less of an emphasis on raw speed, similar late work could lead to him having enough time to reel in the leaders. This race is also a fair bit weaker, which helps, and if he can up his game just a little bit more, I think he should run into a place at least.

It's 2 years to the month since Invincible Lad last tasted victory and although animals with this profile always carries a risk, there's no man like Dandy Nicholls to coax them back to form. He has a very well-handicapped horse on his hands and with conditions and a race run to suit, victory could be achieved for the first time in a long time. The form of the yard would be a worry, as they've only had 1 winner from the last 49 runners, but with another 9 finishing in the places, that stat may not tell the whole story.

Adrian Nicholls wouldn't lead a duck to water, so I would of preferred to see a different jockey on board but he has a great record at the track and hopefully he can add to it here. At the end of the day, this horse is a 20/1 shot but he's talented, should have conditions to suit (bar rain), will have a race to suit and has a handicap mark that he'll eventually take advantage of. Backing any of the front-runners is a massive risk and with a bit of luck, Invincible Lad will come at them late and fast to land the spoils. Small each-way stakes though, as it's a risky bet on a horse that could come last. Hopefully he won't though.

x PyRo

3:10 Haydock - Ryan Style - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Another relatively low-confidence bet here but Ryan Style could well outrun his price-tag if things pan out to suit. With the draw often proving an important factor over sprint trips at Haydock, Lisa Williamson's relatively lightly-raced 5 year old has a nice sit in stall 8 and could well take advantage if they go a good clip up front. It seems likely that they will and if the wonderfully talented Silvestre De Sousa can get a nice sit in behind the pace and some luck in-running, this previous C&D winner could add to his tally.

Ryan Style landed that C&D contest in impressive fashion when scoring by 1¾ lengths off a 4lb lower mark back in June, proving he stayed a truly run 6f in the process (had looked like he wouldn't). The way in which he traveled and picked up was very good and it was in the manner of a horse who could get better still. All 3 of his turf wins have come on genuinely quick ground, so the good ground today makes it a bit of a risk but given how he ran at Epsom over 5f (shaping as if in need of 6f) on softer going, I don't think it's a big worry at all. He just needs things to fall right and if they do, 12/1 will look like a big price.

The opposition are no mugs at all and if La Zamora was drawn higher, I'd be pulling out big stakes. She has also shortened significantly in the market and having missed the 14's that were around earlier, I can't take the 13/2 about her now. The price may have moved because she's being tipped up left, right and centre - including by the RP Spotlight people - so I imagine it's not an overnight David Barron influenced price move! She's a big danger if not being inconvenienced by the draw but I just can't take the price that's there now. A small stake-saver wouldn't be a bad idea though.

Others of interest include Rio Cobolo (16/1) and Jobe (14/1) but I'm sticking with Lisa Williamson and Silvestre De Sousa to do the business here. Small each-way stakes as it's a very tough race to call and many can be given a chance, but Ryan Style has shaped well last twice with excuses being easily made and I think he's got another win in him off this sort of mark, especially since he's only ran 17 times and may be open to further progression. Hopefully he'll go well and run into a place at least.

x PyRo

3:40 Haydock - Misplaced Fortune - 3pts @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

When Nigel Tinkler applies a visor on Misplaced Fortune, you should take notice. Her overall career record reads; 4 wins, 7 seconds and 7 thirds from 40 outings. With the visor on board, that record reads; 4 wins, 3 seconds and a third from just 10 runs, with the other two outings being solid efforts where she wasn't beaten further than 3 lengths. It seems to perk her up to no end and it seems a sign of intent that Nigel Tinkler has his 6 year old mare ready to win again.

Further cause for optimism can be gained from Misplaced Fortune's current handicap mark, as she's now rated 7lbs lower than her cracking effort in the Ayr Silver Cup last September (still higher than last winning mark mind). In that race, she finished a 2¾ length 3rd of 25 and even won the race on her side of the track, which was a great effort. She's only lined out on 3 occasions this year, the first being a solid effort in a race that she was expected to come on for and the other couple were in races where she was completely drawn out of the equation in big-field handicaps at speedy tracks (had to be held up both times, runs best from the front).

The return to a smaller field will suit and a sit in stall 7 gives her jockey, Dale Swift, numerous options. Swift was the man on board for that run at Ayr and he takes off a valuable 3lbs off her back, making her look weighted even better. He was also on board last time out for the first time since last year and I often see that as a positive thing (another tilt at Ayr on the mind, will need to win here). Misplaced Fortune now drops back to C4 level for the first time in a long time and if she's on her game, it'll take a very, very good horse to beat her off this rating. The race will be run to suit, the ground holds no fears and application of a visor seems a clear indication of the yards intent. Medium stakes for me and I wouldn't be surprised if she went off at around 3/1, which would be a true reflection of her chances here. Jarrow is one I'd be wary of and a stake saver on him isn't a bad idea either.

x PyRo

4:10 Haydock - Amitola - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill)

A tentative selection yet again but David Barron's Amitola could have a lively chance if she bounces back to form on the back of a 2 month lay-off. On the showings of her only couple of outings this year, she's got no chance but a fairly easy 7f should suit and her handicap mark of 87 should not prove to be insurmountable. This is the first time that she tackles this trip but she's bred to get it and if doing so, a big performance could be in the offing.

Last season - as a 3 year old - Amitola lined out on 5 occasions. Her only win came in a soft ground 6f handicap at the stiff Newmarket track and she showed a cracking attitude in the process. Her next - and last - outing of 2010 came in a Listed contest at the same track. Again, she battled on gamely and managed to finish a 1 length 3rd of 14, gaining valuable black-type in the process. It probably wasn't the best Listed contest about but she performed admirably and got within a length of the very useful winner (placed twice at Group 3 level since).

Some good animals line out in opposition today but if Amitola improves for the step up in trip and goes well fresh - as she has done in the past - there's every chance that she can go well. She's got a plum draw in stall 1 and that gives the talented Lee Newman plenty of options, as getting a prominent position on this filly is a necessity. With the Barron yard being in good form and this being a race that doesn't look beyond his useful filly, I'm hopeful that she can run into a place at least. She's only run on 9 occasions and it's more than likely that a rating of 87 is not the ceiling of her ability. 20/1 is much too big and I'll play small each-way stakes in the hope that she's primed and ready to attack. Any market support would be a big plus and it'd tempt me to put on larger stakes.

x PyRo

No more. If one doesn't win, I'll cry.

Looking forward to Saturday though, should be fun!

el_greco

x PyRo wrote: »

1:40 Haydock - Invincible Lad - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

Nice start Pyro, just half a length from pulling off a shocker!
Mad fluctuation on his odds... From mid 20's last night, to 12/1 this morning, up to almost 30/1 just before the race on Betfair. Traded at 80/1 in-running after the slow start!
Unfortunately I got the smaller odds...:mad:

x PyRo

Slow break cost him unfortunately. Can't be doing that over 5f, especially as he likes to sit right behind the pace. Annoying but them's the breaks. He ran a good one.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Where'd he finish? in work

x PyRo

2nd @ 20/1, beaten half a length.