PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Ryan Style 3rd, few more quid to the coffers. Solid effort, one to keep an eye on.

One of the others I liked, Rio Cobolo, finished 2nd at 20's. Jobe was crap.

Soarer

Big one next...best of luck!

Do you know if there was an odds adjustment ib the last race? My returns don't add up!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Where did Fabreze come from!

FOXFISH1

...he came from damn near last

x PyRo

FOXFISH1 wrote: »

...he came from damn near last

Edit : Woops, read your post wrong.

No good. :-( Didn't see the race, bloody internet went down at the time. Probably for the best. Will look in a min when it comes up on SportingLife.

Got the 3/1 price right, that's about it.

FOXFISH1

Yea Fabreze looked to be working very hard early in the race and i would never have given it any chance of being in the frame at the finish

x PyRo

I thought you said she came damn near last. :pac: With the net going off and a few more replies coming here I thought she had won. Still waiting for the replay to come up.

x PyRo

Just seen Misplaced Fortune. Pity she made her move down the middle of the track, the stands' side is much quicker and that's where the other 3 came from to pass her. Should of won that race and would of if she was racing on the other side.

Amitola went off at 20/1, quite ominous with Barron. She moved and traveled well though, finishing 5th in the end. Thought she'd grab a place but not to be. We'll get her some day, probably when she can get her toe in a bit.

Nothing lost, nothing gained on the day. Broke even.

Will hopefully make it up tomorrow with plenty of winners. Wishful thinking.

x PyRo

Another close day but no luck was to be found. Invincible Lad ran a solid race in finishing a half-length 2nd at a big price of 20/1 and he may have done even better if it wasn't for the combination of a slow start and a troubled passage forcing him to lose a bit of ground on the eventual winner. The race was set up for him and he ran very well. He remains of interest when getting his conditions and I'll be on board again, as this was a definite return to form and he's well-handicapped nowadays. Small profit from a place paying 1/5 of the price.

Ryan Style also ran a good race, finishing 3rd having been backed at 12/1. He couldn't go on in the closing stages but didn't have any chance of catching the winner regardless. There should be more races in him but I doubt I'll be on again, as he needs plenty to fall right in order to score.

Misplaced Fortune was a horse who I felt was worthy of a price-tag of around 3/1 and that's the price she went off, having been heavily supported in from 8/1 in the morning. She ran a solid race to finish 4th and looked the winner when coming with a menacing run but with her move being made in the center of the track, she faced a tough task of repelling those running alongside the stands' side, which is the fastest part of the track. Her run petered out and a trio of animals racing in a better position overtook her. It was a solid effort though and she'll be winning again soon, possibly at Ayr where she's likely to line up again.

Amitola ran well, showing up prominently before being one-paced in the closing stages of her first attempt at 7f. She needs the pace to collapse and with the winner having made-all, it was an impossible task and she faded into 5th position. She remains of interest for the coming weeks and The Barron will unlock the key to her again, possibly when tackling softer ground.

+/- 0pts on the day, nothing lost, nothing gained. Can't complain but it could of been different with some luck in-running.

Short write-ups for today, as there'll be plenty of bets. Kicking off with Ascot first.

3:15 Ascot - Palace Moon - 1.50pts e/w @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places)

Competitive 16-runner handicap in the offing here, with plenty in with a shout of landing the spoils. There are a couple of pace angles but not enough to ensure a very fast gallop, although I'd be hopeful that they'll go along at a good jog. With the ground being good, good-to-firm on the straight course, William Knight's talented 6 year old - Palace Moon - could have a very lively chance of upsetting the odds if rain doesn't arrive. The key to him is genuinely fast ground and if it happens to be like that come race time, I'd mark him down as being worthy of a single-figure price.

Things haven't went to plan this year but Palace Moon is very talented on his day and as a result of disappointing so far this year, he's now exceptionally well-handicapped off a mark of 100. In 2010, he placed from a 5lb higher mark in the Wokingham Stakes over 6f at this course (placed off same mark in similarly tough race straight after, over this trip at stiff Newmarket track) and that was despite being set a stiff task mid-race (held-up until very late). The extra furlong at this course will suit and regardless of how the race is run, he should be suited by it. It's just a case of whether he gets his ground and it's a possibility, making his current 33/1 price-tag look completely mental. Rain could arrive and he could have no chance, but the price outweighs the risk.

This season, Palace Moon hasn't really had conditions to suit (set stiff tracks a Group level on soft ground, seemed to need opening run previous to that - traveled well though), bar last time out and he just didn't sparkle when William Knight's animals weren't going well. They're not exactly in great form now either but this horse is very well-treated and is due to come-to-hand at some stage soon. At his best, no animal could live with him in this race off his current mark - assuming conditions were right - and to price him up as a 33/1 shot just seems wrong. If things pan out during the run, I expect to see a very good performance and hopefully he'll get conditions to suit. It's a big risk though, so I'm just playing small/medium each-way stakes, but he could be a very lively outsider. Alan Bailey's Lowther would be my next-best, but he's only 11/1. He's worthy of a small bet though.

thesandeman

Already gone for Eton Rifles in that one so supplemented with yours.
Hope 16 stay in but that never happens :-(

x PyRo

Won't happen here either.

3:45 Ascot - Seelo - 2pts @ 11/1 (Bet365)

John Gosden has his string in fine order and the talented Seelo could add to his recent tally of winners by landing the spoils in this competitive mile-and-a-half handicap. He's an unexposed, relentless-galloping colt who seems to need to turn it on from the front and although more reserved tactics were used last twice, he still showed up as an animal who has plenty of ability. This is a tricky race though and anything could happen but at a price of 11/1 (12's non-BOG), he's worth siding with here.

Seelo has only lined out on 6 occasions to date (further progression extremely likely), winning a maiden first time up and a handicap by 7 lengths off a mark of 80 at the sharp, stiff Pontefract track. Wedged in-between those outings was a 2nd place behind Leger fancy Census over 1m 3f at Newbury and I'm not fully convinced that that track is totally to his liking, plus he was inexperienced and seems to be the type who's going to improve for his racing. Overall, it's decent form and with his last two outings being eye-catching - yet unspectacular - I think we're getting a price that's much too big for an animal with undoubted ability.

It just seems like he needs to be ridden to grind them into the floor (lacks a turn of pace, gallops forever) and I'm hopeful that Nicky Mackay will be given those instructions today, especially considering he's well-drawn in stall number 3. Current favourite, Fulgur, finished a full 8 lengths ahead of my selection when they faced off over 1m 2f at Newmarket in July but with this step up in trip being combined with a 12lb swing in the weights favouring John Gosden's Seelo, that form could be switched around here, thus making 11/1 look even bigger again. Other pieces of form give him a chance, including an unlucky-in-running 2 length 5th of 10 on his first attempt at this trip last time out. The return to faster ground could also suit and overall, the price is just too big. Tricky race though, so it's just small win stakes for this selection. Don't think it's worthwhile to stake-cut in order to go each-way. I'll take a chance!

x PyRo

Now to Haydock.

2:00 Haydock - Rainfall - 3pts @ 4/1 (Bet365)

It's clear as day that Godolphin's 4 year old filly, Rainfall, just wasn't right when making her debut for Saeed Bin Suroor and I fancy her to bounce back with a decisive success in a race filled with tricky animals. As a 3 year old, when trained by Mark Johnston, this talented animal climbed the ranks in impressive fashion. She landed the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on just her third outing and went on to place on a couple of occasions at Group 1 level. A return to anything like her old self would see her win this and I feel that she should be a much shorter priced favourite than she currently is.

Rainfall made her seasonal reappearance - and debut for Godolphin - over a mile at Goodwood, a notoriously awkward track. Whilst she seemed to move alright through the race, she didn't pick up at all and was eventually eased down before coming home in last place. Connections revealed that she had injured herself a few days before the race and that's more than likely what caused such a poor showing from a very good animal. I'm willing to write that race completely off and in doing so, I expect to see her win here.

Rainfall has had a couple of months off and should be capable of bouncing back to her best, plus it's also interesting that she still holds Group 1 & 2 entries for races coming later this month. She must be showing something to have retained entries in those contests and there's bound to be enough in the tank to win this despite being fresh from a lay-off. Conditions will be perfect regardless of rain or shine, as she seems to go on any ground. The return to this type of track should also suit and she's likely to get a good toe into the race, although I'd imagine that there'd be no problems if she had to make the running herself. Overall, I think 4/1 is much too big and personally, I reckon half that price would represent her realistic chance. Medium stakes for me and hopefully she'll go well. There's very little reason as to why she shouldn't.

x PyRo

2:30 Haydock - Deauville Flyer - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Tim Easterby's Deauville Flyer is an old favourite of mine and I'm confident that he's more than capable of getting involved in what is yet another competitive handicap, this time over 1m 6f. It's quite possibly that this 22-time raced 5 year old needs further, as he's one who loves a stamina sapping race. However, with 17 animals lining out here, they're likely to go a good clip and turn it into a race where the real stayers come out on top. Assuming they do, the current price-tag of 10/1 about him may provide a nice bit of value.

In recent outings, Deauville Flyer hasn't managed to win but in all of his runs this season, he has proved to be the model of consistency and is rarely beaten too far. Due to that, he's still going up the weights but his fine effort over 2 miles at York (very well-backed) showed that he's still going the right way and it actually rated as a career-best outing, especially impressive considering the race was run all wrong for him. If getting a solid pace to run at, there's no doubting that he'll get involved at some stage, it just depends on whether he doesn't find a few too good as is often the case nowadays.

The first-time blinkers look to be an interesting manouver and if they can have a positive effect, it could coax out the extra improvement needed to land a contest of this nature, especially as he has looked awkward on occasion. Tim Easterby's yard aren't in great form but Graham Gibbons hops on board the consistent Deauville Flyer for the first time and he was 2 from 4 when riding for this yard last month. He's one of my favourite jockeys and could be in for a great day with a Group 1 ride on a favourite coming later on, so what better way to wind up for that by landing the spoils here! Overall, this horse should be given one more chance and with course, conditions (suited by forecast rain) and how the race will be run all being to suit, he could get off the mark for this season at the lucky number 7th attempt. Small win stakes again, as it's an awfully tough race.

CriticEyes

Thanks Pyro for the tips. I have them all done in a lucky 15 and all singles. Best of luck tomorrow dude.

x PyRo

Nice one mate, best of luck.

3:00 Haydock - Cheveton - 1.50pts e/w @ 14/1 (Boylesports)

This is the time of year to start backing Richard Price's Cheveton and he looks to have a good chance of running well if readied on the back of a couple of months off the track. It's clear that Haydock's 5f is a good place for this talented 7 year old, as he has won on all 3 occasions that he has visited this C&D, including this race in '09 off a 4lb higher mark and another victory over Hoof It (favourite for Group 1 after this race) from a 5lb higher mark.

Cut in the ground is needed and with heavy rain apparently on the way, he may have conditions to suit and that'll make this price look massive. He's also well-positioned in stall 9 and should have a race run to suit, although he is tactically versatile. Cheveton's showings this year have left a lot to be desired but this happens year in, year out, as he's always one to come good towards the end of the campaigns when the slower ground comes out to play. It's a risk backing him now as the rain hasn't come yet (if it doesn't - abort, abort!) but it's one worth taking as it looks likely to arrive in the morning, then we'll see his price plummet.

The opposition are no mugs here but the favourite, Zero Money, is 3/1 despite never having tackled the minimum trip in his 17 race career. It will probably suit but I think the price is much too short to get involved with. He's also a fast ground horse, so his chances could be scuppered by rain. A few others come into the conclusion but Cheveton is very much overpriced at 14/1 and can run into a place at the very least, even if he doesn't get a whole lot of cut in the ground. He's well-handicapped, loves the track and will get a race run to suit. Hopefully he'll go well and it's small/medium each-way stakes for me.

thesandeman

Jeez Pyro are you on the Red Bull or something :-D

Never spotted The Chev myself.
Lads are 12/1 on Seelo btw.

x PyRo

I'm high on wine! :pac: One more to come in the sprint, will be up soon. Spent ages doing these during the day, bloody wrecked and I've a fortune on the line. Could be beautiful, could be horrific. Who knows!

Didn't notice Seelo's price until I had him posted, my bad!

x PyRo

3:35 Haydock - Dalghar - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Betfred)

I like taking a big-priced animals in the sprints and Dalghar fits the bill here, as he's crazily overpriced at 50/1. He's often his own worst enemy, caused by acting up in the parade ring and this has happened every time he has raced since joining the Andrew Balding stable. However, with the application of a hood being capable of bringing this formerly very useful French-trained 5 year old back to his best, I think he's being completely overlooked here despite having the ability needed to win this contest.

Dalghar also has the benefit of the highest draw in stall 16 and this track seems the type of place that could bring out the best in him. It's not long ago that he was sent off as a well-backed 8/1 shot in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and again, he blew his chance by being coltish and acting the maggot in the parade ring. If he can calm down beforehand and bowl along in front from a perfect draw, I think he's got a chance of causing a shock here and giving David Probert a massive victory to add to his record.

He's 50/1 for a reason but they're reasons I'm willing to overlook and take a small each-way punt on him making the frame. He was previously rated 117 and that'd mark him down as the joint-fourth best animal in the race (if he was at his best), so it's not like he's a complete no-hoper if learning how to relax again. Andrew Balding is great at coaxing them back to form and if he can do that here, his animal has a chance. None of the others really interest me and I'd be tempted by Hoof It if he wasn't so short in the betting. Rain would be a welcomed addition for my selection and hopefully it comes - as if it does, and he behaves beforehand - 10/1 would be a realistic representation of his chances. Small each-way bet though, as he's as risky as they come.

thesandeman

Couldnt resist a 3cent L63 on top of the singles.
Imagine the views here at quarter to 4 if the first five come in while im waitin for my 250k lol.

x PyRo

Best of luck Sandy but if that happens, I'll bite my own leg off! :pac: I'd be happy with Rainfall and one other winning, Palace Moon I suppose. Actually if I get my cash back and a bit more I'll be happy. Due a bad Saturday though, so it could be this one. Hope not.

thesandeman

I think Cheveton will be there. Dont know how it missed him when I was doing my own study.
Thats prob the disadvantage of doing it on the phone.

x PyRo

Hope so, really need the rain to come though. If it does, I could see him being 6/1-ish. Would be fair if it was GS ground.

Apologies in advance if they all get beaten into oblivion.

FOXFISH1

Dalghar - BET365 offering 1/3 1,2,3 for e/w, odds only 40/1 tho, never ever seen 1/3 odds for the place before...

restingpilgrim

Rainfall did not seem to finish out her race again today. Want to watch again but seemed to travel into the race nicely and a furlong and half out looked like it might win if it picked up.

x PyRo

May of been in need of the run as she just seemed to tire, traveled sweetly though. Oh the joys!

x PyRo

Deauville was smashed into when he was still going quite well there. Got hammered again when he was beat but the first one done him.

Might of made the frame otherwise, who knows.

restingpilgrim

Chinned again !! Cheverton unlucky there for a place.

x PyRo

Cheveton done for a place in the final 20 yards. Typical of how things are going. Ran a cracker considering he hates that ground.

Will be interesting at Ayr again if he goes back in a few weeks. Really well handicapped at the moment and this is his time of year.

restingpilgrim

Also had a dodgy start according to the commentary but will have to watch again too see what happened.

x PyRo

He seemed to get away alright, will watch again after.

They went way too slow for Palace Moon, thought he wouldn't have any problems with a relatively slow pace (didn't think it'd be like that) but he traveled well and found nothing. Went off at around 55.0 on Betfair and that told the story.

Worst Saturday in a long, long time. Thank God June, July and August were so good or I'd be fed up by now. Awful.