PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

That was the longest, drawn-out torture I've ever went through. Glad it's over.

Seelo made it worse, as I thought he was coming through with a winning run and he just lacked the turn of foot to kick on when it mattered. Finished 4th.

Absolutely awful day, apologies to anyone who lost money. Will hopefully make up for it soon.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Not to worry! made it back and more on the football

The_Kew_Tour

x PyRo wrote: »

That was the longest, drawn-out torture I've ever went through. Glad it's over.

Seelo made it worse, as I thought he was coming through with a winning run and he just lacked the turn of foot to kick on when it mattered. Finished 4th.

Absolutely awful day, apologies to anyone who lost money. Will hopefully make up for it soon.

dont back horses but have interest in your runners...

bad day but that happens, just one those days:(

restingpilgrim

You have nothing to apologise for. A lot of people have made a few quid over the summer because of your tips. Believe me you will have a lot more frustrating days than this if you stick with it but hopefully this will be outweighed by many more great days.

It is just a shame that all the work involved resulted in a no result today.

Watched the start of chevertons race and he lost a couple of lengths at the start as he reared up and was back in the stalls when they opened although he would have struggled to beat the winner anyway.

sundancekid91

Well Pyro!could you or anyone else just quickly explain columns J,M and N on your spreadsheet?thanks

x PyRo

Howdy mate,

J is profit/loss from the selection at the starting price.

M is the running profit/loss at advised prices and N is the running profit/loss at the starting price.

Nulty

Cheveton is back and ready to win I see!?

I had no luck with him last year :rolleyes: Fair play for sticking with him.

Ayr Silver Cup on the cards again?

x PyRo

Seems like it mate, shaped so well today on ground that he doesn't move too nicely on. Good to see that he's got his spark still, I'll always like him! Paid for many a pint last year.

I'd imagine they'll head for that Bronze Cup race again. Would really fancy him if there's sufficient cut in the ground, although he won it on fairly decent ground last year. So well handicapped at the moment.

Pissed off that I didn't get my place off him today! Would of made a shocking day just a little less shocking.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Seems like it mate, shaped so well today on ground that he doesn't move too nicely on. Good to see that he's got his spark still, I'll always like him! Paid for many a pint last year.

I'd imagine they'll head for that Bronze Cup race again. Would really fancy him if there's sufficient cut in the ground, although he won it on fairly decent ground last year. So well handicapped at the moment.

Pissed off that I didn't get my place off him today! Would of made a shocking day just a little less shocking.

Tell me about it, didn't have a sparkler today either.

The Bronze Cup was it? He won''t get in at this stage to any of them. 91 is the cut off for the Bronze cup at this moment in the 4th dimension unless they introduce a copper and nickel cup :pac:

x PyRo

T'was surely. :pac: There'll be enough coming out for him to get in I'd say, hopefully anyways. Reckon he was out to win today and all, trainer was hoping for rain like myself! Sometimes it'd be much smarter to wait until I know what the ground's actually like. :pac: We live and learn!

Soarer

How do I unsubscribe?

x PyRo

By sending me one BILLION dollars. :pac:

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Can't be bothered going into too much detail about those I backed on Saturday, as it all ended in tears.

Rainfall shaped well for a long time before being one-paced. A drop back to 7f will suit her.

Deauville Flyer was hampered a couple of times, with the first one ruining his chance when he was still going fairly well. The ground was probably a bit lively and he's one for another day.

Cheveton ran a cracker on ground he hates and is most certainly one to keep an eye on. Dalghar also shaped well in the big Group 1 sprint and when the rain comes out, he'll go well. The hood seemed to help him to behave for once and hopefully it'll continue to do so in the future. He's got loads of talent.

At Ascot, Palace Moon was useless, not helped by a slow gallop. Seelo ran a cracker and seems to be still going the right way, although his lack of a finishing kick is always going to hinder his chances of winning. He's game though and connections will figure him out soon.

-15.00pts on the day and one of my worst punting days in a long time. Hopefully things will change around soon, as I've dropped 30 points since Margot Did landed the Nunthorpe a fortnight ago. It's just one of those barren spells I suppose.

1:50 York - Satanic Beat - 2.50pts @ 4/1 (Bet365)

10 runners are set to go to post for this Nursery and Satanic Beat looks likely to give it a good shot. Jedd O'Keeffe's talented juvenile has run well on all of his 3 career outings to date. He placed first time up at Newcastle over an inadequate 5 furlongs (ran green but only beaten ¾ of a length) and stepped up on that performance when he lined out at this track over 6f in July. Having been outpaced during the race, he stayed on stoutly under pressure to win going away in what was a decent little contest.

That win entitled him to run off a mark of 80 a few weeks later and again, he lined up over 6f at York, this time on slightly slower ground. He didn't come under pressure as easily as before but once he was asked for an effort, all the doors were closed and he just couldn't get through (hampered also). Eventually Tom Queally switched him and he finished well to come a 2 length 5th of 16, a short-head behind the similarly fast-finishing On The Hoof, who's the current 5/2 favourite for this race (gambled overnight from 6/1). O'Keffee's charge is 3lbs better off though and I reckon the step up to 7f is will suit him more that Mick Easterby's runner (who is bred to be a sprinter but shapes as if he'll get this trip - risky), so the prices have to be wrong on that basis.

Satanic Beat has quite a nice action so the current good ground won't hinder his chances and even if the rain comes, he shouldn't have a problem. Overall, he's probably double the price he should be an I'll play medium win stakes. I'd go in heavier if it wasn't for my dislike of juvenile races - as they're hard for me to call - but this fellow should be up to running a big race. He has a lot more to come and a mark of 80 should not inconvenience, it's just a matter of whether something in the field has a lot more in hand, which is possible but hopefully won't be the case. The yard are also in decent form with 3 winners and a second from their 13 runners in August.

x PyRo

3:30 York - Striking Spirit - 0.75pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365, 4 places)

A few things will need to go to plan in order to see Striking Spirit win this race and the first of those would be for the rain to stay well away from the York track. If it does, Tim Easterby's talented, speedy and often unlucky 6 year old could win for the first time since landing a big-field handicap over this C&D 2 years ago (off 2lb higher mark against inferior animals to that of which he faces today). With this sprint track often favouring those racing handy and a draw in stall 14 being a decent spot to sit, he could prove to be massively overpriced.

His recent form is most deceptive, as he's not a slower ground animal at all, even though his best run of the season came on soft ground at his beloved Ascot. At the Royal meeting, Striking Spirit tackled 7 furlongs for the first time in his career and along with that, encountered properly soft ground for only the second time. He ran a screamer (not sure how he did it!) from an exceptionally poor draw in stall 2 and would of been the winner if it hadn't of been for that. He actually beat the nearest challenger from the centre group by a full 6 lengths and it rates as a cracking effort. That track seems to bring him alive but he's running here off the same mark of 91 and it'd be a truly deserved success if he could land the spoils here.

Back to the recent form - Striking Spirit was either drawn wrong or unsuited by conditions on the majority of his outings this season. He got a decent draw last time out in the St Wilfred Stakes at Ripon but the good-to-soft ground wasn't to his liking and the first-time cheekpieces didn't help either, as he looked quite awkward and even drifted the whole way to the other side of the track when coming under pressure. I'll happily put a line through that run as it wasn't to suit, nor was it a true reflection of his abilities. His penultimate start was a similar story, as the good-to-soft ground at Ascot wasn't his optimum and although he shaped well for a long time, he just couldn't go on before fading (burned too much juice when trying to take over the running).

Overall, he's much better than what he has been showing of late and if the ground is decent he should run a good race. He's well-handicapped, very suited to this sort of track and more than capable of getting involved in what is effectively a 0-95 handicap. The talented John Fahy takes off a handy 3lbs from his claim and that looks to be an interesting move from connections. Striking Spirit is effectively running off a mark of 88, which is very workable and his lowest since winning at Ascot off 88 in May of '09 (when with David Nicholls). He could go very well and I'd play bigger stakes if quick ground was assured (will go in again if rain stays away). Very small each-way stakes for me but it'd be a nice return if he lands the spoils. Hopefully he will. 16/1 shot Johannes would be my next-best and may be worth a quid or two each-way.

x PyRo

4:30 York - Sunrise Safari - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill, 4 places)

20 runners are set to go to post for this contest and although there's so many lining up, it's not exactly an amazing contest with regards to the quality of the opposition. Therefore, I'm going to take a chance on Sunrise Safari to come good in a handicap for the first time since April of 2010 (won claimer on final start of that season). The betting would suggest that he's the second-string for the Richard Fahey yard but with the other being a perennial loser, I couldn't be having him despite the fact that Paul Hanagan hops back on board.

Sunrise Safari is now 8 years old and thoroughly exposed but this 7-time winner won a 6f handicap off a 6lb higher mark last year and looks well-treated here on a couple of his efforts this year. A ½ length defeat to the useful Jarrow at Hamilton a few starts ago is a good effort to rate his well-being on and I think this easier 7f may suit more than that stiff 6f. He has never won over this trip but remains unexposed over it, as he's only tackled 7f - or further - on 5 occasions.

There's no problems with him getting the trip as he showed on his outing before the Hamilton run when coming a 2 length 2nd over 7f 100y at Beverley, which is a stiff track that takes some getting. That wasn't a great contest but they were relatively small fields and this big-field is much more to his liking, as he often runs well in them and needs a solid toe into the race. Lee Topliss takes off 3lbs and he's an excellent jockey, plus he's effectively leaving this animal running off a mark of 75 - his lowest ever.

Sunrise Safari's Class 4 record reads 3 wins and 2 seconds from 10 runs and this race is anything but beyond his capabilities. I think 20/1 is a cracking each-way price and he's surely worth a small bet, despite him being tough to win with nowadays. He has everything to suit (bar an ocean of rain) and could outrun his price if on a going day (tends to be a moody so-and-so). It's actually such a poor race that I'd struggle to pick out another to back. They're all dodge-pots, but this exposed veteran has a squeak at a fancy price.

superfit7

hi,
where can i access profit/loss spreadsheet.
interested in following your tips . thanks

PatsyTyrrell

throw a cheeky tenner on Sunrise Safari 14/1 pp

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

[COLOR="blue"]3:30 York[/COLOR] - Striking Spirit - [COLOR="Red"]0.75pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365, 4 places)[/COLOR]

16/1 shot Johannes would be my next-best and may be worth a quid or two each-way.

I've said it before and I'll say it again...tis well worth reading your posts right to the end!
Got Johannes at 25/1 on Bet365. Pity I'm skint and only had a tenner e/w on him.

x PyRo

Nice one dude. Sometimes it's handy to back a couple in them tricky races, especially the outsiders.

Broke even today with Sunrise Safari finishing 3rd (backed at 20/1), ran a cracker. Satanic Beat was so well backed and would of won if he kept in a straight line, ended up coming 3rd too. Striking Spirit was poor, despised the ground and needs to race a lot handier. Probably sulked.

Frustrating run of form, plenty making the frame but none are winning. Just got to ride it out I suppose and look forward to the next winner. Hopefully it'll come soon.

Superfit, I'll post up an updated spreadsheet later tonight. Not the best time to start following I'd say, had a cracking last few months and the end of the flat season is really tough to get right (even though my best month last year was September, worst was October!), so who knows how it'll go from here on in. Hopeful of a few nice winners though. :-)

x PyRo

Frustration once again - mainly with Satanic Beat, as he threw away his chance by hanging to his left when coming to throw down a challenge to the eventual winner. He was well-backed, eventually going off as the 5/2 favourite and I thought he was coming with a winning run, but inexperience got the better of him. There's races to be won with him on softer ground this autumn and it'll be interesting to see where he heads next. I'll be on again, price dependent. Disappointing that he could only muster up 3rd place when he was obviously fancied to do the business, but them's the breaks.

Striking Spirit put in a poor performance at York, although it's easily forgiven as the ground wasn't in his favour at all. He's a very talented animal but rarely gets the opportunity to show his best for one reason or another. I'm keeping faith though and when he's out on fast ground next season, there'll be races to be won with him, especially now that he's so well handicapped.

Sunrise Safari was the only animal to return any money, as he finished 3rd having been backed each-way at 20/1. It was another solid run from this useful campaigner and there's a win in him yet, despite his advancing years. He was under pressure a fair way out but stuck to the task well and came home nicely, although he hadn't a hope of catching the winner. Good effort and for once, I can't complain!

+/- 0pts on the day. A winner would be welcomed!

4:50 Newcastle - Aegean Destiny - 0.50pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 4 places)

Quite an awful days racing ahead and there's only one catching the eye. 16 runners line out for this extended mile-and-a-half contest at Newcastle and although it's a shocking race with regards to quality (top-rated is a 62 animal), Aegean Destiny could be worth a few quid in the hope that she can gain her first win since September of '09 - achieved in a seller over 7 furlongs on just her fourth career outing. She's ultra-consistent though and rarely runs bad races, which is especially impressive considering the level she performs at.

Despite being on a long losing run, this 4 year old filly has finished 2nd on 5 of her subsequent 14 outings, showing that she has a certain amount of ability over various trips. Today, Aegean Destiny tackles the stiff Newcastle track for the first time and based on her penultimate outing at Leicester (stayed on strongly into 2nd in unsuitably run race over just shy of this trip), she could relish this stamina test. There's no problem with regards to her getting the bare trip, it's just that she needs quite a lot to fall her way mid-race in order to be competitive in the closing stages (often weak-finisher).

With so many runners in the field, a good pace to run at is a strong possibility and that will suit my selection for this contest. The slight ease in the ground is also a massive plus for John Mackie's charge and although she copes with quicker ground, these conditions seem to suit a lot more. Aegean Destiny is also dropping back into a C6 Handicap on turf for the first time in a long time and she has more than enough about her to get involved at this level. She's also nicely handicapped off a career-low mark of 54 and the capable Declan Cannon takes off another 3lbs. Overall, she's no sure thing to even run a decent race but with plenty being in her favour, she's worth taking a chance on. The opposition are of poor quality, so is she, and that's I'm playing very small each-way stakes.

Soarer

****ing beauty! Won hands down!

Went for a snakey point e/w, so happy out!

x PyRo

BOOM, sexy filly!

The small stakes always win.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Kids got mad skillz

Fowler87

Top man Pyro, great to see ya got a winner again! Had a small e/w on him

x PyRo

Cheers lads. Wouldn't you bloody know the smallest stake horse in a long time would win. :pac: Just glad to have a winner, more to come I hope.

Well done
Delighted for you, your losing streak wasn't at all bad though in fairness, but a run of losers can play on the mind more than a bit, especially when you are gambling in public, and of course you do have a following too.
I can sympathise with your feelings on the small stake falling on a winner, 'tis infinitely better than a big stake on a loser though :pac:

stiffler123

Thanks Pyro, was down to my last tenner and had 2.5 ew on it. Great pick. Now off to football betting with me:D

MyStubbleItches

Been looking here for a while and only started following lately, excellent picking man, nice way to get going again. I had a whole euro each way on, trying to build up my balance slowly!! I had it on at 14/1 yet it only paid out 15.75. Was there a rule 4 on it?

Soarer

Yup.

bradlente

Good man Pyro back in business.

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments folks, really appreciate it. :-) Still kicking myself for not putting more on, hindsight eh!

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Aegean Destiny ended her losing strike - and mine - by scoring a shade easily at Newcastle. The soft ground and stamina sapping, stiff track brought out the best in this previously frustrating filly and it was good to see her rewarded for her consistency. Always going fairly well throughout, John Mackie's charge took it up with a couple to go and outstayed the rest of them up the hill to win by over a couple of lengths. The opposition were very poor though, so she didn't achieve a whole lot.

I doubt she'll be one to follow up but who knows and I'd imagine she'd get a little bit further when getting similar ground conditions. Connections seem to be lining up a tilt at hurdling with her and even described her as being "electric" over obstacles when they schooled her recently. It'll be interesting to see how she progresses in that code and I'll be keeping an eye on her for sure.

+7.00pts on the day after the 20p R4 is taken into account. It'll do!

3:00 Leicester - Here To Eternity - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Doubts over ground conditions make this a risky race to punt in but Here To Eternity is an animal that I feel could have a nice amount in hand, assuming she gets ideal conditions. What her ideal conditions are is something I can't be fully sure of and although Peter Chapple-Hyam's 3 year old filly disappointed last twice when tackling softer ground, I don't think that's what is to blame for her poor efforts. The ground is currently listed as being good-to-firm, good in places and if the rain materializes as expected, it should end up being on the slow side of good. Hopefully that won't be a problem for this animal and if the ground ends up being fairly decent, I'll be going in again.

Here To Eternity only lined out once as a juvenile and although the overall result was poor (well beaten), she showed enough promise to suggest that she'd be winning races. That promise came to fruition on her opening start as a 3 year old, as this nicely-bred daughter of a 1 mile Listed winner ran out a ¾ length winner over 7f at Folkestone. She traveled very well under the hands of Jack Mitchell and once popped the question, responded in a decent manner. I don't think that track is exactly what she'd be after and even though it was a weak maiden, she showed plenty of promise for when she'd be heading off to contest handicaps.

Next time out, in a competitive 14 runner handicap at Warwick, Here To Eternity was a very unlucky loser (off this mark) having suffered from traffic problems mid-race. She had a poor draw and was forced to drop in behind at the rear of the field because of it. That's not ideal at a sharp, speedy track like Warwick and racing prominently is a massive plus, as shown by the end result in that outing (first 3 raced handy in messy race). Peter Chapple-Hyam's filly made ground on the field when coming into the bend very wide in an attempt to bag the rail and although she did, it proved her undoing as a trio of horses crossed her path in the process of making that move, leaving her jockey with no option but to switch left for a run. She showed a very nice turn of foot to fly through the gaps and ran on strongly, eventually going down by just half-a-length in 4th. It was a performance that showed she was more than capable of landing some handicap prizes in the coming months.

Things didn't really materialize since as Here To Eternity disappointed over 6f at Salisbury before doing similar over 7f at Yarmouth, both runs being on softer ground. I'm willing to write off those efforts fairly easily as I don't feel she had things to suit. This stiff 7 furlong test at Leicester should suit, as I expect her to get a mile in time and the fact that she's running in a bigger field should also help (needs cover, raced a bit free last time out). The yard are also in good form of late with 3 winners from their last 9 runners and when the trainer comes down to this track, he usually does very well. 27% of his runners have won (19-70) and he also shows a massive £80 LSP. William Buick takes over in the saddle for the first time and he's 3-15 on the flat for this yard. It's hopefully a sign of intent and Chapple-Hyam only comes down to Leicester with one runner today. Overall, I don't think this contest is anything special (fav won Chepstow seller last time out!) and this filly could take plenty of beating if she can put her last couple of outings behind her. The ground is the only worry but anything that's not too soft should be suitable. Small win stakes for me - I'll be greedy and hope for the best.