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PyRo's Horse Bets.
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RoverJames wrote: »I didn't see the race but I can only imagine, he's that sort of jockey.
Watch it if you get a chance. It was as bad as anything I've ever seen him do. Calling it an "exaggerated hold-up ride" wouldn't even cover it. Such a tool.0 -
Your "bad" start to the month seems like a lifetime away now!
It's days like these where I'm happy I'm not a real man and always back each way!;)0 -
Still not doing well though. Need to get more winners!
Another frustrating day, even though it ended up being one that showed a profit. Magic City was the first to run and having been well-backed throughout the day, a big run was expected from Richard Hannon's charge. However, Richard Hughes' exaggerated hold-up tactics proved to be his downfall and he can be considered a most unlucky loser. Always going well towards the rear of the field, Hughes must of though he was on a Group 1 animal in this Nursery as he didn't go for him until much too late.
In the end, he was squeezed out when looking for a run and although he flashed home late when in the clear, it was only enough to come home a few lengths behind the winner in 3rd place. Regardless of the disappointing result for myself, the horse is clearly back in good form and he'll be winning before too long, although I doubt I'll be getting 8/1 about him again unless he reverts to his old ways. He got the trip without problem and looks capable of fulfilling his earlier promise over this sort of trip. Hopefully he will.
Hughes made up for that poor ride by guiding Eureka to victory in the following race. He set a slow pace in front and quickened nicely with a couple of furlongs to go before going on to score in a very game fashion. There's bound to be a lot more to come from this animal and given the amount of stamina on his dam's side, there's every chance that he'll be contesting races over a mile as a 3 year old. It'll be interesting to see how he progresses but this was a fine effort conceding weight all round and a step back in the right direction having been below his best on his previous start at Group 2 level - although the Goodwood track can take the majority of the blame for that performance, as I don't think he enjoyed it at all. +9.00pts from a 2pt bet at 9/2.
Dinkum Diamond continued the recent trend in the race that he contested as he became the third 3 year old in as many years to finish 2nd in the race. Henry Candy's speedy colt traveled well throughout and had a race run perfectly for him, as he loves to chase after a solid pace. Once asked for maximum effort, he quickened up nicely to take up the running a furlong from home but he was eventually reeled back by the 4 year old winner. He only went down by ½ a length in the end and it was a good effort, one that would normally win a race of that nature.
I think he used up too much energy in taking down Captain Dunne who had traveled to the front going well just over a furlong from home and it ultimately proved to be his downfall. He kept going well to the line though and stepping him up to 6 furlongs on an easy track wouldn't be a bad idea at all. Good performance, no excuses and for once, no complaints from me! He's a horse to keep on the right side of though and I'm convinced that he'll land a Group race at 4 if he's still around.
In typical fashion, my strongest bet of the day - Shesastar - proved to be the most disappointing of the bunch. However, it was an effort that doesn't reflect her ability at all and having been taken off heels early on, she just couldn't get involved. I'm not convinced with how she moved on the ground and a return to a softer surface looks needed - unless I'm way off the mark. Disappointing but there's not a whole pile to say about how she ran, as it's too bad to be true. Hopefully that'll ensure that she's a nice price next time out, as her current rating is one that she can overcome when getting ideal conditions.
+2.00pts on the day. Could be worse, could be a whole lot better. Hopefully a bit of luck will swing my way, as plenty are making the frame without following through on their threats, which is annoying as hell! It's actually much easier to take when they're beaten out of sight, even though that sounds odd. I live in hope!
1:25 Doncaster - Besito - 3pts @ 4/1 (WillHill)
Another 2 year old race to get stuck into and last time out maiden winner Besito could well be the best of the bunch. William Jarvis seems to think quite highly of this 67,000gns purchase and he has every right to be optimistic about his chances of landing the spoils here with this progressive filly. Overall, there's only a few that I'd be giving chances too, as plenty look quite average. Some come to line up here on the back of decent efforts at Listed level but they're not for me (some were flattered big time).
The strict form of the last race that Besito contested is quite weak but as I've said before, that never concerns me. The raw visual impression of her all-the-way 3½ length victory over 6 furlongs at Newmarket was impressive and although what has come out of the race since hasn't upgraded the bare form in any way, I'm not panicking. She showed some bright speed to put the whole field to the sword relatively early on and continued to stay on up the hill in the manner of a filly who could contest stakes races in time. Today, she will tackle an extra half-furlong at this much easier track and I think it could help to see her in an even better light.
After that success, William Jarvis said that "we think Besito is quite smart and we may look at a Listed race next." It's good to see that they're not throwing her into a contest of that nature just yet, as a mark of 87 is very workable in Nurseries for her and I'm hopeful that she'll prove to be a lot better than that rating in time. She'll have to defy top-weight on her debut out of maidens and although that's no simple task, she seems to have the raw ability to blitz these if things go to plan.
Besito can make the running or accept a lead and the current decent ground conditions should not pose a threat to her running her race. Kieren Fallon is on board - as he has been last twice - and that's surely a plus. William Jarvis' yard are in cracking form with 2 winners and 3 seconds from his last 8 runners. I've missed the 13/2 that was available for this horse earlier but 4/1 is still too big and I'd rate her as being worthy of a shorter price. It's also interesting to see that she still has an entry in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in a few weeks, although that looks much too optimistic and she won't be lining out there one would imagine. Medium win stakes for me and Elusive Flame (7/1) would be considered as the best-priced danger.0 -
At least youve calmed down a bit about Hughsie lol.
Onwards and upwards Pyro.0 -
I still feel the same. :pac:
1:55 Doncaster - Rimth - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365)
A competitive Group 3 contest for fillies & mares over 7 furlongs. Paul Cole's Rimth may be worth taking a chance on as she has undoubted class when things go well, although her keen going ways often get in the way and stop her from showing her best form. However, if she can settle down under the guidance of the brilliant Frankie Dettori, she's capable of turning around recent form with a few of her opponents here today. I think that the return to a straight 7f could be a massive plus for this speedy 3 year old and in general, the Doncaster track should prove to be ideal.
Rimth disappointed last time out when sent off as a 4/1 shot over 6f at Pontefract having dropped to Listed company for the first time since her early juvenile days. However, she saw way too much daylight as she was always caught wide and this made settling her an impossible task. She trailed in a long way behind the leaders but I'm more than happy to overlook that run as it wasn't a true reflection of her ability, much like a few of her other outings. It also seems as if 6f may not be ideal for her nowadays (despite her being one of the top sprint juvenile fillies last year) and the Pontefract track is one that doesn't play to her strengths.
Previous to that - on her penultimate start - Rimth ran a cracking race over this 7f trip at Goodwood when tackling the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes. On that occasion, a wide draw in stall 15 of 17 made it awfully difficult for her to get a nice position. She ended up getting caught wide at the tricky Goodwood track and this is far from ideal around there, especially with a horse who constantly wants to go faster. She raced with the choke out as usual but moved nicely into contention and looked a big threat a couple of furlongs from home. It took a while for her to hit top gear (will find it easier to do here) but she was running on well in the end and finished 3½ lengths behind Chachamaidee - who she re-opposes (7/2 shot) on identical terms. It'll be tough to turn around that form but it's do-able with a better position mid-race and with this course being much more suitable too.
Paul Cole now reaches for cheekpieces for the speedy Rimth and this looks like a good move. If they have the desired effect, it could unlock even more ability for this animal to get competitive at a trip that she remains capable of improving over. She's unexposed in the main and once she matures mentally, there's more Group races to be won with her before she heads off to be a broodmare. A repeat of her impressive Group 3 Fred Darling win over this trip at Newbury in April would see her get into the frame and although this is a tougher race with regards to opposition, she's worthy of having a small bet on at a price-tag of 10/1. Hopefully she'll go well and fulfill her obvious potential, as I'm quite sure she hasn't shown her best yet, despite the fact that she has numerous good runs on the slate. Risky race to punt in though, hence the small stake.0 -
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4:10 Doncaster - Mon Brav - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (WillHill, 4 places)
Once again I'm going to take a chance on Brian Ellison's Mon Brav, especially now that he's back down to a level that he can compete in. This is the first time that this progressive 4 year old drops back to a Class 3 contest over his favoured 6f since finishing 2nd to the progressive Andrew Balding trained Dungannon (off 90 then, winner off 95 since beating very progressive animal) over this C&D in June. Previous to that he had won his opening pair of outings for his new yard, winning off 75 at Musselburgh over an inadequate 5f before following up off 81 in a competitive 16 runner contest at Thirsk, a track that I don't think is completely ideal.
Since that very good run over C&D, things haven't went to plan for Mon Brav but I think he has been campaigned in some races that he just found impossible to get involved in. First up, he ran over 5f at the stiff Newcastle track and although he wasn't beaten far (3½l), it would be considered a poor run given how well-backed he was (sent off 4/1 favourite in C2 event). He was then drawn out in the car park over 6f at Ascot, although once again he was punted from fancy prices into 10/1 for a much tougher race than this. That run can be discounted.
Next - and last - time out, Mon Brav couldn't get involved in a very hot handicap over 5f at York, mainly down to the track favouring those racing on the pace that day (he was towards the rear throughout, kept on final furlong). That trip is too short anyways, but the trip at that track was never going to suit and it was game over before he even stepped into the stalls - even though I backed him oddly enough.
Now that Mon Brav returns to his proper trip, grade and a track that suits, I feel he can get back into the frame and put his recent efforts behind him. Given how he was backed on a few occasions since last scoring, connections must think that he's up to defying these sort of marks in competitive races and hopefully they're going here with the intent of landing the spoils, as Brian Ellison is good at keeping them for a gamble. Another positive is the booking of the supremely talented Silvestre De Sousa. He's got a 28% strike-rate for this yard with 7 winners from just 25 rides and it could well be a signal of intent (at least I hope so). He's also 3 from 10 when on board animals owned by Koo's Racing Club and hopefully he could add to that here.
I think De Sousa is the ideal partner for this horse - as both are very determined and hard to beat in a finish when things go well. The race will be run to suit and the horse also has a nice sit in still 19 - as it seems that you want a high draw over sprint trips at Doncaster. Ground will cause no concern either and there seems to be no obvious reason why he can't make the frame, thus making 18/1 look too big. The pace should be strong along the stands' rail and Mon Brav will get a nice toe into the race assuming he's good enough. Small each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run well. Previous selection Shropshire (25/1) may be worth a few quid each-way too. It's a very, very tough race to get to grips with though, so I won't be surprised by whoever wins this.0 -
I was +5.65 pts for yesterday with thanks to you. Thankfully I am an e/w wuss too
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Can't catch a break at all. Besito was too keen and got hampered. Rimth completely blew the start, giving away about 8 to 10 lengths. Impossible task after that.
Sometimes Lady Luck takes a look down at me and laughs.0 -
took a 0.5 e/w on elusive flame just in case.... has covered me for today so far
fair play pyro! 0 -
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Hi Pyro,
I have been watching your writeups for the past week or 3 and I must say they are very informative, detailed and well written, particularly the one exposing bumsex, well done. So I've decided to take the plunge and follow your selections.
I'd just like to ask, when you mention at the end of your writeups that a horse may be worth an ew bet, how many points would you suggest putting on? What do you do?
Thanks0 -
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^ Wish I done that!Hi Pyro,
I have been watching your writeups for the past week or 3 and I must say they are very informative, detailed and well written, particularly the one exposing bumsex, well done. So I've decided to take the plunge and follow your selections.
I'd just like to ask, when you mention at the end of your writeups that a horse may be worth an ew bet, how many points would you suggest putting on? What do you do?
Thanks
Howdy Slozer,
Cheers, just a pity the results haven't been going right of late. Just need to get that little bit of luck on my side.
I just mention them to show who else I was considering (some people mightn't fancy mine and look into the others instead), but I often play a small bet on them to get the stake back if my main one loses.
Wouldn't be worthwhile mentioning a stake, as it's tiny whenever I bother backing a saver. Typically, I didn't back Elusive Flame today despite thinking she was both well-priced and a big danger. Sometimes my stupidity takes over.0 -
I have 1.5 e/w on all xPyros suggestions today, including Elusive Flame and Shropshire.
Elusive Flame has me in the + for the day already, so I can sit back and just chillll......
+15 pts for the day.
xPyro, If I ever have the pleasure, I'll buy you a pint.0 -
read to end read to the end read to the end. 33/1 and came in e/w!0
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Ugh, poor day.
Wouldn't you know well that the other couple mentioned go on to return money. One winning at 13/2 and the other placing at 33/1.
Luckily this is a long-term game and there's always tomorrow (which looks tough), and the next day, and plenty more. /positive thoughts
Everyone should keep an eye out on Mon Brav because I think there's a nice 6f Handicap for him this autumn when he gets cut in the ground. Will need a good draw wherever he goes and a good pace to run at, but he will have a big chance to land a race this month or next.0 -
Hard luck dude,0
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Cheers TB, just one of those things we've to put up with as gamblers! Could always be worse.
Early one for tomorrow because I think this price is very wrong. I hope so anyways.
1:25 Doncaster - Angels Will Fall - 4pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)
Back with reasoning later.0 -
Ugh, poor day.
Wouldn't you know well that the other couple mentioned go on to return money. One winning at 13/2 and the other placing at 33/1.
Luckily this is a long-term game and there's always tomorrow (which looks tough), and the next day, and plenty more. /positive thoughts
Everyone should keep an eye out on Mon Brav because I think there's a nice 6f Handicap for him this autumn when he gets cut in the ground. Will need a good draw wherever he goes and a good pace to run at, but he will have a big chance to land a race this month or next.
I take it you didn't go with your own instincts. Something all of us are guilty of. However it doesn't take from the fact that you are still picking out winners and your methods and instincts are spot on. I see some people on here have made a profit today by being able to deduct from your past postings that any horses you mention are worth a bet.
Keep em coming0 -
Indeed I didn't mate - thought I'd be smart (proved to be wrong there) and just stick to what I put up, as I don't like backing anything that I don't confirm on here. Helps to keep me disciplined, which is one of the most important things for me. Helps me avoid severe tilting too.
I'll keep them coming until the day that I quit gambling, which will be never I hope!0 -
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Plenty more disappointment on Day 2 of the Leger meeting. My strongest selection, Besito, disappointed in the opening contest - only managing to come home in 7th place. However, she was hampered in the early stages and also took a keen grip under the hands of Kieren Fallon (having accepted a lead), so I'm more than willing to overlook this effort. She moved nicely and looked in with a chance at one stage, but faded out of contention after, with her earlier exertions taking their toll.
A step up to 7f wouldn't go astray and forcing tactics could see her in a better light too - as she's a sizable filly with a lovely stride on her, so it makes sense to use it considering she's proved she can go from the front already. Disappointing effort today, but I'm convinced that the money will be returned by her soon enough. Typically, the only one I mentioned as a danger, Elusive Flame, went on to land the spoils at 13/2. Hindsight is wonderful but I really should of played a small saver there.
I can't say much about Rimth, as her chance was gone within the first couple of seconds. She broke very, very slowly and veered left afterwards, giving up about 8-to-10 lengths to the field in the process. There'll be other days very her and I will be on again. Although it was disappointing as the race was run to suit and I'm sure she'd of got involved in the finish if she broke on terms with them. Frustrating.
Mon Brav ran a solid race to finish in 10th place and it was an effort better than the bare finishing position suggests. He saw plenty of daylight on the outside of the field and looked a big threat with a couple of furlongs to go - hitting 4/1 in-running when holding every chance. His effort petered out on ground that was probably a bit lively for him and dropped back through the field. There's a nice handicap in him when he gets softer ground and I will definitely keep a close eye on him. His current rating isn't beyond him at all and connections will find the key to unlock the door for him again soon. No complaints today though, he ran well. Shropshire - the other horse I mentioned - finished in a place at a fancy 33/1 price-tag.
-7.00pts on the day. Disappointing again, but that little bit of luck needed is due to fall my way any time now... It's 1/10 that it won't.
1:25 Doncaster - Angels Will Fall - 4pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)
Another cracking 2 year old contest to get stuck into and with this one being likely to be run at a ferocious pace over the flying 5 furlongs at Doncaster, the now Charlie Hills trained Angels Will Fall could well be the one to benefit. There's at least 4 or 5 different pace angles - combined with plenty of pressers, which should ensure that there'll be no hanging about. This is bound to suit the strong-travelling, hold-up animals, of which there aren't too many. The Hills juvenile fits the bill and she also has an exceptional turn of foot - one of the best from this years juvenile division and it's something that should always give her a chance of getting involved in the finish when contesting any top sprint.
Angels Will Fall opened her account on debut when lining up over 5f at Windsor back in May. That was the same maiden in which one of last years top-notch juvenile fillies landed the spoils - that filly was Rimth. On this occasion - under the guidance of today's jockey Robert Winston - the then Barry Hills trained animal ran out a more than comfortable 3¾ length winner, justifying very strong support in the process. She didn't beat a whole pile but the way in which she traveled into contention before extending away from the field (with pure ease) was ultra-impressive and it seemed a sure thing that she'd go on to score at Group level before the year was out.
Her Group level aspirations came to fruition next time out as Angels Will Fall took the Group 3 Princess Margret Stakes at Ascot on the 23rd of July. She had pulled a muscle previous to her intended start at the Royal meeting on the same course and that's why she was off the track for circa 10 weeks. However, it didn't matter as she put a next-time-out Group 3 winner to the sword with a very nice change of gear despite racing on good-to-soft ground, which I'm not convinced is ideal (nor is the relatively stiff track). They went fairly slow early on in that race, which did help her over a trip that's not ideal - so she may be a little bit flattered by the performance (2nd placed horse is high-class, just not in a race run like that). Regardless, the return to 5f on better ground is sure to suit - along with the easier track - and an end-to-end gallop over this trip will see her in a much better light if all is well.
The only reason we're getting anything like 5/1 about this filly is because she disappointed last time out when upped to Group 2 level at York (over 6f again). In that race - on softer ground - Angels Will Fall (7/2 fav) threw her chances away by refusing to settle early on (saw too much daylight on outside) and as a result, had nothing left to give in the finish. She still held a chance at one stage but it was proving very tough to come from off the pace at York and it was just an impossible task for an animal who wants the minimum trip on better ground. I'm more than willing to write that effort off as she's so much better than that and should be able to prove it here.
Robert Winston hops back on board having missed out on the chance to ride her last time out and that should be a big plus, as he clearly forged a good partnership with her on her opening pair of races. He also previously said that she was "probably the best five-furlong filly in the country" after her second outing (the G3 success) and now he'll get the chance to prove that Angels Will Fall performed well below her ability when he wasn't in the drivers seat. This could also provide Charles Hills with his first Group winner since took over the reins from his recently retired father.
Stepping Angels Will Fall back to 5f looks like the perfect move and I think she should run a cracker here if getting the breaks mid-race. She's got speed to burn, a wonderful turn of foot and the potential to improve tenfold. 5/1 represents a lot of value and personally I'd have her a lot shorter - possibly around the 2/1-5/2 mark. As with everything, I could be miles off the ball but this is a more than winnable race for her. My Propeller would be the one I'd be most worried about but she won a weak Listed contest last time out and she may be correctly priced at around 11/2.
Requinto is another talented horse and a danger but I'm not sure that he'll have things to suit here and taking 7/2 about him seems too risky to be worth it. He also strikes me as one who should be better over further when learning to relax in his races and I think he could be swept off his feet here. It still wouldn't be a surprise to see him win though, as his Group 3 Goodwood win was achieved in the style of a very nice horse. The price is still too short though, and that's enough to put me off.
Overall, I'm sticking with the Hills/Winston combination to come up trumps before going on to tackle the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in a few weeks. Although if she takes up that engagement, I'd be shocked if she won. The chances of her getting home over that trip at the stiff track are slim to none. Stranger things have happened but it's not very likely based on how much speed she seems to posses. Borderline maximum stakes for me, as she's vastly overpriced given the obvious chance that she has. Hopefully she'll go well and preferably win!0 -
1:55 Doncaster - Itlaaq - 2pts @ 11/1 (PaddyPower)
A lack of any assured pace in this 1m 6½f contest is a worry but Itlaaq - an improving, tactically versatile animal - could be the answer to this very tricky equation. Since joining the Mick Easterby yard from John Dunlop's stable to embark on his 5 year old campaign, this relatively unexposed gelding has put in numerous good performances. It'll take a career best for him to land this £25,000 prize for connections but the way in which he travels and makes up ground is impressive, enough so to suggest that he could be better than his career-high handicap mark of 94.
A few things have contributed to the improvement of Itlaaq, the first being a step up to longer distances than he tackled for previous connections. His last 3 outings, all at York - over 1m 4f and 2m (twice) - have seen him produce efforts better than anything he did when with John Dunlop. First up, he finished just over 2 lengths behind Awsaal - a very talented, improving 4 year old colt (former stablemate). In that race, Mick Easterby's charge made good headway as usual and just couldn't go on in the closing stages when looking a big threat under the guidance of now regular partner Graham Gibbons.
It seemed as if a step up in trip would do no harm and Itlaaq was given the chance to prove himself over 2m, again at York. It indeed worked wonders as Easterby's animal came into contention 2f from home pulling double, and some. However, he was forced to battle hard for the victory when push came to shove and ended up winning by the smallest of margins. His stamina may have gave way but it was a more than encouraging effort to defy a mark of 88 in a decent 13 runner field and the way he traveled boded well for future engagements.
Next time out, he half-disappointed over the same C&D as when achieving victory on his previous outing. However, his stamina did give way in the closing stages that day and it wasn't the 6lb penalty (off same mark of 94 here) that did him. Itlaaq actually produced an effort that's rated a career-best, as once again, he traveled into contention well having made good headway on the outside of the field. Now that he steps back down a furlong-and-a-half in trip to tackle 1m 6½f for the first time (never went beyond 1m 4f before tackling 2 miles last twice), I think we could see even more improvement. This looks to be around about his ideal trip based on his most recent outings and despite taking on some useful animals today, he could take advantage.
Conditions should be no problem and Itlaaq ran a solid race over 1m 2f at this track back in April. The key to him seems to be a long home-straight to run on and he gets that today. Graham Gibbons' shocking course record (4 wins, 129 rides) is a massive worry but this horse could be up to Listed contests if he keeps on going the right way and he seems to have most things to suit here. A good, even gallop would make his chances even better but that's not assured, unfortunately. He has run well in muddling affairs though and he possesses plenty of tactical speed, so I'm hopeful that it won't affect his chances. 11/1 looks a few points too big and I'll play small win stakes again. Of the remainder, Luca Cumani's 11/2 shot - Bourne - could be the best of the rest but he's half the price of my selection and I'll side with the horse who I believe to be superior value. Hopefully he'll justify it.0 -
Fingers crossed for AWF. BS were the only ones doing 5s earlier but my a/c is stuck (because Ive been with them so long I actually have an a/c number instead of a user name :-S)
Put bet on in shop instead and got a funny look cos its not my normal type of shop bet.0 -
Fingers crossed dude, best of luck. :-)
4:10 Doncaster - Swiss Franc - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)
Plenty of the field can be given a chance here but Swiss Franc could be capable of striking for the exceptionally in-form David Elsworth stable (5 winners & 4 places from last 13 runners). This 6 year old sprinter was a top-notch juvenile and even managed to finish ¾ of a length behind Henrythenavigator when coming 2nd in the '07 running of the Coventry Stakes run over 6f at Royal Ascot. Like plenty of those who are more than useful at 2, he struggled to make an impact at 3. He only ran 5 times at 4 & 5 but seems to have come back in decent form this year and could be capable of more.
Swiss Franc ended a 4 year long losing run when getting his head in-front (by ¾ of a length) in a 6-runner race over the stiff 5f at Newmarket in July. This race is a completely different kettle of fish but on that occasion, he showed he retained plenty of his old ability to score off a mark of 89 - beating some solid sprinters in the process. The further he went up the hill, the better he extended his stride and I think this easy-track 6½f test could be right up his street, assuming he handles the ground (ideally wants cut apparently). A solid pace to run at is virtually assured and a sit in stall 14 is a grand position to be in, so there aren't too many excuses with regards to the simplistic things that you want to see in his favour.
Since landing the spoils at Newmarket, Swiss Franc has run a few solid, staying-on races over 5 furlongs - including an impressive running-on 1 length 3rd of 12 behind the ever progressing Medicean Man at Ascot. Seeing that he's recapturing some consistency now, I think he could be the type to go in again. This is a tough race but there's plenty to like about him and a mark of 95 may not be beyond his capabilities at all. William Buick - who boasts an excellent record at this track - hops back on board for the first time since guiding him to that Newmarket win and he could be key to getting the best out of this fellow. He also does well on the rare occasion that he rides for the Elsworth yard.
With the yard flying, the horse in-form and a brilliant man for riding the course on board, the 16/1 price-tag could offer a lot of value. He's stepping back into the unknown with regards to trip but he used to see out his races quite well when he was in good form and hopefully he'll do so again. Small each-way stakes as it's a risky race to punt in. Kanaf (5/1) looks an obvious threat to all of the field and Mike Murphy's 4 year old, Lutine Bell (14/1), wouldn't be without frame claims either if the removal of his usual headgear has a positive impact. I'm hopeful that David Elsworth can cause another mini upset and his charge is well overpriced to do so. The ground has to be a worry though, purely based on his trainers comments saying he loved the bit of cut at Newmarket. However, he has fast ground form - so it's a risk worth taking.0 -
Good luck with your assault on the bookies tomorrow 0
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It'll be an assault alright - them pinning me down and battering me with sticks!
4:40 Doncaster - Mashaaref - 2pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower)
Short write-up here, getting tired! 3 year old's have dominated this race in recent years with 8 of the last 9 running's going to horses of that age group. I expect to see the same here with Roger Varian's charge Mashaaref. This Hamdan Al Maktoum owned colt has run on 4 occasions and looks sure to have more to come, not least when he learns to relax in his races. Unraced at 2, he didn't take long to get off the mark when scoring at the second attempt (first on turf) at a mile around Nottingham in May. It wouldn't be the best of maidens out there but it was a decent performance nonetheless and certainly one of a horse with plenty more to come.
Mashaaref was beaten by 4½ lengths in each of his following races, both runs being in handicaps off marks of 83. He did show improvement when finishing 2nd (well-backed) to Sir Henry Cecil's quirky but talented All Action over this trip at Ascot when last seen. He was probably just outstayed that day and this easier race & track could help. Richard Hills, although poor, is an upgrade from Tadgh O'Shea who was on board last time out. Hills was up for his first 3 outings and knows the horse well enough by now to get the best out of him. He's also riding a lot better of late and doesn't okay at this track.
Roger Varian comes down to Doncaster with 2 runners and bids to maintain his 2 from 2 unbeaten record at the track. His yard are in decent form and with the potentially useful Mashaaref having been freshened up after 2 months off the track, I think we can expect a very big run, certainly that of a horse with a favourites chance. Small win stakes again as the price isn't phenomenal value this time but he has a lively opportunity and should go well. Of the older horses, my old foe and another David Elsworth animal - Viva Vettori - would be the next best bet at 8/1. He's frustrating though and seems to find bad luck wherever he goes.0 -
I hope you don't feel under pressure to give a second option per race. You already put enough time into your main selections like.0
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I don't mate - it actually helps my confidence when the second choice wins or places at nice odds, even though I'm usually not on. The main one may lose but at least I was going down the right track.
I go through every horse lining up thoroughly in the study so it doesn't take any effort to mention the next best. Just never bothered before because I didn't think it'd be of any benefit at all. Some people love dutching though, I just prefer to back one and have small stake savers or in-running lays on my main ones.
Que My Propeller, Bourne, Kanaf and Viva Vettori all winning. :pac:0 -
Not sure what to say. That was awful probably sums it up.
Angels Will Fall was way too keen - she'll never show her best until she learns to relax.
Itlaaq couldn't get room for a long time and kept losing position because of it. They crawled too, which did not suit.
Swiss Franc was sent out to make the running for God knows what reason. Would of been better if he was held up given how the race went (plus the doubt over the trip) but connections obviously thought different of it. Proved to be a stupid decision in the end.
Mashaaref could of saved the day but ran into a future Listed/Group horse on the day. He came 2nd, ran well - just not up to the level of the winner.
Gutted.0 -
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Keep the faith!Just one of those days!
I was just wondering how you go about picking a particular race to study?Do you have any particular details that you look for before you begin analyzing a race?and just what research methods or websites/information do you find best?!
Your selections are top class and there's no doubt that the amount of time you put in will be rewarded!Happy Punting...Giddy Up!0
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