PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Cheers SDK, appreciate it. :-)

I'll look at any race that's priced up the night before - mainly because I find that the early markets are often very wrong (which is proved by the difference between my profit to prices I post up compared to profit at the price they go off).

Preferably, I want to back in C2-to-C4 h'cap contests over 5f to 8f (1m) in which plenty of seemingly exposed handicappers run in (they may seem exposed based on how many times they've run but the majority are unexposed when getting ideal conditions - then you need to find out who's suited to today's race, which is the tough part).

I don't particularly like solving races over further because the animals are so reliant on getting a good pace to run at, which doesn't happen all the time over those distances. Doesn't happen over shorter on occasions but it's more likely to be run properly at least. Then draw, closeness to pace, run style, track bias, etc, comes into the equation.

The only thing I need for research is videos (usually watch at least 30-40 videos per race), but I also use Timeform and signed up to the Racing Post Members Club thing for their analysis of previous races. I don't particularly agree with a lot of what they say but it's wise to take other peoples opinions into account and work your own around them.

I find that a horse needs so much to be in its favour to run to his/her best and that's why the main thing I do is find excuses. Keep trying to find excuses as to why a horse isn't in form or giving its best and you'll come across enough overpriced horses in the long run to make a profit. All of that is assuming one can know what to look out for when trying to find reasons as to why they're not showing their best (fitness etc can also play a part, but that's guesswork). There's so much to look for.

Personally, I don't mind the losing runs because I've got a betting bank to deal with them and I know I will always make a profit on the flat if I don't drop my level of study - which won't happen as I'll quit if it does. The thing that I hate is losing money for others (even if it's a losing day wedged in between a couple of highly profitable ones) and that's why it's hard to take days like these. Still, it's just best to motor on after it and try make it up the next day by using the same methods over and over. I'm not panicking just yet!

Cheers for the kind words, certainly makes things easier when everyone's so supportive even when things don't go to plan. On we go.

x PyRo

It's fair to say that I wouldn't pick a winner in a one horse race at the moment but on we go.

Angels Will Fall disappointed again, mainly down to her refusal to settle in the early stages. I was fully confident that she'd make the frame as the drop back in trip was in her favour but she just didn't perform to her best at all. Disappointing and there's not a whole pile I can say apart from the fact that she's so much better than that. I'll be on again and hopefully the losses will be recouped.

Itlaaq suffered from a lack of pace to run at in his race and he didn't get a good run through when asked for maximum effort. Again, it was disappointing but he performed better than his finishing position would suggest and he'll be one to note if tackling races around this trip again. I don't think 2m is for him but a nicely run 1m 6f could bring out further improvement.

Swiss Franc was sent out to make the running for some reason and I would of much preferred to have seen him settled in rear, as doubts over his ability to get the extended 6f trip should of put front-running tactics way down the list of priorities. He ended up finishing where he should of started the race and - as the majority of my bets during this festival have been - it was a very disappointing performance.

Mashaaref did the best of the lot but he could only muster up a 2nd placed finish in the end. He moved nicely throughout and was well-positioned in a race suiting those on the pace - but ultimately, he ran into a horse that looks capable of performing at Listed/Group level in the future and that put paid to his chances. There'll be races in him off his current rating but I'll be leaving well alone as this performance should ensure that he will be a short price next time out.

-10.00pts on another poor day. Between bad judgement and bad luck, I just can't catch a break at the moment. Hopefully it'll turn around soon, but this meeting has proved to be impossible for me and it's hard to be overly confident about anything.

2:05 Doncaster - Trumpet Major - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Only 5 runners go to post for this 7f Group 2 contest but Trumpet Major could be capable of causing a little shock here if bouncing back from a disappointing effort last time out. Richard Hannon's juvenile was sent off as the 6/4 favourite for the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on the 20th of August but with genuinely soft ground to contend with for the first time in his career, he performed atrociously and came home in last position in a 4 runner race.

The winner of that race - Talwar - had finished just a short-head in-front of Hannon's colt 4 weeks previously at Ascot (also over 7f, in Listed contest) and to see the winning margin increased by 8 lengths would definitely suggest that Trumpet Major was inconvenienced by the conditions. It's also possible that the soft ground combined with the stiff Sandown hill was completely against him and negated his previously impressive turn of foot. The return to an easier track on quicker ground will help and he'll get the chance to prove his class on optimum conditions. Whether he's good enough to trouble the short-priced market leaders is another thing - as they look quite useful.

However, going back to the performance of Trumpet Major's penultimate run would see him hold solid claims and that's the form that I'm happy to work with. Over 7f on fast ground at Newmarket, this €20,000 purchase scooted in by an easy 6 lengths in a 4 runner conditions race. The opposition weren't great but under the hands of Pat Dobbs, the Hannon colt traveled supremely, took up the running on the bit and then produced a telling turn of foot to run away from the field without having much of a race at all. Even though it was only a small-field conditions race, the visual impression of that performance was as good as anything that the other 4 runners in this field has produced and I'd prefer to side with that rather than the potential of the others.

Entifaadha comes here with a big reputation and a couple of very good performances on both of his career starts to date. However, it seems as if cut in the ground is required to see him at his best and I feel that it's a risk taking 5/4 about a horse like him. There's bound to be a lot more to come but with both wins achieved in 13 & 20 runner fields, he may not enjoy how this race will be run. Red Duke is a 5/2 shot and looks more than useful but again, he's a horse who will stay further and won't enjoy the possible muddling affair over an easy 7f. John Quinn also has an atrocious record at the course (4 wins, 102 runners) and his yard aren't exactly firing as they so often can. I'd rather take him on too.

Trumpet Major has already showed solid performances in muddling races and he has the speed, turn of foot and potential to improve again to win this, or at least go close. He looked like a Group horse in waiting when scoring on his penultimate start and if we ignore his latest run, he's still on an upward curve. Richard Hughes hops back on board today and with the yard going well, they could have a decent chance of getting another nice juvenile Group winner on the board. I could see Hughes dictating the pace from the front and quickening a couple of furlongs out to turn it into a real sprint and if it pans out like that, 10/1 could look quite big after the race. How and ever, he looks to be an unlikely winner so I'll just play minimum win stakes and hope for the best.

FOXFISH1

Trumpet Major only 8/1 on pp.... deffo pays to have a few online bookies accounts

x PyRo

2:35 Doncaster - Addictive Dream - 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

Time to play the persistence card again, as I always thought Addictive Dream had another nice handicap in him ever since he landed the spoils at Ripon - bringing in a decent bet for myself in the process. Things haven't gone to plan for Walter Swinburn's 4 year old since and he has also shown signs of temperament, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's an exceptionally talented animal on his day. If things can fall his way during the race today, I'm convinced that he's up to landing this £37,350 prize for connections over a trip that should be around his optimum.

Addictive Dream put in a performance worthy of seeing him get involved at Listed/Group 3 level when overcoming having to race on the 'wrong' side of the Ripon track back in June. He was over 6½ lengths clear of his own group and 2 lengths clear of the favoured group which was headed by the Tim Easterby trained 5 year old, Grissom, a three-time winner since having won off 78, 82 & 88. 8 of the 13 runners in behind have won since and some of them multiple times, so to see Walter Swinburn's charge hammer them off a mark of 91 was impressive. He's 6lbs higher now but it's not beyond him if he's at the top of his game and I'm hopeful that connections should have him spot on today.

Addictive Dream has run on 4 occasions since then, putting in 3 solid efforts before flopping last time out on his return to Ripon in the ultra-competitive, 19-runner Great St Wilfred Stakes. However, he was drawn on the wrong side and never got into contention, possibly paying for his exertions a week earlier when coming an unlucky 1½ length 5th behind Dungannon over 5f at Ascot. On that occasion, he was very well-backed in the Shergar Cup Dash and if it hadn't of been for getting wedged on the rail with nowhere to go, he'd of added to his 3 career wins. Usually the bare 5f is a bit on the sharp side for this animal but he was cruising in behind the leaders and that bodes well for his chances here. If he's in the same form again, I'm sure he'll go close.

Walter Swinburn isn't having too much luck of late and all of his last 26 runners have lost, despite many running well. Today he and connections see fit to book the brilliant Frankie Dettori, which I'm hopeful is a signal of intent. Frankie rarely rides for this yard and he's riding exceptionally well of late - with 5 winners, 6 seconds and 1 third from his last 14 rides. He could be key to getting the best out of this tricky animal and maybe the removal of cheekpieces (on last twice) could also spur Addictive Dream on - even though he previously looked in need of some help but horses are weird animals and it could be a positive. The ground shouldn't pose an issue, he's well positioned in stall 16 and a solid pace to run at is virtually assured, which he wants. 20/1 looks like a price that's much too big for him and I'd imagine that 14's would be fair whilst 10's would be correct - although you couldn't price him at that purely on his latest run. Medium each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run into one of the 5 available places at least.

x PyRo

Skipping the Leger, looks impossible. If any of Brown Panther, Sea Moon or Seville win, I'll be happy. Preferably in that order too!

3:45 Doncaster - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower)

Final selection of the day and I'm going to side with Eton Forever, as he returns to the scene of his greatest success. Roger Varian's very lightly-raced 4 year old landed the ultra-competitive, 22-runner Spring Mile handicap over this C&D on his seasonal debut (on just 5th start). In the end, he powered away to a 3¾ length success, beating some top-notch animals in the process. The next 5 home have all won since and the 2nd placed horse, Dance And Dance, is now rated 108 and was last seen coming a ¼ length 2nd of 8 in a Group 3 contest. The way in which Varian's charge won at the time was in the manner of a Group performer and there was sure to be more to come.

Eton Forever ran solid yet unspectacular races next twice, both at Ascot. The first was at Listed level a few weeks later and although he ran up to his mark, he was still 9 lengths behind Side Glance over a mile. That horse won a Group 3 when last seen and the second placed animal won a Listed handicap off a mark of 104 next time out. The horse directly behind my selection for today's race also won a Listed contest next time out and the bare form is solid.

On his next outing - over the same C&D - Eton Forever tackled the 28-runner Royal Hunt Cup, in which he was sent off as a 14/1 shot. It was a big advantage to be drawn high that day and although stall 15 wasn't disasterous, it wasn't brilliant either. However, he traveled into contention going best of all 2f out before fading into a 6 length 5th and it rated as a solid performance without being brilliant. Some horses just don't take to Ascot though and he could be one of them, so the return to Doncaster could work the oracle if all goes well.

It's fairly obvious that Eton Forever does his best work when fresh, so to see Roger Varian giving him a 3 month break since his Royal Ascot exertions has to be seen as a plus. Varian also has his animals in good form of late and had 2 winners and a second from 4 runners yesterday. He has always said that his animal would be better on faster ground and when he won the Spring Mile in April, it was described as "dead, slow and sticky" - with one jockey saying it was "the worst I have ever seen it here". If the trainers comments are correct, the performance could be even better than the bare figures and the likely quick ground he'll get today will be spot on.

This race doesn't look the toughest despite having some useful animals lining out and I could only give chances to a few others. Roger Charlton's lightly-raced 3 year old, Cry Fury, is the obvious danger but he's up 9lbs for winning a messy affair in a 6-runner race over 1m 2f at Goodwood a month ago and 7/2 looks much too short. He's useful but this also represents a step up in grade and it could be tough for him. His price alone would make me avoid and it seems as if he's not bred to be a miler. Eton Forever looks the one to beat despite running off a mark of 103 and I think he can take this before going on to Group success next year. The lack of any out-and-out pace is the only reason that this isn't a maximum bet, as I think he's an exceptional talent with a lot more to come. If the gallop was assured, he'd be around the 5/2 mark in my book and the 5's about him at the moment make it look a risk worth taking. Medium stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

sundancekid91

Jeeez you have an incredible take on it all!Cheers for the all the different aspects.I'm only new to these forums ( so i don't know how to like your last post!ha ) but the information i've gathered on some of the threads in unreal!Do you do any laying at all?I just started up an account 2 weeks ago and ive over doubled my bankroll.I was pretty much just laying favourites under 3.5 but i had no real staking plan!With your assesment of horses you could pretty much rule out 70% of the horses!ha...abit drunk ( hence 4:00)!

3ndahalfof6

gl sir, were still goin nicely.

el_greco

Very nice Pyro, he didn't even break a sweat!

x PyRo

Wouldn't you know well that the small stake would win! Some performance from him, looks class.

Derek!

Nice one Pyro, i'll be havin a few pints on you tonight.

thesandeman

Nice one Pyro. Thats what I like to wake up to (seeing as Ive nothing better :-( ).

x PyRo

Feck it.

restingpilgrim

thought you had it when he burst up near side

Killed

I thought it was going to make it, unlucky

restingpilgrim

even worse when winner tipped by pricewise lol

restingpilgrim

see Eton Forever tipped up by Mr Taylor as well. Hopefully this will not jinx it

budgemook

Profit is profit man!

p_man1

great tipping yet again pyro, been following from afar for a few months. Am amazed at the detail of your research.

Keep up the good work.

x PyRo

restingpilgrim wrote: »

see Eton Forever tipped up by Mr Taylor as well. Hopefully this will not jinx it

That's that bet gone. :-( Me and him never click.

budgemook wrote: »

Profit is profit man!

It is surely! But they're the bets that differ between brilliance and being average. Could of done with that and thought he was going to get it. Ah well, there'll be other days when a similar one gets up.

p_man1 wrote: »

great tipping yet again pyro, been following from afar for a few months. Am amazed at the detail of your research.

Keep up the good work.

Cheers for the message P, much appreciated. You can (not always obviously!) get out what you put into this game, so it's well worth trying to know it inside out - I've plenty to learn though. Also the fact that it's great fun makes it even better! :-)

x PyRo

Didn't back him but what a run by Brown Panther - gutted he didn't win but that was a brilliant effort when they went so fast early on. Class horse.

Soarer

You're like the stock Market. It was very tempting to sit out today, but you always come good in the end!
Just need Eton to come in now and my 4 way (including Brown Panther) e/w accumulator pays! Totally jinxed it now like!

Does anyone know a good iPhone app for calculating bets? Trying to see what the possible payout could be.

x PyRo

Jinxy Taylor strikes again. Eton came second.

+15pts on the day.

That's more like it.

Soarer

You beautiful man!

x PyRo

I'm actually exceptionally ugly. :-(

:pac:

3ndahalfof6

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm actually exceptionally ugly. :-(

:pac:

The way your going you will have so much spunduluxes you will become beautifull to all, male and female and the other sources, sheep, moos and the odd filly, the later only see the inner beauty.

Soarer

That 4 way acc I mentioned earlier worked out at around 64/1!
Coulda been a whole lot more, but beggars can't be choosers!

restingpilgrim

What did you make of Born to Sea Pyro ?

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm actually exceptionally ugly. :-(

:pac:

Ugly like a fox!

x PyRo

RP, I'll get back to you - haven't really looked at his run properly.

---

Finally, a change of luck. Trumpet Major put in a smart performance to score in the opening Group 2 contest at Doncaster, showing a smart turn of foot before staying on strongly to the line. The race panned out as expected, as they went slow enough early on and it turned into a sprint towards the end. This definitely suited Richard Hannon's colt and his speed came to the fore. There should be more to come from him and he looks a smart prospect for the future, especially when getting his favoured fast ground.

It seems as if there's plenty of stamina on the dam side and although he has so much speed now, he'll be getting a mile and possibly further as a 3 year old. He's not the best juvenile the yard have but he's not half-bad at all and should be winning more Group races in time. If it somehow happened that there was fast ground in the Dewhurst next month, he should really take up that engagement. +10.00pts from a 1pt bet @ 10/1.

Now for the one that got away. Addictive Dream bounced back to his best in the really competitive 21-runner, 5½f Portland Handicap. Walter Swinburn's charge was backed before the off, eventually being sent off as a 14/1 shot. Having got a nice position in behind the strong pace, Frankie Dettori soon had the 4 year old chestnut traveling exceptionally well (despite the ground being a bit lively for him). The pair came with what looked like a winning run in the closing stages and they traded at 1.13 before that effort petered out. He finished 3rd in the end, just ½ a length behind the winner and it was a very good performance. Dettori got a fine tune out of him and so nearly hit the jackpot for me. It wasn't to be but a +8.00pt profit from a 2pt e/w bet @ 20/1 will suffice. It could of been brilliant though.

Eton Forever was the final selection to run and Roger Varian's charge was exceptionally well-backed throughout the day, eventually going off as a 9/4 shot. However, he was tipped up by Hugh Taylor and every single time I end up on the same horse as him, they lose. The same happened here as this 4 year old ended up coming 2nd. It was still a very, very good performance though - as the race was run all wrong for him and he really needs to chase after a solid pace. It turned into a sprint and although he hit the front inside the final furlong, he couldn't extend in the closing stages and got mugged by the fast-finishing Godolphin runner. Can't complain though, as it was a fine effort and the horse put it all in. He just found one too good and that horse was suited to how things went. There'll be other days, more than likely next year when he'll surely tackle Group races - possibly over 1m 2f, which is a trip he'll get.

+15.00pts on the day and normal service resumed, but for how long!

Despite some awful luck and awful judgement, the 4 day festival ended up seeing me break even. Doncaster is a track that I just can't get my head around and I find it hard to call the races right (not with regards to winners, just how things will pan out - who'll be favoured, etc).

From a total of 14 bets - 2 won (9/2 & 10/1), 3 came second (5/1, 5/1 & 6/1) and 2 came third (8/1 & 20/1), with a further 7 unplaced. It wasn't a bad effort with so many getting involved but the last day really saved me. I just need to get my head around that track and find horses who will be suited to how the races were run - as that proved impossible until day 4.

The stats will be updated soon, just haven't got around to doing it yet - I'm lazy!

5:15 Goodwood - Tagula Night - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill)

15 runners are set to line up for this competitive 6f handicap and last years winner, Tagula Night, could be primed to run a big race if the ground doesn't quicken up too much between now and race time. Walter Swinburn's 5 year old gelding was an impressive 2½ length victor in the 2010 running of this race off a 2lb lower mark (well-supported) and despite recent form seeming to suggest that he's not going to make too much of an impression, I'm willing to take a chance. This is usually his time of year - with all 4 wins coming in August or September - and he shaped much better than his finishing position would suggest last time out.

Tagula Night ran over this C&D last time out in a more competitive Class 3 Handicap and although he failed to beat a rival home, he may have paid for racing against the rail - which seemed to be the slowest part of the track, despite the second placed horse taking the same path (set good fractions towards the front). Swinburn's charge just seemed to get done for toe in a race that wasn't run at an overly solid pace and he usually needs that to get involved. Today, there doesn't look to be a whole lot of out and out pace, but with the big field containing plenty of prominent racers, I'm hopeful that a couple of them will make it a true test at the trip.

Tagula Night looks exceptionally well handicapped now, as he began racing this year off a mark of 87 and then got put up to 91 by the handicapper after a staying-on ¼ length 2nd to the then in-form Solemn over 5f at Nottingham, a C&D which I don't think is ideal. That run was also after a 259 day lay-off, making it look all the more impressive. Since only running solid, unspectacular races since then, he has tumbled all the way down to a rating of 82, with the capable Sean Levey taking off a further 3lbs to leave him looking even better at the weights (horse also drops into a 0-85 for first time since winning this - and this is his level).

Since running last time out, he's effectively 10lbs better off with Oneladyowner (4/1 fav here) for a 7 length beating - which would of been shorter if it wasn't for him being hampered - and given how Swinburn's animal didn't run to his best there (not even close), I think the form can be swung around here. Connections now replace his tongue-tie/visor combination with a hood and that looks interesting, as if it has the desired effect and perks this fellow back to his best, he's in with a massive chance (doubtful that it'll be that simple!).

The jockey on board today - Sean Levey - isn't in great form of late but he's not exactly getting too many top rides and plenty of his runners have went close, so hopefully he's due a bit of luck. He's a good jockey too from what I've seen over the season. Swinburn is in similar form, as he hasn't had a winner since 30 runners ago, but enough are going well to suggest that it's not a massive issue. The biggest worry I'd have is the jockey's experience of the tricky Goodwood track, as he has only ridden 11 horses here, with 3 placing.

Hopefully he can get Tagula Night to show his best, as conditions will suit and the track definitely suits - so there's no excuses in that regard. The simple matter is that 20/1 is way too big, he should be no bigger than 10/1 against this field, but he's still a risky proposition. I'll play small/medium stakes on him in the hope that he bounces back to his best, because if he does, he wins. Could as easily come last though, so it's not a bombproof selection by any means! William Jarvis' 3 year old colt - Lokies Revenge (16/1) - was the other that interested me at a price.

x PyRo

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!