PyRo's Horse Bets.

overthenest

just back from holidays and i seem to have missed out on a few quid!!!

x PyRo

Chosen One didn't line out yesterday as the meeting was called off. Pity, as he was a surefire winner!

2:30 Haydock - Lunar Phase - 2pts @ 14/1 (WillHill)

A decent 1m 4f handicap to kick off proceedings at Haydock and Lunar Phase looks worthy of taking a chance on. The Clive Cox trained 3 year old filly is well thought of by connections and although she's yet to show her true abilities, I think today will be the first time she'll get a race run to suit. In her 7 race career to date, she officially has 1 win to her name but that was due to Izzi Top being disqualified when they ran in a maiden over a mile at Windsor on fast ground. That horse later went on to finish 3rd in the Oaks and to see Cox's filly get within ½ a length of her was relatively impressive.

Lunar Phase hasn't exactly set the world alight since, as she has only run solid, unspectacular races in handicaps. However, she has had excuses nearly every time she lined out and today could be the first time that things will pan out in her favour. Last twice, over this trip on GS ground (inc. over C&D), this well-bred filly had to put up with racing in very modestly run contests. Her performances were full of promise though and she seems to be a one-paced galloper, which makes it essential that she gets a solid pace to run at. With a couple of potential pacesetters combined with plenty of trackers and pressers, she should get everything to suit and hopefully we'll get to see her fulfill her promise.

Clive Cox would seem to be out of form, as he has only achieved 1 winner from his 23 runners this month. However, a further 10 have placed with many more going close and his horses are going much better than the bare statistics would suggest. He makes a 350 mile round trip to visit a track that he doesn't come to very often and Lunar Phase is his only runner of the day. The talented John Fahy takes the ride and a valuable 3lbs off her mark, leaving her running off what is effectively a mark of 70. This is also his only ride of the day.

Lunar Phase is one of just 3 runners from the Classic generation lining up here and they get a 9lb weight allowance for their age, which seems a massive plus at a stage of the season when I don't think it should be so large. She is stepping out of 3 year old handicaps for the first time but there's no doubting that she's much better than what she has shown to date (current rating is well below what I think she can progress to be) and I'm hopeful that we'll see a much better performance here. It's not exactly a brilliant contest either and 14/1 looks much too big. Of the rest, I wouldn't be too keen to side with any of them, as the race could fall to anyone. Lunar Phase strikes me as one who should be no bigger than 6-8/1 in this company and I'll play small/medium win stakes on her achieving her first proper win. The soft ground should be no issue either and hopefully the race will pan out to suit. If it does, she'll be there or thereabouts. Any market support would also be significant.

Soarer

overthenest wrote: »

just back from holidays and i seem to have missed out on a few quid!!!

Woulda paid for the holidays!

x PyRo

4:30 Haydock - King Zeal - 3pts @ 11/2 (WillHill)

Plenty of disappointing types line up in this Apprentice Handicap and if King Zeal returns to anything like his best, he'll win at a canter. Obviously that's something that isn't assured by any means but the Barry Leavy trained 7 year old has everything he wants to run his race and should do so. Despite his age, he's relatively lightly-raced having missed his 4 and 5 year old campaigns after running four times at 3 - for both Luca Cumani and Michael Wigham. He was an exceptionally expensive yearling, costing €400,000 (current connections paid 800gns!), which is testament to his fine breeding. However, his trainer says he's a "headcase", which is probably why he has proved to be such a disappointment.

King Zeal finally got to show some ability when coming to hand for this yard last year. All in all, he won on 4 occasions and progressed from a mark of 52 all the way up to 79. The switch to prominent tactics seemed to aid this progression and although he's versatile with regards to how he can be ridden, he seems to his best when either chasing the leaders or getting to dominate. He also goes exceptionally well at this track, with form reading 1-2-1-7-3. All bar his last course run have come over this 1m 2f trip and when it's this C&D on GS or worse ground, his form is 1-2-1. Today, conditions are ideal and he should get the option to make the running if that's what tactics connections decide to pursue.

Another thing to note is that King Zeal returns to contest a Class 5 race for the first time since scoring over C&D off a 2lb lower mark last September. I think it's very important for horses to be racing against animals they can actually compete against and this hasn't been the case with Leavy's animal for a while now, as he has been either handicapped out of the equation, outclassed or unsuited by ground/track/trip. He hascome down half-a-stone in the ratings since the start of the season and should be fresher than most with only 5 races being contested by him this year.

There are numerous reasons as to why King Zeal hasn't performed of late and with ground to suit, the track being ideal, the opposition being modest and regular jockey James Rogers back on board (all 4 wins gained under him), a big run can be expected. 11/2 is a far cry from the 9's that he was available at earlier, but I think he should be no bigger than 3/1 in this company and I'll play medium stakes on him achieving career victory number 5. Hopefully he'll do so, even though he's a risky proposition with current well-being a relative unknown.

thesandeman

Oops! Thought you had finished :-o
Had to start an Xp2 line on my bit of paper.
Feeling lucky today for some reason.

hawaii501

Jesus Pyro everytime I don't back a horse you tip it seems to win maybe I'm your bad luck charm :o:o

UrbanSea

Good luck in this one homie,didn't realise he was so well handicapped

x PyRo

No good. Needs to have the button pushed earlier.

MacGabhann

not to worry pyro, have just started following you recently and I'm up on your tips so far and learning when reading your posts, greatly appreciate your insight it's great to be able to read a description not coming from an unbiased source without vested interest (bar the few quid of course)

x PyRo

Good to hear Mac, hopefully there'll be some more money coming your way soon. :-) Looking forward to the Ayr meet so there'll be plenty of good races to try and solve. Cheers for the comment, much appreciated.

---

Poor enough day. Lunar Phase was the first to run and to be fair to her, she ran well despite the finishing position suggesting it was a modest effort. The race was run at a decent gallop but she raced with the choke out for a long time and just wouldn't relax, so to see her finish just over 4 lengths behind the winner was a surprise. When getting an end-to-end gallop on soft-ish ground, I've no doubt that she'll be winning and it'll be interesting to see where Clive Cox brings her now. Personally, I'd be keeping her to stiff tracks and hoping for the best with regards to race-pace. Once she gets everything to suit, she'll get her head in-front and I hope to be on board the money train. Into the tracker she goes.

King Zeal was the strong bet of the day and although he performed creditably to finish in 4th place, I was quite confident of a better showing (he was also well-backed into 7/2f). However, the ground dried out and that didn't suit, neither did the strong gallop set by an outsider who doesn't usually make the running. I wanted to see James Rogers setting the pace before piling on the pressure half a mile out but this never materialized. He did hit the front going alright about 2f from home but he was quickly swamped because he lacks the gears to get the rest on the stretch in such a short space of time. The button needs to be pressed a lot earlier than that and it just didn't happen yesterday. There'll be other days for this fellow and he'll be of interest over the next number of weeks.

-5.00pts on the day. Could of been worse, as I was very tempted to play maximum stakes on the second selection.

Shorter write-ups. Tired enough.

2:35 Beverley - Nomoreblondes - 2pts @ 17/2 (WillHill)

14 runners are set to go to post for this 5f sprint at the stiff Beverley track and Nomoreblondes looks capable of bouncing back to form. Before disappointing at Haydock last time out (had excuses), Paul Midgley's 7 year old mare was thriving on her racing and put in 6 consistently good efforts on the slate between May and July - winning twice. One of those wins was in a seller but the manner of her second win - a 3 length victory in July over this trip at York - was very impressive and that was in a C4 Handicap, albeit one for apprentice jockeys.

Today, Nomoreblondes is 6lbs higher than that win but it's not an insurmountable mark at all, especially as she's dropping down in grade to tackle plenty of inferior animals. The speed that she showed at York to lie up with the pace before taking up the running and scampering clear was impressive and her draw in stall 5 should ensure that she'll be getting a nice position in a race that should be run at a frantic pace (possible that she could make the running despite opposition for lead). There's also the fact that this is the first time in a long time that she lines out on a stiff track and this is taken to suit, as she certainly stays well despite having so much raw speed.

Paul Midgley is in cracking form of late, with 5 winners from 19 runners in the past fortnight and that's obviously impressive. The rest of the trainers who have a runner in this race aren't in great form it seems and trainer form is something that's vital. 5lb claimer Luke McNiff hops back on board and he was the man in control when Nomoreblondes landed the spoils at York. McNiff was also in the driving seat next time out when she finished a 1 length 2nd (of 4) at Haydock to the useful and recently progressive Your Gifted - last seen running off a mark of 91 (then rated 79, but in-foal, hence vastly improved efforts).

McNiff seems like a useful jockey - even though his record in sprints isn't great - and his 5lb allowance should come in very handy. Overall, the 17/2 price-tag is much too big for an animal with most things to suit and if Nomoreblondes is on the top of her game, an 8th career victory could be achieved. I will only play small/medium win stakes as these are tough races to get right but she's one of the more likely types and hopefully she can oblige. Ice Trooper (10/1) isn't without a chance either and could be worth a quid or two.

x PyRo

Feck it, that'll do for Wednesday. The rest of the racing is crap too.

x PyRo

Nomoreblondes ran a poor race at Beverley and although I thought the track would suit, it probably didn't help her at all. She showed good pace for about half of the race but that was it and she dropped out tamely. A return to a flatter track will be needed but I'll be leaving her well alone - as sprinters aren't easy to trust, let alone 7 year old mares. She also prefers quick ground, which may be hard to get over the coming weeks.

-2.00pts on the day. Disappointing effort, but that's racing.

3:20 Ayr - Magic Cat - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Elaine Burke landed a gamble in the process of taking this race last year and Magic Cat could make a bold effort to win it again for her. This 5 year old gelding was an exceptionally useful juvenile sprinter, winning a Listed contest over the flying 5 furlongs at this track on very testing ground. Like plenty of animals who are good as a 2 year old - he struggled to make any impact at 3, despite connections thinking he'd improve with age and eventually land a Group race. That obviously hasn't materialized but he has come back to himself since plummeting down the handicap and has more improvement to come over this 1 mile trip.

Magic Cat comes here on the back of a couple of months away from the track and that's no bad thing, as he ran a cracker on his first run this season, showing that he can go well fresh. He has run on 6 occasions this year (1 win & 3 good runs) and although he disappointed twice, that can be put down to the ground being livelier than ideal. For Elaine Burke's charge to give his best, he needs to have some cut in the ground and that looks sure to happen today, with the ground currently listed as soft, good to soft in places. Anything on the slow side of good will be alright and this track also suits his style of running.

Magic Cat is also very unexposed at this 1 mile trip, as he has only run on 2 occasions over it. The first of those - on GS at Haydock in June - ended in a first place finish, beating the useful Dolphin Rock in the process. The race suited those who were racing handily so to see this fellow come through to win in the shadow of the post was impressive, as he was held up in rear and looked to be making little headway under pressure despite strong urging's from Andrew Elliot. However, he stuck to the task in an exceptionally game fashion to land the spoils from a mark 3lbs lower than what he runs off today and I feel the effort can be marked up a fair bit - so 85 should be an exploitable mark.

Defying top-weight in this handicap won't be easy for Magic Cat but his staying-on 4¼ length defeat at Newcastle - when last seen in July - showed that he's still in good heart (was given exceptionally patient ride in race suiting those on the pace) and that was over 7f in a tougher race. The drop in grade and return to a fairly easy 1m should suit and the ground has definitely come right for him. The yard seem to enjoy having runners here and I'd imagine this is a race that they'll expect to be very winnable (the market should provide some clues).

Plenty of the field demand a lot of respect and for that reason I'll just play small win stakes. It's not an easy race by any means but Burke's charge should be more than up to getting involved and he has plenty to suit. If money came for Breakheart (16/1), it'd be interesting but apart from that, I couldn't be overly confident about too many of the rest. My selection should go well if all pans out in his favour during the race (a good pace would be welcomed) and hopefully it will. Personally, I wouldn't have him any bigger than 6/1 and the 10's available look a fair bit too big.

x PyRo

3:50 Ayr - Take It To The Max - 3pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Once again, I'm siding with a formerly useful juvenile (when trained by George Moore) who has come back to form of late and this time it's a Richard Fahey trained 4 year old gelding - Take It To The Max. After winning twice from 8 outings as a juvenile, this relatively well-related individual struggled to make any inroads into a mark in the mid-90's before ending his 3 year old campaign with a trouncing off a mark of 74. Things didn't look to promising but connections decided to take their horses out of Moore's yard and bring them to Richard Fahey.

It proved to be a shrewd move as Take It To The Max got back into the winners enclosure on his first outing for his new yard when landing a C5 H'cap over a mile at the stiff Hamilton track. He traveled well throughout the race and moved into the lead going best of all about 2f from home and although he idled in front, he still managed to hold on to land the spoils off a career-low mark of 72. A couple of solid placed efforts (off 77 & 79) over a mile at Carlisle followed that win and he got his head in-front yet again when brought to Goodwood. It was a similar story that day, as he traveled well before taking it up and idling in-front but he showed a good attitude to repel all comers and went on to score by ¾ of a length in a decent contest.

Take It To The Max has since been held over 1m 2f at Haydock in a race won by the useful Taqleed but it was a performance worthy of a lot of credit and he was only beaten 2¾ lengths (finished 4th, lost 2 places inside final 75 yards). The return to a mile will definitely suit and Fahey now sees fit to attach cheekpieces, which looks an interesting move. In his SportingLife column, Richard said that "Paul felt he lugged and shirked it a little bit the other day so we're trying some cheekpieces. Personally I think he'll be a 10lb better horse on soft ground, so I think he'll take a bit of beating. I really fancy him."

I would of fancied Take It To The Max to go well anyways but they're mightily positive comments and hopefully another win can follow. There's bound to be more to come from this animal and the 9/2 about him in a race of this nature is very appealing. He's clearly coming back to the top of his game and with the ground taken to help him find even more improvement, a big run can be expected. Paul Hanagan also rides this track better than anyone and he's doing well of late. The form of the Fahey yard would usually be a worry - as they've only had 3 winners from 58 runners in the past fortnight - but the majority have went well and gone close, so I'm hopeful that it's just a case of bad luck more than anything to put too much emphasis on. I don't think this price will be around for too long and medium win stakes are being played. He'll have a race run to suit, the ground suits and the opposition aren't exactly brilliant, so hopefully he'll go well. There's no obvious reason why he shouldn't.

x PyRo

Keeping this last one brief, awfully tired.

4:20 Ayr - Seattle Drive - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

David Elsworth rarely ever ventures up to Ayr and it seems interesting that Seattle Drive is being brought here - possibly in search of genuinely soft ground. This lightly-raced 3 year old was an impressive 2 length winner of a 17 runner maiden on debut last year. That was on testing ground over 7f at Newmarket and he won it fairly easily, beating the useful Fulgur in the process - although I wouldn't pay too much heed to a maiden win.

Since then, Seattle Drive hasn't managed to win in any of his following 6 races, possibly down to racing too freely in steadily run races and also due to a lack of speed to cut it against decent handicappers from his age group over a mile. Now he's upped to 1m 2f in a handicap against his elders and the step up in trip seems as if it will suit. The softer ground that he'll encounter here should also suit and this track is ideal. He's sure to eventually prove that he's up to winning off his current rating of 89 and 7lb weight for age allowance is yet another plus.

David Elsworth has his yard in good form lately and he makes a 700 mile round trip to run just a couple of horses. The other isn't one that I'd give too much hope to and Seattle Drive looks to be his best chance if all goes well. David Allan takes the ride on board this fellow for the first time and it's also his first ride for Elsworth. He's one of the top jockeys around Ayr and will hopefully be capable of getting his mount settled. If he does, I've no doubting that he'll run a big race and 8/1 looks too big. The Fahey runner is a worry, as is the filly looking for a 6-timer but I'm sticking with Elsworth to make his journey worthwhile and land the £10,000 prize - along with a gamble hopefully!

x PyRo

Lovely, get in you little dancer!

Super-Rush

Go.On.My.Son.

markc91

Nice 1 Pyro another winner

rodeo1985

PyRo strikes again! Thank you sir!

The_Kew_Tour

x PyRo wrote: »

3:50 Ayr - Take It To The Max - 3pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Won with bit pf comfort, fair play..

Did not back it but well done to you and whoever did

monaghanman10

nice one.only got it at 3s but still happy days

Derek!

Sound for that one, Pyro + Horse racin = profit

x PyRo

Cheers lads, won handy considering he idled again in front.

Misplaced Fortune is just after winning over at Pontefract. Put her up last time out when she came 4th and was only beaten because she raced on the wrong part of the track.

Pays to put them into the tracker and keep an eye out for when they'll get ideal conditions (which is subject to opinion). Didn't bother posting her because I was so tired. Annoying to miss out on a winner because of sleep!

Super-Rush

So fucking close. Left it a couple of seconds too late.

x PyRo

David Allan looked so weak in the finish there. Should of won that, although the horse didn't really help him much by lugging in under pressure.

Annoying, but that's how she goes.

Roll on tomorrow.

hucklebuck

Hi Pyro,

Great thread mate, kept hearing about your picks in the horse racing forum and only found it now!! - Feeling stupid

Good luck with it, might start a thread myself for National Hunt or Ante Post.

x PyRo

Cheers HB, I was wondering when some of you lads would make it over to the dark side!

You should definitely start a NH thread. The more the merrier for sure. Plus it'll give the lads somewhere else to go when I start losing every cent I have between November and March! :-(

x PyRo

Day 1 of the Ayr festival got off to a good start with Take It To The Max justifying strong support to score a shade easily. Whilst the winning margin wasn't too far (1½l), he was idling in-front after moving into the lead going easily at the 2f marker and really could of won by a lot further if he was the type to extend away from the field. He was well-positioned throughout and the race was run to suit but I'd still fancy him to be capable of winning again over the closing stages of the season. I won't be on though, as I doubt he'll be much value. +13.50pts from a 3pts bet @ 9/2.

In the previous race, Magic Cat wasn't very magical under exaggerated hold-up tactics from Andrew Elliot. He never landed a blow and could only come home in 8th place. The race seemed to suit those on the pace so this run can be forgiven and I wouldn't be surprised if a few games were being played with him anyways. Poor effort though, but he's capable of bouncing back and into the tracker he goes.

Seattle Drive was well-supported from 8's into 9/2 (RP tipped him) and although he finished in 4th place, it was a very solid, promising effort. As is usually the case, David Elsworth's charge took a pull early on and just wouldn't relax. However, after they turned for home, he began to eat up the ground and came into contention going best of all. When push came to shove, he lugged in to his left and didn't put it all in for David Allan. If he had of, I'm sure the pair would of went on to win the race a shade easily but that's how the cookie crumbles. There's plenty more to come from this horse over his new trip and I expect that he'll be winning before too long also. Disappointed not to see a return from this bet but I'll get it back.

+9.50pts on a day that gave me my fifth winner of the month and hopefully there's more to come.

3:20 Ayr - Rothesay Chancer - 2pts @ 9/1 (PaddyPower)

I could probably spend a few weeks trying to solve this race and I'd get it all wrong but Rothesay Chancer could be the answer to this tricky 23-runner, 5f sprint. Jim Goldie is a man perfectly capable of getting plenty out of a horse and he has done exactly that with this 3 year old gelding. He has lined out no fewer than 18 times in his short career (9 times as a juvenile, 9 times this year) and although you wouldn't expect an excessive amount of improvement to come, I think he will eventually prove good enough to win off a mark in the 80's (possibly over further) - so I have to take a chance on him off a mark of 76 with another 3lbs being taken off by a very capable apprentice.

Rothesay Chancer hasn't run a bad race this season, as he has won 3 of his 9 starts, placed on 4 other occasions and finished close up in another couple of very useful races where things didn't go to plan. His first win this season (didn't win as a juvenile) came off a mark of 59 and it's clear that he has come on leaps and bounds over the past few months, finding around a stone and a half of improvement in the meantime. I could spend all day talking about the wins and places but the effort I'm most interested came in a big 17-runner, 3 year old 0-105 handicap at Newmarket last month - albeit over a stiff 6f (runs over 5f here at much easier track).

On that occasion, Goldie's charge finished 4¾ behind Bertiewhittle and that horse barged into my selection on a number of occasions when coming through to win the race. Had he not done that, Rothesay Chancer would of finished a lot closer to the horses ahead of him despite being 4lbs out of the handicap and running with an inexperienced 7lb claimer on board. Overall, the form of the race is pretty bombproof and now the Scottish trained gelding gets a chance to run off his correct mark (5lbs lower than that run) in a weaker grade against a field without so many potential improvers (although plenty of potentially well-handicapped types line up).

Rothesay Chancer has disappointed since when favourite at Musselburgh over this minimum trip last time out, but that race favoured those on the pace (as that track can) and he was the only one flying late on from the rear even though it was an impossible task. I get the suspicion that he has been lined up for this race by the top Ayr course trainer and 5f around here on dead-ish ground should suit, especially with the likely strong gallop being in his favour. He'll get plenty of cover from stall 14 and looks ideally positioned with regards to closeness to pace. Gary Bartley also gets on very well with him having been the jockey on board for all of his 3 seasonal wins and I think they're capable of getting another here. 9/1 isn't an amazing price in a race of this nature but it's a shade too big and this horse should give me a run for my money at the very least. Small win stakes, as it's hardly worthwhile going each-way. Of the rest, they're all dangers!

bradlente

10 on bet365 man,Just thought I'd let you know.;)

edit-or not.....10s on oddschecker but actually 8's when you go in,So you've got your full value anyway!

x PyRo

It's not. Oddschecker is wrong.

bradlente

x PyRo wrote: »

It's not. Oddschecker is wrong.

Yeah its a bit wierd,I presume the blue shade means its changed or something?

Got on her at pp anyway,Once again cheers in advance for another value winner:D



(jinx:eek:)