PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Does surely! Sometimes it's wrong so I make sure to check the prices before putting them up.

Hopefully he'll go well and best of luck. :-)

bradlente

I should've known better than to question your yoda ablility to find value:o

This race looks a tough one.Be one of these if he comes in I'd say

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lO2-nloXdQ4/Tl5bkRLPWcI/AAAAAAAAA8k/lGAT-BpPT6M/s1600/****_yeah_.jpg

Also just realised how much I hate the word lad,**** me its annoying!(replaces with man:-))

Soarer

Pyro > Odds Checker!

x PyRo

3:55 Ayr - Esprit De Midas - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

You can't get much tougher than these big-field sprint handicaps and with no less than 27 runners lining up here, it's exceptionally tough to solve the puzzle. However, it seems as if there'll be plenty of speed coming from the low-middle stalls and those drawn on the far side may well be favoured. That's what I'm hoping for anyways, as I'm siding with my old favourite Esprit De Midas, who's drawn in stall 9 and comes here representing the seemingly out-of-form Dandy Nicholls team. I don't like backing animals from stables who aren't going well but the price makes it a risk worth taking and this fellow has everything to suit - now he just needs to show he's still the same talented horse that we saw last year.

Esprit De Midas hasn't shown his best since joining the Nicholls string from Kevin Ryan's yard at the beginning of May (claimed for £15k). However, he has only run 3 times since then and only once in a handicap for the Sprint King - one in which he had valid excuses (fast ground + Epsom's tricky track = defeat). If we go back and look at some of his 2010 exploits then everything looks a lot better, as he's an exceptionally useful horse on his day. His only 2010 win was over this 6f trip at Haydock when the soft ground came out to play nearly a year ago to this day and a repeat of that effort will see him go close (won shade comfortably despite numerous problems in-running).

Esprit De Midas also ran a cracking 2nd to Mac's Power (strongly fancied for the Gold Cup) when they ran in a 21-runner handicap at Doncaster (on decent ground) in October '10 and that's another effort that - if repeated - would see him win this (also 4lbs lower now). It's all very easy in theory but he's a class horse on his day and there's no reason to think that he can't get involved. He comes here on the back of a comfortable, confidence-boosting win in a claimer at Caslisle last time out and despite the grade, it's not a bad run to come here on the back of (showed much more and ran above his mark - which is promising). It should do his confidence the world of good and the return to a flatter track could see him in an even better light. He also hit the front too early last time out and he'll enjoy being held onto for longer on the back of a solid pace here.

This is the time of year in which it's best to catch him in the big sprint handicaps and his record suggests that he really enjoys the hustle and bustle of it all. He's well handicapped, ideally suited by ground conditions, ideally suited to a track like this and definitely suited by how the race will be run with regards to pace. It's just a question of whether Esprit De Midas will prove to be well positioned from stall 9 but he has plenty of pace-setting stablemates around & about him and this should ensure he'll get a race run to suit. Assuming he gets a nice toe into the race and isn't inconvenienced by the draw, I'm quite certain that he'll put up a bold showing.

Adrian Nicholls is on board for his father and he took the reins for the first time when guiding Esprit De Midas to that comfortable claiming success last time out. That could be viewed as a positive too and hopefully this was the long-term plan for him and that he's the stables main hope of success here (seems likely to me). I certainly think he's more than up to getting involved and with 5 places being paid alongside a fancy price of 16/1, I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can run to his best. There's no doubting that he's got the ability to win, it's just a question of luck in a race like this and plenty of hope that the stable have him spot on to run his race. Anything down as far as 10/1 is an acceptable price (in my opinion of course) and hopefully the ground doesn't dry up too much, as that would be most unwelcome. Again, there's way too many dangers to list. La Zamora would interest me if she's waited with (might put a few quid on in-running if she is) and 20/1 looks a bit too big.

x PyRo

That'll do. Don't have a great feeling about today so I'll keep the bills for a raid of the layers on Saturday. (wishful drinking!)

stiffler123

Thanks for yesterday Pyro and I will follow you again today as usual. Would be interested in your view on this horse though, is he worth the hype?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DYgru8L1Ko

x PyRo

Cheers Stiffler, hopefully there's some more to come. :-)

Can't not be impressed by him but I generally struggle to gauge how good 2 year old's actually are, unless they've run 4 or 5 times - like Trumpet Major, etc. Exposed and out-of-form handicappers ftw!

Plenty of guess work about how he'll end up but he seems to have a bundle of speed and a decent turn of foot at the moment. Ran quite green too so you can be 100% certain that he's much than the bare performance there. Beat very little in that race I'd say, but visually it was quite promising.

I wouldn't mind holding fancy prices about him in the Guineas at all. Just haven't a clue how to find an angle into how good he is. He'll be no STS anyways!

stiffler123

Cheers for your input man, I'm a sucker for pedigrees myself. It was a sad day indeed when I learned that Istabraq was castrated:(.

Derek!

Youv already paid for my weekends sessions but heres hopin for another good day tomorrow

x PyRo

Nice one D, fingers crossed. :-)

stiffler123 wrote: »

Cheers for your input man, I'm a sucker for pedigrees myself. It was a sad day indeed when I learned that Istabraq was castrated:(.

Pity I can't say more. I just find those 2 year old's hard to pin down and I'm usually wrong when I take a punt and say they'll be good! Will be interesting to see how he develops because unless it's my vision, he doesn't look overly big.

Oxx seems to think that he's more speedy than STS was at that age so it'll be interesting to see if he even runs past a mile at any stage if he's actually up to winning a Guineas. Would be no better man to get him to go the extra yardage anyways but he's by Invincible Spirit, which would surely put doubt into him staying the Derby trip?

I'm not one for knowing an awful amount about breeding (know a bit, will learn more at some stage!) but from what I've seen from the video he seems to roar speed rather than staying prowess. Quite liked the way he moved up the hill despite being green. Could be pure class, albeit over a mile - hopefully over further.

Too much guesswork anyways (more than normal!). Will need to see him again.

Off to the bed, all the best men. Fingers crossed for a winner.

FOXFISH1

Chancer drifting out to 14/1 in the last few mins...

UrbanSea

Drifting like a barge.

He's nearly 20/1 on BF

Happy Gilmore

Finished 5th just outside the placing. Unlucky

x PyRo

Ran a solid race. Was the only one waited with that made any inroads into the pace. Going to keep an eye on him for sure. Pity Goldie is impossible to get right.

Looks very hard to make ground off the pace. Doesn't bode well for Esprit.

x PyRo

Placed. Feck.

Soarer

Feck nothing!
Profit is profit!

Thanks once again.

x PyRo

But I thought he'd win. :pac:

They're the bets I need to come in first. :-(

Derek!

Thanks again Pyro, more money for the weekend
And dont worry with you the next winner is never far away

x PyRo

Cheers for the encouragement D. :-) Nice to make a little bit of profit on the day anyways.

Creeping up towards 250 points profit for the season. Targeting 300pts by the end of the season. Would love to reach that, hammering Hugh Taylor in the process!

Derek!

Fair play man, that's pretty amazin stuff and you deserve it with all the work you put in.
I just wonder how you dont have the bookies slashin there prices yet
not that I mind obviously, I think you should go and drink some of that profit

x PyRo

It's well worth the effort, especially with so many people looking in. Just annoying when the losing runs come out to play but that's to be expected.

80%+ of my selections are very well supported (more than just a point or two) in the market so what's influencing that is something I don't know. The other ones that aren't supported are either outsiders or on big racing days where it's much harder to move the market.

Usually you need to be on a big platform to get the prices slashed without money even being laid by the bookmakers. Hoping to get to that level sometime, preferably without prices disappearing straight away!

naughto

did him ew at 16s so iam happy thanks man

Derek!

That's were your kickin HT's ass when it comes to people who want to follow you.
In sayin that your not that far behind him IMO, one day we might be lookin at you on ATR if you keep this up!

and in case your wonderin I'm as serious as a heart attack.

x PyRo

Cheers D. :-)

---

Another good day at the office with Esprit De Midas running a great race to land the place money. He came home in 3rd position - just beaten by a ½-length - putting in a very solid effort to chase home the Fahey horses. If the races weren't favouring those directly on the pace, he may have got to them but I can't complain and the each-way returns from 16's aren't bad. There'll be other days for him when getting a solid pace to run at on soft ground and he's very well-handicapped at the moment, especially as Nicholls should be able to pull out some more improvement from him.

Rothesay Chancer ran a solid race after drifting out to 14's in the market, eventually coming home in 6th place (3rd in his group) - beaten by just 3 lengths. He did the best of those held-up on the stands' side and would of ran into a place at least if there didn't seem to be a bias towards those who were forcefully ridden (especially in this race). The general consensus is that he needs further but 5f on softer ground in a race where the pace collapses will see him land a nice prize and into the tracker he goes. He's also well-handicapped and open to more progression, so it'll be interesting to see how he develops.

+4.00pts on the day.

The Ayr Silver Cup

2:15 Ayr - Valery Borzov - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill, 5 places)

Another exceptionally tough 6f handicap here and no fewer than 27 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win the £22,000 pot. With plenty of pace being drawn in the low to middle stalls, I think it may pay to side with those racing on the far side - the side which came up trumps in the Bronze Cup yesterday, albeit only by a short-head. The other potential angle to look at is the favouring of prominent racers in yesterdays races, with both of the big-field sprint handicaps being won by horses racing right on the pace and the horses filling up the places doing likewise. That doesn't necessarily mean the same will happen today but it may well occur and it's a handy way of discarding plenty of the runners.

Richard Fahey lines up with a total of 7 runners here and trying to read his intentions is impossible. However, he bids to win this race for the third time in five years and I'm backing him to do so with Paul Hanagan's choice - Valery Borzov. The stats aren't on this 7 year old's side, as no horse aged older than 5 has landed the spoils in the past 10 years but many battle-hardened, older animals have filled the places in that time and I'm hopeful that this fellow can buck the trends here. He certainly has the profile of a horse who could run a cracker if on the top of his game and recent efforts suggest he could well be.

On his penultimate outing, Valery Borzov broke a losing streak that had stretched well over 2 years when scoring with a bit in hand over the stiff Hamilton track at the end of August (ran around in-front before asserting close home, better than bare result). That was only a C4 contest and this is obviously a lot tougher from effectively an 8lb higher mark with top 3lb claimer Lee Topliss hoping off and Hanagan on board once again. However, he has previously landed big-field handicaps off mark of 92 & 97 (with Dandy Nicholls) when tackling very testing conditions, so a mark of 90 is certainly not beyond his capabilities. This easier track on softer ground will also help and I'm quite sure that he's up to running well past this mark on his day, enough to run into a place at least.

Valery Borzov comes here as a much fresher horse than most having only lined out on 4 occasions so far this season. He has run well on all bar his most recent outing and I can forgive that run, as he paid for chasing a crazy 5f pace over 6f at York (ground possibly not ideal also). Paul Hanagan said to Richard Fahey that he rode him all wrong and I'm more than happy to pass over that outing. If building on his penultimate run, there's no doubting that he's up to running a good race and therefore 20/1 looks like a price that's too big. The possible bias towards prominent racers is another plus, as he likes to be up there and can both track the pace, press the pace or make the running. I'd favour him doing the latter as it seems awfully tough for anything to come out of the pack in this ground.

The key to the performance of Valery Borzov is soft ground and if it rains even more, this price won't be about for too long. Paul Hanagan picking him ahead of the rest is surely a plus and Fahey has reported that his charge going well at home. The sit in stall 9 should be a grand place to be and he has plenty to suit, more than most 20/1 shots in the field. I'll play small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll go well. My old favourite Cheveton (14/1) is in with a great shout if getting a nice tow into the race from his high draw but I've a feeling the far-side will be favoured and I'll stick to my guns with that. Ginger Ted (33/1) is another who looks capable of getting involved if he's able to make up ground on the leaders from his likely position towards the rear but that's what has put me off backing him. It may just prove impossible to do so and it's too big of a risk, although he is a massive price, so a tiny stakes bet will do no harm. Regardless, hopefully the Fahey/Hanagan partnership will be the one to come up trumps.

thesandeman

Something strange happening with Ginger :-o
Since you posted its gone from 33to20 with BS, 25to22 with PP and 25to33 with Lads.
Id nearly bet on coming 5th seeing Lads are only payin 4places.

hawaii501

Yay, I did Espirit de Midas so the mockers are hopefully gone now!!!:D:D:D

x PyRo

The Ayr Gold Cup

3:20 Ayr - Brave Prospector - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Boylesports, 5 places)

Another crazily tough handicap here and I'm going to take a chance on Brave Prospector coming back to form. I've always thought quite a bit of this 6 year old but he hasn't done much of note since leaving Jane Chapple-Hyam in June to run under the guidance of Richard Fahey. However, he now returns to a more conventional track for the first time for this yard and he's so much better on these flat, galloping tracks - as his record suggests. This alone would be reason enough to take a bit of a punt at a massive price but he's also getting some cut in the ground, which is no bad thing at all (even though previous connections say he's a fast ground horse).

Richard Fahey said in his SportingLife column that "Brave Prospector doesn't seem to want to race, he tends to sulk. We're going to try and be positive with him to get him to run a good race." The last bit is what I want to see, as the return to positive tactics would surely help him. All 3 of his turf wins have come when tracking the leaders (in rear all starts for this yard - at tracks favouring front-runners) and although he seems capable of running decent races when waited with, I'm 100% sure that he's much more effective when running down the pace at an earlier stage. His ability to get further than this trip is also a plus and this should provide an adequate stamina test, even though he's not lacking for speed at all. It's just a question of whether he puts it all in.

Brave Prospector has numerous efforts that would see him run a solid race here. He has even finished a close up 3rd in a 20 runner Group 3 contest when waited with towards the rear (traveled best into contention, effort petered out after being messed about) and although that was a couple of years ago now, his ability is still bound to be there. It certainly looked as if it was when he was 3rd in a 6f Listed race back in April and despite recent efforts (last twice) at the tricky Goodwood track being poor (ran a weird race there before), it's easily forgiven. He's also running off bottom weight here from a mark of 97 and when he's on song, there's no doubting that he's much better than this mark.

It'll be very tough for Brave Prospector to beat some of the classy and potentially classy animals that line up here but 50/1 is just a fair way too big for a horse with plenty of talent. Tony Hamilton takes the ride and he's prone to the odd big-priced winner and there'd be no better place to get another one! Minimal each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run a good race. It wouldn't be one bit surprising to see him disappoint though, so it's not a bet that I can even be confident in to run decently. Of the rest, High Standing (22/1) was my second choice and isn't without a chance of going well.

bradlente

Down to 33 on Boyles now Pyro,gotem at 50s on Betfair e/w.I'm not sure how many places they are paying out though.

x PyRo

GL dude. :-)

3:40 Newbury - Night Carnation - 3pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower)

Andrew Balding has his yard in better form of late and one of his best animals - Night Carnation - comes back out to play in this Group 3 contest over the flying 5 furlongs. I've earmarked this one as a potential Group 1 performer and although she faces a tough task here against some useful older horses, I can't help but think that there's a lot more to come from this lightly-raced 3 year old filly. The easier track has to be considered a bit of a worry (stiff 5f possibly her optimum) but she's going to get a great toe into the race and that's exactly what's needed to see her perform to her best, so a chance shall be taken.

Night Carnation comes here on the back of a 2½ month lay-off since winning impressively at this level when running at Sandown. In hindsight, she had plenty to suit that day with a good draw benefiting her and hindering her main rivals. However, on the other end of the scale, she was running on ground that quickened up a fair bit during the day and connections were really worried about that, as they're adamant that she's a slower ground horse. So to see her come home as a comfortable 1¾ length winner on ground that isn't ideal really proves how good she is - despite things working out to suit in other areas. In that race, she traveled like a dream on the back of a strong pace and showed a brilliant turn of foot to put distance between herself and the nearest pursuers before staying on strongly up the Sandown hill.

The break that Night Carnation has had wouldn't worry me at all, as she was ultra-impressive when winning first time up this season in a handicap off top-weight, also at Sandown over the minimum trip. That actually rated as a better performance than her Group win and I've no doubts that she'll be ready to run her race here, it's just a question of whether connections will leave a bit to work with as her intended target is the Prix de l'Abbaye out in France. It'll be no mean feat to get the better of Deacon Blues here, as he has looked quite impressive last twice. However, I'd question what he beat and the fall back in trip to 5f is a step into the unknown. He seems to posses a hell of a lot of speed, so it may suit but I wouldn't like to be taking 7/4 about him. It's just too risky and he has to give my selection 4lbs, which won't be easy either.

Medicean Man is another good horse lining out, but is he best at Ascot? I'd say so and he's a similar price to the Balding filly, so I'd prefer to take him on here too, even though he's another with plenty to suit. Jeremy Gask also has plenty of horses under-performing at the moment and I don't particularly like seeing that. Night Carnation looks to be the one to side with. She's got it all - a great cruising speed, a solid turn of foot, the possibility of even more progression and conditions to suit in this race. Jimmy Fortune is also on board again and he always gets a great tune out of her, as the pair have won 4 of the last 4 races that they've teamed up for. He also rides the track as well as any and should know exactly what to do, as there won't be much time for decisions. 5/1 is a nice price about her and I suspect she'll go off shorter if there isn't an avalanche of support for the favourite - which is possible. Medium win stakes for me and hopefully she'll win before going on to contest Group 1 races in the future.

No more.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Tough day for everyone today I think Pyro,

Football was horrible today too,