PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

'twas surely man. No harm though, picked up just shy of 60 points profit in the previous 7 days of betting so dealing with an 8pt loss is easy enough.

3ndahalfof6

it sure is sir it sure is, keep er lit.

x PyRo

Poor stuff on Saturday. Valery Borzov showed plenty of speed but couldn't go on in the closing stages, eventually dropping out towards the rear. He got his ground and everything to suit, so it was a very disappointing effort. He's still well-treated and could pop up in a decent handicap over the coming weeks if all is well. I'll be keeping an eye out anyway.

Brave Prospector was very poor, not much to say about him. Doesn't look like the same horse at all.

Night Carnation was a bit too free and carried her head awkwardly once under pressure, possibly down to the ground quickening up and that was never going to suit her at a track like Newbury. She's likely to come on for the run and remains one that I'm very interested in. Poor effort though.

-8.00pts on the day, but the 60pts profit achieved in the previous seven betting days lightens that blow somewhat.

I'm cutting down on the length of the write-ups for a little while. It's time to try and get more sleep!



3:50 Leicester

Going to take a couple here in this 5f sprint, as the pace should be strong and the fast-finishing types will hopefully be favoured by that - especially once they hit the rising ground.

Medici Time is the first one that catches the eye, as he's often seen finishing out his races to great effect and should be very well suited by how this will pan out. He comes here on the back of a disappointing effort at Haydock but that's not the sort of place I think he can defy a mark this high and he won by an easy 3½ lengths on his only C&D run, albeit off a 12lb lower mark. He has improved since though, landing handicaps this season off mark of 81 & 84. His 1 length 4th behind the progressive Medicean Man at Ascot off a 1lb higher mark would be an effort suggesting he can defy this sort of mark and with Tim Easterby's yard going much better in recent days, it could be a good time to side with his animals. This fellow will enjoy the ground and if he can go the early pace, he should be in with some sort of chance at the end. 16/1 looks like a nice price and I'll play small each-way stakes.

Piscean also ran in that race at Haydock a couple of weeks ago and although he finished a fair way back, he shaped well for a long time on what was his first outing for nearly 6 months. He was entitled to need that run and if he can translate his late 2010 AW improvement onto the turf, he's exceptionally well treated off a mark of 88. It's probable that he'll get outpaced in the early stages but the stiff finish is right up his street and with ground likely to be in his favour, the 33/1 about him looks too be a fair bit too big. Another run may be needed but I'll take a chance and play minimal each-way stakes at fancy odds.

Selections;

Medici Time - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports, 4 places)
Piscean - 0.50pts e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports, 4 places)

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Just those for me today.

Soarer

I remember what happened after your last bad Saturday, so I'm all over this!

budgemook

piscean non runner

x PyRo

No good. Medici Time was badly outpaced from the off and was never at the races, although he did keep on a bit towards the end. He probably needs properly fast ground to defy a rating this high and it's doubtful that he'll get too much of that over the coming weeks, so I'll be avoiding him more than likely. Disappointing run. The other was a non-runner.

-2.00pts on the day.

Just one today. It's another poor day of racing. Roll on the weekend.

3:00 Beverley - Steel Stockholder - 2pts @ 11/1 (VC)

The Mel Brittain/Robert Winston combination has managed an astounding 6 winners and 3 places from the last 10 times they've paired up at this stiff track and they could add to that impressive record with Steel Stockholder. This 5 year old gelding didn't reappear until a couple of weeks ago when racing on consecutive days. The first run was poor but his staying-on effort in a hot contest at York (down 2lbs since) leads me to believe that he can get back into the winners enclosure here if he gets a strong pace to run at, which is likely. He's also well handicapped off a mark of 63, 3lbs lower than when staying on strongly into a ¾-length 3rd in this race last year (race was run slowly; doesn't suit). This is the yards only runner of the day and the jockeys only decent ride, so hopefully it'll go well. 11's look too big for this animal in what is a fairly weak race (drops in grade since LTO) and I'll play small wins stakes - which would be larger if he wasn't a tough one to win with.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

............
3:00 Beverley - Steel Stockholder - 2pts @ 11/1 (VC)

.............. 3lbs lower than when staying on strongly into a ¾-length 3rd in this race last year ...........

Good luck with this, was tempted to back it myself but for the winner of the race last year, Ours, being in this too, Steel Stockholder is 5lbs better off than that day but I still just couldn't back him. Fingers crossed he wins though.

Caveman1

Steel Stockholder now 6/1 , the bookies must have an eye on you Pyro:D

angel01

Glad I didn't back this one! :eek:

angel01

angel01 wrote: »

Glad I didn't back this one! :eek:

If you were following the selections consistently to the advised stakes you'd be up a right few quid so you wouldn't be bothered at all if you did have a bit on it

Very strange first post in the Challenges/Logs section.

micksingh

angel01 wrote: »

Glad I didn't back this one! :eek:

Hope you fell just as happy when you miss a winner. Take no notice Pyro.

angel01

micksingh wrote: »

Hope you fell just as happy when you miss a winner. Take no notice Pyro.

I wasn't taking the piss with it, I was just a bit surprised where it actually finished...

RoverJames wrote: »

If you were following the selections consistently to the advised stakes you'd be up a right few quid so you wouldn't be bothered at all if you did have a bit on it

Very strange first post in the Challenges/Logs section.

I actually lurk a lot in this forum, I just don't post that often. I was just surprised where the horse finished, I usually don't often bet on a horse when it is lowish odd's...

I know Pyro has a good history on winning horses... I didn't mean to cause offence...

x PyRo

One can never be surprised by where a horse finishes or how it performs.

They're animals at the end of the day and need so much to be in their favour in order to win/run well.

Regardless of price, they can run shockers if the race is run wrong for them, if the ground doesn't suit, if they're not positioned well on the track, if they don't get luck in running, etc, etc, etc by infinity. All of that is assuming the horse is being let run his race, which often isn't the case (although it'd be impossible otherwise).

No harm anyways and we'll move on in search of the next one.

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Steel Stockholder failed to land a blow yesterday and never looked too happy, as he had to be niggled along quite early to just hold his position. He was well-supported into 6/1 and just couldn't go on when the going got tough. It's possible that his only previous course run flattered him (slow pace throughout) and he'll prove to be a better proposition at an easier track. I'll be keeping an eye out on him to see where he goes next but it's doubtful that I'll be on as he's certainly not one to trust too much. Poor effort, but he's a lot better than that when things work in his favour and I don't think they did this time.

-2.00pts on the day.

3:10 Goodwood - Sharpened Edge - 2pts @ 18/1 (Bet365)

A wide open 6f sprint handicap in the offing here but if Sharpened Edge is ready to compete on the back of a 52 day break, she could make a bold bid from the front to land the spoils at a fancy price. This 5 year old mare returns to run off a mark just 1lb higher than when winning a decent handicap over the minimum trip at Sandown first time up this year and a repeat of that career-best effort would see her have a decent here (although she may have been flattered by having the run of the race on that occasion). The Sandown race was also on quick ground, which isn't thought to be ideal.

Today, Sharpened Edge tackles a furlong further but that shouldn't be a problem at a much easier track and softer ground is a positive for her, as stated previously by trainer/owner/breeder, Chris Mason. She has run poorly twice since winning that race (went too quick first time; blew start next, couldn't lead) but freshening her up for an autumn campaign could pay dividends and she's definitely up to defying this mark when conditions suit. The one worry is the likelihood that she'll be hassled up-front, as she likes to make the running and there's plenty of prominent racers lining up, which has to be a concern.

However, I'll take a chance as 18/1 looks a bit too big and hopefully she'll run a good race. Small win stakes for me, as it's a selection full of risk and she'll either finish out the back or put up a very brave effort from the front. Cathy Gannon being on board is also a plus and it's her only ride at Goodwood before heading off to Kempton for a further 3. Jungle Bay was the other one I found interesting, as he's now dropped back in trip and has conditions to suit. I'm just worried as to whether he's up to winning a 0-80 h'cap, but he could be worth a smaller interest at 10/1.

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Only that one today. Poor enough stuff again.

argosy2006

angel01 wrote: »

Glad I didn't back this one! :eek:

I doubt she was having a go, Geez Winner is coming soon, Maybe i'll back next 5 :P

skeleton_boy

Sharpened Edge was as big as 33/1 now back into 20s :O

x PyRo

She was never given a chance.

Early one for tomorrow.

2:45 Newmarket - Magic City - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Back with reasoning later.

thesandeman

7/2 gone already. Caught 10/3.

x PyRo

GL Sandy. :-)

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Sharpened Edge never stood a chance and certainly wasn't helped by Cathy Gannon's inability to get the blindfold off in time, as this horse needs to bounce out quickly and attempt to make the running. She was quickly under pressure and didn't show very much at all. Possibly the ground/track/trip weren't to suit and she'll be better when it's not so testing. I'll be keeping an eye out on where she heads next as she's definitely handicapped to strike again, especially when left alone at the front of affairs.

-2.00pts on the day.

Short write-ups still.

2:45 Newmarket - Magic City - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Richard Hannon's juvenile, Magic City, hasn't exactly lived up to expectations since his stunning debut win but he comes here on the back of a very unlucky-in-running 3rd of 12 at Doncaster and could make amends if seeing out the 1m trip at this stiff track. That's the big risk, as he was running at an easy 7f (first try at trip) last time out but he did finish full of running under a tremendously stupid ride from Richard Hughes (waited, waited, waited, hampered) and his running style suggests he'll be able to see out this new trip.

Today, he's 6lbs better off with Ghostwriting, the winner of that race, and that should be enough to help Richard Hannon's colt overturn the form - assuming he has no issue with the trip/track combination and gets some luck in-running, which just didn't happen LTO. I'm very confident that Magic City has got plenty in hand off a mark of 88 and could well move back into stakes races next season, especially as he has learned to settle a lot better nowadays. Conditions suit, the race will be run to suit and his yard are going very well, so I feel he's in with a big chance of getting win number two on the slate. Medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

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3:20 Newmarket - Brushing - 2pts @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

Brushing drops out of Group company for the first time this year and Mark Tompkins' 5 year old mare could take advantage here if the quicker ground doesn't inconvenience. She hasn't won since causing a 20/1 shock at this level (Listed) last August, a race she went into rated just 86 having failed land a blow in a handicap off that mark the time before. The way in which she can travel always leaves her in with some sort of chance and if she's on a going day, 8/1 could look like a very big price mid-race.

Brushing has lined up on 3 occasions this year having run at G1, G2 & G3 level, the latter was her all-weather debut in a race that turned into a half-mile sprint and that's not what she wants to happen. A good toe into the race is wanted and although it's not assured here, I'll happily take a chance at the current price. This is the first time that she'll encounter quicker ground in a while and although her best runs have come with cut in the ground, it shouldn't be an issue. She's also lightly-raced this year and could be ready to strike. The yard are going well, Tom Queally hops on board for the first time and the opposition aren't exactly brilliant, so a big run is on the cards. She is a risky proposition though, so I'll just play small win stakes.

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5:05 Newmarket - Dubai Media - 2pts @ 9/1 (Bet365)

This 6f fillies' handicap is likely to be run at a very solid pace and the strong travelling Dubai Media could well be the one to take advantage. Ed Dunlop's 4 year old hasn't won for over a year but she has put in many fine efforts in that time, not least her 2nd placed finish behind the useful Anne Of Kiev in a Listed contest over 6f at Haydock in May - a race which wasn't run to favour her. This race will be run to suit and it just depends whether she's good enough to take advantage against some useful animals, and I think she is.

Dubai Media disappointed in a Listed race last time out but I don't think she looked happy at the Pontefract track and just couldn't get involved from the rear of the field (race suited those on the pace). A return to her previous outing gives cause for optimism, as she was travelling exceptionally well in a 25 runner handicap at Goodwood and may have had a say in things if it wasn't for getting hampered over a furlong from home. Today's race may be a bit tougher with regards to opposition but it will be run how she wants it and connections now see fit to apply a tongue-tie for the first time, which should help. Small win stakes again, as she needs plenty to fall her way in order to win, plus a possible exaggerated hold-up ride from Jamie Spencer adds in more risk! She should get involved though.

x PyRo

Christ, poor day.

Most hold-up horses just never had a chance at Newmarket, more so on the straight track; bar Magic City's farcical race where the winner came from the back but 2nd made the running at 2m pace (nobody wanted to lead) - which obviously didn't suit MC as he was too keen and needs a proper pace to aim at. Didn't get home in the end but he's certainly worth another go at the trip.

All of mine were held up right at the back. Bloody tailwinds didn't help their chances at all.

Even La Fortunata was able to keep going from the front to win over a stiff 6f. I wouldn't normally be keen on her even getting home over a stiff 5. Bizarre.

Hopefully something will go right tomorrow.

Sorry lads.

x PyRo

Poor again. Magic City was totally unsuited by the very, very slow pace in the race he contested. Having been restrained towards the rear of the field from the off, he raced keenly and eventually found nothing for pressure in the closing stages. It proved to be very tough to make any inroads into the pace at Newmarket and given how the race was run, he never stood a chance.

I'll be continuing to side with him over this trip until it's sure that he doesn't stay, as that's still up for debate after today's 1m race turning into a sprint. One thing's for sure, he wants a good gallop to run at and when he gets that, he'll be able to show his best - whether his best is going to prove to be over 1m or 7f is still the question.

Brushing travelled like a dream in her race and Tom Queally was even able to take a good pull on her a few furlongs from home. However, once popped the question, she found nothing and finished a fair way back in 5th place. Disappointing result but she done plenty to be worthy of consideration again, especially when the hold-up horses are going to be suited by how things pan out. Cut in the ground may also be preferred, even though she moved so well on the fast ground until asked to put it all in.

Dubai Media was the biggest disappointment but again, it proved impossible for her to get into contention in a race favouring those on the pace. She needs the pace to collapse in order to run to her best and that just didn't happen here. She's beginning to look very disappointing now but there's plenty of ability there and she's not exactly over-raced, so keeping her on side should prove worthwhile. God knows if she'll get another chance this year though, as fast ground looks to be her optimum and it may be hard to find in the coming weeks.

-7.00pts on the day.

I can't catch a break at the moment, through both bad luck and poor judgement. If I back front-runners, they're hassled and harried throughout and eventually get well beaten. If I back hold-up horses, they're running in races where it's very tough to get into contention from off the pace and they duly disappoint.

Hopefully I'll find one that will go my way soon but it's just so tough to get anything right at the moment. There's a fair chance I'll be taking a break after Saturday's racing.

I'll definitely have the statistics updated on Saturday. The profit for September currently stands at +12.55pts and the seasonal profit is +217.88pts. Hopefully that will rise sometime soon. I could do with every penny going into the NH season! :-( That should be fun...

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1:15 Newmarket - Alsindi - 2pts @ 8/1 (VC)

Clive Brittain has endured a torrid time of it during 2011 but his stable has picked up a bit of form of late, not least his juveniles. In May, June & July, he only managed a single 2 year old winner from 20 runners (all of his other runners were under-performing too; 0-35 in July). In August & September so far, he has managed to get 7 juvenile winners from 31 runners, which represents a very nice return to form for a man who's an exceptional trainer. One worry here is his record at Newmarket, as he has only managed 4 winners from 112 runners, which is awful. He banged in a nice 10/1 juvenile winner in one of those £100,000 Auction races last Saturday at this course, so hopefully that's a good omen.

In this race, the potentially very useful Alsindi is worth taking a chance on based on her impressive 3¼ length victory on debut. That race was run over 6f on testing ground at Yarmouth and Brittain's charge landed the spoils very easily having been backed from 11/1 into 11/2 just before the off. It's clear as day that this 70,000gns purchase is well thought of by connections and I don't think that taking this step up to Group 3 level is beyond her - even though her owner, Saeed Manana, often has his horses campaigned in races where they just can't be competitive.

Alsindi showed a lovely turn of foot to scoot clear of her rivals on her only racecourse outing and given that the step up in trip and introduction to quicker ground should be ideal, there's bound to be a lot more to come from this well-bred filly. Obviously she only has a single maiden run to her name but it was impressive given how she was slow to stride and got plenty of daylight in windy conditions, which isn't ideal. I was also quite impressed with her reaction to getting tapped with the whip when asked to assert, as she picked up almost straight away in ground that wasn't easy to motor on through, especially for a filly having her first run.

Brittain said after the race that Alsindi is one of the nicest that he has and hopefully she'll prove to be capable of winning at this level - preferably in this race! It'll be a tough ask against some useful types but there's nothing overly special in here and 8/1 about this animal looks quite fair. Small win stakes for me, as despite her obvious potential and impressive performance last month, it's a bet full of risk (plus Tom Queally's up and I don't think he's riding well of late). John Gosden's Questing (9/2) would be the next best but looks a bit short to me and I'll side with Clive Brittain to have his second Group winner of the season.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Keep truckin man! the winners will come.

price shortens to 7's immediately on 365!

x PyRo

Cheers dude, fingers crossed something will go in. The price was already 7's there though!

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1:50 Newmarket - Seta - 3pts @ 10/3 (PaddyPower)

9 runners are set to go to post for this Fillies' Listed race and Seta looks to be overpriced at 10/3, especially now that she returns to what I believe to be her best trip, which is a mile. Things haven't exactly went to plan for Luca Cumani's 4 year old filly, as she's held in very high regard and was expected to make a nice Group campaigner, which hasn't worked out at all. However, she's very capable of winning Listed races, as her record of 3 wins from 4 runs at this level suggests.

Last time out, over 7f in a Group 3 contest at Doncaster, Seta made the running when nobody else wanted to take the field along and I don't think she's capable of putting such useful animals to the sword over that trip. She's one who prefers to be taken into the race and I'm hopeful that one of the other prominent racers will make the running here. This is a weaker event anyway and she's the best horse at the weights, so she may not need every little thing to be spot on in order to win.

A return to the form that Seta showed when scooting away to an easy 3¾ length victory when last tried over this trip in a Listed contest (first time up this year) would surely see her have a very big say in proceedings and I think she should be around the 6/4 mark here. Luca Cumani has his string in fine order of late, with 3 winners and 4 places from his last 10 runners. Kieren Fallon is on board as has been the case on 8 of this fillies' racecourse outings and he stated that she was his best chance of the day. He's riding well of late and should be able to get the best out of this straightforward animal.

Dark Promise would be the biggest danger, as the betting suggests, but I'm sure that she'll be better over further and taking 4/1 about her isn't too appealing. She also had the run of the race last time out and I'm not convinced that she has the class of the Cumani filly over this trip. William Haggas' Sooraah is obviously talented but it may pay to be around the pace today and she likes to be held-up, so it's doubtful as to whether she'll enjoy this test. Her Listed win in July wasn't exactly a strong race either, so I'd be wanting a bit more than 6's to get involved. Electra Star, one of two 3 year old's, won a C3 H'cap off 86 last time out and although she was impressive, it's not exactly a mind-blowing run and 5/1 looks skinny. She could get involved but Seta is the one I want to side with and 10/3 looks a very nice price. Medium win stakes for me and hopefully she could oblige.

x PyRo

Last one.

4:45 Newmarket - Viva Vettori - 1.50pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

Taking a chance on the impossible happening here by backing Viva Vettori to win a race on turf, something which hasn't happened in 24 previous attempts. However, it's not for the want of trying and eventually everything will fall into place for David Elsworth's 7 year old, as he's got plenty of talent. Things just need to go right for him (I'd like to see him produced early) and key to that is a solid gallop (to ensure he settles), which is very likely in this 24 runner field. I'm not overly sure where is the best position to be drawn but he's next door to the 5/1 favourite and hopefully it won't inconvenience him.

Viva Vettori comes here on the back of a very disappointing effort over 1m 2f at Doncaster when sent off as a well-backed 6/1 shot in a 16 runner field. Everything conspired against him though, as they went very slow from the off and he was way too keen in rear. The first 5 home all raced prominent throughout and nothing could get into the equation from the back, so I'm more than happy to write that effort off, as it wasn't this fellows true running at all.

Previous efforts - including an unlucky 2½ length 3rd behind Dare To Dance (7/1 fav for Cambridgeshire) - would see David Elsworth's charge in with a great shout here and I'm hopeful that he'll eventually get the luck he needs to win, as he's often stopped in his tracks mid-race or doesn't get a proper pace to run at. Nicky Mackay hops back on board today and that's a plus - as the pair had a good run of consistent results previous to the horse disappointing under Jamie Spencer last time out, although there was little Spencer could do about that from where they were positioned.

Another positive is that David Elsworth has his string in good order of late, despite plenty placing when looking likely to win. He's a trainer I always keep an eye on and sooner or later he'll unlock the door for this fellow. Some useful animals line up in opposition but I don't think it's the strongest 24-runner race that one could find out there and given the fact that Galiando is the 5/1 favourite shows this. He won a modest C4 H'cap when last seen and although he's a lightly-raced 3 year old, I just can't see why he's such a short price. He also lacks experience which is often vital in these fields and overall, his form isn't that of a 5/1 shot. The price is based on trainer prowess more than anything and I couldn't have him, even though he could well win. It's also likely that he'll want much further than 1m 1f.

Viva Vettori looks like the best bet to me and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes on him achieving victory. 5 places are being paid too and hopefully he can run into one of those. Conditions suit, the track suits, the race should be run to suit and the price of 16/1 is just too big for him. He's not trusty with regards to being a win proposition but he's more than capable of making his mark if things just fall his way. I'd love to see Mackay race prominently before kicking on a lot earlier than usually is the case as the horse just doesn't react instantly to pressure and often leaves the impression that he's going to do a lot more than he can. He travels so well at times and his jockeys just wait, press the button and wait again until he eventually finds his top gear - and often that's too late, hence why he's always fast-finishing but never getting up to win. Hopefully things could pan out differently here, but I'd be happy with a place.

prospect

I still have plenty in the PP account thanks to you, so I'm sticking with you.

Don't feel pressured dude, just take it cool and do what you do so well.


[crosses fingers and hopes motivational speech bags me a wad of cash this weekend]

3ndahalfof6

keep er lit sir, we rejoice together and we wait to rejoice together.

x PyRo

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!

markc91

Never doubted ya for a second man well done

SteelyDanJalapeno

Thank you Sir!

Romka

So we have the first winner!!! Two more to go!!!
Thank you!!!!

rodeo1985

great job again sir!