PyRo's Horse Bets.

restingpilgrim

Unlucky just needed a slightly stronger pace

budgemook

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-T1h7J0R-Q

budgemook

So Paddypower seem to have given me a 15 euros free bet that I can redeem at Newmarket. I've already backed all of your selections today. Fancy having a punt with my free money?

I assume I have to use it today, I got no email or anything explaining why I got it

restingpilgrim

Why not put it on viva vettori as well as it is a good price and will make a fantastic return if it wins and you cannot lose any more if not double check as you might be able to bet it on tomorrows newmarket card.

budgemook

The feckin thing is gone from my acocunt now! Probably had to use it before 3:30 or something. Either that or a bug on the website. Very strange.

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments lads, nice to get a winner going into tomorrow. Pity Seta didn't get a good gallop to aim at or she'd of returned as a winner I'd say.

Unfortunately there's a fair chance that we can forget about Viva Vettori if they're going to hold him up again. It seems impossible for most of them to make up ground from off the pace, so he's up against it even more now.

restingpilgrim

Got the place, so not too bad

budgemook

Re that free bet, I mailed PP and got this back:

We were running a promotion today involving the TV races on Channel 4. If your horse finished 2nd in any of the races shown on Channel 4, you received a free bet to this amount to place on the next TV race to go off. Unfortunately this free bet was only valid for the next listed race and expired after that race had run. Please accept my apologies for the inconvenience.

Nice of them to let me know! If anyone else had backed Seta on PP you'd have gotten the same thing.

x PyRo

A winner to report today, with Alsindi putting up a very good performance to take the step up to Group company in her stride. Clive Brittain's juvenile filly was a well-backed 5/1 shot by the time they set off to race and duly obliged with a late, thrusting run up the hill. She only won by a neck but the performance can be upgraded a fair bit I feel, as those on the pace were massively favoured throughout the day and the second placed animal was the one who made the running.

My selection didn't seem at home on the track either and may prove to be better on a flatter track. Connections seem keen to step her up to a mile for a Group 1 in France but I don't think that's a good idea at all, as 7f is her trip (maybe an easy mile would be within her range, it's doubtful though). It'll be interesting to see how she progresses, as this was a fine performance despite things not being exactly ideal and she seems to have a touch of class about her. Nice to see Clive Brittain getting some good results on the board too, as he certainly deserves some luck after a season that went all wrong. +14.40pts from a 2pt win bet at 8/1 (10p R4).

Seta could of done with a better gallop to aim at and if she had of got it, there'd be a fair chance she would of won this race. In the end, she couldn't get past the winner, who took advantage of being left alone up top and dictated a slow pace before quickening it a couple of furlongs out. This seemed to catch Luca Cumani's filly out for a good few strides, as she hit a flat spot before running on again to eventually go down by a length. It was a sound performance though and I can't complain.

Viva Vettori travelled like a brilliant horse in his race, it's just a damn pity that he was held up at the back of the field. He ran on to finish in 3rd place but that was a full 6 lengths behind the first couple home - with a head separating them. The losing distance isn't a true reflection of how he ran though, as it was a brilliant effort considering it was near impossible to get into it from so far back. The day connections decide to persist with prominent tactics and send him on for home earlier than usual is the day that he'll finally win a race on turf. The only problem is that he's a much better horse on fast ground and that'll be hard to come by for the rest of the campaign, although he does cope with most conditions. Great effort from him, can't complain and +4.50pts from a 1.50pts e/w bet at 16/1 - it could be worse!

+15.90pts on the day. That's more like it.

2:35 Newmarket - Shumoos - 3pts @ 8/1 (WillHill)

I'm a sucker for punishment but yet again, I'm giving Brian Meehan's Shumoos another chance to prove that she's one of the best juvenile fillies around. If she's to land the spoils here, an improvement on her usual free-going ways will have to be witnessed but the likely strong pace is going to suit and the return to genuinely fast ground - for the first time since one of the best debut performances from any 2 year old this year - is a huge plus, as I feel this $375,000 yearling is a definite fast ground animal. Whether or not she's a truly up to winning at Group 1 level yet is up for debate, but she looks nicely priced at 8/1 and should put in a big performance.

Meehan's charge has form tying in with today's current 5/4 favourite, Best Terms, as the pair faced off at Royal Ascot in the 5f Queen Mary Stakes (G2). On that occasion, Richard Hannon's filly got the better of Shumoos, who was sent off as a heavily backed 6/5 shot and was deemed to be one of the most likely winners of the week. She only failed by a short-head and given that she always looked to be an animal who'd excel over further, I feel that performance shows that she can cut it with the best, as she's going to prove to be better than that in time.

It's obvious that Best Terms has improved since, as she took the step up to 6f in her stride when winning the Lowther Stakes next time out, at York last month. She ended up winning by a comfortable 2 lengths and defied fancy odds of 11/1 in the process but I'm just not convinced that she's going to be as effective here. Firstly, York was favouring front-runners that week and she made all of the running in a race where nothing got into it from behind. Secondly, the ground was good-to-soft and she faces an entirely different surface here. Then combine that with the fact that this track is much more stamina testing than York and tell me that she's fairly priced at 5/4. Fair enough, she could win but that's not a price that reflects her actual chance, not in a million years.

Shumoos was a fair way back on that occasion but she was too free and couldn't motor on in the ground, so it's an effort best passed over. I'm also convinced that she's going to want a tougher track than York at this sort of level and she gets that today. Last time out, in a Group 3 on the all-weather at Kempton, she showed how useful she can be when landing the spoils by a head despite failing to have the race run to show off her strengths. The winner was allowed to dictate throughout and both quickened and steadied the pace at will. This didn't suit Meehan's free-going filly at all but she still showed great fight to knuckle down and run on to lead under the shadows of the post.

It's not exactly a mind-blowing run or anything like that but there was more than enough to like about it and she comes here on the back of finding how to win again, which bodes well for her chances here. Today, conditions are ideal, the race should be run to suit and she lines up with a real chance of getting involved. 8/1 is a cracking price and I'll play medium win stakes on her achieving victory. If she settles, I've no doubts that she'll run a big race and give me a sweat. Whether Shumoos will settle or not has to be the big worry, but she's worth taking a chance on and can give the in-form Brian Meehan another winner in this race (won it in '04 & '05).

x PyRo

3:50 Newmarket - Sagramor - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

A monster field line up for this £100k handicap as 35 runners are set to go to post. Those drawn in the lower third should be at an advantage here and given how the track is riding, horses racing relatively close to the pace could be the ones to come out on top. Relatively lightly-raced types often go well in this and 99 rated 3 year old, Sagramor, could be worth taking a chance on. Hughie Morrison's charge is well positioned in stall 11 and should relish the fast ground, the step up in trip and the big field.

Sagramor does come here on the back of a very poor performance, as he completely bombed out when last seen running in a big handicap at Goodwood in July, a race in which he was sent off as the 11/2 second favourite. However, he was exceptionally restless in the stalls, raced keenly throughout and therefore failed to give any sort of running at all. He was found to be lame on both of his hind legs and his performance is completely understandable given how everything went wrong for him. I'm happy to pass over that effort and I wasn't convinced that Goodwood was his sort of track anyway.

Previous to that, Sagramor was on a vast, upward curve, landing a handicap off a mark of 85 (17 runner race at Haydock) before following up off 93 in the 29-runner Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. That was on softish ground and given how he's thought to be a much better animal on quick ground, the effort can be marked up. He's also the type to excel over further than the bare mile and this 1m 1f race is usually taken by a horse who will get even further than that. I believe that he will and this uphill finish will suit, as he's always staying on very well at the end of his races giving the impression that he'll happily do the same over longer trips.

Hughie Morrison has since given a near 60 day break to Sagramor and if he's back to the horse he was before Goodwood, there's a fair chance that he'll be having some sort of say in this race. Obviously it's a very tough race to solve but the previous experience of big fields are sure to stand this fellow in good stead and he's lightly-raced having only lined up on 8 occasions. There's bound to be a lot more to come and today's handicap mark of 99 could be exploitable, plus he's getting 5lbs off his back for being up against his elders, which is another positive.

Nicky Mackay takes the ride and although his course record is awful (2-122), I think he's an excellent jockey. He was also the man on board this fellow for his pair of big-field handicap wins. Others of interest include Red Gulch and Questioning but I'll side with Hughie Morrison's charge and hope that he bounces back to his best. It's hard to say what his correct price should be in a race of this nature but 14/1 isn't bad value for him and I'll play medium each-way stakes. Hopefully he'll go well and run into one of the 5 available places at least.

x PyRo

No more, a fairly quiet Saturday for once. Mainly because I'm so sick it's beyond belief. Got a killer headache all day and it won't stop.

ft9

x PyRo wrote: »

A winner to report today

Great reading right there....

Good man!

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

No more, a fairly quiet Saturday for once. Mainly because I'm so sick it's beyond belief. Got a killer headache all day and it won't stop.

Fair play for studying the form and lashing out the write ups when ill, lovely write ups they are too :cool:

sonnky

I have the cambridgeshire narrowed down to Pendragon, Questioning, Maqarat, Sagramor, Albaqaa, Stevie Thunder and Credit Swap.

peel_dat_tatty

hey pyro,
first of all would like to say well done on your success to date. I've been keeping a close eye on your thread for quite a while now and am quite impressed with your deducing capabalities and reasonings.
I have to disagree with you however on shumoos turning over best terms today. The fact is i'm a huge best terms fan (maybe my vision is skewed by profits from him) and cannot see him being beaten. The fact that he started the last race at 11s was a joke considering he had already turned over a few of the shorter price contenders in the queen mary. shes a truly magnificent filly with a huge amount of heart for her modest size. anyhow i wish you luck with your selections today and am looking forward to this 6fs. for me its best terms maximum bet

Killed

I see Valery Borzov is after coming in at Haydock at 12's. Had you considered him today ?

x PyRo

There's a large chance I would of if I wasn't so sick. Didn't even get around to looking at Haydock because I couldn't look at the computer screen for any longer.

Still feeling awful, not helped by how my two ran.

Can't understand why they decided to hold Sagramor up. He never had a chance of getting involved, although stall 11 ended up being a negative as it turned out.

Shumoos just isn't nearly as good as I thought. Giving up on her now.

Might have one or two for tomorrow, hopefully they'll run better.

3ndahalfof6

get well soon, nothing worse.

x PyRo

Cheers 3, it ain't nice but I wouldn't mind so much if my horses had of run well!

---

Exceptionally disappointing day. Shumoos never really threatened to get involved and finished out the back. Again, her keen going ways got the best of her and she refused to settle. She's just not as good as I thought and I'm going to avoid her for a while now. Taking on the favourite proved to be the right thing to do, pity it was with the wrong horse!

As far as I could see, Sagramor was held up and that was his chances done for I feel. The draw in stall 11 ended up being a negative as the high numbers dominated the race and he just couldn't get involved at any stage. He's a lot better than that and I'll be siding with him again at some stage. Poor stuff today, as he came home in last place of the 32 runners! Awful.

-7.00pts on the day.

Stat Attack -

Overall Bank - 440.57pts (+340.57pts)

2011 Flat Stats -

Profit - +226.78pts

Bets - 247
Wins - 28
Placed - 55
Win SR - 11.3%
Staked - 636.00pts
Returned - 862.78pts
ROI - +35.5%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

August Stats -

Profit - +47.63pts

Bets - 22
Wins - 2
Placed - 5
Win SR - 9%
Staked - 52.00pts
Returned - 99.63pts
ROI - +91.25%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

September Stats -

Profit - +21.45pts

Bets - 53
Wins - 6
Placed - 13
Win SR - 11.3%
Staked - 124.00pts
Returned - 145.45pts
ROI - +17.2%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

Couldn't be happier with how the season has went. Hopefully the next month or so can provide another few winners.

Cheers for all the support and comments lads & lassies! It's much appreciated. :-)

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

Shumoos just isn't nearly as good as I thought. Giving up on her now.

Gonna have to put the mortgage on her next time out so!

JONJO THE MISER

Great stats PyRo.

x PyRo

Cheers JJ, very happy with how it has all went. Would of loved to have done better though! Going after a 50% ROI/Yield (not sure which is the correct term) next year!

---

3:35 Epsom - Right Step - 3pts @ 9/1 (WillHill)

First off, a lack of pace in this 1m 2f contest has to be a worry but if it is a steady gallop, it's likely to hinder the majority of this field from what I can see. Regardless of what could happen, I'm going to side with Right Step to bounce back to form, as he comes here on the back of a couple of awful efforts, both over 1m 4f at York. Those performances weren't his true running at all (plenty of excuses to be found) and on both occasions, he wasn't given a hard race once beaten. A return to his best would see his price-tag of 9/1 look a bit silly, but whether or not he will produce his best is another thing.

The drop back to this trip is a big positive for Right Step and he's now getting some leeway from the handicapper, which hasn't been the case for a long time. Today, he runs off 94 and the race before his pair of flops was a Listed H'cap in which he came home in 4th place off a mark of 100 (hated the ground) - having reached that mark on the back of 4 consecutive 2nd place finishes which saw him rise 12lbs in the ratings, testament to his usual consistency despite racing in very good handicaps.

One of those seconds was over this C&D, in which Alan Jarvis' 4 year old colt just found Resurge to be too good, and that's a horse who always saves his best for this track. That was off a 3lb higher mark (97) in a C2 H'cap and a replication of that run would surely see Jarvis' charge go close here, although he had a sound gallop to run after that day. Other pieces of form give Right Step every chance of getting involved here and today he's dropping down to C3 level for the first time in a long time, which is another plus.

Right Step is clearly the class horse of the race and having had no less than 6 seconds from his 19 career outings (only win in a maiden at 2), he's due a bit of luck. Alan Jarvis has his yard in very good form of late and today he sees fit to book Jamie Spencer for what will be his first ride on this fellow. That's an interesting move, as Spencer - who has a 15% SR for Jarvis - hasn't ridden for him since 2008 and both of the horses previous jockeys are going to Epsom today. Spencer seems like the ideal partner for this horse and I'm convinced that he'll be able to get the best of him, it's just a case of whether he's hindered by how the race will be run.

The ground is perfect if it is as listed (good) and the track holds no problems, so I fail to see how he's deemed to be a 9/1 shot. One firm go 11/2 and that'd be more reflective of his chances, although I can find reasons to believe he should be shorter again. The opposition are no great shakes either and the Godolphin horse, Con Artist, would be the one I'm most afraid of. It's impossible to weigh up his chances after something seemed to be wrong with him when last seen (tailed off in May; sent off 7/2 fav), but potentially, he's quite useful if back on song. Regardless, he's a much riskier proposition and looks under-priced, despite being a progressive type in 2010. Right Step looks to be the one to side with and having had 5 weeks off, he will hopefully come back here and prove capable of giving his best. He hasn't been over-raced this season either and surely deserves to get his head in front again (not that that matters). Medium win stakes for me, as I think the price is very wrong but it's still a bet with plenty of risks, so who knows how it'll go.

x PyRo

Final one.

3:20 Musselburgh - Cara's Request - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365)

This is the time of year when everything can fall into place for Cara's Request and although he comes here with the look of a horse badly out of form, I feel that the form is very deceptive. Dandy Nicholls now has a very well handicapped animal on his hands and it's mainly down to running his 6 year old over trips and tracks that just don't suit him. In a total of 7 starts this season, only once has he run over 7f around a bend (at track that isn't overly suitable) and that's when he's seen to his best, not least when it's at these sharp, front-runner favouring tracks. The one time he did, he was rated 84 and that's a tough mark for him to win off anyway but to make it worse, he was waited with behind the leaders - which results in instant defeat.

Today, everything is right apart from the ground, as Cara's Request would prefer plenty of ease in the ground but I'll take my chances as he's now back at a track where he can be favoured by how things will be run. Last year - during a spell in which he ran 7 times between the end of August and the beginning of November - this exceptionally quick, trailblazing front-runner won 4 handicaps (66, 72, 75 & 80) and placed twice. The only time he wasn't in the places was over the straight 7f at Leicester, although he wasn't beaten far then.

All of his wins were over 7f around a bend and he also took this race in the process when making all to win off a 3lb lower mark. He's effectively 8lbs higher now, as he had a 5lb claimer on board but still went on to win off this mark and 5lbs higher with today's jockey - Adrian Nicholls - on board. He has only been on board once this season - over the straight mile at Redcar on fast ground in June (hadn't a hope) - and it's a definite plus to see him get the leg up again, mainly because he gets on so well with the horse. Adrian's record on board reads 3 wins, a second, a third and a fourth from just 10 rides and it's clear that he gets the best out of this relatively tricky animal.

Last time out, Cara's Request was dropped back to 6f to contest the Ayr Bronze Cup. He was available at 25/1 the night before but eventually went off as an exceptionally well-backed 8/1 second favourite. I opposed him that day, mainly down to the trip and track being against him. In the end, he performed badly but couldn't even lead and that just doesn't suit this free-going animal. Today, he's back to 7f, back at a sharp track and back with his regular winning jockey on board, all of which bode well for his chances. The opposition don't look overly brilliant either.

He should be able to dominate this 10 runner field and if they give him too much rope up front (assuming he's sent on; if not, he won't win), another victory could be achieved despite the ground not being 100% ideal. Cara's Request has won on quicker surfaces before but cut does make a big difference, so any unlikely rain would be a huge plus to his chances. I find it hard to read Dandy's intentions, as he could well wait for another day with this horse, possibly when the ground comes in his favour. It's still likely that he'll be trying and he also drops back into a 0-80 Handicap for the first time since his last victory, so there's plenty going for the horse. This is definitely one to follow over the coming weeks and today I'll play small win stakes. It may not be the day that he'll win (backing him more in hope than expectation) but I'm convinced this horse will be making all of the running to win a race soon enough. He's too well handicapped not to win at least one and this is his time of year.

mark and lard

Hi pyro

Just a quickie i presume you will stop posting in early november , do you plan to be around here at the start of next years turf flat.

many thanks

x PyRo

Howdy Mark,

I'll still be posting up selections and betting during the NH season. Really intent on cracking that code too so I'll be giving it another shot and I've half figured out where I was going wrong last year. I'll eventually get it worked out! Doubt I'll be bothering with the all-weather though, it's just impossible to fathom.

God knows what'll come up by the time of the next flat season but I'll still be posting here. Might give up the weekday punts (going to start posting lays for the poorer racing) and start going in heavier at the weekends (or when the good meetings are on), because that's where I do best by a long way. No point giving myself the heartache of watching moderate horses tail off in C5 handicaps!

---

Won't have anything for tomorrow. Poor stuff again.

thesandeman

If I remember correctly you got off to a good start for the first couple of weeks of the Jumps last year didnt you?

x PyRo

I can't remember! :pac: The ol' brain must of blocked out last years NH season. It never happened!

x PyRo

Another blank on the last day of posting. Regardless, Cara's Request did shape very well and definitely looks capable of winning soon, especially when the softer ground comes out to play. He was well backed into 13/2 from 12's and showed bright pace as usual before feeling the ground in the closing stages. I thought he stuck at it quite well and was only beaten by about 5 lengths, which isn't bad considering he's so much better on slower ground. Keep an eye on him, he'll be winning before too long.

Right Step was also well backed and sent off as a 9/2 shot. However, they crawled early on and the race turned into a sprint, which was always a worry. That doesn't suit him at all and he ended up disappointing. There's a nice race in him some day and I'll be keeping him on side whenever he has his conditions.

-5.00pts on the day.

Short write-ups again.

2:20 Ascot - Azameera - 2pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

The betting suggests this is a wide open contest but with the early pace likely to be slow, plenty of the field will be unsuited by how this race pans out. Backing those towards the front end could pay dividends and Azameera looks to be the one to side with. There is a risk that her free-going ways get the better of her - as she can often take quite a keen hold - but she has won in muddling affairs before and possesses all the traits you want from a horse running in a race like this.

Clive Cox's 3 year old filly has only run on 6 occasions, winning a maiden and a pair of handicaps off marks of 78 (7f Leicester) & 86 (8f Salisbury). She pulled hard on both occasions but won in the style of a very useful horse in each, suggesting that there's a fair amount more to come from her when she matures mentally. Today, Azameera runs off a mark of 89 and that's sure to be a mark she can defy in time, whether or not today will be the day is the question. Hopefully 'yes' is the answer!

Last time out - at this course over a mile - Cox's charge ran a solid 2½ length 4th of 12 in a fairly good fillies' race (simplistic form is good). That run was on the back of a 2 month lay off and she shaped as if needing it. Along with that, she hit the front about 2f out and she seems better when running down the leaders late on, rather than being the one up top waiting for the closers to come at her. It's quite hard to know what's right or wrong in that situation but if she can be held onto for longer here, I expect that she'll be finishing off as well as anything in the field.

Clive Cox has his yard in good knick and comes here with just this runner. Adam Kirby - 3 from 5 on board her - has just one ride too before heading off to Wolverhampton for a near full book of rides and I doubt he's coming down for the good of his health. The pair are doing well of late, with 3 winners and a couple of places from their last 10 runners and Azameera looks capable of adding another win to the slate. The ground will suit, the track suits and the race will be run to suit, so a price of 7/1 looks a bit too big. I think she'll definitely run a good race (bar disaster) but some of the opposition are useful and therefore I'll just play small win stakes. Hopefully she'll go well.

x PyRo

Ugh, Azameera certainly wasn't ridden to be seen at her best - she ended up coming 3rd.

Early one for tomorrow. Back with reasoning later.

3:50 Ascot - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

x PyRo

Azameera ran another good race but could only manage 3rd place in the end. She was ridden with more restraint this time, possibly in an attempt to settle her (didn't work) and that was her undoing. Had she raced closer to the (slow) pace from the off, I'm sure she'd of given the winner a lot more to think about (ran on well closing stages; too late) but it was a good effort nonetheless and she remains of interest for the future - as her current rating is one that she's going improve past in no time.

-2.00pts on the day.

Plenty of bets to be had today so I'll be keep it fairly short and sweet.

2:05 Ascot - Caledonia Lady - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)

16 runners are set to go to post for this flying 5 furlong Group 3 contest and Caledonia Lady looks to be the best bet if she can put it all together again. Jo Hughes' speedy filly comes here on the back of an impressive Listed win at Ayr and despite winning it in a ready fashion, the effort can be marked up a fair bit considering how much ground she made up having missed the kick at the start. The course was very favourable to those on the front end that day and I feel she showed an ocean of class to win in the style that she did.

The opposition were no great shakes but Caledonia Lady won as she liked on the good-to-soft ground and today's quicker ground will suit even more. Her previous efforts also show how classy she is, as she has a couple of placed efforts to her name over this trip at Group 2 level (I'm ignoring her 6f form - 5f is her trip). She was only beaten a ¼ of a length (3rd) behind Best Terms in the Queen Mary Stakes over C&D on what was her second career outing and she was sent off at monstrous odds of 100/1 that day. She was rattling home from the rear on that occasion in yet another race where those at the front came out on top and she came out of that race with a hell of a lot of credit.

Caledonia Lady's penultimate start - her first over 5f since that 3rd over C&D - was at Doncaster in the Flying Childers Stakes and yet again, she was flying towards the end and just couldn't get up. That was another brilliant effort and a repeat of it would surely see her go very close here, unless something is capable of progressing past her - which I doubt. This stiffer track will help and having finally broken her maiden tag last time out, there's every chance that she'll prove capable of following up with another win. The race will be run to suit and there should be no excuses if she doesn't run a big race here. She's the form pick, the best horse in the race and the one to be on at 5/1 (should be no bigger than 3's). Medium win stakes for me and hopefully she'll run a big race.