PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

3:50 Ascot - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

No fewer than 18 runners line up in an attempt to win this £93,375 prize and Eton Forever looks worthy of taking a chance on now that Roger Varian has dropped his 4 year old back to 7f. That looks like a very interesting move and it could well pay dividends for this strong-travelling sort, assuming the likely solid pace comes to fruition. Usually this race is dominated by the middle drawn horses and a sit in stall 1 may not be ideal but there seems to be enough pace around the lowers numbers to suggest that it won't be a disadvantage - hopefully that's the case.

I backed Eton Forever on his last outing, in which he finished a 1½ length 2nd to Man Of Action after being backed into 9/4 favourite from 5/1 the night before. However, worries about a lack of pace in the race came to the fore and Varian's charge did exceptionally well to finish where he did considering that just doesn't suit. The race turned into a very short sprint for home and having taken it up around a furlong from home, my selection was mowed down in the closing stages by the fast-finishing Godolphin horse - one who has a superior turn of foot when races pan out like that.

That's a great effort to come here on the back of and Eton Forever should strip better for it, as that was his first outing in 3 months. He is one that goes well fresh but should have no problem with this 3 week turnaround. The ground has come up right for him, as I feel he is a proper fast ground animal and that will help him significantly in his attempt to defy a mark of 103 in such a competitive handicap. He is a full 11lbs higher than when landing the Spring Cup at Doncaster (1m) in April but the manner in which he won that suggested he's a Group horse in waiting and I think that'll eventually prove to be the case.

Eton Forever is not handicapped out of this at all (usually need a classy sort nowadays) and just needs to be able to mow down a solid pace in order to be seen at his best - and that seems likely here. The relatively stiff track will suit and the drop in trip is something that could unlock any amount of improvement, as he's not void of speed, nor a turn of foot when things are right. Varian's yard are going great guns of late, with 10 of their last 40 runners entering the winners enclosure and a further 10 running into a place. There's no better time to catch some of his animals and he will hopefully gain his second ever Ascot winner here. Neil Callan's doing well of late too but his poor course record would have to be a bit of a worry, as he's 6 from 114 at the course in the past 5 years. Regardless, if the horse is good enough and has things run to suit, he'll go well anyway. 9/1 looks a bit generous (6's would be fair) and I'll play medium win stakes again. It'll be tough for him to win but he's capable of doing so.

x PyRo

4:25 Ascot - Jimmy Styles - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Clive Cox sure has a hard time trying to place Jimmy Styles, as he's too high in the ratings to win handicaps and he's just not good enough for Group races. However, he's now dropped back to the bare 5f for the first time in Britain and it could well pay dividends for this talented animal, especially as he'll have his desired very strong pace to run at. He has the pace for the trip and his only previous run over it (in Meydan) ended in a fast-finishing 2¼ length 6th from what was an impossible draw (also first run after a break).

Jimmy Styles has form to turn around with a few of these from his last outing, which was in the Portland Handicap run over 5½f at Doncaster. However, he was flashing home late on that occasion (denied clear run) and only ended up being beaten by 1½ lengths off top-weight in the 21 runner affair. He would of finished even closer if he got a smooth passage and it's a good run to come here on the back of. The form with those rivals can be turned around here as he's running on better terms with all of them and the trip/track combination could pull out even more.

Jimmy Styles officially the second best off at the ratings here (albeit not by much as he carries a 3lb penalty) and the fairly stiff 5f at a track where he has went well before should help to see him at his best. It's interesting that Kieren Fallon is booked for the ride (Kirby must be banned) and he seems like the ideal partner for a horse who needs to get into a nice rhythm in order to get involved. Fallon has previous experience of this animal, having been on board out in Meydan but things didn't pan out to suit on that occasions, so hopefully it's second time lucky. Plenty of useful types line up in opposition but Clive Cox's charge could bring home the money if he's on song over this new trip. 8/1 looks like a decent price about him and I'll have a small win bet. Addictive Dream (10/1) lines out again and I'm having a small saver on him just in case, as it'd be typical that he'd win when I wouldn't be on.

thesandeman

Was goin 'bollix' till I read to the end there. At least ur giving my one a chance B-)

x PyRo

GL Sandy. :-)

3:00 Newmarket - Hazaz - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (StanJames)

Taking a bit of a wild punt here, as the market and jockey bookings suggest that Hazaz is the second choice of Clive Brittain's pair of runners here. However, he looks to be wildly overpriced because of that and could still run a good race in an attempt to land the £270,000 prize in this 7f Sales race. Some Group horses line up in opposition so he will have to step up markedly on previous efforts just to make the frame but it's not beyond him and I get the impression that this animal has a hell of a lot left in the locker, now he just needs to show it on the course.

Last time out - over C&D - Hazaz was in the process of running a cracking race in a slightly less competitive sales race before a combination of inexperience and the lack of a recent run took its toll on him. He was actually travelling as well as anything with just over a couple of furlongs to go and it wasn't until he ran into the dip that he began to come under pressure from Tom Queally (on board 9/1 stablemate today). Brittain's charge traded at 3.30 in the run and really looked like he'd get involved in the finish before he dropped out of contention - eventually trailing home 8½ lengths off the pace in 10th (of 16).

Today, Hazaz is priced up based on that run but it was his first for over 10 weeks and he may well have needed it. Assuming it brings him on, he should be able to finish off his race a lot better today if he can travel with the same fluency as before. He should also handle the dip a lot better today having previously experienced it on the Rowley Mile and that's another positive. The ground has come up right for him, as he seems like a quick ground animal and this son of the excellent Dubawi has a lot more to come. He's likely to be the type to improve with his racing and this will be his fourth outing (shaped well first time out, ran very good 2nd second time out; both in June).

Clive Brittain has his 2 year old's in much better form of late, with 8 winners from 41 runners in the past couple of months, so it's time to keep an eye on his runners after what was a very poor season. Tom McLaughlin is the man on board today and he has only ever ridden on one occasion for Brittain and owner Saeed Manana - that ended in victory (10/1 shot) in one of these sales races at this track. I don't really know a whole pile about him but he's decent from what I remember from my time punting on the all-weather tracks and hopefully he'll give a good ride to the potentially useful Hazaz.

50/1 is just much too big for a horse who does have ability and if he can put it all in, I'm hopeful that he can run a big race in this company. Whether or not he needs an easier track (and possibly further) is up for debate but I'll take my chances with a small each-way bet. There's some nice, lowly Group horses lining up but nothing spectacular and this fellow could give them a run for their money. It's obviously a risky bet but it's worth taking a chance on. His stablemate (a 165,000gns purchase as a foal) - Miblish - holds fancy entries and is sure to have more to come, but the price just doesn't appeal to me. He could be up to winning this, but so could Hazaz if it all comes together, and hopefully it will.

x PyRo

Nay more. Sleepy-sleepy time soon! One winner and I'll be happy. No winners and I'll be getting the shotgun out.

G'luck lads and lassies.

thesandeman

Eton NR :-(

d-gal

x PyRo wrote: »

Addictive Dream (10/1) lines out again and I'm having a small saver on him just in case, as it'd be typical that he'd win when I wouldn't be on.

Even he couldn't save you, awful unlucky

thesandeman

Hate that!

x PyRo

He has to be one of the most unlucky horses about. Crap day anyway, that just made it worse.

There's a lash of decently priced winners just over the brow of the hill and you'll pick them

x PyRo

Cheers RJ, it's doubtful though! Bloody hate this time of year. Summer flat racing > all. For making money at least! :-(

---

No luck. Caledonia Lady wasn't best placed in her race and ran on into 3rd when it was all too late. I don't think she'd of beaten the winner regardless of what happened but she would of been closer at least. It was a solid run, albeit one you'd expect from a filly who was best in at the weights.

Jimmy Styles was never really going at all and although I thought he had the speed for 5f, that's obviously not the case. He ran on a bit at the end but never came close to even looking likely to get involved. Disappointing result but in hindsight it wasn't my smartest selection this year. I had a small saver on a horse I've backed numerous times, Addictive Dream, and he finished 2nd, just beaten by a short-head. He's such an unlucky horse and hopefully he'll get compensation sometime. It was a cracking effort for him over a trip shy of his optimum.

Hazaz ran a decent race to finish in mid-division in the big sales race but again he didn't look happy on the track when push came to shove. There's more to come from him when he tackles a less demanding course and a drop into weaker contests wouldn't go astray either. He's got plenty of talent, just not enough to cut it with some of the better juveniles. Solid effort all things considered.

Eton Forever was a non-runner.

-7.00pts on the day. Poor start to the month, hopefully it'll change around.

Just one bet today.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

3:15 Longchamp - Workforce - 3pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

16 runners are set to line up for this brilliant Group 1 contest and the lack of any truly outstanding 3-year-old's lead me to believe that recent trends of Classic generation dominance could be bucked here. No fewer than 16 3-year-old's have landed this race since 1990 and they've won 7 of the last 10 running's, with a further 9 places from a total of 66 runners in that time. 4-year-old's have only managed 2 winners and 6 places from 55 runners in the same time-frame, mainly down to the difficulty of giving away weight to the younger horses. That could all change here though, as I'm just not taken by the Classic generation representatives today and I'm hopeful that one of the older animals is going to score, preferably my selection!

The one that I'm interested in is obviously my old favourite - and last years winner - Workforce. Sir Michael Stoute's 4 year old would have to break the trend that has seen no horse land this race in successive years since Alleged won it (at 3 & 4) back in 1978 & 1979, although I'm not sure how many have reappeared the next year and I can't imagine it being very many. Only 2 of the previous years winners - in the past 10 years - have run in the race the following year, with both finishing in 3rd position. I still wouldn't pay too much heed to any statistic but they're interesting at the same time.

Workforce comes here on the back of having run in the King George at Ascot on July 23rd, the same race in which he flopped in before lining out to win this race on his next course outing last year. Things went a lot better for Stoute's charge this year but he could only manage to come 2¾ lengths behind the brilliant John Gosden trained Nathaniel - a well-built 3 year old to whom he was conceding 12lbs due to the weight-for-age allowance at that time of year. The bare result doesn't tell the whole story as Stoute's exceptionally impressive 2010 Derby winner threw away his chance by hanging across the course under pressure. It seems as if he was feeling something but I don't think the race was ideal for him anyway, as it was quite farcical in how it was run.

That was Workforce's second run in a few weeks and I'd imagine he's on that's best caught relatively fresh, as he showed when becoming the first horse in God knows who long to win this race without having a run within the last 50 days. He comes here on the back of the exact same time off the course and hopefully that'll lead to him showing his best form again. Form with So You Think will have to be turned around, as my selection for today's race faced off with the New Zealand bred Ballydoyle superstar in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (on penultimate start). However, that was over 10f and Workforce still managed to come a half-length behind over a trip that is a quarter-of-a-mile below his optimum. I expect that he's got the beating of that horse over this trip and their respective prices in the market is all wrong (5/1 vs 10/1).

Another positive for Workforce is that he gets to race in a big-field for the first time this year. He's 3 from 3 in races where there's big fields (12, 12 & 19), as this gives him the chance to be buried in towards the rear of the pack with plenty of cover, something he hasn't had a chance of doing this year. With the pace being likely to be strong and 15 other rivals to get in amongst, I imagine that he'll have everything run to suit today at a track that we know he handles. Doubts over the ground have arisen, as he certainly doesn't want it too fast (despite winning the Derby on good-to-firm in record time) but today's conditions shouldn't hinder his chances as it seems likely that it'll be nice racing ground - not too quick, not too slow (although it'll be listed as good-to-soft it seems). A bit of rain wouldn't go astray though. With regards to the draw, Workforce will be coming out of stall 8, the same one he raced out of on route to winning this last year. It seems as if you want to be drawn in the lower half to have any chance and he has fared well in that regard.

Obviously, in a race of this nature, the opposition have to be feared. Sarafina and So You Think are currently battling it out for favouritism at around the 5/1 mark. The former was obviously an unlucky loser when being mauled by a weakening horse in this last year but I can't for one second believe that she is fairly priced at 5/1 when you consider how tough it'll be for her to win from a sit in stall 13. Similar comments can apply to the latter, as he's one stall up for her in 14. I also don't think that he would win anyway unless they went very slow, which seems unlikely. 1m 4f in a truly run race may just catch So You Think out and despite his obvious talent, he's up against it here. That's not saying he can't win, I just don't think he will.

Snow Fairy isn't without a chance but is she good enough? I wouldn't think so. She could run into a place but at 14/1, I wouldn't be overly keen to back her. Freddie Head's Galikova is the most prominent in the market of the 3-year-old's but I'd much prefer to back a horse with some big-field experience and she's never raced in anything with more than 9 runners in her 7 race career. She's obviously talented and could love this different test, but 8/1 isn't a price that's tempting enough. Similar comments apply to 14/1 shot Meandre, as all bar his first career start have come in small fields. I'd also question how good he is, as his Group 1 win came about by beating Seville into second, something that most horses seem capable of! He has been supplemented by his brilliant trainer and should run a good race, but he's too risky for me.

Workforce is the one I'll take a chance on, as I feel he's overpriced at 10/1 and should have everything in place to run his race. The Stoute yard haven't had a good season at all but this would be a lovely way for them to turn around all of the misfortune that they've had. Ryan Moore also comes back to the saddle after injury and there'd be no better way for him to come back than by being victorious in this race for the second time in as many years. Hopefully it'll all come to fruition and I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that this brilliant colt can show his best form to buck all of the trends that are against him. He owes me nothing having backed him in this at 6/1 last year but I'm quietly confident that a repeat performance could be in the offing before he heads off for a well-deserved career at stud.

x PyRo

All wrong about Workforce, although he hardly got the rub of the green. Relatively correct about the rest I mentioned. Didn't even consider the first two. Brilliant.

-3.00pts on the day.

Very, very short write-ups today. Have to be up for a remembrance mass in the morning - woohoo.

3:10 Newmarket - Red Duke - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365)

John Quinn looks to have a future Group 1 winner on his hands in the form of Red Duke and his talented juvenile can give Tom Eaves his second win at the top level in the space of a week. Things will have to be run very much to suit, as this fellow definitely wants a strong gallop to run after but that does look likely to occur here. He was beaten last twice in races that hadn't went his way but previous to that he was a nice winner over this trip on the July course.

It seems as if a stiff test is needed for an animal who looks sure to excel over further than this trip and the return to Newmarket is no bad thing at all. I have my doubts about many of the market leaders and John Quinn's charge looks a bit overpriced at 14/1. Small win bet for me and hopefully he'll have things to his liking.

3:50 Newmarket - Sentry Duty - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

Nicky Henderson has managed 2 winners and a second from just 6 runners in this race (in past decade) and he looks likely to have another good chance with the 9 year old Sentry Duty. A low draw is always a plus in this race, despite the marathon 2m 2f trip, and Henderson's charge has a lovely sit in stall 1 - assuming he can get a nice position from it. Whilst his exploits on the flat haven't been great this year, he was a creditable 6th of 32 in this race last year (off 5lb higher) when things didn't work out (mainly down to a poor ride).

He returns to Newmarket as a potentially well-treated horse and could add to his 7 previous flat wins, of which only one was in this country - at this track over half-a-mile shorter. Johnny Murtagh being on board is another positive and the horse should have no issue with the ground. 14/1 is hardly an outstanding price in this race but he's worth a small each-way bet and should be there or thereabouts if all goes well.

2:20 York - Solemn - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (PaddyPower, 4 places)

Tough race to get to grips with but Solemn could be a lively contender now that he's dropping back to C4 company off what is his last winning mark. Milton Bradley's trailblazing 6 year old comes here as a seemingly out-of-form animal but he was forced to race in tough contests after hitting some very good form between May & June, resulting in a 10lb hike in the weights after a couple of wins (Newmarket (80) & Nottingham (84) on fast ground).

I'm not convinced the stiffer tracks suit him all that much and a more speed testing race at York could be what he's after, although I've no previous course efforts to go on as this is his first run here on what will be his 40th race on turf. His trainer is making a 400+ mile round trip to run him though (only runner) and rarely ever visits this track nowadays (first runner since October '09, which was his first since '07; won this in '05). It'll be a tough race to win but the horse is useful when he's on a going day and could get involved here in a race that's likely to be run at a very strong gallop. There is a chance that he could completely bomb out but 20's are too big and I'll play small each-way stakes again.

4:05 York - Addictive Dream - 3pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

There'll come a time when Addictive Dream gets the luck required to land a nice race and given that he's in such good form of late, it could well happen today. Walter Swinburn's charge will have to overcome having run 3 times in the last month - including a race just last week - in order to win this but he seems to have little problem with taking his racing and still remains a lightly-raced 4 year old on turf. A career-high mark will have to be defied too, as he's now 2lbs higher than when just nudged into 2nd in a Listed race at Ascot last week. However, that was over 5f and he's a much better 6f animal, especially when they'll go a good clip upfront - as seems likely here.

Sean Levey takes the ride today and his 3lb claim is sure to come in handy in a race where every inch is likely to count. This horse is quite a tricky one to ride but he's a very useful jockey and seems to be riding well of late. Levey also has a cracking record at this course, having won on 3 of his 8 rides here since beginning to ride in the UK. More importantly, Walter Swinburn has his animals in great form of late, after what was a tough season for him and it'd be good if he could land another big handicap before he takes a break from training after the end of this season. He certainly has the horse to do it and if all goes well, the progressive and consistent Addictive Dream will run another big race. He seems to have most things to suit and this track plays to his strengths, so a good run should be the least to expect. Medium win stakes for me at 10/1 and if his recent exertions haven't taken their toll, that price may look quite big after the race. It could also look tiny! We'll see.

x PyRo

For anyone who was following up to now, I'd suggest you quit for a while. Can't click at this time of year, but I'll keep on having bets until the end of the season. Then I'll be lowering the stakes and embarking on my NH quest!

---

The old October slump has returned good and proper. No returns again on Saturday, although a couple of them did perform decently despite their finishing positions suggesting otherwise. John Quinn's juvenile is way better than how he ran and just needs everything to fall into place, which will happen some day. He should make a nice Group class miler (at least; could get further) next year and I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for him.

Can't be bothered reviewing how I think they ran - too sleepy and depressed due to a lack of winners!

-8.00pts on the day. Wonderful as ever.

2:35 Goodwood - Gouray Girl - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places)

20 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win this C3 Handicap and assuming there isn't a track bias towards those racing on the pace, the hold-up horses should be favoured by how this will pan out - mainly down to the inclusion of so much pace in this 6f contest. Plenty of the field should be suited by this but Walter Swinburn's 4 year old filly, Gouray Girl, should be in her element and this is the time of year in which she usually comes good, so hopefully that's the case here again.

Things haven't went smoothly for Gouray Girl since she was an impressive winner at Newbury (GS, 7f) nearly 12 months ago but she has returned to an exceptionally good handicap mark of 86 after failing to land a race this year (set some very unsuitable tasks). That's a rating now 3lbs lower than her only handicap win to date and the performance she produced on that occasion suggested she'd have little problems dealing with a mark in the mid-nineties when getting ideal conditions.

This is a completely different test though, as she's very unlikely to get cut in the ground (unless the heavens open) and she's running at a much more speed demanding track. However, Gouray Girl isn't on that's lacking for speed at all and having turned in what I consider to be a solid run over this trip at Newmarket last time out, she shapes as if she's coming to hand again. She was a 4½ length 5th of 9 on that occasion but the track was severely favouring those on the pace and she did very well in the circumstances having been held-up right at the back.

I'm not convinced that she's in love with that track either and the return to Goodwood - a place where she has finished a very close-up 2nd on both of her starts here (inc. on fast ground) - could well prove to be a smart move by connections. There should be nice, good racing ground today and that'll suit - plus she doesn't seem overly ground dependent anyway. Rain would be welcomed but the most important thing to her is a solid gallop to chase after, which looks virtually assured.

Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle for the first time and he's an interesting booking, and certainly a capable man to have in control. If he can get her into a nice rhythm mid-race, she should be in with some sort of chance come the end of the race and may be up to giving the in-from Swinburn stable another winner. The lightly-raced Gouray Girl is definitely well-treated at the moment and this may be the time to catch her, so I'll play medium each-way stakes at a tasty 14/1 price-tag. I'd rate her as being worthy of a much shorter price, mainly down the performance level that she's capable of when things go well for her - plus she shaped quite well last time out in a C2 contest off a 2lb higher mark. Hopefully career win number three is on the way.

bradlente

Keep at it Pyro,All that research is worth something.I'll keep following ye anyway,My "pick a funny name and hope" method still has some kinks that need ironing out:D

restingpilgrim

Just one of those things that happen. I think Hugh Taylor made a loss last month and he had 14 seconds, happens to all tipsters at some stage. You have the results that prove you can do it over the long term. This time of year horses go off form as winter approaches and the ground becomes less consistent.Maybe you should consider reducing you stakes for present to protect your bankroll/ profits.

We all know you can do it. Roll on next summer !

3ndahalfof6

Now MR PyRo we all know there will be dry times, you had 50+ with out a winner (i think) but the funds were not effected to much as you had copious amounts of places,

now i want you to lift that chin and understand that everyone of your followers do it because you are more than less, its a learning process and sometimes we need to pay for the learning,

I will tell you this much I would far rather open up Boards.ie and read your posts than not to see them at all, keep safe.

Restingpilgrim hit the nail on the head. YEsterday the ground was varying across the track in some races after cutting up in earlier ones, anything softer than good to firm can be anything really. Tis why I love the AW

AstonMartin

I have never come across a long term profitable horse punter who didn't have connections to a few yards. Do you have a P&L handy or a ROI figure?

I would have to agree about holding fire at this time of year.

argosy2006

5th, just out of a place

micksingh

pyro,

What are your views on the in coming whip rules in the UK? Will you change the way you bet?

AstonMartin

It would be good to follow a laying thread of yours.

x PyRo

Cheers for the support lads, certainly helps when it comes to getting motivated for what I consider to be a very tough time of year. Going to keep with the same stakes for the next few weeks and then pull it right down for the NH betting - might even start a new thread for that, even though I like this one! I've a few different value seeking approaches to test out for it, so I'm hopeful of doing a lot better this time around. Although I'd be quite happy not to lose much! I'd seriously advise that nobody follows with cash for a while.

Got too cocky last year after a good run on the flat and really overdid it when the jumps came around. I found that I was trying to seek value in larger priced runners and then when the losing streaks came around I was going at it all wrong. Got to learn from my mistakes to improve though, so hopefully everything can pan out a bit different this time around. Just going to keep doing what I do best, and that's finding excuses for why horses haven't been running well and are therefore overpriced when getting ideal conditions (even though there's plenty more to it). It should be fun to see how it goes anyway!

@Aston - being a man who's all about value punting yourself, I think you can guess how I'd react to the "inside information" thing. There's a hell of a lot more to the game than hearing when the horses are supposed to be running to win (it's only a tiny amount of people who get proper information; and even then it's not a foolproof strategy, not even close).

I've never once posted (here) a horse I've had some info for and to be honest, most of them I do get lose - although I never back them nowadays (only leads to long-term losses as most are under-priced; plus I obviously don't have great contacts!).

It's so overrated and simply learning how to evaluate form and seek value in certain races is the best way to make money at this game IMO. That's certainly the case for me anyway. Plus I've about 5 or 6 acquaintances that punt by reading just form and they're all in very large profit without any inside information at all. It's more than possible to make money at this game but people just don't want to listen to that because most can't grasp it.

With regards to my own results - In 2010, including the first few months of the NH season (which was a massive struggle) either side of a good flat season, I made a profit of +229.53pts. Since I've started punting last January (when I knew very little; even though I thought otherwise!) I'm +340pts and for this flat season, I'm +226.78pts with a ROI of +35.5% - all correct as of my last update a couple of weeks ago, those figures will be down a few points since then but I'll have the next one up soon. They're also to the best bookie prices available at the time, so it'd be a fair bit bigger to BF prices if I had of used them. This way is handier though.

I'm 99% sure that I'll be starting a proper lay thread once the NH season is around. I'll be backing a lot less animals than I was last year so at least it'll occupy my time! It's so much easier too (obviously I suppose) and as I've been learning more and more as time has gone by, I'm pretty sure I can show a nice profit from picking losers - fairly short priced ones at that too. We'll see how she goes. :-)

@Mick - I'd imagine that I'll be forced to change the type of horse that I back, mainly as the strong-travelling types are sure to favoured by the new rules. The jockeys who are tanking along coming into the closing stages will have a lot more strikes left compared to the ones who have to grind out their races under a lot of pressure (usually) and it'll be awfully tough for them.

Hard to know really but that seems the logical conclusion. Don't think a jockey rowing along will have the same effect as when they could give them plenty more strikes to keep them up to their work.

I don't agree with it at all.

x PyRo

Gouray Girl ran a very good race but like all good each-way bets, she finished one place away from returning some money and had to settle for 5th position. She actually hit around 1.60 to win late on and looked a sure thing to finish in the places but she faded in the closing half-furlong. Can't complain about her effort at all and it'll be interesting to see where she'll go in the coming weeks, as she's very well-handicapped and won't have a problem with likely cut in the ground. Keep an eye out for her, she's a winner waiting to happen.

-4.00pts on the day.

3:15 Yarmouth - Drift And Dream - 2pts @ 17/2 (VC)

A strong 6f contest in the offing here with 14 runner set to go to post but it usually pays to race out of the higher numbered stalls here over this trip and therefore I'm taking a chance on Drift And Dream to bounce back to winning ways from stall 8. Things haven't went to plan for Chris Wall's 4 year old filly, as he reported that she had a few niggles throughout the past year and that explains why she wasn't seen back on the track until late August.

Drift And Dream has run on three occasions since coming back this year, with improvement coming with each run. She comes here as one of the fresher animals in the race and connections now make an interesting move by returning her to 6f. In a 12 race career so far, Chris Wall's filly has only run over this distance once (also ran over 5½f once), and that was her second career outing in which she was too free to get involved. There's every chance that she'll be seeing out the trip on this easy track without any trouble, after all her best outings have come over the stiff 5f at Sandown - where she has won twice from 6 races.

With the new whip rules being enforced around the country today, backing those who travel strongly may pay dividends and that's a comment that can certainly be applied to Drift And Dream, as she's a lovely mover when getting her favoured fast ground. Today's conditions should be just about fast enough for her and with a decent pace likely, she looks to be the one to side with. She's well-handicapped (runs off last winning mark), goes at the course (won on debut here over 5f) and has the capable Neil Callan on board for the first time, which looks like an interesting booking.

Chris Wall's horses are going a lot better of late too, as his string just weren't performing in the early part of the season. This looks to be the time to catch his runners and the same comment could apply to Drift And Dream, as she's one of the better treated animals in this race. Wall also has a cracking record at the course, with 19% of his runners winning here in the past 5 years and he's had 5 winners from just 30 runners at the course in 2011 - which is especially impressive given how poorly his early-season runners were going. This isn't a race to be overly confident about anything but 17/2 about this animal represents value and if she's back to her best (shaped very well last twice), she really should get involved. Small win stakes for me and hopefully she could oblige. Alan McCabe's lightly-raced 3 year old, Levitate (12/1), may be worth having a little bet on too.

x PyRo

3:45 Yarmouth - Loki's Revenge - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

Things haven't exactly went to plan for Loki's Revenge this season, as he's still without victory in 6 attempts as a 3 year old. He won on 4 of his 14 outings as a juvenile and although it seems as if his performances haven't been great since, the majority of them are a lot better than the bare figures suggest. As a result of that, he's now looking like a well-handicapped horse off a mark of 79 and William Jarvis now sees fit to apply first-time blinkers, which could well work the oracle for a horse who has looked awkward on occasion.

Loki's Revenge was last seen running a solid 10th of 25 in the Ayr Bronze Cup, a race in which he stuck to the task well despite it favouring those on the pace. He was held-up towards the rear on the far side and just couldn't make any inroads into the leaders in his group of 11 - but still managed to finish 4th of his group, 2½ lengths clear of the 5th. It's hardly a brilliant run but it's a lot better than the bare finishing position suggests and I feel he's close to coming back into the winners enclosure.

The main run I'm interested in is when Loki's Revenge ran over 6f at Goodwood when the ground was very soft. Connections got stuck into their charge, as he was well-backed from 16's the night before into an SP of 15/2. Stall 15 didn't look like a bad place to be positioned but as the race panned out and how the track was riding, he faced an uphill battle before he even embarked on the downhill course. At one stage he actually looked like coming with a winning run (hit 2.10 in-running) but he was repelled by the eventual winner (who I backed at 20's!) and then faded out of contention. He looked exceptionally awkward on the track though and to see him fade wasn't a surprise, but the effort can be marked up a fair bit.

Loki's Revenge now tackles quicker ground on a completely different track, but that shouldn't pose any threat to him at all. The one worry would be how he'll cope with being positioned in stall 4, as that's not ideal in a bigger sized field around here but I'll take a chances at his current price of 16/1. Joe Fanning being on board for the first time is a big plus, as I don't think you can find too many better jockeys out there. He has an amazing record when riding for William Jarvis, with 13 winners and 12 places from just 57 runners - that's a 23% strike-rate and the pair show a massive ROI of 195% (had a 66/1 winner mind).

They haven't teamed on the flat at all this season and it really looked like an interesting jockey booking. The horses owner, Dr Walker, has had Fanning on board his animals on 20 occasions, of which 7 ended up being winners. It looks as if they mean business today and added to all the simple statistics, the Jarvis yard are in stunning form of late, with 4 of their last 10 runners winning. Since August, they've had 10 runners at Yarmouth and 4 winners and 3 seconds have come about from them too. Loki's Revenge could well add to that here at a fancy price of 16/1 if all goes well and I'll play medium each-way stakes on him doing the business. He's definitely capable of getting involved and his current price is massive in relation to his actual chance. If he can put it all in and get a bit of luck, he's bound to go well. Whether that happens or not is another thing but I'm quietly confident that it will (famous last words).

No more.

AstonMartin

I dont bet the ponies but I will look forward to your laying thread.

x PyRo

GAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE LANDED!

x PyRo

Joe Fanning, you absolute babe.

markc91

YESSSSSSS!!!!!

Thanks Pyro

thesandeman

Luvly jubly! Some gamble on it. I was lucky to catch 11s this morning.

3ndahalfof6

n1 lads got in the door at 3:43 tried to phone in the bet but to late, never mind nice to see you hitting once again sir.