PyRo's Horse Bets.

baazzaa

New to the board site, fair play, nice call on that one, backed of the board,wish I was on with yous.Ill be keeping an eye on this thread.

micksingh

x PyRo wrote: »

GAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE LANDED!

Well done.Even through that difficult run, you stuck to your guns. Don't ever get too down on yourself. In Pyro we trust.

Derek!

Just got home now and my account balance is lookin very healthy thanks to another brilliant winner from you, I'm delighted for ya thanks

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments everyone, really appreciate it and I'm still over the moon!

I owed people that one for sure. Now it's time to try find another couple of them before it's all over. :-)

Hard work and patience does pay off - it's just tough to be motivated when things go completely wrong after spending 2-3 hours analysing a race (happens a lot!). I wouldn't mind about the long losing runs at all if people weren't following the bets but that's something I need to put out of my head.

The previous 17 selections had lost, although 5 had placed and a couple were quite unlucky (in my biased opinion!). Back up to +235pts for the season and in the next few weeks I want to reach 275pts profit (for the season; if I could somehow get to +300 I'd be unbelievably happy). It'll be tough, probably impossible (given the time of year), but sure we'll give it a good shot. :-)

Then we move on to destroying the National Hunt layers...

Brilliant stuff, that takes the worry out of it for you (worry as in you are concerned about folks following your selections and losing their arse) now and you can pick away now 'till season end at your leisure.

Grand winner, you'd a nice bit on too considering the 16/1 price.

Very well done.

x PyRo

Cheers RJ, pretty much spot on. Now I just have to find another few of them.

---

Finally managed to get a nice winner on the board as Loki's Revenge added to William Jarvis' fine recent form by getting up in the shadow of the post to score at Yarmouth. The speedy 3 year old was exceptionally well-backed throughout the day and eventually went off as a 9/2 shot. It took him quite a while to find top gear and he was still 7th (and looking one-paced) moving into the final furlong. However, he was given plenty of time by Joe Fanning and found his rhythm in the closing stages to fly home for a well-deserved victory. He landed a 2pt e/w bet at 16/1 in the process and ended a losing streak of 17 for me. Not so bad!

Earlier on, Drift And Dream was also well-backed to be sent off as the 11/2 favourite but she pulled quite hard in the early stages and couldn't find any extra inside the final furlong. She kept on well enough for 3rd place and if she manages to get her favoured fast ground in the coming weeks (doubtful that she will), she'll be of interest again off her current rating of 76 (if running over 6f; will need to settle better). Solid run, can't complain.

+38.00pts on an extremely good day and one that was long overdue.

Just the one today.

4:00 Newcastle - Youhavecontrol - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, 4 places)

Very tough 6f H'cap in the offing here, with 16 runners set to go to post and the majority seemingly in decent form. Over this trip at Newcastle, you generally want to side with those drawn high (especially on softer going) and Youhavecontrol looks to have a live chance of getting involved from stall 13. A strong pace to run after will be needed, as he's not an obvious one to be contesting races in the sprinting division but he doesn't seem to be lacking in speed and should be seeing out his race well at a track that takes a lot of getting.

Michael Dods trains the 3-year-old Youhavecontrol and as was the case last season, his animals seem to be coming to hand at the end of the campaign. 5 of his last 20 runners have scored, including winners at 6/1, 7/1, 15/2 & 11/1. This definitely looks to be the time to watch his runners closely and today he sees fit to book Paul Hanagan for the first time on board this fellow. The trainer/jockey combination doesn't occur too often nowadays but they boast fine results when teaming up and Hanagan is the top jockey at this track in recent times. 2 of his last 5 rides for Dods have ended in victory (both this time last year) and it looks like a relatively interesting booking - even though it may mean nothing.

Even more interesting is the fact that Youhavecontrol is now dropped back to sprint trips for the first time since winning his maiden on seasonal debut this year (had one run over C&D as a juvenile; needed it). On that occasion - at Thirsk on decent ground - Dods' charge was doing all of his best work late on despite taking a keen hold from the off. I wouldn't be convinced that 6f at Thirsk would be the ideal test for him and with a much larger emphasis on stamina here (albeit over the same trip), he can prove to be even better than what still rates as his career-best effort to date.

The soft ground that Youhavecontrol will encounter today - for the first time in a handicap (got good-to-soft before but didn't see out a mile at this track, which is understandable) - is something that he should relish and assuming they go quick enough for him, he's one of the more likely types to be seen finishing out his race well (or else he'll be badly one-paced under pressure!). It's obvious that things haven't went to plan since that useful maiden win (beat a sprinter now rated 90) but he has had excuses on a number of occasions and ran some decent races in defeat despite racing conditions not being overly suitable.

Youhavecontrol is still very lightly-raced having only lined out on 7 occasions and despite some form-readers seeming to think that he's caught by the handicapper off his current rating (74), I think he has the potential to have a nice bit in hand off it when his ideal conditions arise. He may just have everything spot on today and at a price of 10/1, I'll take a chance. He's not a winner-in-waiting or anything like that but he's talented and should be up to winning a similar contest. This is a tough one to solve though, so it's just minimal each-way stakes for me. Hopefully he'll go well and I see no reason why he shouldn't. Tim Easterby's 3 year old, Captain Kolo (11/1), would be the only other I'd consider backing but he just doesn't find winning easy, especially when my money is resting on his shoulders (bound to win now).

x PyRo

Turned out that he was drawn out of it, typical. Usually it's the other way around.

Won the race on his side by a long way, pity the other ones were massively favoured (because of the pace, etc). Quite sure that he would of won that (or went very close) if racing in the larger pack. Keep an eye on him, now he's a winner-in-waiting!

Roll on the next few days. :-)

x PyRo

Youhavecontrol was unfortunate to race in the smaller group at Newcastle on Tuesday and as a result, he had no chance of actually winning the race. He beat his side home with ease and had he raced on the favoured side, place money would of been the least I'd of expected. It'll be interesting to see where he heads now as I'm convinced he'll be entering the winners enclosure if conditions are suitable in the coming few weeks. Solid run in the circumstances and I can't complain.

-2.00pts on the day.

2:25 Ascot - Night Carnation - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (Boylesports)

I rarely ever back horses unless I think that they will have ideal conditions for their race but I'm going to break that rule here in the hope that I'm quite wrong about Night Carnation's ability - or lack of - to handle fast ground. Anyone who has read what I've posted throughout the year will know that I've previously earmarked Andrew Balding's 3 year old filly as a potential Group 1 performer when her ideal race conditions would arise and I'm still of that opinion, assuming she stays in training as a 4 year old as this will be her last outing for the season and it's a Group 2 race.

It was a 5f Group 3 win at Sandown that initially led me to believe that Night Carnation was of the highest quality, as she blitzed the field to score by nearly 2 lengths. In hindsight, she was favoured by numerous things - not least the draw bias that exists over that C&D and that was the main reason why some of her opposition could never get competitive. Regardless of that, the way she travelled mid-race before quickening up the Sandown hill was impressive and achieved with consummate ease.

All of this is made even more impressive as she was facing properly quick ground for the first time, something that her trainer previously worried about. That run would give cause for hoping that conditions won't hinder her today, even though plenty of other things went well for her and the opposition who were given a fair chance to compete just weren't that good in the grand scheme of things. It's still a run worthy of a lot of respect and if she can improve on it, which seems likely, a big run could be in order here.

Night Carnation was then put away after that race (July 2nd) until this day 4 weeks ago (September 17th) when she reappeared to tackle another Group 3 contest, this time over Newbury's 5 furlongs on what was decent, good ground. She moved into contention nicely enough but having raced with the choke out early on in the race, she couldn't find a whole pile in the closing stages. In the end, Balding's charge was beaten by little more than 3 lengths, finishing 5th, behind the likely favourite for today's race - James Fanshawe's vastly improved 4 year old gelding, Deacon Blues (3/1 here).

I genuinely think that form can be turned around as Newbury just isn't the ideal place for Night Carnation, even though I stupidly backed her on that occasion thinking she'd get away with the easy track. A stiff 5f is ideal for her but connections are now upping her back to 6f and that's something that I always thought could suit now that she's a much improved animal compared to her couple of juvenile outings over this trip. She just didn't go at Newbury and looked quite awkward in the way she held her head. It's possible that she needed the outing after such a long break and she should be spot on here for what I now consider to be a much more suitable race for her. The ground has to be a big worry but she is a 22/1 shot and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that she can run her race. Apart from the ground, there's no obvious reason why she can't give her best and the price just seems much too big to me.

UrbanSea

hi pyro long time lurker first time poster i really like your tips keep it up how mch do you use for a point thanks

x PyRo

Can't make head nor tail of the other Group races, so I'll take a watching brief and enjoy it. Reckon Excelebration will put it up to Frankel but I've been burnt enough times backing against him. Midday in the Champion Stakes was interesting me too but so do a couple of others. Might be best to leave them races well alone.

On to the handicap..

4:45 Ascot - Valencha - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 5 places)

It's hard enough to solve a 29 runner handicap, it's even harder when the jockeys on board are inexperienced apprentice riders. However, Valencha, a progressive 4 year old filly, has the excellent Harry Bentley on board and the pairing look in with a decent shout of running a big race here. Hughie Morrison has really worked wonders with this animal, as she's most consistent having never finished out of the first four in 16 career outings - 3 of which were wins and another 9 being placed efforts. Horses holding their form are always worth a second look at this time of year and this filly shows no signs of losing hers just yet.

Valencha comes here to race off a career-high mark of 87 having been raised 5lbs for a half-length victory in a 15 runner handicap last time out. That was over this 7f trip at Epsom and she was given a fine ride by the recently retired (not for long I hope) Richard Hughes, as he produced her nicely through tight gaps in order to give Morrison's charge her first win in 5 races (that win also under Hughes). That was only a C4 event and obviously this is a lot tougher, the toughest task of her career, but she remains progressive and could have another few lbs in hand.

The majority of the race-pace seems to be drawn relatively high and Valencha has a sit in stall 19, which should prove to be a good draw. Another thing I'd usually look for with horses running here is previous course form and this filly has lined up twice at this track. On both occasions, she finished in 2nd place having looked the most likely winner and it's possible that she hit the front too early each time. Although she did run in to a very progressive type in William Haggas' Electra Star on the second occasion and that was over a mile - 7f is her optimum.

Hughie Morrison has his yard in great form of late, with 4 winners and a number of close efforts from his 22 runners this month. Backing stables in good knick is another thing that comes in handy at this time of year and he has his going well. He also has a fine record at the track and 5 winners, 4 seconds and 1 third have resulted from just 17 runners at the track this year. Valencha looks capable of adding to that under the guidance of Harry Bentley and he also does well here, having achieved 3 winners and 3 places from 15 rides here.

It'll be a very tough contest to win but there are 5 places being paid with a good few firms and 14/1 looks big (can get 16's with 4 places). I'll play medium each-way stakes and hopefully this progressive filly will continue to run her usual solid race and run into a place at least. Of the rest, I'd be delighted to see a big run from my old friend Striking Spirit (22/1) and he's worthy of having a few quid on each-way too. The likely favourite, Pearl Ice, could be anything but may not be favourably positioned and the 15/2 about him does not appeal, even though Sir Mark said he'd make a very nice 3 year old after he sluiced up when last seen, just over a year ago. He could be anything but the price isn't big enough. Woodcote Place isn't without a chance at 33/1 either. The rest don't really appeal too much at the prices.

thesandeman

Ladbrokes are money back if 2nd to Frankel Pyro if you want to put ur pound on Ex.

mickey1979

25 max get ready for running around

x PyRo

No returns last Saturday. Night Carnation was below her best on ground much quicker than ideal and she didn't improve for the step up in trip either. She ran a very solid race in the circumstances and I can't really complain as I knew the risks involved in backing a horse without favourable conditions. It'll be interesting to see if she'll reappear next season and if she does, I'll be keeping a close eye on her. She's got plenty of talent, it's just a pity that she needs so much to be correct in order to show it.

Valencha ran the first truly awful race of her career and I'm not sure why. Not much else to say!

-7.00pts on the day.

3:10 Doncaster - Devdas - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

I'm not usually too keen to punt in these Juvenile H'caps but Clive Cox's Devdas should be more than capable of reaching the frame here and looks a cracking each-way bet at 8/1. In a short 5-race career to date, this well-bred colt hasn't finished out of the first four and has improved all of the time. There's bound to be a fair bit more to come off his current rating of 81 and with the exceptionally capable John Fahy taking off a further 3lbs (to leave him off 78), I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't get involved at the business end.

Devdas has a tendency to run too free in his races but it's quite likely that they'll go a good clip upfront here and hopefully that will help him. This will be the first time he lines out on a properly flat track on turf and that's another thing that I feel will help him quite a lot. Last time out, at Newmarket, Clive Cox's charge got unbalanced coming into the dip and threw away his chance of winning as a result. It was quite a farcical race in the way it was run (crawled early on, forcing him to over-race) but he kept on nicely for 3rd in a much tougher contest (although he was well-positioned throughout) and a slight step up on that run could be enough.

Devdas came into that race on the back of a mightily impressive win in a similar C4 contest to this when running on the July course, also at Newmarket. That was the first time he encountered both a mile and softer ground (could get a bit of cut today; good ground won't hinder), which he seemed to relish. A very impressive turn of foot saw him scoot clear of the field around a furlong from home and although he was quite idle in-front, he won by a comfortable 1¼ lengths in the end. He's effectively 3lbs higher here with the jockeys claim taken into account and I think he's potentially capable of having around 6-7lbs improvement in him yet (possibly more next year).

Whether he's actually able to run to that is another thing and the risk of a similarly unexposed type improving past him is large but he's definitely the perceived value call here at 8/1. I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that Devdas will make the first 3 and hopefully he will. There's a lot more to come from this fellow and Cox makes a 330 mile round trip to visit Doncaster for just one runner - with 6 of his others lining up at Newbury. I've a feeling this one could be subject to strong market support and if that occurs, 8/1 will look massive. Of the rest, James Given's Derby entrant, Buster Brown (10/1), is quite interesting but apart from him there's no real stand out animals. I'll just stick with Clive Cox to have yet another winner.

x PyRo

3:45 Doncaster - Mac's Power - 3pts @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Nothing has went right for Mac's Power this year but James Fanshawe's 5 year old sprinter remains a massively talented animal and if it all could come together today, he has a very live chance of winning this 22 runner, 6f sprint. For one reason or another, this progressive type is without a win in 6 attempts this season and hopefully it'll be a case of seventh time lucky for him. The return to Doncaster for the first time this season is bound to help, as he landed this race last year (albeit off a 10lb lower mark) and comes here with impressive course form reading; 2-1-7-1-4.

Mac's Power lined up in the Ayr Gold Cup when last seen (a month ago) but you can completely write that run off as a number of things conspired against him. Firstly, the very soft ground that he ran on isn't what he's after at all. Then, despite having what would of been a nice draw in stall 8, he was switched the whole way across the track to race in the other group. In the end, he hadn't a hope of getting involved and ran accordingly to finish virtually pulled up. It's not fair to judge him on that effort and if he had of run respectably at all, I'd imagine he'd be the clear favourite for this less competitive race.

All of the other seasonal performances from Mac's Power have been good (has excuses for a few, despite running well) and a return to the form that seen him come a 2¾ length 3rd behind Hoof It in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (don't think the track suits) would see him get involved here at the track where his only pair of turf wins have been achieved (also won over 7f here). His handicap mark of 100 is not insurmountable and connections now see fit to book Kieren Fallon for the first time in the horses 29-race career. Fallon has an exceptional record for the yard (7-26 this year) and he should prove to be an added bonus to an already talented animal.

It won't be an easy race for Mac's Power to win but he has a lot more in his favour now compared to recent outings and the ground seems to have come right for him - despite the time of year. He's relatively fresh given that he hasn't had too many outings this season and he looks to be the class horse of the race. I'm sure connections have had aspirations of taking on Group races with him and maybe they will next season, as he's still lightly-raced as a sprinter on turf and we all know how quick these speedy animals can improve, despite age. If he puts it all in today, he should run a good race and 9/1 looks like a nice price to me. Medium win stakes and hopefully he'll go well at a track that suits him perfectly. Of the remainder, Cheveton, Marvellous Value & Parisian Pyramid all came into the equation but I'll just stick with James Fanshawe's charge despite liking a few others.

x PyRo

No more. GL folks. :-)

3ndahalfof6

gl sir good to see you back.

x PyRo

No winners to report, unfortunately. Devdas ran a cracking race to return each-way money having finished in 3rd place. However, the way in which he travelled throughout the race suggested he was going to do even better than that and I thought he came with a winning run in the closing stages. It's just a pity that his previously impressive turn of foot seemed to desert him and although I thought the trip/track would suit, it's possible that he needs more of an emphasis put on stamina. There's more to come from him next year and he should get 1m 2f, assuming he'll settle (relaxed well yesterday). Into the tracker he goes.

Mac's Power was the exceptionally unlucky horse of the day and he's one of the most unlucky horses of the whole season. Having travelled well throughout, he was stuck with nowhere to go for over a furlong in his race and that put paid to his chances of winning the race. In the end, he ran on nicely into 5th place but it was all in vain. I'm not sure whether he'd of troubled the winner or not but he would of been a lot closer for sure and would of been 3rd at the very worst. Frustrating but that's the joys of big-field sprint handicaps.

-1.00pts on the day.

Keeping it relatively brief with some of them today.

1:30 Doncaster - Hot Spice - 3pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

I'm being a bit unoriginal here by backing the favourite in this 18 runner contest but Hot Spice looks overpriced at 7/1 and John Dunlop's 3 year old should be a lot shorter in the betting. In 2011, this talented gelding has won a couple of handicaps off marks of 64 & 67, the latter in very impressive fashion when running out a 2 length winner over this 1m 4f trip at Leicester. That was a much weaker contest than what he faces today but the way in which he travelled suggested he was a horse capable of finding even more improvement. The ground was also relatively fast that day and he does have quite a high knee action, so today's easier conditions will suit.

Since that victory on his penultimate outing, Hot Spice ran another excellent race at Leicester when going down narrowly off a 9lb higher mark in a 4-runner affair. The winner of that race, Luca Cumani's Franciscan, is a similarly progressive type and the pair pulled well clear of the others (who weren't that good mind). It's not a race to get carried away with by any means but given that it wasn't satisfactory for Dunlop's charge, the raw performance deserves upgrading. The ground was also fast on that occasion and he didn't look overly happy on it, but kept on all the way to the line. There's a fair chance that he'll get a bit further than this trip but for now, he remains unexposed in the main and especially over this trip.

Hot Spice went up a further 4lbs since his last run, leaving him nearly a stone higher than his last victory. However, I don't expect that he's in the grips of the handicapper just yet and could improve for the return to a less speed demanding surface (any unlikely rain would be very welcomed). The flatter track that he faces today will not inconvenience and not many of the opposition are open to as much improvement as he is. The big field will be right up his street and he's bound to get a solid pace to run after, which is something that's needed. It's just a case of whether the splits will come at the right time, but he'll have plenty of opportunity if he's good enough.

Hot Spice will also have the chance to get plenty of cover (can race keenly, so that should help) and Ted Durcan is back on board having ridden him for the first time in a handicap last time out. John Dunlop's yard are in expcetional form of late - with 4 winners and 4 seconds from his last 20 runners, so there's no better time to catch his runners. Overall, 7/1 is a cracking price (5's would be fair, maybe even shorter) and I'll play medium win stakes. Plenty of the rest are interesting but Hot Spice has the ability to improve well past this mark and hopefully he'll show that here.

x PyRo

2:00 Doncaster - Swilly Ferry - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

Taking a wild punt here in this 22-runner, 5f sprint handicap. Swilly Ferry is an exceptionally well-handicapped horse on some of his form last year and although he only has a few half-decent runs to his name this season, he's capable of getting involved at a fancy price here. Charles Hills' 4 year old colt hasn't set the world alight since scoring off a 7lb higher mark (96) over 6f at Newmarket last May but he's now dropped back to 5f for the first time since his opening couple of runs as a juvenile and that's taken to suit.

Swilly Ferry isn't lacking for speed at all and if first-time cheekpieces work the oracle, a return to form off a very nice rating wouldn't surprise me at all. He ran his best race of the year when 3rd over 6f at Goodwood in first-time blinkers a couple of starts ago and although it wasn't a fantastic run by any means (he had plenty to suit), it proved that he still retained a fair amount of his old ability. Hills' charge performed abysmally when last seen at the beginning of September, as he was tailed off in a similar contest to this. I can't spot any obvious reasons as to why he ran so poorly but he did the exact same thing on his previous 5 visits to York, so maybe he just doesn't like the place (despite having run well there at 2).

Swilly Ferry has no such bad form around this course, as he landed a very valuable sales race over 7f here during his juvenile campaign. He also ran excellent races on his only other pair of outings at this track (including on debut over this 5f trip) and the return to Doncaster could help spark a revival for a horse with undoubted talent. He's also likely to be freshened up significantly by a recent 48 day lay-off and can go well fresh, so hopefully that'll help him too. He's drawn in stall 22 of 22 and that's perfect, as high draws usually dominate the sprint races at this track.

The Charles Hills yard are in decent form of late (had a 33/1 winner here yesterday) and Robert Winston is on board this fellow for the first time, which is a definite step up on Michael Hills. Swilly Ferry is hardly a winner-in-waiting or anything but he's 25/1 here with 5 places being paid (28/1 with 4 places) and looks worthy of small stakes each-way support. If he can give his best, he could run a big race with plenty being in his favour. Stuart Williams' vastly improved 4 year old filly, Dreamacha (14/1), is the next-best bet and may be worthy of a few quid too. Tough race to get right but that pair look to be the value calls to me.

x PyRo

2:30 Doncaster - Accession - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

I'm going to side with a Cive Cox runner yet again here by backing Accession in this 6f juvenile Listed race. This speedily bred colt ran a cracker on debut (September 2nd) when just touched off by a well thought of Ed McMahon trained filly (bare form strong) and he duly stepped up on that performance when scooting away in a decent Newbury maiden a couple of weeks later. The way in which he travelled throughout before running on strongly to the line was in the style of a potentially very useful animal and this step up to Listed level shouldn't be a worry if all is well.

Accession was quite green on debut (according to Cox) but did look like the winner having quickened up nicely before getting swamped in the closing stages (got tired having run down a solid pace). Cox said after his next outing that if he had of went one better on debut that he'd of taken up his engagement in the Mill Reef and it's clear that this fellow is well thought of at home. It wasn't until the final furlong of the Newbury run that he got on top of a useful type but he was exceptionally strong at the finish when hitting top gear and should come on a fair amount for the experience, which will hopefully lead to him responding to pressure a bit quicker here - as he will have to.

Today's conditions should be perfect and the Doncaster track is ideal, so there's no worries there. Accession, despite being bred for sprint distances, could well get further in time (based on how strong he was at the finish last time out) but this test should be right up his street for the moment. A good gallop to run at is likely and with Clive Cox's animals being in such good form of late, there should be no excuses for him. I'm quite sure that he'll be more than good enough to hold his own at this level and Richard Hannon's impressive debut winning filly (flopped since; had excuses), Dreamwriter (6/1), is the only one I'm very worried by. I'm going to play medium win stakes on Cox's charge, as I feel he's quite a bit overpriced at 6/1 and should run a big race - hopefully one that ends in victory.

x PyRo

4:10 Doncaster - Stagecoach Danman - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places)

Things haven't went too well for Stagecoach Danman since he was an impressive, eased-down, 6-length maiden winner at Pontefract in June. However, I feel he's capable of laughing at his handicap rating of 80 if on song and given that he's a Mark Johnston trained animal, a return to form could occur at any time (although it's not something to bank on!). Despite 17 runners being set to go to post for this 1m 4f contest, Johnston's charge could well get an uncontested lead and if he does, he will prove to be very tough to peg back (although he doesn't need to lead).

Stagecoach Danman is still a very lightly-raced 3 year old having only lined up on 9 occasions (7 on turf) and there's bound to be a lot more to come once he returns to producing his best. When winning that maiden race over this trip at Pontefract, on his fifth career outing, Johnston's nicely bred gelding looked to be one to follow for handicaps but alas, his form went downhill somewhat. The assessor put him up 6lb (to 84) for that easy win and he was sent off as a 4/5 favourite over today's C&D when lining up next time out.

Stagecoach Danman was beaten by just over 3 lengths in the end but he got squeezed out when staying on late in the day and that ruined his chances, as he could well of won the race if he didn't suffer any interference. He has run poorly on 3 occasions since but has excuses for 2 of them (soft ground, trip and level of opposition made things very tough) and as a result he's dropped back to a mark of 80, which is very attractive if he's in the same vein of form as when scooting away at Pontefract in June. He's also droppped back to Class 4 level for the first time since his solid C&D run and that's bound to suit, as he was just flying too high (given the conditions) on his last few outings.

The favourite for today's race, Tartan Gunna, seems to be the first choice Johnston trained horse (SDS on board) but he's not reliable at all and looks much too short in the market at 6/1 (plus it's his first run at this trip). Jimmy Fortune takes the reins for a rare ride for the Johnston yard and he's 3 from 17 when riding for them. Fortune is an exceptional jockey in my opinion and he should be more than capable of coaxing the talented Stagecoach Danman into giving his best. The track, trip and ground are all ideal for this relentless galloping horse and overall, he looks quite overpriced at 16/1 with 4 places being paid. Small each-way stakes again as it's a very risky bet but if he is back to form, I fully expect a massive run from him. Hopefully he is.

x PyRo

Can't find anything at Newbury. Gouray Girl is running but it's a very competitive race and the ground might be quicker than she wants. 8/1 looks a bit short - she's bound to win now that I'm not on!

Right Step is also running at Newbury. I'd give him a shout at 25/1 but I'm too lazy to write anything - plus I don't want to stake any more bills.

Those four at Donny will do. Fingers crossed one will win. GL folks.

x PyRo

I'm cementing my place as one of the biggest jinxes in the world.

To kick me in the balls even more, Hazaz went and placed at 40/1 in the Horris Hill at Newbury. I didn't even spot him last night...

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm cementing my place as one of the biggest jinxes in the world...........

OMG that's like so not true :P

x PyRo

Thank God I didn't go for Right Step. That'd be the straw that broke the camel's back.

3ndahalfof6

when the jockey fell off him I have to say you did pop into my head, I was just hoping you were not about to jump off the skirting board.

I have actually backed 4 horses that had to be put down after their race, I know all about the jinx, but he wont beat me, I love making him cry with the big winners,

mind you I think he gets me more than I get him but its an interesting battle,

onwards and upwards sir, onwards and upwards. (is there such a saying)

UrbanSea

Backed Valencha a few days too early.

thesandeman

Seems Frankie was the cause of Right Steps mishap. He got a ban for it anyways.

x PyRo

Poor Right Step is such an unlucky horse!

UrbanSea wrote: »

Backed Valencha a few days too early.

When your luck and judgement is out, it's truly out. Usually I persist with the horses that I mark down as having more in hand but didn't this time. Typical that she'd win straight after the race in which I had a sizeable each-way bet on her.

Then from the ones I backed - Hot Spice didn't go on the ground. He needs it soft to win off this mark in such a competitive race by the looks of it.

Swilly Ferry couldn't get a run after being relatively well-backed into 16's - might not of mattered anyway as he wasn't going anywhere too quick but who knows.

Accession needs further/or possibly softer ground over 6f. Definitely one to keep in mind next year. Ran well to finish 4th considering.

Stagecoach Danman was extremely well-backed into 7's from 16's but he was quite one-paced when asked for an effort.

After the flat season I've had, I can't complain when the poor days come around. Not long to go now so hopefully there'll be another nice winner or two before it all ends.

Nothing for Sunday.

x PyRo

Saturday was full of fail. Not much else to say.

-10.00pts on the day.

1:30 Leicester - Daneside - 3pts @ 16/1 (PaddyPower)

With doubts being fairly easy to have over the market leaders in this C4 mile contest, siding with a bigger priced runner mightn't be a bad idea at all. The one that catches the eye is the Gary Harrison owned & trained Daneside - a progressive and lightly-raced 4 year old gelding. Whether or not the handicapper has caught up with him is debatable but off a mark of 72, with the capable Matthew Lawson taking off a further 5lbs, he may have one more win in him when things work out favourably.

Daneside comes here on the back of a couple of bad efforts, hence why he's available at such a large price. However, one of those runs came at Kempton on polytrack and he just didn't seem to be able to give his running on that surface. The other, last time out, was on very heavy ground at Haydock and that could possibly explain why he couldn't make up any ground from the rear of the field. It's fairly easy to overlook those efforts and if he was coming here without having lined up in those races, he most certainly wouldn't be a 16/1 shot.

If I just concentrate on Daneside's other 7 outings this season, his form reads an impressive 2-3-2-1-2-4-1. Since making his seasonal reappearance in June, he has progressed a total of 21lbs up the ratings and it's quite possible that there may be a little bit more to come. The main run I'm interested in came right before his pair of recent disappointments, as Harrison's charge ran out a most convincing winner over the stiff mile at Sandown. He travelled wide throughout - as he so often does - before taking up the running a couple of furlongs from home. It took him a little while to shake off his rivals but he was galloping away from them all the way to the line and eventually scored by 2¼ lengths off a mark of 66.

That was a similar contest to this and although Daneside had plenty in his favour on that occasion, it was a run that confirmed he wasn't caught in the grips of the handicapper. He's 6lbs higher here but this stiff track should help being out the best in him and the fast ground shouldn't pose any problems, so at least he has conditions that suit this time. His trainer had 50 runners between February of 2007 and July of this year without gaining a single success but since August, his animals have lined up on 31 occasions and won 4 times (including this fellow twice).

The owner-turned-trainer's yard are obviously going a lot better compared to their usual results and hopefully he can add another winner here. Today's jockey, Matthew Lawson, has 2 wins from 4 rides on Daneside and he's an exceptional 5lb claimer, so there's no better man to have on board. When I was looking at the race before any prices were available, I thought this fellow would be around the 6-8/1 mark, so to see him at 16's is a pleasant surprise. Yojimbo is currently rated as the best-priced 4/1 favourite and I'd imagine that's mainly down to the booking of Ryan Moore, as I'd question whether this animal is up to winning over a fast-ground stiff mile off a mark of 79. He could well be, but the price isn't exactly attractive and he's one to avoid here.

Jordaura is an even more under-priced at 5/1, as he seems to be a softer ground horse and just mightn't appreciate this test. He's also up 5lbs in the weights for winning over 2f further at Bath (good-to-soft) and this is a completely proposition, even though he looks nicely handicapped on early 2010 efforts for John Holt. West End Lad has won his last two starts over this C&D but it'll take a career-best effort to win this and 8/1 looks skinny given that he's an 8 year old that the handicapper knows all about. Uppercut is an interesting contender here and a consistent 3 year old but he just mightn't be up to winning this. I suspect he'd be at his best when getting a strong gallop over 7f, so whether he'll have things to suit here is debatable. 12/1 is a nice price about him, so a small saver bet wouldn't do any harm.

My Kingdom would be a gigantic price at 33/1 if he had more in his favour but again, I don't think he's after a stiff mile at all and he looked very poor on his last 3 runs for this yard. His debut for this yard, which was the race before disappointing last thrice, came over 7f at Newbury and he was a running-on 2nd of 15 in a much tougher contest. He's 4lbs lower here and down in grade but doubts over trip, ground and track would be enough for me to avoid getting tempted by such a big price. If he's around next year and available at that sort of price when things are more suitable, I'll definitely be on board. The others in the race don't interest me at all, even though I could be wrong to dismiss a couple of them so lightly.

Regardless, Daneside looks massively overpriced at 16/1 and I'll have a medium stakes win bet on him. I would play smallish each-way stakes usually but I'm feeling greedy and it's worth chancing everything on the win bet as it's only 1/5 of the price for a place. Harrison's charge should run a big race if he's on song and hopefully he will be. Equally, he could run a shocker given his last couple of unimpressive outings but I'm sure they weren't his true running's and this is a much more suitable race for him to run in. The yard are also making a 300 mile round trip to visit Leicester for the first time and let's hope this fellow lands the £4k prize to pay for the petrol home!

x PyRo

Daneside was strong in the market yesterday, eventually going off at 7/1. Unfortunately that's all he was strong in as all he could muster was 7th place. It seemed impossible to have any chance of coming from off the pace at Leicester and my selection was held up towards the rear, which neither suits him over this trip nor did it suit in general given how the track was riding.

I said Uppercut was worthy of a "small saver bet" when he was 12/1 and he eventually won the race having been well backed into 5/1. I didn't actually place that saver bet in the end, so it's typical that he'd go on to win! I'm still quite sure that he'll be better when getting a solid gallop to run at over a furlong shorter and he's one to keep an eye on in 2012, as there's bound to be more to come.

-3.00pts on the day.

Short write-ups today, as I'm actually awake at a normal time for once and hopefully won't miss any prices mid-writing!

2:50 Catterick - Clockmaker - 2pts @ 14/1 (Betfred, VC)

Clockmaker looks to be the most interesting runner in this 15 strong field and he's also the most overpriced animal at current odds of 14/1. Tim Easterby's yard can't buy a winner at the moment (0-43 last fortnight) but they've had more than enough run well to suggest that it's not a massive problem and I'm hopeful that their luck will change here.

This former John Gosden trained animal (changed hands for 23k last October) takes a drop back to Class 4 company for the first time since winning an all-weather contest off a 4lb lower mark over a mile at Kempton, achieved last June. Clockmaker hammered in that day in the style of an exceptionally talented horse and although he has been a bit disappointing since, including for current connections, I feel he's got enough in his locker to go very well here. Conditions shouldn't be a problem, the tight track will suit if he can make the best of a good draw and he'll get a race run to suit.

Clockmaker's recent trio of efforts have been atrocious on the face of it but he's had excuses and a return to the form that led to a half-length 2nd of 13 over this trip at Newcastle (on second outing for this yard) would see him go close off a 2lb lower mark in a weaker contest. He's still unexposed being a 5 year old that only raced once before a fairly hectic 4 year old campaign and I think he's got the potential to improve a lot more on a softer surface. Graham Gibbons being on board is another plus, as he's one of my favourite jockeys and if this animal puts his best foot forward, he can get involved in the closing stages at least. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.