PyRo's Horse Bets.

mickey1979

well done

x PyRo

Cheers Mick.

The National Hunt jinx returns! :pac: Travels nicely but can't jump - which is usually a problem.

Great day anyway.

seklly

x PyRo wrote: »

The start of gambling hell probably. Should be good craic anyway.

Still in gambling heaven!! Get in

x PyRo

seklly wrote: »

Still in gambling heaven!! Get in

Just about! Thank God for turf flat racing.

This has turned out to be a cracking month despite my earlier reservations combined with some poor judgement. Happy out.

3ndahalfof6

schweet sir with cheeries

UrbanSea

Nice one bruv.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN3GbF9Bx6E

restingpilgrim

x PyRo wrote: »

First National Hunt bet (God help me). Not going to write much about them for a while.

3:20 Wetherby - Phidippides - 1pt @ 7/1 (Boyles)

The 7-year-old Phidippides is very highly thought of at Evan Williams' yard and if he's readied first time out, he's potentially well-treated off a handicap mark of 136. He won his opening pair of hurdle contests (both 2m 5f) in 09/10 before failing to give his best in a G1 at Aintree (3m 1f) that same season (travelled very well but dropped out). Last year he ran well first time up (cause for optimism here) when finishing a length behind the talented Jonjo O'Neill trained Rock Noir on his chasing debut and duly went one better with a 12 length win when sent off as a 2/7 shot in a poor contest at Ludlow (2m 4f).

Phidippides then disappointed on his other pair of starts that season, with ground being a valid excuse for the first occasion and poor jumping under pressure costing him a chance on the second. Williams has since reported that he has strengthened up well since taking a break and he's still hopeful that he can live up to the previous high expectations. If he can, a mark of 136 is very workable and I see no reason why he can't have a say in this contest with ground, trip and track all being to suit. It's all a case of whether he's forward enough to take this race but the yard are in good knick and 7/1 looks a price worth taking a small chance on.

Anyone who backed this with Mulhollands in Galway they gave money back on this

Derek!

Good work again Pyro bit late but some of us have a crazy sleepin pattern

x PyRo

Cheers lads.

---

Artistic Jewel finally got the chance to show her best and duly obliged at Newmarket with a comfortable 3½ length victory. She was always travelling well alongside the leaders and picked up wonderfully when finding her stride. The stiff 6f played into her hands, even though she didn't handle the dip too well, and she won in the style of a Group performer. I'd say she will be exactly that if she comes back as good at 3 and even a step up to 7 furlongs wouldn't go astray on an easier track. She just needs time to hit top gear and she got that yesterday, thankfully. Great performance, even though it wasn't the best Listed contest you'd ever see.

Phidippides was cruising along when he departed 6 out at Wetherby yesterday and it's just a pity that his jumping couldn't hold up, as I'm quite sure he'd of troubled the winner if it had. Connections have a brilliant horse on their hands and he'll be picking up a nice prize if they can sort out his jumping. Keeping him to flat, galloping tracks with easier fences looks the way to go and I'll be keeping an eye out on him. He's exceptionally well-handicapped when everything comes together and it will eventually.

+10.00pts on a very good day. This has actually turned out to be a cracking month.

3:15 Newmarket - Afkar - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 4 places)

There's a fair chance I'm throwing away a few bills here but Afkar looks worthy of support at a fancy price in this Class 3, 1 mile handicap. Clive Brittain's well-bred colt is yet to achieve victory in 5 attempts but apart from running below form last time out, he has proved to be admirably consistent in maiden company. His first 3 careers starts, including one run as a juvenile, resulted in second placed finishes over 6, 7 & 8f - all coming in fairly useful races that have received boosts to the form since.

The other run in that sequence of decent performances - Afkar's penultimate outing (first run in a handicap; 3lbs lower today) - came over a mile at Yarmouth and although he finished 7th of 9, he was just beaten by 4 lengths in a race where he dictated a slow gallop before trying to quicken from the front - something which I don't believe suited him at all. Although he was fairly strong in the market, there's a fair chance that he needed the run on the back of a 4+ month lay-off and I'd probably mark up the efforts a bit. He's certainly capable of a lot better when on song. He just can't quicken fast enough to win a race won like that.

Last time out, Afkar lined up in a competitive conditions race at Doncaster this day last week but he was quite wrong at the weights with the majority of the field and the return to 7f wasn't in his favour (nor was the track). He was under pressure a fair way from home and didn't give any sort of running for the first time in his career, so I'm more than happy to view that performance as being an untrue reflection of his ability - although it is the basis for his price so I suppose it's no bad thing.

The return to a mile is sure to be a plus today and this track holds no issues, as Afkar ran a head-second to a decent type in a maiden here in April. He was never stronger than at the finish over 7f that day and I'm sure he'll be capable of improving on that over today's trip. Whether or not he's capable of defying a mark of 82 against this sort of opposition has to be a massive worry but Brittain now reaches for blinkers and they could help him find more improvement if they don't light him up too much. He's hardly a winner-in-waiting at this level but he's talented, a fine looker, unexposed, suited to conditions and overpriced at current odds of 50/1. I'll have a tiny each-way bet in the hope that he can run well and nab a place.

x PyRo

5:00 Newmarket - Sunrise Safari - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (VC - 4 places)

Finding the winner of this highly competitive 22-runner contest isn't one bit easy and an unexposed, once-raced John Gosden colt currently heads the market at 9/2. He's definitely worth taking on in a race of this nature and Sunrise Safari looks to be a lively outsider if he can put his best foot forward. It's a year and a bit since Richard Fahey's 8-year-old last tasted victory (in a claimer) but he has put in plenty of performances this year to suggest that he's no forlorn hope and I expect a good showing here if all is well.

Sunrise Safari now drops to a career-low mark of 75 for the first time in his 61-race career (rated 100 at peak) and I think he's very dangerously handicapped in a contest like this - as it's clear he retains plenty of ability despite his age. Fahey's charge is actually very unexposed at this 7f trip having only lined up over it on 6 occasions. His form figures are as very consistent at this trip and if he was mine I'd be keeping him to it nowadays.

Sunrise Safari has actually only raced once over a stiff 7f and on that occasion he was a running-on 2nd of 9 at Beverley in June, albeit in a less competitive race. He will obviously have to step up on that here but it's not beyond the realms of possibility at all and with conditions to suit being combined with a solid gallop to run after (which he needs), a big run could be on the cards for this talented veteran.

The main basis for his price is a below-form effort in a claimer last time out but that was at the speedy Windsor track over 6f and that's not a suitable test for him now - so you can overlook it. It was also run to favour those on the pace, so he never really had a chance despite staying on strongly to be nearest at the finish. A replication of Sunrise Safari's run when he was 3rd of 18 at York three starts ago would see him in with a very big chance at a more suitable track and he's being exceptionally underrated in the market.

That was also off a 3lbs higher mark and the last time Lee Topliss was on board, so to see the pair reunited is a plus in my book. Topliss is an exceptional talent (huge value for the claim) and takes off a further 3lbs to leave Sunrise Safari running off a mark of 72 - bottom weight in this contest. He's potentially thrown in if producing his best here today but he is a moody type and whether he'll run to his best has to be considered a massive doubt. 22/1 is a very big price though and I'll happily play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can. It's a very competitive race but he's more than up to having a say in it if all goes well and fingers crossed that it will.

ft9

9a.m.

The fcuk???

x PyRo

Being normal ftw.

x PyRo

National Hunt Selections:

3:00 Ascot - Kumbeshwar - 1pt @ 7/1 (WillHill, General)

Kumbeshwar was an exceptionally talented juvenile hurdler last season and was unlucky to find one too good on 3 occasions in Graded races, including twice in Grade 1's. However, Alan King's charge is taken to go one better here and gain his first success since his opening race in this code, achieved in February of this year. The track and ground should suit perfectly whilst his handicap mark of 145 shouldn't prove insurmountable if readied to go well first time up. It's an extremely competitive contest in which many can be given live chances but this fellow is bound to run a big race if at the top of his game and 7/1 looks like a decent price about him. King has reported that he has strengthened up very well on the back of a summer break and this looks like a winnable opportunity for a horse who should go on to bigger and better things later in the season.

3:20 Wetherby - Diamond Harry - 3pts @ 3/1 (Bet365, VC)

Backing horses first time out after an injury is risky but the vibes about Diamond Harry are quite positive and if he returns here like the horse who won the Hennessy Gold Cup first time up at Newbury last year, he's bound to run a massive race. The key to this horse seems to be flat, galloping tracks as 2 of his only 3 defeats have come at Cheltenham (once over hurdles, once over fences; both G1's) with the other being at the hands of the brilliant Big Buck's on heavy ground on the hurdle course at Newbury (only defeat in 6 outings at that track). His other 10 runs have ended in victory and it's clear as day that this fellow could be of the highest class when he's on song (was as short as 7/1 when injury rules him out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup). Wetherby isn't too unlike Newbury and this is the sort of place where Nick Williams' 8-year-old will be able to give his best. Quite how good his best is going to be after a ligament injury is up for debate but with plenty of positive reports to be found, he's likely to be spot on for this G2 challenge. The lay-off shouldn't be a problem as the horse is unbeaten first time up and the yards horses seem to be going quite well generally. Their charge should really take all of the beating if he's in tip-top conditions today and 3/1 looks like a backable price for such a high-class animal. I'll play medium win stakes on him and hopefully he'll go well.

3:40 Ascot - Bideford Legend - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365, WillHill)

Bideford Legend has an 8lb swing in the weights with Muirhead for a 1¾ length beating (winner value for more) in the Munster National at Limerick a few weeks ago and with the weight differential being combined with the different ground/track, that form can be turned around here. Charles Byrnes' charge is clearly in fine fettle of late and progressing at a rapid rate of knots and there's no reason to expect that to stop here. He jumps well, travels like a dream and stays well, so he's a likely type to continue on moving up the ranks for another little while yet when getting things to suit. Today he's got the brilliant Barry Geraghty on board for the first time and he has an exceptional record at this track in the past 5 years with 22 of his 54 rides ending up in the winners enclosure. There's obviously no better man for the job here and Geraghty doesn't ride too often for the yard but still boasts fine figures with 4 wins from 9 rides since 2010. It'll be a very tough race to win but Byrnes' 7-year-old is very talented and on an upward curve, so he's worth taking a chance on at 8/1. Small win stakes again, as I don't usually pick winners in these types of races!

restingpilgrim

Diamond Harry is a n/r lame

x PyRo

No luck, been a while since I've picked a Saturday winner. Afkar ended up getting beat by a long way but he travelled nicely enough before dropping out and he's definitely a better horse than the result suggests. Not much else to say.

Sunrise Safari had his chance (traded at 9/2 in the run) but he weakened out of contention in the closing stages and is another to rate better than the bare result. He was a bit keen early on as well, which didn't help. Can't complain though, he gave it a good shot - just not good enough on the day.

Kumbeshwar set out to make the running but he was stalked all the way and couldn't shake the field off at any stage. He was another to drop out when headed (wasn't given a hard time). The Greatwood Hurdle is said to be the aim now and given how well he ran off top-weight in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham last season, he'll be one to consider for sure. He's currently available at 16/1 and that doesn't look too bad, although I'll wait for a while because all of my ante-post bets end up going wrong!

Diamond Harry was a non-runner whilst Bideford Legend unfortunately had a fatal fall when still in contention and going relatively well. Such a pity for connections and my National Hunt jinx struck hard again.

-6.00pts on the day.

3:35 Huntingdon - Go Amwell - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365)

John Jenkins' 8-year-old Go Amwell isn't an easy one to win with but if Robert Thornton (on board for the first time) can get a good tune out of him, he's potentially very well-treated off 2lbs lower than his last win. That was achieved over this speedy C&D last season when scoring comfortably in a similar contest. Things obviously haven't went too well since but he has dropped in the ratings as a result and now looks dangerously handicapped if putting it all in.

His last run was nearly 3 weeks ago over this C&D and although he was beaten a long way in the end, it doesn't tell the whole story. Under Timmy Murphy (who gets on well with the horse), Go Amwell was well out the back throughout the race and looking disinterested before moving into a position to challenge a few hurdles from home. His effort flattened out somewhat in the straight and he had nothing left to give but that's fairly understandable given how the race panned for him (it also seemed very tough for the hold-up horses to get involved).

If Thornton could just get him interested in the early stages then I'm sure his often strong-travelling ways will lead to him having some sort of chance of getting involved at the business end. Obviously the risk of similar goings on occurring are relatively large as he's a tricky horse but 14/1 looks like a nice price about him and I'll take a small chance. If Go Amwell can put it all in, he's sure to get involved with conditions to suit perfectly. If he's acting up and detached out the back early, it'll be a point wasted. No harm though, it's worth the risk in a race of this nature.

x PyRo

Last one.

2:40 Carlisle - Humbie - 2pts @ 6/1 (Boyles, VC)

The way in which Humbie jumped and travelled when winning over C&D on his first outing of the season (just over 3 weeks ago) suggests that he's a horse with more to come and a 7lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him here. It'll take another career best effort for this lightly-raced 7-year-old to win but he's got more than enough about him to improve past his current rating of 122 over this sort of trip. He should get further too without much problem, especially on the easier tracks.

The race Humbie won was a lot weaker than today's contest but that was his first attempt on a right-handed track and it seemed to being out a lot of improvement with regards to his jumping - something which had let him down on plenty of occasions last season. If he's in the same vein of form he should prove to be a very lively contender with conditions being to suit. He also took quite a keen hold last time out and today's race should be run at a better gallop, which will help if he's able to jump as well on the back of a stronger pace.

His trainer, Pauline Robson, has an exceptional strike-rate at Carlisle with 5 of her 19 runners landing the spoils and she seems to have her yard in good order early in the season. From just 4 runners, 2 have won and another has placed, which is encouraging despite the small sample. Timmy Murphy being on board again is a plus as he gets on well with the horse having guided him to both of his chasing wins to date and he also rides the track well. Humbie faces a tough task to follow up on his recent win but he's going the right way and worth having a small/medium bet on here. If his jumping holds up again (it should do given how easy the Carlisle fences are), he'll be in the frame at least.

x PyRo

Quite unlucky not to pick up a winner yesterday with Humbie looking to have a massive chance two out (hit 1.40 in-running). However, he jumped left at that fence and then lugged to his right on the run down to the final flight. He was still upsides the eventual winner at that stage but having got in a bit low at the last, his jockey seemed to lose an iron or get unbalanced and all was lost. He was a tired horse in the end and may just prefer better ground, even though it wasn't too testing at all. Disappointing finish but he ran a cracker.

Go Amwell ran the race I was hoping he wouldn't, as he stayed out the back for a long time and had to use up a lot of energy just to get into contention. He travelled well in the main but had nothing left when latching onto the leading ground and he faded out of the race after. Given how unreliable he is, it may be best to leave him alone from now on. He's talented, but rarely gives his best.

-3.00pts on the day.

2:40 Kempton - Beyond - 2pts @ 5/2 (Boylesports)

The step up to 2m 5f at a track like this could bring out untold improvement for Beyond on his hurdling debut for the David Pipe yard. This well-bred 4-year-old comes here fit and ready to go on the back of a sound showing in the Cesarewitch on the flat and off a mark of 121, he looks very well-treated if finding the improvement that is sure to be in his locker over this sort of trip. He was useful in a few runs on the flat for Jeremy Noseda and won twice in this code for Evan Williams last year before having his final run in the Grade 3 Fred Winter at Cheltenham. He ran a modest race on that occasion but just doesn't have the pace for the 2m trip. The sound surface and flat, fast track should play into his strengths and with David Pipe working his magic, this horse looks more than capable of winning a race like this. I have my reservations about some of the opposition and probably should play relatively large stakes given how overpriced I feel the horse is but I'll take the safe route and have a small/medium win bet. Hopefully he'll go well and win.

x PyRo

4:20 Kempton - Serious Choice - 1pt @ 9/2 (VC, WillHill)

Serious Choice shaped on recent starts as if he was capable of landing a race like this and with the very capable Matt Griffiths taking off 3lbs in this conditional jockeys race, he looks worthy of support at 9/2. Philip Hobbs' 6-year-old hasn't won since scoring impressively off a 1lb lower mark at Newton Abbot in April of 2010 but he has only lined out over jumps on two occasions since and still remains lightly-raced in this code with just 7 runs under his belt. The ground and track should be no issue and the only worry I'd have is whether he's quick enough for the bare 2 miles. If he is, he's sure to go well for an in-form stable as the opposition aren't really up to much and a couple of the main rivals have gone up the weights despite not winning last time out. Hobbs' charge is down 2lbs for running a decent race a few weeks ago and he looks like the one to side with here. 9/2 is a nice enough price about him in a race of this nature and I'll have a small win bet.

x PyRo

Final bet and my first AW selection. The majority of my winter bets will be coming in this code once it hits full stride. Should be interesting trying to spot potential plots!

Statistics will be kept separately for both .

5:00 Wolverhampton - Munsarim - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Munsarim makes his all-weather debut in this race but if he takes to the surface, there's no reason why he can't go well in this fairly modest contest. Keith Dalgleish's 4-year-old is ultra-reliant on getting a properly fast surface and as a result of disappointing last thrice on ground & tracks that may just not have suited, he's quite attractively handicapped off a mark just 1lb higher than his last turf win. That was a comfortable win on fast ground at Ayr in July and shows just how competitive he can get when things fall into place for him. Whether they will in this race is another thing but 20/1 is a very large price about him. Joe Fanning hops back on board for the first time since guiding the horse to a win over 1m 2f at Newcastle and he's 1 from 1 when taking the reins on this animal. The yard are in cracking form of late, so that's even more encouragement and they're 14 from 42 (30% strike-rate) when Fanning is on board. Overall, 20/1 is just too big for this animal and a small each-way stake will do no harm.

3ndahalfof6

Hi xPyRo I do like to thank your post but for some reason I keep getting this message


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Killed

I read a few years ago that 4 yr olds have a poor record in all age handicaps over hurdles. I can't verify it but it's been something I take into account when having a punt. It could be something to throw into the mix when you're assessing a race.

x PyRo

@3 - I've no idea bud. Must be a mistake in the system somewhere or other!

@Killed - Cheers for that, I'll look into it as they're usually the ones that draw me in over hurdles. Usually it's the opposite on the flat where I ignore the younger ones and back the exposed looking horses.

---

Beyond just went off too hard in front. Battled on well in fairness to him, just not good enough in the end. Should be interesting to see how he progresses with Pipe but that was disappointing. Oh well, that's how she goes!

Hopefully the other couple run well.

x PyRo

Munsarim was well-backed into 8/1 and placed. Pity he was caught wide throughout and didn't like the kickback at all. Could of been different otherwise, who knows.

+1pt today anyway. I'll takes it!

3ndahalfof6

n1 sir I got it @ 16s

x PyRo

Back with reasoning soon. Don't want to miss the price..

3:50 Exeter - Rockabilly - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles)

thesandeman

You must have a serious wager on it lol. Best price only 13/2 already.

x PyRo

Nah just a small enough one for me dude. The price was collapsing already hence why I was in a rush to get it posted! The support so far is very encouraging. 13/2 is a grand price still, wouldn't take anything less than 6's.

x PyRo

Beyond and Serious Choice were both disappointing at Kempton. The former just isn't going to be as good as I thought he could be, whilst the latter was severely hindered by the main pace influence becoming a non-runner earlier in the day. It's probably safe to say that I won't be backing either of them again.

Over at Wolverhampton, Munsarim was strongly supported into 8/1 (from 20's early on) and duly ran a big race to finish in 3rd place. Had a few things went his way, he would of won that race as he was caught out wide, positioned too far back and looked uncomfortable mid-race due to the kickback. It was a very good run from him though and ensured a small profit on the day. Can't complain.

+1.00pts on the day.

3:50 Exeter - Rockabilly - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles)

The Twiston-Davies team can do no wrong at the moment and anything they're sending out deserves a lot of respect. In the past fortnight, 9 of their 36 runners have won with a further 7 coming home in second. In fact their last 4 runners have all won and they make a near 300 mile round trip for just a couple of runners at Exeter today. Rockabilly looks to be their liveliest chance if he can put it all in on his chasing debut and he looks just the type to excel in this code. He's so unexposed having run on just 4 occasions over hurdles and his only win came over C&D. I backed him when he ran out a 1 length winner off 101 in a weak hurdle (at 14/1; on h'cap debut) but he lines out today off just 105 and that's potentially lenient if he improves for the switch to chasing as expected. In time, he'll get more than this 3m trip but for now it should be suitable (especially at this track) and he's an interesting contender at this level. Smallish win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

x PyRo

All-Weather Selections:

2:30 Kempton - Alis Aquilae - 1pt @ 13/2 (Betfred, PaddyPower)

Tim Etherington hasn't had a winner in a long time but Alis Aquilae could change that here if getting some luck over the flying 5 furlongs at Kempton. He's a 5-year-old now but he's completely unexposed having only lined up to race on 9 occasions and just once on the polytrack surface. The general train of thought is that he's best when fresh and his form suggests that - so to see him come here on the back of a 2 month lay-off is a plus. It's probable that he's had some problems but he's potentially very useful at lower grades based on how he can travel and today's handicap rating of 65 looks very manageable, especially now that he drops back to C6 level for the first time. His only all-weather run came at this track over a furlong further and he was very, very unlucky in-running. It's a run that pretty much confirms he handles the ground and he's now 10lbs lower than that mark just over a year later. If he gets a solid pace to run at and some luck in-running from his inside draw, he should go well and get involved.

x PyRo

5:00 Kempton - Musashi - 1pt @ 14/1 (PaddyPower, WillHill)

Musashi doesn't win too often but he's useful on his day and the removal of blinkers could well be a good thing, as they seem to be lighting him up too much. His last win came off a 2lb higher mark in a slightly better contest at this course over 1m 2f. Today's 1m 4f trip shouldn't be an issue if he can break away on terms (often slowly away) and settle, which isn't always a given with such a tricky horse. However, if things just worked in his favour then he should prove to be a very lively candidate in such a modest contest. Ian Mongan being on board is another plus, as he's the only jockey to have managed to guide this fellow to victory and he also rides the course exceptionally well. The Laura Mongan yard are prone to the odd big-priced winner around here and hopefully they can add another in this race. Overall, he's a massively risky proposition but 14/1 is a nice price about this well-handicapped animal and small win stakes will do no harm.