PyRo's Horse Bets.

FOXFISH1

FANTASTIC work @Pyro! Keep it up!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Unread dude, well done

dannn17

Great thread, you going to be carrying on throughout jump season?

x PyRo

Cheers lads, very pleased with that. Makes a change after how the winter of 2010/11 went! *shudders*

I will surely Dannn, although it may be a bit foolish given how last year went. No point in just accepting defeat though and I'll just work twice as hard to try and solve the races. Should be interesting to see how it'll all go but I'd advise anyone who follows to leave well alone until the next flat season. It's bad enough if I lose money but it'd be worse if others did too.

Derek!

I think you can crack the NH if you stick at it well done on all your success so far, long may it continue

stingerro

Top stuff Pyro, good luck during NH season.

x PyRo

Cheers men, really appreciate it.

Time for a pint and then back to finding horses to come second or third tomorrow! Would be lovely if one decided to win for the craic!

lamoss

Well done, You put a lot of effort in and it pays off.:)

I hope you crack the National hunt meetings the same way.
Would you consider using your skills to have a go on the football :cool:

SlowJack

You very committed, I like reading your right-ups and backed a few of them myself...;)

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

.......................

Profit - +235.78pts

Bets - 281
Wins - 31
Placed - 58
Win SR - 11%
Staked - 722.00pts
Returned - 957.78pts
ROI/Yield - +33%........................

That's absolutely tremendous, well done.
As well as the winners being mainly long shots it does illustrate the importance of actual value in finding the best possible available price.

Unreal stuff, well done again.

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments lads, hopefully next year can go as well.

Lamoss, definitely not! No more football bets for me. Too time consuming and very little room for error. At least I can be wrong with the horses 9 times out of 10 and still make a very high profit.

RJ, spot on. Getting the best prices is a must, although my actual profit in the past couple of years is significantly higher because I use the exchanges. Using industry prices for the thread just makes everything easier with regards to keeping records etc.

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Temple Lord looked set to score yesterday (hit 1.17 in-running) when seemingly handed the race on a plate after the horse who was going to win made a very bad blunder. However, the winner of last years running of this race came out of the clouds to nail my selection in the closing stages and that was that. It was a very promising run though, as he jumped and travelled well throughout, even though he was fortunate to be in with a chance of winning at any stage. Can't complain, but it would have been nice if he won!

-3.00pts on the day.

3:30 Carlisle - Mr Woods - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)

Mr Woods has only managed to complete the race on 1 of his last 8 outings but as a result he has dropped to a handicap mark of 105 (down 22lbs from peak chase rating), and that's very attractive with useful conditional Gary Rutherford taking off a further 7lbs. The main reason why the Harriet Graham trained 9-year-old has run so poorly is down to racing on soft, and often heavy, ground. He is a good ground horse and although today's ground will have a little bit of ease in it, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. He also goes well at the track when getting his conditions, as he won a chase here when rated 124 and has finished 2nd at the track on no fewer than 4 occasions - all from just 9 outings.

It's also a positive that Mr Woods is dropping into a Class 4 Handicap for the first time ever, as I feel he was biting off more than he could chew on his recent outings, regardless of the ground. He's so well-handicapped nowadays that if he can put it all in victory will await. There's a lot more to it than that but with conditions being more suitable, he's worthy of support at 20/1. I'd rate 10/1 as being a fair price for him in this company (could make claims for him being shorter, despite recent form), so small/medium each-way stakes will be played. Hopefully he'll go well and run into a place at least. It's a risky one though, so God knows what'll happen!

x PyRo

Christ. Very well backed into 10's before the off. Was jumping lovely and travelling like a dream (trading at about 4/1 at the time) when he made a mistake and unseated the jockey, again. Would imagine he'd of placed at least and who knows after that, even though the winner was ultra-impressive. Gutted, just can't catch a break at the moment.

100% sure he'll win in that grade if he gets his ground, keep an eye on him.

RoyalAcademy2

Congratulations on returning a profit, working so hard and, above all, persevering with the task.

As I am often conflicted as to whether or not each-way betting is a "safety first" approach or a waste of a winning stake, I took a quick look at your staking pattern on successful each-way bets, including winners.

I reckon your place betting returned about 249 units to an outlay of 221 units. If all bets were win-only (1.50 e/w becoming 3.0 win) the additional win units would have been almost exactly the same i.e. 250 units. I presume the higher win frequency of the placed horses allows for more comfortable punting.

stingerro

RoyalAcademy2 wrote: »

Congratulations on returning a profit, working so hard and, above all, persevering with the task.

As I am often conflicted as to whether or not each-way betting is a "safety first" approach or a waste of a winning stake, I took a quick look at your staking pattern on successful each-way bets, including winners.

I reckon your place betting returned about 249 units to an outlay of 221 units. If all bets were win-only (1.50 e/w becoming 3.0 win) the additional win units would have been almost exactly the same i.e. 250 units. I presume the higher win frequency of the placed horses allows for more comfortable punting.

And any knowledge how it would look (more of less) if all tips would be each-way? Did you check it maybe too?

x PyRo

Cheers RA. The each-way punting is definitely a thing I've considered quite a lot and the more I thought about it, the more I was thinking that it'd be better to play win-only.

But simply for confidence, given that my win strike-rate is low because of the odds I play (and long losing runs are inevitable), I prefer to do it for peace of mind more than anything else. At the end of the day, if it helps with how much money I'll make in the long-term, it's well worth it. Confidence in what you're doing is everything imo.

Like when I went 49 runners without a winner, I had 14 each-way selections run into a place (returning some cash in the process) and that kind of saved me from being overly worried about it, even though it was so frustrating.

Anyway, I just bet for fun and enjoyment, so as long as I'm in profit I'll keep going. If I could only master the National Hunt I'd be away with it! Between bad luck and bad judgement, I just can't hit in that code. From 14 bets over jumps so far, 5 have placed and 5 haven't even finished the race, 3 of which were still going very nicely when either falling or unseating. At least I don't get any of that craic on the flat! I'll keep trying anyway, no point in accepting defeat until I'm completely battered and bruised, which will probably be right after Cheltenham!

x PyRo

Mr Woods was well-backed before the off, eventually going off as a 10/1 shot (backed at 20's). However, having jumped well and travelled into contention still going well within himself, he made a slight mistake 5 out and then pecked just after landing, at which point he parted company with his jockey. The eventual winner won very easily but my selection was going as well as anything when his race was cut short and I think he would have made a good race of it at the very least.

He almost certainly would have run into a place and it's very unfortunate that he came to grief once again, as that was the first time he had his ground in quite a while. He remains one to be very interested in if the ground is no worse than good-to-soft over the coming months and he'll eventually get his just deserts and I intend to be on, hopefully at a fancy price again. Quite gutted about how that all panned out but that's racing and there'll be plenty more of those I'm sure.

-3.00pts on the day.

Early one for tomorrow. May have one more tomorrow morning, going to sleep on it!

2:30 Sedgefield - Night In Milan - 3pts @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

Night In Milan comes here on the back of being off the track since March and although fitness has to be taken completely on trust, as does his ability to actually jump a fence, he looks worthy of support on his chasing debut. Keith Reveley's lightly-raced 5-year-old could prove to be a class above this modest field if he's ready to go and hopefully he will be. In a busy spell over hurdles between November 2010 and March of this year, this fellow lined out on 8 occasions, winning twice in handicaps off marks of 90 & 100. He would of also landed another race (over C&D) if it wasn't for such a poor ride from some conditional jockey that I've never heard of.

After his final win over hurdles, achieved over today's 2m 4f trip at the stiff Newcastle track, Reveley's charge was very well supported in a pair of Class 3 Handicaps off marks of 112 & 110. On both occasions, he finished well back in the field but given the fact that he was running on heavy (over 2m) and soft ground (over 3m), something that doesn't seem to suit him at all (won despite the ground previously), they're easily forgiven. I also think there was a couple of other excuses and I'm happy enough to write them off completely, as he's better than that.

Night In Milan gets a much sounder surface today on his return from a break and that should prove to be ideal, along with the trip at this undulating, speedy track. The fences are very easy here, so it looks like a good place to start him out and he really looks like the type who should excel in this code. Given how fancied he was in the market when running off higher marks over hurdles, connections must think he's capable of a lot better than he has shown to date and I feel today's rating of 107 could be very workable to say the least. The yard are also in good form and do well here (7-41), as does his regular jockey James Reveley (15-81), who's on board today. 4/1 looks like a very big price to me and I'll play medium win stakes, even though I'm tempted to put even more on. Plenty of risk and guesswork involved but he looked like he could make into a very nice handicap hurdler and he should prove to be an even better chaser in time. Hopefully he'll start it all off with a nice win here.

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

List of winners -

28 October – Artistic Jewel – 2pts @ 11/2

25 October – Clockmaker – 2pts @ 14/1

10 October – Loki’s Revenge – 2pts e/w @ 16/1

23 September – Alsindi – 2pts @ 8/1

15 September – Take It To The Max – 3pts @ 9/2

11 September – Tagula Night – 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1

10 September – Trumpet Major – 1pt @ 10/1

7 September – Eureka – 2pts @ 9/2

5 September – Aegean Destiny – 0.50pts e/w @ 14/1

19 August – Margot Did – 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1

17 August – Sea Moon – 3pts @ 11/2

23 July – Swiss Dream – 1pt e/w @ 12/1

16 July – Dux Scholar – 4pts @ 9/2

14 July – Jarrow – 3pts @ 7/1

9 July – Green Destiny – 3pts @ 8/1

2 July – Night Carnation – 2pts @ 13/2

29 June – Orpsie Boy – 1pt e/w @ 18/1

24 June – Ancient Cross – 3pts @ 11/1

16 June – Brown Panther – 5pts @ 13/2

15 June – Julienas – 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1

15 June – Strong Suit – 2pts e/w @ 14/1

14 June – Canford Cliffs – 5pts @ 6/4

09 June – Taurus Twins – 2pts e/w @ 8/1

01 June – Addictive Dream – 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1

01 June – Submission – 3pts @ 3/1

31 May – Azameera – 2pts @ 7/1

26 May – Rock The Stars – 3pts @ 6/1

21 May – Brown Panther – 3pts @ 4/1

16 April – Rimth – 2pts @ 13/2

04 April – Taurus Twins – 1pt e/w @ 16/1

31 March - Nimue - 3pts @ 9/2

If only you'd done the accum


Well done XP on 2011, exceptional calls, each and every one.

You should get yourself on Twitter for next years flat season man. You could just post up links to your posts here, with only the name of the horse and price up there. Could build up a quite good following with your obvious talents for reading the form and spotting value, and sure who knows where that could lead.

Anyway, cheers for this year's selections, was on many of 'em

x PyRo

Oh if only. :pac: I'll take winning single bets all day long though!

Cheers Pete, much appreciated. Just hope I can hit similar results next season (I see no reason why I can't) and I'll be happy out. Still holding some hope of doing well over the winter but not too optimistic. The value radar is there and working, the ability to catch the horse on the right day just isn't!

I am on twitter actually, bloody love it! Currently got 996 followers. #iwant1000 #iwantMOAR! Met a few interesting folks through it already and God knows what could pop up. Don't think Tom or Hugh need replacing just yet though... lol. :pac:

argosy2006

Hit the post again!!!
Crazy bad luck man !

restingpilgrim

Few more grey hairs from Milan !!

NaiveMelodies

Well you've defo cracked it with your last few picks, A tiny bit of luck and your sorted. I'll bet that you'll break a profit from the NH season with the way your going.

Caveman1

Night in Milan let me down for a lucky 15 but thats racing for ya.

Keep up the good work Pyro your on the right track just need to stick with it. Im definitely gonna keep backing your selections as I know the first one I dont back will rattle home at a tasty price

x PyRo

Damn it anyway. Someone up above must think I'm a notorious prick altogether!

That's now 3 of the last 4 NH bets that have come 2nd (traded at 1.08, 1.17 & 1.66 in-running). My last 2 All-Weather bets finished 3rd and were done at 1.05 & 2.18. Christ.

Sloppy jumping and racing wide for quite a while (to be given a good look at the fences) cost NIM in the end. Must have been very fancied too given that he halved in price. There's plenty to come from that horse over fences and hopefully he'll be a backable price again soon.

This game certainly isn't for the faint hearted at all. Gutted, day after day, after day, after day!

The only thing I'm happy about is the fact that I'm searching for value towards the top of the market (in specific races) and I feel I'm finding it quite well, just not getting that little bit of luck required to actually win (had this sort of run on the flat a couple of times - so annoying). Once I do, I think I can profit over jumps, even though I still have loads to learn and improve on.

Cheers for the support lads and hopefully we'll land a nice one soon. It's definitely overdue at this stage.

@Caveman, very unlucky. Pity I had him jinxed but very well done on getting the other trio up. It's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick!

x PyRo

Early one, back with reasoning in the morning.

3:00 Southwell - Douze Points - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (WillHill)

Caveman1

Pyro do you post all your tips on your twitter account? If so can you tell me your twitter name so I can follow you ?

x PyRo

I don't bother posting them on twitter usually (keeps the clowns away!), I just link people to my blog. Here's my account anyway - (click)

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More disappointment yesterday as Night In Milan became the third selection from my last four to finish in 2nd place. He was very strong in the market, eventually halving in price to go off as the 2/1 favourite but his jumping wasn't great at all and that's the main reason he lost. It also wasn't ideal to be held up on the wide outside on the field and overall he did quite well to get within half-a-length of the winner in the end. I can't complain though as it was a very good run for him on his first outing for a long time. He'll come on a fair bit for the experience I'd imagine and he'll be of interest again if he's a decent price.

-3.00pts on the day.

3:00 Southwell - Douze Points - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (WillHill)

Douze Points is hardly the most trustworthy character out there and for a horse who has plenty of ability on his day, it's quite disappointing that he has only managed to be victorious in 1 of his 34 career outings (placed a further 11 times). He's a real in-and-out sort of horse and although he ran no sort of race when tailed off over this 1 mile trip at Kempton last time out, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run a lot better here. He now runs on fibresand for the first time and it's a surface he shouldn't have a problem with, as his half-brother was a maiden winner around here and he goes on softer ground. The race should be run to suit him and he's dropped to a career-low handicap mark of 71, so if he's ever going to come in at a massive price it may be now. Overall, he'll either tail-off or run a cracker and I'll play small each-way stakes in the hope that it's the latter. It's very tough to be confident about anything in this race but the market leaders don't really appeal and it may pay to side with a larger priced runner. Pat Murphy's charge is the outsider of the field but he's too well-handicapped to ignore in a race like this, regardless of his recent form.

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4:00 Southwell - Punching - 2pts @ 4/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes, WillHill)

Punching is getting on in years now and he holds no secrets with the handicapper but he shaped very well when doing best of the trio of runners that raced up the stands' side at Yarmouth last time out and given that the race was run on soft ground over 5f, that effort can be marked up (he's not a 5f horse). Conor Dore, who trains this lively 7-year-old, now decides to step his charge back up to 6f and he now returns to the scene of his last 7 career wins, yet another positive. In 16 C&D runs, this fellow has never finished out of the first 4 and he managed to land the spoils no fewer than 6 times. He's now 4lbs lower than his last handicap win here, achieved in January of this year when scoring quite easily in a similar contest. All going well, Dore's charge should go very close under the guidance of Kirsty Milczarek (on board last time out) and 4/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

......................

Punching is getting on in years now and he holds no secrets with the handicapper but he shaped very well when doing best of the trio of runners that raced up the stands' side at Yarmouth last time out and given that the race was run on soft ground over 5f, that effort can be marked up (he's not a 5f horse). Conor Dore, who trains this lively 7-year-old, now decides to step his charge back up to 6f and he now returns to the scene of his last 7 career wins, yet another positive. In 16 C&D runs, this fellow has never finished out of the first 4 and he managed to land the spoils no fewer than 6 times. He's now 4lbs lower than his last handicap win here, achieved in January of this year when scoring quite easily in a similar contest. All going well, Dore's charge should go very close under the guidance of Kirsty Milczarek (on board last time out) and 4/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

I love selection logic like that, the very best of luck with that one (and the other one too of course)

x PyRo

Cheers RJ, although he's bound to come outside the top 4 now that I've said that! Always happens.

Edit : Douze Points out to 100/1 & 200 on Betfair. That pretty much says how he's going to run.

x PyRo

Well the only thing I got right there was that taking on the market leaders with an outsider was a good idea. Pity after about 5 strides I knew I was on the wrong one.

Douze Points should make it to the finishing line in the next couple of weeks.

markc91

Legend........That is all