PyRo's Horse Bets.

matt1958

Pyro Bateleur why is there such a price difference?? From 7/2 up to 6/1:eek:

x PyRo

matt1958 wrote: »

Pyro Bateleur why is there such a price difference?? From 7/2 up to 6/1:eek:

No idea to be honest, 10/3 favorite with Totesport. :eek:

The 6/1 with Sportingbet is not best odds guaranteed that's why I went with VC for my bet. Just incase he drifts but I reckon he'll be well backed before the off. No point taking chances though. :pac:

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

No idea to be honest, 10/3 favorite with Totesport. :eek:

The 6/1 with Sportingbet is not best odds guaranteed that's why I went with VC for my bet. Just incase he drifts but I reckon he'll be well backed before the off. No point taking chances though. :pac:

Cheers.. Couldn't believe those odds when i was checking it on oddschecker..

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

7:10 Windsor - Feeling Fragile - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I think there's each way value to be found in this race by opposing Fazbee who is extremely short in the betting @ 11/8 and not worth backing at that price. Feeling Fragile caught my eye on a few occasions and is worth another try here, She shaped decently on return this season coming 5th off a mark of 72 but flopped on next two occasions, Failing to settle last time when beaten by 6 lengths. Well in here at the weights due to age and sex allowances and that could put her well in the mix if she settles during the race. She's soundly bred and has the ability to pick up a few of these races, She's unexposed and open to improvement. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride and he's an exceptional jockey in my opinion, He doesn't often ride for Pay Eddery but he has had a few winners for him lately and is 5 from 23 overall, Giving them a 21% strike rate which is more then decent. Drawn high in stall 10, Lower numbers tend two have the best results here over 6f but the highest stalls usually do quite well too so it may not be much of a hindrance. Should have a good chance of placing and could well do even better if she settles. Looks a decent e/w proposition to me.

Opposed Fazbee correctly, Just picked the wrong one. Ran well for a long time, Keep an eye on her lads. She'll win soon.

Bateleur is on the drift now.

Edit : Bateleur no good at all, Ah well. Might do better tomorrow. Apologies.

Bank 200.22pts (+100.22pts)

x PyRo

3:30 Brighton - Rock Relief - 3pts

Backed this fellow last time out when he came 5 lengths behind Bajan pride over 9 furlongs. Steps back to 8 furlongs now which could improve him, Shaped as if finding nothing on alot of occasions, Has raced 8 times at various distances between 6f and 12f. Fitted with headgear now which may park some improvement as he seems less than interested during most of his races. I'm willing to forgive his last run as I don't think the ground was ideal for him, He was well supported that day and I expect the Prescott yard will be trying to get a win out of him very soon, They've been on fire of late and Mark Prescott has a 29% win rate at this course which is extremely impressive, 5 out of the last 8 horses he has sent here won their races and with Seb Sanders in the saddle that strike rate goes even higher, To a massive 39% (23 from 58). They're 3 out of 5 with 4+ year olds and will hopefully be making it 4 out of 6 tomorrow. Should handle the ground no problem and if the headgear works as planned then I think he has the beating of this terrible field and Prescott will be hoping to get a win out of him soon, He's extremely well bred and cost €200,000. Should definitely be winning this if running to ability. Medium sized be as he's still only a maiden so not worth the risk of a max bet. Hovering around 4/1 on the fair, Will be well backed tomorrow I'd say, Hopefully there's still a decent price come morning.

x PyRo

4:00 Brighton - Chinese Democracy - 2pts

Another shocking race but I think this one has a great chance, Now stepped back to 7f after having been raced over 1m last two times. That didn't suit her at all, Her form over roughly 7 furlongs reads 6-8-3-2-4 but she ran better on every occasion than that suggests. Hit odds on in running twice, Even money once and around 3/1 on the other two occasions. Finds it hard to win but after racing over further she could well be fitter now and in with a better chance after being dropped another 2lbs by the handicapper, Also has a very good 3lb claim from Ander Heffernan who is a more than capable jockey with a 20% strike rate at the course, Although only from 15 races but a decent start none the less. He has a 12% SR for the trainer Richard Evans. His horses haven't been running great of late but he had a winner yesterday and will hopefully be out for another today. She'll be running of 8st 2lbs which will hopefully help put her in the mix and it's a very weak race so she could well go in at a decent price. She cost $60,000, Is well bred to multiple winners from 5f to 8f and has lots of speed, Should be well able to pick up one of these races soon and break her maiden tag, Hopefully it's tomorrow. Around 11/1 on Betfair at the moment which would be lovely come morning. Has a good chance in my opinion.

x PyRo

5:00 Brighton - Magical Speedfit - 1pt

All three career wins have come here, Winning 3 from 9 attempts and only out of the top three 3 times. Has won here from 2lbs higher, Won on this mark and 1lb above last winning mark. Ran well last time out, Hit even money in running but had a poor lady apprentice on board which didn't help. Likes to come late from the back and could well get a race to suit with Multahab looking like the likely pace setter. Dane O'Neill takes the ride and he's a very good jockey, Knows this horse, Yet to win on him but had a number of creditable efforts and with this being the horses favorite track then we could see him gain his first win on the horse. He has a 10% SR at the course and he has been riding well with a three nice winners in the last couple of days, Only has two rides tomorrow. Currently around the 11/1 mark on Betfair but likely to be alot shorter come tomorrow, Hopefully it'll be around 8/1 or so. Has a decent chance in this pretty small field, Which he seems to do better in. Small win bet for me.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Magical Speedfit's a non-runner.

x PyRo

Thanks Baz!

x PyRo wrote: »

3:30 Brighton - Rock Relief - 3pts

Backed this fellow last time out when he came 5 lengths behind Bajan pride over 9 furlongs. Steps back to 8 furlongs now which could improve him, Shaped as if finding nothing on alot of occasions, Has raced 8 times at various distances between 6f and 12f. Fitted with headgear now which may park some improvement as he seems less than interested during most of his races. I'm willing to forgive his last run as I don't think the ground was ideal for him, He was well supported that day and I expect the Prescott yard will be trying to get a win out of him very soon, They've been on fire of late and Mark Prescott has a 29% win rate at this course which is extremely impressive, 5 out of the last 8 horses he has sent here won their races and with Seb Sanders in the saddle that strike rate goes even higher, To a massive 39% (23 from 58). They're 3 out of 5 with 4+ year olds and will hopefully be making it 4 out of 6 tomorrow. Should handle the ground no problem and if the headgear works as planned then I think he has the beating of this terrible field and Prescott will be hoping to get a win out of him soon, He's extremely well bred and cost €200,000. Should definitely be winning this if running to ability. Medium sized be as he's still only a maiden so not worth the risk of a max bet. Hovering around 4/1 on the fair, Will be well backed tomorrow I'd say, Hopefully there's still a decent price come morning.

4/1 taken this morning. 2/1 now.

x PyRo wrote: »

4:00 Brighton - Chinese Democracy - 2pts

Another shocking race but I think this one has a great chance, Now stepped back to 7f after having been raced over 1m last two times. That didn't suit her at all, Her form over roughly 7 furlongs reads 6-8-3-2-4 but she ran better on every occasion than that suggests. Hit odds on in running twice, Even money once and around 3/1 on the other two occasions. Finds it hard to win but after racing over further she could well be fitter now and in with a better chance after being dropped another 2lbs by the handicapper, Also has a very good 3lb claim from Ander Heffernan who is a more than capable jockey with a 20% strike rate at the course, Although only from 15 races but a decent start none the less. He has a 12% SR for the trainer Richard Evans. His horses haven't been running great of late but he had a winner yesterday and will hopefully be out for another today. She'll be running of 8st 2lbs which will hopefully help put her in the mix and it's a very weak race so she could well go in at a decent price. She cost $60,000, Is well bred to multiple winners from 5f to 8f and has lots of speed, Should be well able to pick up one of these races soon and break her maiden tag, Hopefully it's tomorrow. Around 11/1 on Betfair at the moment which would be lovely come morning. Has a good chance in my opinion.

12/1. Could of got 16's at one stage. 7's in places now.

x PyRo

Rock Relief owes me a fortune at this stage! Ran on far too late, Only a couple of lengths away but left it too late. I'll get my money back on him someday!

x PyRo

Big gamble on my next one, 12's into 5's. Really need a winner soon!

x PyRo

Just can't hit a winner. Barged about all over the place and couldn't get a run until far too late. I hate 2nd place.

matt1958

that was very unlucky there.. he was having too go all over the place to find a gap, got it but just too late.. was he being barged i thought he was looking for a gap..

x PyRo

Cheers Matt, Hopefully I'll get a bit of luck soon. Everything looked good after being so well backed, Got barged a few times, Ran all over the place, Couldn't get a run and still only beaten by just over a length. Would of definitely won with a clear run, No doubt about it. Pity I'm turning into a jinx!

matt1958

It was nearly a great gamble there.. it'll be one too look out for in future.. your way too hard on yourself man if its because other people are following your selections and not coming up i think they'll understand especially with races like that.. also if they have followed from the start and stuck too a staking plan their still well up.. i know i am:D and i've only followed a few of them..

dennymin

matt1958 wrote: »

It was nearly a great gamble there.. it'll be one too look out for in future.. your way too hard on yourself man if its because other people are following your selections and not coming up i think they'll understand especially with races like that.. also if they have followed from the start and stuck too a staking plan their still well up.. i know i am:D and i've only followed a few of them..

Well said

x PyRo

matt1958 wrote: »

It was nearly a great gamble there.. it'll be one too look out for in future.. your way too hard on yourself man if its because other people are following your selections and not coming up i think they'll understand especially with races like that.. also if they have followed from the start and stuck too a staking plan their still well up.. i know i am:D and i've only followed a few of them..

Could of been lovely, Just such a pity as anyone on would of got a nice few quid if they seen it in time for this morning. Plus it would of paid for the weekend for me. I can't stand losing! That's why I get worked up about these little poor runs. Plus I hate if people follow and lose money, I don't mind losing it myself but if I lose other people money I feel bad. Even if it's still up a nice little bit, Hopefully I can get a lucky run soon and win a couple of quid back tomorrow, Down about 20 points over the last 2 weeks. Not good!

Thanks for your comments as usual, Cheers Matt, And Denny too. Legends.

x PyRo

3:30 Catterick - The Hermitage - 2pts

I really like the look of the Johnston horse here, I think she's about to come back to winning ways now that she's stepped down to 6f again after having her last four starts over 7f and shaped as if that was 1f too far. She hasn't won since her second race when she was a 1/2 shot but has placed 4 times from 9 runs since. She has dropped 6lbs from her original handicap and is definitely in with a shout running off 74 again after an impressive third last time out in this grade but just failed to run on inside the final furlong, Would of won if she wasn't so one paced for the last furlong. Her 7f form reads 2-3-8-3, She hit odds on in running twice, Even money once, And on all occasions she faded in the final furlong. I think the step back in trip is ideal, And Joe Fanning is on board instead of French, Fanning is a far superior jockey IMO, He has a 16% strike rate for Johnston and is very capable at riding a horse who likes to be prominent, He also rode her on her first three starts, Winning once and coming second twice so he knows how to get a good tune out of her.

Mark Johnston has a 20% Strike rate at Catterick which is extremely impressive, His horses usually go very well around here and The Hermitage is one of two he's sending here today, It's a pretty quiet day for him as he usually has alot of horses out every day. She was an expensive purchase costing 85,000gns and related to 7 winners, Bred extremely well and has a lot of pace in the locker, Hopefully she'll show it tomorrow and get that elusive handicap win. Still lightly raced, Getting weight and sex allowances here which allow her to run off 9-1 one, Which is 7lbs lower than she should be had. She has plenty of scope for improvement and could prove better than this lot. She'll love this speedy ground and the draw shouldn't cause too much problems I'd say, Although based on stats it's not the best place to be. Although claims can be made for many in the race. Likely to be around 8/1 which would be a lovely price come the morning. She'll be well backed too I'd say.

Ruth Carr won this race last year and saddles Orpsie Boy who hasn't won for a long time but is now 20lbs lower than his last mark and I think he could prove to be the one to beat if running to 75% of his best, But he doesn't show that often nowadays so I'll go with the youngest horse with the most potential to beat the former classy animal.

x PyRo

6:20 Kempton - Special Quality - 2pts

This one really interests me, Won well in a maiden eased down near the end in a 5f sprint at Southwell back in May, Ran well last time out when having her first run on turf and she hit 1/2 In Running, Tried to make all but ran out of steam inside the final furlong. It was a very creditable effort and she'll come on for that, Lightly raced with only 4 runs to date and plenty of scope for improvement. Back on the All Weather now racing on a polytack surface for the second time, Ran well on it coming third from a poor draw and didn't get the chance to make all but it's very quick ground which should suit her better than the surface she won on at Southwell.

Frankie Dettori takes the ride, He was on her last time out and one thing I've noticed is he rarely wins when on board a horse for the first time but usually follows it up with a win if he's on board next time. Hopefully that will happen here today, He rides Kempton very well and has a 25% strike rate here, 3 of his last 4 rides here were winners last week. He doesn't often ride for the trainer, Cowell, But they are 7 from 25 giving them an impressive 28% strike rate and a £1 level stakes profit of £27 which is exceptional. Frankie is exceptional over 5f and an get the best out of a horse, He's also very good at dictating the pace from the front which will be crucial to getting her over the line, Although she does face competition for the lead with there being plenty of prominent runners in the field.

She is up 1lb for her 4th place at Sandown but that shouldn't be any bother to her, Back on the AW now, Boogie Waltzer is the model of consistency but looks high enough in the weights considering she's 7lbs higher than last AW win so I think she's well worth opposing, Even with Moore on board. Exceed Power is also of interest, Lots of speed and ability but 6lbs higher than last winning mark and upped in class, Poor claimer on board too so I think she can be opposed, Especially considering she's an awkward ride and not straightforward at all, Although blinkers will be on and could spark a better performance. I've no real interest in the rest of them so I'm opposing them all with Special Quality to step her game up and grab her second win, She's bred with plenty of speed, Dam is a Sister to a Group 2 winner, Lot's of potential improvement, Least exposed and looks to have the best chance. Especially if she can get her own way up front, Although that will be tough. Likely to be around 5/2 or so, Very good price considering her chances.

matt1958

Goodluck with the two today pyro, there is an early move on Hermitage would of liked the early price e/w.. Tho im liking Special Quality a bit more just a gut feeling

x PyRo

Cheers Matt, Done extra work last night.

Got 13/2 for The Hermitage. Missed the 8's. Halved now to 4's. :eek:

5/2 for Special Quality, Really feeling that this horse will win.

x PyRo

Should of went e/w on The Hermitage, Came 3rd. She'll win soon hopefully. Lovely ride by De Sousa on the winner. Here's hoping my only other bet will win.

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

Should of went e/w on The Hermitage, Came 3rd. She'll win soon hopefully. Lovely ride by De Sousa on the winner. Here's hoping my only other bet will win.

Unlucky, something too consider for future "big" picks.. I did a wee cheeky e/w double on the two of them and a medium single on Special Quality so hears hoping

matt1958

A bit of movement for him;).. Hopefully the horse gods are looking down on him:p:D

x PyRo

Her. Here's hoping man, We need a winner!

Edit : Actually it's a fella! :pac:

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

Her. Here's hoping man, We need a winner!

LOL sorry her..

x PyRo

Can't do anything right at the moment. Sorry man.

matt1958

. Its all on the footie too save me

x PyRo

I've got another bet on for the next at Kempton. Can't hit a winner though so she'll probably lose.

6:50 Kempton - Paco Belle - 2pts @ 5/1 (Victor Chandler)

From the Hannon yard, Owned by the same owners as Paco Boy. She shaped well on debut when 2 3/4 lengths away from the winner coming in 3rd place. Likely to improve from that and the step up to 7f will be a big plus hopefully, Shaped as if it would suit. She's now going to be making her AW debut and this track should suit her, The Hannon stable has won the last two runnings of this race and could well make it three out of three here, She'll come on for that last run no doubt and if taking to the surface here (As I suspect she will) she has to have a serious chance at a nice price.

Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have an 18% strike rate around here and Hannon's horses usually go well here. 4 out of 10 that they've sent here this month have won and two others placed. Hughes has a 15% strike rate at the course, Shows a tiny profit to level stakes and is very good at getting the most out of his rides and he could well play a big part in getting her over the line here. The Godolphin runner Najoum looks the one to beat, Extremely well bred but it's her debut and I don't like backing horses first time out so I feel she's opposable even with Dettori on board. Jetfire looked a bit one paced last time out over C&D and although she has an extra race under her belt and the positive booking of Ryan Moore I can't be having her at 4/1. The rest of them are guess work but I think it'll be between these three, Hopefully Paco Belle can do the job and take me out of this horrible run of form.

matt1958

The footie bets im waiting on one is sure too come in 4-1 and the other i cant find the results for it.. thats what i get for betting on feroe team:D.. i'll dabble with paco belle :D i know this one is a girl lol