PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

1:30 Newmarket - Mr Irons - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Powers)

I've got my doubts about alot of the horses at the head of the betting here and I feel the the Stoute horse is open to enough improvement to at least get a place here. As I usually do in such handicaps I've taken a look at the weights being carried tomorrow and due to the step up from a class 4 to a class 2 race this horse will be carrying 10lbs less than he did last time out, Carrying 8st 8lbs here which is ideal for his prominent style, He will have alot of competition for the prominent positions with at least 4 others in contention to want the lead early on but I've no doubt that with Ryan Moore on board he'll know exactly what to do, I always like him being on board prominent horses as he seems to get the best out of them most of the time and hopefully today will be the same scenario. Mr Irons is open to alot of improvement, He cost $425,000 and is very well related. This is a big step up in class but I feel the ability and speed is there and he looked and very game sort of horse last time out when being headed 1f out but stayed on well but was just outclassed in the end by a horse called Fontley who loves the course and won for the third time there, The softish ground wouldn't of been ideal for Mr Irons either.

The weight differential could well come in handy here, Along with his natural progression I expect to see him in with a good chance come the final furlong. The quicker ground and stiff track is likely to suit his style and with Moore on board I'm quietly confident there'll be enough progression to place at a minimum. Moore also had a couple of winners yesterday and is at the top of his game, His record at the July course with three year olds for Stoute is impressive also, They're 6 from 27 giving them and impressive 22% win rate. Mr Irons' maiden win back in October also impressed me, He didn't get it his own way at the head of affairs and sat in behind the pace setters and ran on late to win over 7f at Redcar, He beat the now 86 rated Tesslam who this season came second in a decent 7f handicap at this course only losing by 1/2 a length to a Hannon 3 year old Suited and Booted who won a decent handicap here on day one off a mark of 90. There are plenty of dangers in the race and lots of unexposed types so it's only one for small each way stakes but I certainly see Mr Irons as being overpriced at 7/1 and hopefully he proves my theory but it's a big step up in class.

x PyRo

Keeping an eye on Ecliptic in the 2:00, Form behind Libranno looks impressive but not sure whether to back it or not as I also think the extra furlong will suit Klammer who was 6l behind Strong Suit in the Coventry, Although I think Libranno will go on to be the better of those two. Will make a decision come tomorrow, But my head if fried from trying to solve that race. I'll lay the favorite though.

Moving along to my oul' favorite Heritage Handicaps.

2:35 Newmarket - Crown Choice - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Impressed me last time out when scoring in a similar race to this at Sandown. He was held up and produced over a furlong out and probably hit the front a bit early, Ended up running all over the place but still managed to hold on and win. Showed plenty of speed and grit that day and could of been excused had he lost due to Durcan putting him to the front far too early, It impressed me to say the least. Just had another look at the race and he had to come from near last to win, Had to go well to the outside to get a clean run through and showed a lovely turn of foot that day, Very lightly raced for a 5 year old with only 12 career starts so I figure he's open to more improvement and hopefully enough to win this race. Only up 5lbs for that but due to running against higher rated horses he's 5lbs less than last time which obviously adds to his claims for me. The quick ground will be no bother at all and he's drawn soundly, He'll need to get the gaps opening at the right time to win this but Jamie Spencer is on board and I feel he's a very good tactical rider although he has a tendency to mess things up but hopefully not tomorrow, He doesn't often ride for Walter Swinburn but when they have teamed up they've a good 17% strike rate and will hopefully be adding to that tomorrow. He's the only horse Swinburn sends out here tomorrow and hopefully he's tuned up for this one and Spencer gives a good ride. It's a trappy little race as all of these are but he looks like value at 11's and with a clear run I think he has fairly solid place claims, St Moritz looks the biggest danger, Could end up trying to set a fast pace and making all but with the likely quick tempo I think it could be set up for my selection to pounce late to win this, Hopefully if he gets produced to the front that it's not too early. Small each way again, Can't put much more on in such a tough race to call.

x PyRo

Last one, I'd give any amount of money to see this one win. Would be a lovely story.

3:10 Newmarket - Kinsale King - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365)

I really like this horse, Trained by the eccentric Carl O'Callaghan who is based in the US. I can't be having the O'Brien horse at odds of 13/8, He was brilliant last time out but Kinsale King was only two lengths away in Third on his first try on a straight line on Turf, Had to travel half the world to go to the race and that would of taken it's toll I'd imagine. Has stayed on for this race and I think they'll be pretty confident of another big race. He already won a big Group 1 race at the Dubai Carnival beating some class acts there and now having his second run on a different course than he's used to. I expect another big showing, Kieran Fallon on board again like last time and he'll know more about the horse now and hopefully get the best out of him. He doesn't have the turn of foot the O'Brien horse has but has a great cruising speed and if he keeps close to Starspangledbanner then I think he can put it up to him and reverse the form. The trainer says he's in excellent form at home and had a great run on the gallops recently and hopefully he'll be able to do the job, It would make a great story anyways! I think he's good value @ 9/1 and has the potential to improve enough on his last run to push Starspangledbanner even closer this time, And maybe even win it. Lots of others in with chances but these two are the most likely winners in my opinion, But I can't back such a short priced favorite in a Group 1 race. Should be an exciting race regardless of the result but I fancy the American horse to get the fairytale result for Mr. O'Callaghan.

Dravokivich

x PyRo wrote: »

1:30 Newmarket - Mr Irons - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Powers)

He's currently going @10 on PP.

x PyRo

Last night was early prices, They tend to go one way or the other come morning.

Edit : No idea what was wrong with Mr Irons, Half tempted to blame Moore for poor tactics but the horse didn't look good enough.

naughto

i went with formosina in the 2 o clock i have won on nice money on here before

x PyRo

naughto wrote: »

i went with formosina in the 2 o clock i have won on nice money on here before

Terrible price. I'm laying it.

naughto

i no very bad but with the two wins i had yesterday of u of course and with the football the last night my pp account has never looked so good

x PyRo

It's an awful race to put money on, Could well win but at those prices I have to lay it. Good luck man, But not too much here.

naughto

balls on that aw well sure ya win some ya loose many

edit

never see your post

Keeping an eye on Ecliptic in the 2:00, Form behind Libranno looks impressive but not sure whether to back it or not as I also think the extra furlong will suit Klammer who was 6l behind Strong Suit in the Coventry, Although I think Libranno will go on to be the better of those two. Will make a decision come tomorrow, But my head if fried from trying to solve that race. I'll lay the favorite though.

if i had i would have gone ew on Ecliptic.

keep up the good work

UnitedIrishman

Just by looking at the previous win of Formisina, wasn't going to back him. Was a very tight race with horses that could be anything and he didn't exactly run away with it.

Good pick with Ecliptic if ya were on it Pyro.

x PyRo

Wasn't on Ecliptic, Would of been raging if I was! He should of won it, Ran all over the place when he was up front, Lovely horse and will win some good races if they can sort out his quirks, Of which he has many. The favorite was beyond terrible, Handy lay.

x PyRo

Thought Crown Choice was coming to put down a big challenge at one stage, Then I don't know what happened! The one I though was the danger did it nicely, Good horse. Crown Choice dead heated for 4th, Small bit of place money for that but a 0.12pts loss. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick I suppose.

dennymin

x PyRo wrote: »

Thought Crown Choice was coming to put down a big challenge at one stage, Then I don't know what happened! The one I though was the danger did it nicely, Good horse. Crown Choice dead heated for 4th, Small bit of place money for that but a 0.12pts loss. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick I suppose.

It really looked like crown choice was going to nab it at the 2nd last furlong but then lost the bit of umpf right at the end, didn't expect the big weight to roll up like they did at the end great run in fairness!
,
have equiano backed in the next aswell, i do fancy them to sneak a place at least, hitting a fantastic run of form over the last 4, have your one backed aswell fella! not trying to give you advice or anything!!!;);)

x PyRo

Unlucky with Equiano man, Thought he was coming strong at one stage .Pity Kinsale King wasn't good enough, Races probably came too close together for him.

Small enough loss today, Hopefully there's a few that stand out more tomorrow.

Bank - 217.38pts (+117.38pts)

OutlawPete

Kinsale King just looked a tired horse.

Didn't expect that at all.

Maybe a little too much Guinness?

x PyRo

Just watched the Crown Choice race again and noticed that Palace Moon jumped right and Crown Choice got spooked and pulled back, Anyone else think he would of won if he hadn't of been hampered ?. I reckon he was coming strongest of all and would of taken alot of beating from there. One to keep backing until he wins again, Which I reckon will be soon.

x PyRo

1:45 Ascot - Rule Breaker - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)

Really impressed me when making all over this distance to win his maiden at Beverley by 6 lengths last month. Showed lots of speed and ability that day, Ran in a Handicap of a similar standard to this 2 weeks ago but didn't get his own way up front and was beaten by the other Johnston horse in the race, He ended up coming 4th but a combination of rock solid ground and a poor ride by Royston Ffrench put paid to his chances of winning I feel. Adrian Nicholls was on board the winner of that race and rode him splendidly, Leading from pillar to post after kicking off the bend and leaving the rest of them in his shadow. He's on board here today and I think he's likely to be up front on his own which he's clearly comfortable doing as shown in the maiden race and if Nicholls gives a similar ride to him as he did with Below Zero then I feel he could well run the rest of them into the ground. He's up against slightly better horses this time, Dropped 2lbs on his handicap mark and carrying 9lbs less overall. Could prove vital if he gets the chance to make all. I certainly feel at the current price of 16/1 that he's overpriced, I'd of thought he'd be half that price and looks the clear value of the race, Likely to improve again as he's lightly raced with only 4 career starts and should improve for having that first handicap run. He's well drawn in stall one and will like the quick ground. He's well bred and will possibly relish further but has shown lots of ability on all of his four runs this season and is open to alot of improvement, Certainly enough to win this race. The betting suggests he's the second string Johnston horse, With top weight Greyfriarschorista being a good bit shorter but he'll have to run exceptionally well to win off his mark of 103 and top weight so I feel the longer priced Johnston horse is a better betting proposition for sure. Johnston and Nicholls don't often team up but they've got a 33% strike rate this season and a number of other placing, He's a very capable jockey and extremely good from the front so hopefully he can have it his own way aboard Rule Breaker and providing he judges the pace well they could end up springing a surprise. Certainly seems overpriced to me and has solid enough place claims, And providing a couple of the horses at the top of the betting don't run to 100% I feel he could knick the race from the front. I can't see who else would be setting the pace, Possibly Thrust Control but he seems out of his depth here so I'll go with the Johnston horse to hopefully prove overpriced and get that little bit of improvement needed to win here.

x PyRo

4:40 Ascot - Archers Road - 2pts

Impressed me last time out when winning on first appearance for David Barron when beating Diman Waters in a valuable handicap at Chester in May. He was stepped down to 5f for that race and took advantage of the early speed by sitting in behind the two leaders who dueled for a long time and set it up perfectly for him to pounce in the final furlong. He looked extremely exposed with 16 runs as a two year old but the switch to David Barron's yard really showed his training ability to get more improvement out of him. Only up 1lb from that win and is open to more improvement now that Barron knows exactly how to work him. This is a tougher race for him but at these weights he's in with a good chance as he receives a 5lb weight allowance due to being a three year old horse racing against older horses. He's also well drawn and the quick ground should bring the best out of him. The two main dangers in my opinion are the other last time out winners, Monsieur Joe, Who is also a 3 year old receiving the weight allowance here but is drawn high and stepping up in class, He's very progressive having only had 9 career runs but has a 6lb penalty to live with and I feel he's opposable. The other danger to me is Present Alchemy from the Hughie Morrison yard, He won well last time out but that was in a class 4 race, He's stepped up to a class 2 here and I don't think he's as open to as much improvement as my selection and at a current price of 3/1 on the exchanges I couldn't be going near him. Prohibit ran very well in a hotter contest than this last time out when coming second beaten by a length at Windsor, He showed glimpses of his previous form, Although he only ever has won one Handicap race and that was off a mark of 12lbs lower and he's carrying 9st 8lbs which is enough for me to rule him out of my calculations.

Archers Road also had a great run at this course and distance last year when narrowly beaten by the classy Red Jazz for the Hills yard. He possibly should of won that race too but couldn't manage to hold on. Red Jazz has since won a Listed race off a mark of 107 and has placed in numerous races at Group Level including a close run against Rainfall who is an extremely talented horse. A repeat of that race for Archers Road could well see him tie up victory here. Jim Crowley takes the ride, Which is a rare occurrence as he has only ridden three times for David Barron before. Hopefully he's exactly what this horse needs and he's a more than capable rider, Although he has a poor record at this track but I fancy the horse will do the talking tomorrow. He certainly has the speed to win this race if it's run at a good gallop and the correct tactics are applied. Should be a very interesting race to watch with many speedballs in the race but I'm hoping the David Barron trained 3 year old can prevail here at forecast odds of around 6/1 which looks good, If there's much market support it'll be very significant and may convince me to go back in for more as Mr. Barron always backs his well fancied horses, This one should go well tomorrow and I'm quietly confident we'll be seeing a win out of him tomorrow.

x PyRo

3:05 York - Wigmore Hall - 2pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

Not an easy race to call by any means with claims easily made for many a runner in this race but the Michael Bell horse has caught my eye big time, His run at Ascot in the Hampton Court Stakes was extremely impressive and he was finishing like a train near the end and also struggled for room about 2 furlongs out, Still managed to get within half a length of the winner and with a bit further or a clear run I reckon he could of won it. Steps back from Listed company to a class two heritage handicap but is racing against the older horses and gets 11lbs in allowances, Also is due to go up 7lbs for his recent run at Ascot and another 3lbs off due to jockey Martin Lane's claim. 21lbs in weight differential if he was racing against horses his own age, I find that a massive positive for the horses chances here, Along with the fact that he is extremely progressive, Had alot of speed and ability and is likely to get a race to suit. He's the only horse sent out by Michael Bell and the only ride for Lane tomorrow, Bell has a good record around here and especially good in the higher quality races and I feel he could be adding another winner to his tally if his horse Wigmore Hall runs in anyway similar to his previous outing at Ascot. The quick ground is ideal for him and with a clear run I feel he's in with a serious shout. He has never been out of the top three over this trip having run four times this season at 10f winning once, On his only other handicap start which was also a fairly competitive heat. He should be there or thereabouts come the end and has lots of claims here, The track is likely to suit and as mentioned before if he gets a clear run I can't see him being stopped. I can't divulge into who I consider the dangers to be as there is so many of them, Hence why it's only a 2 point selection but his only two races have come in decent sized fields with 12 and 14 runners respectively. He'll have 19 horses to beat here which is no mean feat but the son of High Chaparal has enough scope for improvement to do the job and potentially do it well, He's probably still well ahead of the handicapper and likely to go on to contest alot hotter races than this. I fancy him big time but can't go in large due to it being such a tough race to call but with him carrying only 8st 2lbs he should be on the scene come the final furlong, Hopefully swooping late to bring hope the cash.

x PyRo

Couldn't find any more, Only 3 bets after 6 hours of work. :pac: Better pay off.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

3:05 York - Wigmore Hall - 2pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

I was very confident after reading your preview for Corsica and decided to put my balance on ew (only ew because I was afraid to lose the lot) and it came up trumps. I'm less confident after reading this one, but there seems to be a lot of people on him. I withdrew 2/3 of my balance after that win and I think I'm going to lump that on Wigmore Hall...ew again though. A pity he's gone in to 4/1 now, but hope he does the job or at least places.

x PyRo

L'prof wrote: »

I was very confident after reading your preview for Corsica and decided to put my balance on ew (only ew because I was afraid to lose the lot) and it came up trumps. I'm less confident after reading this one, but there seems to be a lot of people on him. I withdrew 2/3 of my balance after that win and I think I'm going to lump that on Wigmore Hall...ew again though. A pity he's gone in to 4/1 now, but hope he does the job or at least places.

Jesus man I don't know if it's worth lumping on, The market is extremely positive so far and it looks like he's out to do a job if the money is to be believed but I'd never risk more than 10% of my bank on a horse, Especially one in a 20 runner race. He could well win easily but it's not worth the risk. Best of luck whatever you do, Assuming you haven't put it on yet! I'm quietly confident though.

7/1 taken for Archers Road.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

Jesus man I don't know if it's worth lumping on, The market is extremely positive so far and it looks like he's out to do a job if the money is to be believed but I'd never risk more than 10% of my bank on a horse, Especially one in a 20 runner race. He could well win easily but it's not worth the risk. Best of luck whatever you do, Assuming you haven't put it on yet! I'm quietly confident though.

I have it backed, but don't fret I can afford to lose what I've staked.

x PyRo

L'prof wrote: »

I have it backed, but don't fret I can afford to lose what I've staked.

I hope to hell it wins then, A repeat of his Ascot run and you should be counting the money come 3:10, Hopefully.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

I hope to hell it wins then, A repeat of his Ascot run and you should be counting the money come 3:10, Hopefully.

I'm not overly confident given the amount of runners in this one, but here's hoping

x PyRo

Rule Breaker looked just out for the run, The other Johnston horse was well backed too. Hopefully the others go well.

whitts

x PyRo wrote: »

4:40 Ascot - Archers Road - 2pts

If there's much market support it'll be very significant and may convince me to go back in for more as Mr. Barron always backs his well fancied horses, This one should go well tomorrow and I'm quietly confident we'll be seeing a win out of him tomorrow.

pyro how do you find out these stats on market support, or off hand can u tell me how well he is getting backed?

x PyRo

whitts wrote: »

pyro how do you find out these stats on market support, or off hand can u tell me how well he is getting backed?

Just based on their odds changing. No move on him yet at all, Opened 7/1 and now 8/1 in places. If the money comes it may be near the off.

You can check out the market movers here...

http://www.attheraces.com/marketmovers/?ref=FastFixtures#

dennymin

x PyRo wrote: »

Rule Breaker looked just out for the run, The other Johnston horse was well backed too. Hopefully the others go well.

thats exactly the way it looked! if it was 5f he would have taken it though i reckon! i was worried when i saw them leading so well with 3 furlongs to go, and rightfully so!!