PyRo's Horse Bets.

dennymin

x PyRo wrote: »

She wasn't in a good position for her style though, If that horse isn't making all she's not going to win. Her cruising speed is what she has that's better than most other horses at this grade, She should of been running them into the ground, but instead she got run into the ground due to sitting just off the pace. The draw was the problem but the jockey should of been desperate to get her up top, she was going to lose regardless once he sat her off.

Still 14's with Sporting Bet, Blue Square cut the price just after I placed it. Clicky! It's not best odds though, I doubt she'll go off higher than 14/1 surely. I'm sticking with her until she wins, Looks well in at the weights here but she's so dodgy as she seems to hate getting whipped!

i remember that from the last time you had her backed ! the minute she got a bit of stick she started to slow down!!

best of luck with it anyway fella!

x PyRo

Poor day. -3pts

Bank - 220.38pts (+120.38pts)

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Lets get a win tomorrow Pyro, I need some money.:P

Haven't been on in a while, so haven't had a chance to read the log, ya been on a good streak lately?

x PyRo

Been on a good run alright Baz, Up about 40pts in the last week which is €400 to €10 per point, Although my stakes vary! All going well, Lot's of racing tomorrow so I'll see what I can find now.

ForzaKid

X PyRo Don't mean to Hi-jack your thread but for a 5 point bet, logic would say your going to put 50 on it but would you ever go into say the Hundreds or does it vary??


I am just being curious because if I see you have a 5 point bet I will Lump on big .

x PyRo

ForzaKid wrote: »

X PyRo Don't mean to Hi-jack your thread but for a 5 point bet, logic would say your going to put 50 on it but would you ever go into say the Hundreds or does it vary??


I am just being curious because if I see you have a 5 point bet I will Lump on big .

The 50 is only just to make it simple. If I put up a 5 pointer I've as much as I can get my hands on on it! Doesn't happen often though, and I've had a couple of them lose but it takes alot for me to go all in on one horse. I was in big on one today, got a proper tip for it but didn't post it in my threads as I don't like passing on peoples word. The horse dotted up altogether and won a nice sum from it.

Only ever bet what you can afford to lose, if someone puts up a 5pt selection don't go over and above what you're comfortable losing. It's not worth it. Wigmore Hall would of been a 5 point selection if I didn't bottle it! I was just afraid that he might find one to good in a 19 runner handicap but my write up really showed how much I fancied it and some noticed that, I was in large on Corsica too but couldn't bring myself to 5 point it either as it was a trappy race and I was afriad some people would put way too much on it and I get worried if people lose money from something I post up so only put 3 on it. Both won but it was safer to not put them up as max bets, plus I'm trying to lower the stakes of the thread.

What I'm trying to say is that the cautious approach is key to long term profit, something I've only realised lately.

Kod-box

what odds was the one today out of curiosity?

have to get back into the horses now the World Cup is over to fill the void in my life lol

x PyRo

Kod-box wrote: »

what odds was the one today out of curiosity?

have to get back into the horses now the World Cup is over to fill the void in my life lol

Opened 4's came in to 5/2 then drifted to 3/1 before the off. Was a serious price, The horse didn't even jump that well but I was told it was a cert by a lad with friends in good places. I would of loved to put it up here for everyone but I hate giving other peoples info to anyone even family!

Kod-box

Got to love them kind of tips

ah yeah i dont blame ya for keeping it hush hush, more chance of getting another tip from the same person and less annoyance from people who did lump on, on your word and the horse falls lol

x PyRo

Kod-box wrote: »

Got to love them kind of tips

ah yeah i dont blame ya for keeping it hush hush, more chance of getting another tip from the same person and less annoyance from people who did lump on, on your word and the horse falls lol

I love them too! This fellow gets great stuff though, it's really good to have a couple of friends that have good connections. I've feck all though, some people get so much constant word although it's harder to make head nor tail of them if you're getting 20 tips a day. I get one every few weeks all going well, not many lose either which is great! :pac:

If I ever gave someone a tip I'd rather they kept it hush hush though, I'd hate to lose people money. Although there is plenty of ups and downs with this thread but I just hope people realise they're not "tips" in any way, shape or form. They're opinions of a rambling fool. :pac:

x PyRo

2:30 Beverley - Jupiter Fidius - 1pts e/w

Shocking form of late but has to be respected in this company, Has a really good re-appearance run when coming 3rd, 1.5l behind Monterosso at Ripon and really should of won that race, hit 1.06 in running. Flopped badly on every run since but if able to get back to anywhere near that level he'll push this odds on favourite close here. 5lb claimer on board which will leave him well in at the weights carrying 8st 7lbs. Cono Zur is the one to beat for sure, hammered the field last time out when winning a weak seller by 9l but will be carrying 11lb more than last time out and 11lbs more than my selection. If my selection comes anywhere back to that Ripon form he stands a serious chance here, ground will suit as will the trip, not ideally drawn but if he can get out and either stay close to the pace setter like he did against Monterosso or even when he won his maiden then he should go close. Sitting at around 9/1 on the exchange at the moment and that would be a fine price come morning. Very tentative each way incase he blows up like he has previously but due to being down in grade into a claimer I think he should go well and place at least, risky though.

x PyRo

3:00 Beverley - Observatory Star - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365)

Now 1lb lower than last win (2008) and down to lowest mark in three years. He has been running well of late and signs that he could be due another win soon, rarely ever beaten by far and could be due to strike soon. Ran well here twice when just running out of steem in the latter stages off 3 and 5 pound higher marks. Graham Gibbons takes the ride and he's an exceptional jockey who is in great form and could help do the job here tomorrow. Trip and ground is ideal, trainer was in great form but hit a flat spot over the last few days and is due a winner and I feel this one could go close. First time visor could spark improvement and tongue tied too. Gibbons knows the horse well having been on board 6 times and won once, he was only out of the places twice also. Looks like value at the current price of 13/2 and I'd have him priced up at 9/2 at most considering his last couple of runs, plus the new headgear could do the trick. Not drawn ideally but should get a race run to suit and I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts come the end. Big overnight move on Dabbers Ridge who was 12's and is now 6/1 but the horse doesn't float my boat! Plus is no longer value at that price IMO. Trappy little race, small each way bet for me but could go well.

x PyRo

Pretty crap racing tomorrow, that's it for now at least. Nothing else stands out although Keys of Cyprus in the 7:50 interests me but I'll wait until tomorrow before I decide anything.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

2:30 Beverley - Jupiter Fidius - 1pts e/w

Shocking form of late but has to be respected in this company, Has a really good re-appearance run when coming 3rd, 1.5l behind Monterosso at Ripon and really should of won that race, hit 1.06 in running. Flopped badly on every run since but if able to get back to anywhere near that level he'll push this odds on favourite close here. 5lb claimer on board which will leave him well in at the weights carrying 8st 7lbs. Cono Zur is the one to beat for sure, hammered the field last time out when winning a weak seller by 9l but will be carrying 11lb more than last time out and 11lbs more than my selection. If my selection comes anywhere back to that Ripon form he stands a serious chance here, ground will suit as will the trip, not ideally drawn but if he can get out and either stay close to the pace setter like he did against Monterosso or even when he won his maiden then he should go close. Sitting at around 9/1 on the exchange at the moment and that would be a fine price come morning. Very tentative each way incase he blows up like he has previously but due to being down in grade into a claimer I think he should go well and place at least, risky though.

12/1 taken just there, Nearly woke up too late to get a bet on. Drifting big time though.

x PyRo

Yes get in.

Gracelessly Tom

You beauty!! Cheers for that one, certainly upped my PP balance by a nice bit!

x PyRo

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

You beauty!! Cheers for that one, certainly upped my PP balance by a nice bit!

Brilliant stuff Tom, it's nice to hit a winner.

Gracelessly Tom

x PyRo wrote: »

Brilliant stuff Tom, it's nice to hit a winner.

After the world cup I forgot what a winner felt like!

x PyRo

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

After the world cup I forgot what a winner felt like!

I know the feeling mate, went through a horror run with the horses for a couple of week and I've been on fire this last 5 days (bar yesterday!).

dennymin

great stuff pyro;)

kc66

x PyRo wrote: »

3:00 Beverley - Observatory Star - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365)

Now 1lb lower than last win (2008) and down to lowest mark in three years. He has been running well of late and signs that he could be due another win soon, rarely ever beaten by far and could be due to strike soon. Ran well here twice when just running out of steem in the latter stages off 3 and 5 pound higher marks. Graham Gibbons takes the ride and he's an exceptional jockey who is in great form and could help do the job here tomorrow. Trip and ground is ideal, trainer was in great form but hit a flat spot over the last few days and is due a winner and I feel this one could go close. First time visor could spark improvement and tongue tied too. Gibbons knows the horse well having been on board 6 times and won once, he was only out of the places twice also. Looks like value at the current price of 13/2 and I'd have him priced up at 9/2 at most considering his last couple of runs, plus the new headgear could do the trick. Not drawn ideally but should get a race run to suit and I'll be surprised if he's not there or thereabouts come the end. Big overnight move on Dabbers Ridge who was 12's and is now 6/1 but the horse doesn't float my boat! Plus is no longer value at that price IMO. Trappy little race, small each way bet for me but could go well.

Was 25/1 in running a couple of furlongs out but still managed 3rd.

x PyRo

Couldn't get closer to the front due to the draw, happy with the place though. Very good day for the bank! Keep an eye on it next time he's well drawn.

+15.70pts

Bank - 236.08pts (+136.08pts)

Gracelessly Tom

11/2 so made a very small bit of profit on the e/w side.

Cheers for the two today Pyro!

x PyRo

Any time Tom, great to get profit out of such terrible races. :pac:

matt1958

Great work Pyro.. Missed them all:( so hopefully the hot streak last a bit longer:p

x PyRo

Thanks Matt, That's how it goes man. It's easy to miss the winners unfortunately.

Stats for the last two weeks for anyone interested. Winners don't count as placed btw, So about a 50% SR for placed horses.

+40.26pts

Bets - 35
Wins - 7
Placed - 10
SR - 20%
Staked - 63.50pts
Returned - 103.76pts
ROI - 63.40%

dennymin

x PyRo wrote: »

Thanks Matt, That's how it goes man. It's easy to miss the winners unfortunately.

Stats for the last two weeks for anyone interested. Winners don't count as placed btw, So about a 50% SR for placed horses.

+40.26pts

Bets - 35
Wins - 7
Placed - 10
SR - 20%
Staked - 63.50pts
Returned - 103.76pts
ROI - 63.40%

great going in fairness, the change in the game plan has certainly paid off fella! well done

x PyRo

Thanks as always Denny, you're always very supportive.

That horror run has actually made me better at picking them, my strike rate has went down but the average price of my winners has shot up big time. Funny how when you hit a poor run you notice a few things, long may it continue.

dennymin

you had an awful run there for a while, i thought you were gonna pack in the thread altogether. there has been some change in your plan since the first day you started this log, and by the look of things you've got a bit of a following here aswell.

But your winnings over the last few weeks, show your betting selection and gambling strategy has become more refined since day 1. before you used to do 5,6, or 7 bets per day. Now when you hit, you hit very well indeed, but when you missed, it was an awful day.

The best move you made was getting out of those hopeless class 5 and 6 races, the were just a money guzzler. like you said it took a bit of a beating to improve your game but it was obviously worth it in the long run.

i'd say i can speak for everyone on this thread and say you've made us all more than few bob, and for that we probably owe you a pint or two.

Thanks again

x PyRo

dennymin wrote: »

you had an awful run there for a while, i thought you were gonna pack in the thread altogether. there has been some change in your plan since the first day you started this log, and by the look of things you've got a bit of a following here aswell.

But your winnings over the last few weeks, show your betting selection and gambling strategy has become more refined since day 1. before you used to do 5,6, or 7 bets per day. Now when you hit, you hit very well indeed, but when you missed, it was an awful day.

The best move you made was getting out of those hopeless class 5 and 6 races, the were just a money guzzler. like you said it took a bit of a beating to improve your game but it was obviously worth it in the long run.

i'd say i can speak for everyone on this thread and say you've made us all more than few bob, and for that we probably owe you a pint or two.

Thanks again

I'd never pack it in, although I'd be tempted if I thought I was losing people money. That would kill me tbh, can't stand losing money myself and it's even worse if I lost others money.

Yeah it's funny looking at the opening pages, I didn't really know much at all, it was just a fun log to keep track of my bets and see how I done. I used to be lazy and not sure what to say so I just used alot of Timeform's explanations for a horse, now I know exactly why I'm picking them. Once I quit picking 5 and 6 horses a day and just picked 2 or 3 most of the time I could cope with the losses but when they hit, they hit good. Now since I've quit with backing favourites unless I really really fancy them I'm limiting my losses by smaller stakes and maximizing the profit with longer odds and it's paying off so far and thank God!

Those class 5 and 6 are a disaster, although I will have a bet on them if I fancy something in it and there's poor racing (like yesterday) but more than likely they're not worth doing although todays was a claimer and a class 4, I find claimers very good for value and they're one type of race I'll be keeping my eye on, they usually have crap horses and one really short priced favourite but the e/w value is there to be found, just like with todays pick who was severely overpriced considering his handicap mark and also had 11lbs less to carry than the fav. It's very obvious in some races too, plus the horse had cheekpieces on for the second time, he didn't like them first time out but got used to them and they sparked the extra ability I knew he had somewhere, although I'm still adamant he was a risky proposition but I hate giving up on horses I back previously. :pac:

Long may the good run continue and to anyone who looks here I really do appreciate it and any comments that you make. I'm thrilled with the amounts of looks the thread gets and that's more than enough motivation to keep doing my best to get more winners. Plus this thread has made me a small fortune, I've went from an atrocious gambler who just blew money on things I hadn't a clue about to turning into an extremely selective and profitable gambler now. It has been an extremely fun 7 months of having this thread and hopefully it's still going over the foreseeable future and continues to be profitable.

Thanks to all the lads (and there is some lassies ) that looked at the thread and listened to me waffle on for ages about nothing, like with this post. :pac: It has been an experience to say the least.

Target by the end of August is to reach treble the starting bank, which is 300pts.