PyRo's Horse Bets.

Crowie13

Pity I didn't find this thread earlier than y-day. Missed ur selections today as started work late
Well done though a win and a place is pretty darn good from 2 selections.

Will be watching more closely and hoping for many more winners

Anymore views on Keys of Cyprus tonight?

x PyRo

Crowie13 wrote: »

Pity I didn't find this thread earlier than y-day. Missed ur selections today as started work late
Well done though a win and a place is pretty darn good from 2 selections.

Will be watching more closely and hoping for many more winners

Anymore views on Keys of Cyprus tonight?

Thanks Crowie, very much appreciated. Hopefully there's more to come.

I think he's better avoided now, only 5 runners in the race and it looks a hot enough contest. He only ran once at the track but won that race. Could well win but the Johnston horse looks solid and Keys Of Cyprus drifted from 8's to 12's. Was hoping there'd be some sort of market support but it doesn't look likely at the moment, better left alone I'd say.

UnitedIrishman

To be honest Pyro, you really shouldn't be worried about whether people lose money on the back of what you put up here. After all, it's YOUR betting log - it's not betting advice as such. It's horses you fancy so it's up to someone whether they wish to follow your lead.

And on that note, someone would have to be pretty silly to blindly follow another persons tips and lump on. I've backed 2-3 in this thread out of maybe 6-7 I've seen you put up and thats because I've had a look at the races and not fancied them because of the fields or because of the class (and been proven wrong at times - look at Whigmore Hall!).

So all in all what I'm saying is that if they lose, they lose - it's not your fault. It's a fool that follows blindly.

x PyRo

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

To be honest Pyro, you really shouldn't be worried about whether people lose money on the back of what you put up here. After all, it's YOUR betting log - it's not betting advice as such. It's horses you fancy so it's up to someone whether they wish to follow your lead.

And on that note, someone would have to be pretty silly to blindly follow another persons tips and lump on. I've backed 2-3 in this thread out of maybe 6-7 I've seen you put up and thats because I've had a look at the races and not fancied them because of the fields or because of the class (and been proven wrong at times - look at Whigmore Hall!).

So all in all what I'm saying is that if they lose, they lose - it's not your fault. It's a fool that follows blindly.

I totally understand every point you've made, well put, but people do follow blind. I used to but now I only value my own opinion and listen to my instincts, I wouldn't even touch anything those "tipsters" Taylor and Segal put up but thousands upon thousands value their word as gospel which is a joke. I like putting my stuff up here so people can read and make what they want of it, but I'll still feel bad if people had money on it and it loses. Even though it's a log people always value other peoples choices very highly for some reason.

It is a fool that follows blindly, but we were all there at one stage, I followed people before and lost money, I followed others and won money, that's how she goes. :pac: At the end of the day I do this for my own benefit, to make money and if someone goes along with it and wins a few quid then I'm delighted, if they go along with it and lose money then it disappoints me but also motivates me to do even better, as I have done since I had a terrible run of two weeks of pure crap.

You're totally right though in everything you say but I still feel bad if the horses lose and someone has lost money, even a euro.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

I think he's better avoided now, only 5 runners in the race and it looks a hot enough contest. He only ran once at the track but won that race. Could well win but the Johnston horse looks solid and Keys Of Cyprus drifted from 8's to 12's. Was hoping there'd be some sort of market support but it doesn't look likely at the moment, better left alone I'd say.

2nd @ 8/1. Ran well, one to keep an eye on.

x PyRo

Been messing around with the stats again.

Since I got over my horror streak one week ago here is the stats.

+51.98pts

Bets - 19
Wins - 5
Placed - 5
SR - 26.31%
Staked - 32.5pts
Returned - 84.48pts
ROI - 160%

whitts

cheers pyro e/w double paid off nicely..
keep it up

x PyRo

whitts wrote: »

cheers pyro e/w double paid off nicely..
keep it up

Good stuff mate, hope you did a single on the other one. :pac:

whitts

no i didnt have the balls! lol and was in work so didn have any axcess to net...

x PyRo

I'm so tempted to put my house on Cloudy City in the first at Lingfield! Something's telling me to avoid it so I'm going to wait until 2pm to decide. Looks nailed on and is around 4/5 on the exchange, I though he'd be around 1/2. Decisions, decisions!

Got a previous one out tomorrow in the 3:00 Lingfield

Here's what I said before..

x PyRo wrote: »

3:30 Bath - Sheila's Bond - 1pt e/w

Impressed with her last two runs and the 4 length defeat to Captain John Nixon could prove to be the best form in the race. First time running away from the polytrack and if taking to the turf I feel she has a decent chance. Stepping back to a more suitable distance of 1m2f after running over 2f extra last time out. Decent 7lb claimer on board which will leave her carrying bottom weight and she's sure to have a decent chance running off that. Place claims at a minimum and around 8/1 on the exchanges at the minute, Would be a nice price come morning but anything around 6/1 would be acceptable. One of only two out for the trainer tomorrow, Both boarded by this rider who has an 18% SR for the trainer, Well drawn, Looks a speedy enough sort and the quick conditions may well suit her style. Not without a chance here, Forty Thirty looks the danger, Price is way too short considering the near one year lay off. Recent winner Under Fire would also be of interest but may be hindered with the weight. All the rest look exposed and find it tough to be involved so I'll go with the likely third favorite to beat them all.

She ran well for a long way on her Turf debut but couldn't get a clear run and finished 3.5l away in 4th. Nearly nabbed 3rd late on. Sitting around 9.5/1 on Betfair at the moment and it would be a great price come morning, only 7 in the field at the moment which will make it easier for her to get a clear run and despite her being one of the most exposed in the field she has alot of ability, was very progressive on the AW and can prove the same here on turf. The ground will be a bit slower than it was last time out and that will suit her no bothers at all, the favourite, Explorator, is extremely opposable at likely prices of below even money, up 6lbs for his last win and carrying top weight here too. Can't be having him at those crazy prices although he'll be tough to beat but I feel my selection can do it.

3:00 Lingfield - Shelia's Bond - 1pt

x PyRo

Trying my hand at the jumps tomorrow using the same selection policy (weight wise) as how I choose the flat horses, got one so far that looks to have very solid claims.

2:40 Uttoxeter - Hoar Frost - 2pts

Looks very well in at the weights for this one, carries 13lbs less than she did last time out in a handicap that he won nicely in when making all over C&D and never really looking in danger. He has improve big time since AP McCoy has taken to riding him and making him a prominent races, came second over C&D in a mares Handicap and could of won that day, finished 23l clear of the rest. Won well last time off top weight when similar prominent tactics were used and that really sparked improvement and if the same tactics are used here then she can go on to get her second hurdle victory. The Jim Best yard is in flying form and with AP on board I expect they're out to do the business today, they have a 41% strike rate when they team up which is highly impressive and McCoy has been in flying form of late and rides the course very well with 5 out of his last 7 rides here gaining victory. Best sends two here today with the other being Clifden Boy, also saddled by McCoy and won well on last two starts. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a double on the card tomorrow but I'll just stick with this one. Likely to be around 2/1 which she is currently on the exchange, that'd be a grand price. Should go well but only having small enough bet on it due to the jumps not being my forte!

NaiveMelodies

Ah was away yesterday so missed out on your picks, devo!!!

Gonna go with Sheila's Bond and have another horse in the first race at uttoexeter, Bedarra Boy.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

She ran well for a long way on her Turf debut but couldn't get a clear run and finished 3.5l away in 4th. Nearly nabbed 3rd late on. Sitting around 9.5/1 on Betfair at the moment and it would be a great price come morning, only 7 in the field at the moment which will make it easier for her to get a clear run and despite her being one of the most exposed in the field she has alot of ability, was very progressive on the AW and can prove the same here on turf. The ground will be a bit slower than it was last time out and that will suit her no bothers at all, the favourite, Explorator, is extremely opposable at likely prices of below even money, up 6lbs for his last win and carrying top weight here too. Can't be having him at those crazy prices although he'll be tough to beat but I feel my selection can do it.

3:00 Lingfield - Shelia's Bond - 1pt

9/1 taken with Stan James.

x PyRo wrote: »

Trying my hand at the jumps tomorrow using the same selection policy (weight wise) as how I choose the flat horses, got one so far that looks to have very solid claims.

2:40 Uttoxeter - Hoar Frost - 2pts

Looks very well in at the weights for this one, carries 13lbs less than she did last time out in a handicap that he won nicely in when making all over C&D and never really looking in danger. He has improve big time since AP McCoy has taken to riding him and making him a prominent races, came second over C&D in a mares Handicap and could of won that day, finished 23l clear of the rest. Won well last time off top weight when similar prominent tactics were used and that really sparked improvement and if the same tactics are used here then she can go on to get her second hurdle victory. The Jim Best yard is in flying form and with AP on board I expect they're out to do the business today, they have a 41% strike rate when they team up which is highly impressive and McCoy has been in flying form of late and rides the course very well with 5 out of his last 7 rides here gaining victory. Best sends two here today with the other being Clifden Boy, also saddled by McCoy and won well on last two starts. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a double on the card tomorrow but I'll just stick with this one. Likely to be around 2/1 which she is currently on the exchange, that'd be a grand price. Should go well but only having small enough bet on it due to the jumps not being my forte!

11/8 taken with Powers.

No bet on Cloudy City.

x PyRo

Thank God I listened to my instinct with Cloudy City! He got destroyed! :eek:

Edit : No more jumps racing for me!

x PyRo

Shelia's Bond ran really well as usual but just not good enough, coming 2nd. She'll win soon.

The other one was poor, last time I go near horses over jumps until the good stuff is back.

Bank - 233.08pts (+133.08pts)

x PyRo

Having one more bet on what looks a trappy race, tentative bet on the Johnston horse.

8:20 Kempton - Licence To Till - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Well bred speedy colt who had a good two year old campaign where he showed lots of speed and potential when sprinting, came back this year racing on turf and wasn't impressive at all but now switched back to polytrack on which he has raced twice, coming 1st and 3rd in a decent handicap. He won his maiden routing the field by 8 lengths over 7f at Lingfield when making all to win easily, hasn't tried those tactics since but with only one other front runner (Cobo Bay) in this race I feel he could be trying to press him for the lead, drawn high which is ideal here and with his return to polytrack we could see more improvement. Certainly looks overpriced to me, and is in receipt of an 11lb allowance due to being a 3 year old. Joe Fanning takes the ride for Mark Johnston and both of them have been in great form of late, banging in winners left, right and center. Fanning is a very capable jockey with prominent horses especially and has won on this horse before, he may be able to get that extra bit of improvement needed. Stepped up to 1m and should stay, has that perfect blend of speed and stamina and may eventually go on to be a better horse than this, dropped 5lbs since his only handicap race on the AW and it and the combination of the weight allowance could see him run a good race. It's a very tough one to call but Johnston's horses usually go well around here and he has a 16% strike rate. Small, tentative each way bet for me but certainly look overpriced, the price is due to his turf form this season I'd imagine but he doesn't seem to settle on turf at all and looks the type to do well on AW surfaces, he has some decent form behind a Group performer as a 2 year old also and carrying bottom weight here could help put him in the mix. It's a tough task but at the odds he's worth a go.

d-gal

Ilie Nastase in the 8.50 kempton?
Was 14s now as low as 9/2! Good AW horse

x PyRo

No idea about that other one I'm afraid D, wouldn't get on after missing the value.

x PyRo wrote: »

Having one more bet on what looks a trappy race, tentative bet on the Johnston horse.

8:20 Kempton - Licence To Till - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

3rd. Very happy with his run.

+3pts to cancel out todays loss.

Bank - 236.08pts (+136.08pts)

x PyRo

2:10 Leicester - Mr Macattack - 1pt e/w

Better than result last time out suggests, ended up coming 10th but was only 4l away and was coming with a big charge near the end but had struggled out the back for the first couple of furlongs and that took it out of him I'd imagine. The ground was possibly too fast for him also and with potential rain overnight he may have ideal conditions, drawn soundly in stall 7 and with Zero Money being in the race I think he'll get a good fast pace to suit. Only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark where he won over this distance at Wolverhampton. Still lightly raced having only had 11 career starts and he's a 5 year old. Potentially more improvement to come and will be wearing a first time visor tomorrow which could spark that improvement, doesn't look interested at times during a race and this may help all click into place. The stable is bang out of form and that's likely to be included in his price, sitting at around 17/2 on the exchange at the moment but I'd be hoping for a bit more than that but it's still decent e/w value. Only had three runs for the yard so far so hopefully they've done their work with him and notice that the visor could bring a bit more out of him, he has the speed and ability but he just needs to race with a bit more interest. With Zero Money or even Call To Arms setting a good pace I feel he'll have a race run to suit his style of coming with a late run, he has far more ability than he has shown and hopefully tomorrow will be the day it all comes together. I'd have my doubts about many of the field so I'm hoping he'll be in the top three at least and hopefully will end up winning it, certainly looks overpriced to me and is the only horse sent here by the stable. Small each way bet in what looks a trappy contest but not beyond him at all.

x PyRo

8:40 Doncaster - Norwegian Dancer - 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (PaddyPowers)

I think this one looks like a very solid each way bet, 1lb below last winning mark and has been running very consistently this seasoning having had three runs and coming 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Gibbons gets the leg up and he has been on board 4 times with the form reading 3-4-2-3. He's a jockey who I like when he's coming off the pace and that's what he'll have to do here, he knows exactly what to do with this horse and will hopefully be able to help the horse gain his first win since this week last year. The ground and trip are ideal and he ran well at the course before. He steps down in grade for this contest and has room for more improvement to take this race, he just needs luck in running and with a clear run I can't see him not being placed. Trainer in good form of late and especially when teaming up with Gibbons, who himself has been in flying form over the last month or so, he's ideal for the horse and knows exactly what to do. It looks a very winnable race for my selection, That'll Do Nicely is at the head of affairs in the market but he's taking a step up in class and despite being in great form of late it will take a huge run for it to win running off a career high mark and against a better type of horses than he usually runs against, he's a definite lay and possibly even a place lay even with Hanagan on board who's in great form. Jeer is also interesting at the weights but weakened rapidly last time out and even with Fallon on board I couldn't be having him. There are a couple of others with decent claims but I fancy my selection to go well and place at a minimum, looks overpriced at odds of 7/1 and I'd of thought he'd be closer to 4/1 if it wasn't priced up already. Medium sized each way bet for me and hopefully he justifies it.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

2:10 Leicester - Mr Macattack - 1pt e/w

Got 6/1 in the local.

rabsmith2

Going on holiday next mon, need a rise badly, which 1 should i back

x PyRo

rabsmith2 wrote: »

Going on holiday next mon, need a rise badly, which 1 should i back

Neither. Don't go gambling your holiday money just to rise it!

rabsmith2

Zebrano for forecast?

x PyRo

Yeah, then stick it all on red.

rabsmith2

sense is kicking in, i'll leave alone.

x PyRo

rabsmith2 wrote: »

sense is kicking in, i'll leave alone.

No point risking it on a horse man.

Only 4th for Mr. Macattack. Keeping with him as he'll go closer soon I'd say.

naughto

x PyRo wrote: »

Got 6/1 in the local.

he was piss poor 2day i ment Mr. Macattack. not you xpryo

x PyRo

naughto wrote: »

he was piss poor 2day

Thanks for that insightful contribution, cheers.

naughto

did not mean to offend ya xpyro as i have goten some very gud tips of ya