PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

The markets are crazy in these races. Massinimoss was 25/1, as low as 9/2 now. Craaaazy.

scopper

Money is getting behind Massinimoss...

scopper

Also money getting behind some of the loooong odds for anyone wanting a bash.

x PyRo

Ah well, place money will do. Thought he was going to do it.

+7.80 overall today with a return on every horse.

Bank - 272.19pts (+172.19pts)

argosy2006

Cebuano 33-1 on bf just to place ,

UrbanSea

Don't think the stable was the most pleased with the ride on Tistobesure,who wasn't meant to lead apparently.

x PyRo

Yeah I even flagged up in my reasoning who he improved when being patiently ridden, was surprised to see him leading but that happens unfortunately. Robbie Mac owes me little after the massive winner at Galway though.

x PyRo

2:30 Brighton - Frankish Dynasty - 1pt

Well bred 2 year old who is related to many winners. Ran well last time out when a 2length 5th at Bath, pulled awfully hard that day and when he started to settle in the final furlong he was gaining fast. Should come on for that and has had a month off since which should see him fresher for this after racing 4 times in a month. Decent form around too when on debut he beat Cadeaux Pearl by a neck on debut, the Hannon horse has since went on to win a Class 4 Maiden at Sandown by 10 lengths. My selection was also 8 lengths off Neebras, who came second in a Group 2 to Libranno from the Hannon yard, who has since went on to win again in a competitive Group 2 race. He's slowly improving but with the inform Tom Queally on board he'll have an even better chance, he should be able to get settled in mid division from a plum draw in stall 3 and hopefully make his move late on. The ground should be ideal for him and if he gets a truly run race he stands a good chance. Likely to be the guts of 3/1>7/2 and that looks a good price to me, should go well but as with most two year olds I back it's only a small win bet for me.

x PyRo

3:00 Brighton - Oak Leaves - .5pts e/w

An awful race to try and figure out but I want one long shot for tomorrow and this one catches the eye, still a maiden after 8 runs, best effort came over this distance at Chepstow when just beaten by a nose after running well for a long way. Appears to have been a flash in the pan but I feel the horse has enough ability to win a race like this if running to the ability that's in there somewhere. She has had 3 weeks off also which should bring some more life into her after a couple of poor performances and the trip and ground will be no problem, still lightly raced with only 8 starts and open to more improvement. Well in at the weights here, getting an 11lb allowance for age & sex and has an excellent 5lb claimer on board leaving her only carrying 7st 13lbs which should increase her chances in this stiff stamina test around Brighton.

The jockey, John Fahy, has been in great form of late, banging in 5 winners in the last 10 days and is now starting to get lots of rides for various stables, he's great value for his 5lbs claim and if he can get this one travelling well throughout he should stand a good chance of adding to his impressive CV. Has been ridden in numerous different way but that close 2nd at Chepstow came when she chased the leaders and was ridden to lead inside the final two furlongs, a repeat of those tactics in what seems to be a race with only one true front runner should see her get into the placings at a minimum. The trainers form isn't great at the moment and his record around here is nothing good at all but he rarely visits Brighton and hopefully sees it as an ideal track for this horse to get off the mark, she should be suited by the stiff track and if getting a bit of luck she can go close at likely big odds of around 16/1 or so. Worth a small each way at those prices.

x PyRo

Biggest bet since Workforce's flop. Really fancy this one.

3:30 Brighton - Licence To Till - 2pts e/w @ 9/2 (Bet365)

From the Mark Johnston yard, looks like one of his typical horses who win easily in a maiden then go into handicap company and run poorly until they go for a decent race and start to get good again. After he won his maiden by 8 lengths he went into a handicap off a mark of 83, ran poorly 4 races in a row, dropped to 78 and came third, was dropped another pound for that race and came second in a good race at Epsom when being collared late on, hit 1/20 in running and should of won but didn't handle the tough Epsom track that well and I reckon that cost him, although Brighton is an extremely tough course too I reckon he'll come on for that experience and prove his worth. Runs here off that mark again and looks to have a very solid chance. Kieran Fallon is on board for the first time and he should be an ideal ride for him. It's one of only two rides for him at Brighton before heading off for Kempton, he hasn't ridden here for 6 years so it's interesting to see him make the trip here.

Johnston is in flying form over the last few weeks with winners left right and center and he won this race last year with My Gacho from a similar draw so hopefully he'll know what tactics to use to get this fellow to follow in his footsteps. He doesn't often venture to Brighton but has an impressive 23% strike rate and is usually amongst the winners enclosure when he comes here. It's only the second time he has horses here all year and this is the only one he sends out here. License To Till will be suited by the fast tempo likely to be set in this race and if he handles the track he has a seriously good chance, the ground should be ideal and the draw will be no hindrance at all. I expect him to win, but I'm going each way just to be safe at generous odds, wouldn't be surprised if he went off 5/2>3/1 which would more so reflect his chances here. All roads point to Johnston winning this race again and if he doesn't I'll be surprised.

OneForTheTeam

Hey x pyro do you know when pp put up the odds, just says sp.

x PyRo

They're not doing early prices on these races so that's why, just wait until the morning if you're backing anything and take a price then. SP is a cod and will lose you money if your horse is well backed.

coughlan08

my bet365 account is dry,what time will prices be on in the morning,
thanks

x PyRo

I think Powers are 10am, possibly 9:30 but I'm not 100% sure, was looking for it there and couldn't find it. Hopefully the fecker will win or I'll be drowning my sorrows in a bottle of vodka tomorrow night!

x PyRo

That's enough for the moment, might have one tomorrow evening all going well.

coughlan08

coughlan08 wrote: »

my bet365 account is dry,what time will prices be on in the morning,
thanks

only got up now,

took 4-1.best price on pp..

there seems to be money coming for moores horse,Kavachi,,should i be worrying..:o

scopper

coughlan08 wrote: »

only got up now,

took 4-1.best price on pp..

there seems to be money coming for moores horse,Kavachi,,should i be worrying..:o

There is a decent price on Kavachi for a horse that might just pull if off, but I wouldn't be worry hugely unless we hear some big news explaining the reason (ain't heard much yet).

UnitedIrishman

scopper wrote: »

There is a decent price on Kavachi for a horse that might just pull if off, but I wouldn't be worry hugely unless we hear some big news explaining the reason (ain't heard much yet).

To be honest, looking at the form Kavachi has I can't see how he is favourite @ 3/1. He's only ran at 7f once before (two years ago) and finished last and he hasn't even placed in 11 runs since that.

I'd imagine people are just looking at the trainer and jockey and backing him.

Torn between Licence to Till and course specialist Ocean Countess at the minute though. It's a step up in class for the latter but as Pyro mentioned Brighton is a tough course for some horses.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

2:30 Brighton - Frankish Dynasty - 1pt

5/1 with Bet365.

x PyRo wrote:

3:00 Brighton - Oak Leaves - .5pts e/w

12/1 with Bet365 too.

Not happy with that price but it'll do.

scopper

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

To be honest, looking at the form Kavachi has I can't see how he is favourite @ 3/1. He's only ran at 7f once before (two years ago) and finished last and he hasn't even placed in 11 runs since that.

Yep. Form is woeful. As far as I can work out Pyro makes his decisions based on weight and track (or conditions) so if you are going by trainers and jockeys it is prolly best not to follow his bets.

I'd imagine people are just looking at the trainer and jockey and backing him.

I suspect so too.

Torn between Licence to Till and course specialist Ocean Countess at the minute though. It's a step up in class for the latter but as Pyro mentioned Brighton is a tough course for some horses.

Ocean Countess looks good value. I'm sticking with Licence to Till on this one. OC seems to have entered a kind of consistent average form that I don't think will be broken here but a sound value bet for sure based on the course.

UrbanSea

Have to disagree with the points ye made there about why he is favourite. Ya he doesn't go well over 7 only running over it twice,but look at the races it's been running in,much hotter handicaps than this.

x PyRo

This is a 1mile race, not 7f.

skeleton_boy

Kavachi N/R. Hefty R4 then.

x PyRo

Fuck.

scopper

Bah!

UrbanSea

I got done for a rule 4 the other day when a 10/11 shot was pulled out. Even though mine was 9/1 and each way,I still lost money.

plonk

Thank feck fallon was riding him.

skeleton_boy

Fallon you beauty!

EDIT: cock dead heat

x PyRo

Don't think he won it.

scopper

Dead heat