PyRo's Horse Bets.

Kod-box

take a dead heat i was certain he was bet, although i done it on Betfair

Aidenkkk's came 3rd though, had €20 on that to place at 7.6

nice one Pyro, think thats the first time ive backed your tip and its won, well DH'd anyway lol

scopper

25% Rule 4 deduction. Covers me for the day at least but really dislike Rule 4!

scopper

Kod-box wrote: »

Aidenkkk's came 3rd though, had €20 on that to place at 7.6

l

I bet on that too but outright to win. Didn't think it'd get anywhere, but oh well. One to watch anyway.

Vurnon San Benito

Dead-heat, but profit all the same.

Good man Pyro, inches from a win though

Kod-box

Fallons was trading at 2/1 after the race to win it on betfair, was wondering why the commentator on ATR had him called the winner more or less lol.

x PyRo

Quite pissed off with that, R4 and a dead heat for fuck sake!

+2.06pts

Bank - 274.25pts (+174.25pts)

Kod-box

Do bookies not pay full on both horses?

i thought it was just exchanges that split the payout?

x PyRo

Half stake, full odds. I would of been sorted for a while if he won without the R4 and DH, not so much so now. Ah well, what can one do.

Oak Leaves hit 1.80 in running too, she'll come in soon. Keep an eye on her lads.

Kod-box

ah balls, was sure bookies paid the 2 as winners on DH's, maybe its just in some shops then.

UnitedIrishman

Nice one Pyro, opted for Licence to Till in the end. Got 3's after Kavachi was pulled.

My choice lost out on a neck for 3rd but do I care? Not a jot!

x PyRo

Good stuff mate. Pity it DH'd but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. :pac:

x PyRo

3:30 Brighton - Ethics Girl - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Very interested in this one and I think she has an excellent chance of gaining her first win since this time last year, just 5lbs above that mark but she has been improving but rarely gets luck in running, partly due to some of the jockeys she has had on board. That shouldn't happen now that George Baker is up today. She has only had three runs since coming back after a 6 month break and has run respectably on all three occasions, it took her three runs before she won last season and also the likely quick ground at Brighton tomorrow will be ideal for her. Her GF form reads; 1-2-2 and with George Baker on board I feel she could be adding another '1' to that form if the ground stays the same.

Her trainer, John Berry, has been firing in the winners of late and his yard is in obviously fine fettle after 4 winners from 15 sent out over the last month, this is the only horse he sends out today and it's to a track he rarely visits so I assume he feels the track will suit her style. George Baker doesn't often ride for this trainer, he has had 15 rides for him in the past 5 years and it's interesting that Baker is travelling to Brighton for only two rides at a course where he is also 4 wins from 15 rides this year. He has a 10% strike rate whenever he visits the course and rides it well. Ethics Girl only managed 5th last time out over 10 furlongs and was staying on well near the finish, she's upped to 12f now and that could be just what she needs along with the quick ground.

Her form over 12f+ is 2-3-3 and one of those seconds was last year on quick ground over this distance at Epsom where she stayed on better than most but just couldn't reach the winner despite closing with every stride, Epsom is probably the most similar track to Brighton and I'm interested in that form. She's also down in grade here and looks on a grand mark and carrying only 2lbs more than she did in a higher grade last time out, she was also hampered at the start in that race and was under pressure after that. There are two front runners in this race who may end up setting up the race for her, Aestival will more than likely try and make the running and although he rattled up an 8 day hat-trick I feel he could be vulnerable to horses closing in on him during the run in up the steep hill, at this stage I reckon Ethics Girl's stamina will be kicking in and she could prove to have too much for the Prescott horse and hopefully take all the beating from there. This looks an ideal opportunity for the John Berry trained filly to get off the mark this season and she has everything going for her and is overpriced at 7/1. I'd have her closer to half that or possibly 4/1. She's worth a small each way bet at tasty odds which I don't think will be there come race time.

x PyRo

3:40 Haydock - Dolphin Rock - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (PaddyPower)

First time in a while I've backed a horse from the David Barron yard as he has gone on a bit of a bad run but tomorrow he only sends out one horse, to a course he has a fine 17% strike rate with 3 year olds. This horse has been extremely progressive in his 3 year old campaign since joining the Barron yard, he opened the season off a mark of 67 when winning in a class 5 race at Thirsk and today he'll be racing off 80 in a class 3 at a course & distance he has previously won at two months ago when winning quite handily in a class 4. He came second last time out, hit 1.04 in running and just couldn't get up, traveled very well throughout but couldn't take advantage and it was over 10f which probably wasn't ideal. That was in a 5 runner race and if form is to be believed he is better in these larger fields.

Graham Gibbon travels here for only two rides tomorrow and he's a very capable jockey, this one is his best chance in my opinion and he rides the course well and shows a level stakes profit of £75 to £1 stakes. He has a fine 18% strike rate when called upon for David Barron and he has been riding very well of late. Dolphin Rock may be up in grade against better horses but he's extremely progressive and as with the majority of horse I select, weight carried is key. He'll only be carrying 8st 6lbs which makes his job that little bit easier if he proves up to this class. He has course experience and loves this ground (Form on GS: 3-2-1), even if it drys up he'll like that, the drop back to 1 mile is ideal, the wide draw is grand as wider draws surprisingly show good results over 1 mile here and he has everything going for him. If he's backed well, as with many Barron horses I may be tempted to go in for more but at current odds of 7/1 I'll be having a small each way bet on a horse that I feel is closer to a 5/1 shot if reproducing the form he has shown so far this year. He has had nearly a month off the track and should be fit and raring to go, he's tactically versatile, can be ridden to lead or sit in behind the leaders and with the likely fast pace he should get a run to suit. I'll be surprised if he's not involved in the finish and looks great value at 7/1.

x PyRo

My daily long-shot time! Yesterdays one ended up only 12/1 but hit 4/5 in running but couldn't place.

4:10 Haydock - Ultravox - .5pts e/w @ 28/1 (WillHill)

A shot in the dark if ever I picked one but this one had two decent outings as a 2 year old and was a well backed favourite on debut this year, failed miserably on re-appearance when losing by 34 lengths and was gelded, ran poorly on two starts since although one race was a hot maiden and the other was on the AW and he didn't look comfortable there. Blinkered for the first time now and that may bring back some of the old spark he used to have, and the ever wonderful Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride, he's a stunningly good jockey IMO, and he knows how to get the best out of horses who have shown little. This one is lightly raced with only 5 starts and open to some improvement and should go on to be a decent handicapper, gets in here off a mark of 73 and that looks a decent mark, only carries 9st 1lb and is drawn alright. I'm not sure about the ground but he didn't look comfortable on quick ground so maybe the soft ground will suit him and he ran a decent race on debut on soft when finishing 5th at Newbury when un-fancied.

His trainer, Brian Meehan, won this race with an un-fancied sort last year who run on the same mark and won at 20/1. Meehan has been on fire of late and this is the only horse he send out to Haydock, a course where he does well and has a 15% strike rate and shows a decent profit to level stakes. Silvestre De Sousa has only ridden for him once before and the partnership provided a victory and hopefully they can cause a big upset here. De Sousa is in great form and has had many high priced winners of late and has had 8 wins in his last 30 rides. He could well add another here if this horse finds that ability he seemed to have as a two year old and blinkers may spark it, as I say this is a long-shot and could come last but at those odds I'm having a small each way bet.

x PyRo

And another, some good racing tomorrow. One winner and I'm happy.

8:25 Sandown - Uncle Fred - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Looks dangerously handicapped to me back where he came 3rd two months ago in a hotter contest than this where he was relatively un-fancied. Jim Crowley gets the ride again for a trainer who he has a decent 11% strike rate. Chamings had a couple of winners a few weeks ago and his yard seem to be going OK, he sends out only the one here today so hopefully they've got him primed and ready. The horse won off a 2lb lower mark over 1 mile at Newbury last year and has won off 2lbs higher on the AW but I still think he's as equally good on the turf when he gets a truly run race, which he should get today. Crowley has won on him before so should know how to get the best out of him and when the going gets tough over the uphill final 4 furlongs I think his stamina could prove vital on what is a tough test, on which he proved he can do when coming 3rd here, although he was the one that got caught that day but these horses aren't as good as the opposition he faced that day. He looks overpriced at 7/1 so I'll have another small each way bet on him to gain revenge on his last performance here.

x PyRo

Ethics Girl comes 4th, she smashed another horse and hadn't a chance after that.

Dolphin Rock was just caught on the line when looking like a sure winner. Crap.

All on you Uncle Fred.

argosy2006

x PyRo wrote: »

Ethics Girl comes 4th, she smashed another horse and hadn't a chance after that.

Dolphin Rock was just caught on the line when looking like a sure winner. Crap.

All on you Uncle Fred.

Rock placed atleast, no harm done there, Ethics was unlucky, or was i :eek: lol

UrbanSea

greetings wrote: »

I got word of one from that stable,I'll post here when it's due to run.

Avida star in the last at Sligo.

OneForTheTeam

greetings wrote: »

Avida star in the last at Sligo.

Only placed ah well onward and upwards.

UrbanSea

It would have been hard to beat the favourite. I got e/w at 6/1 so a small profit,a promising start mind. Projected SP was 16/1,stable had some money on it.

x PyRo

An unlucky 4th, and how Dolphin Rock didn't win I'll never know. The other two were shocking.

-4.25pts today.

Bank - 270.00pts (+170pts)

argosy2006

x PyRo wrote: »

An unlucky 4th, and how Dolphin Rock didn't win I'll never know. The other two were shocking.

-4.25pts today.

Bank - 270.00pts (+170pts)

tomorrows another day,

x PyRo

Something different for this race tomorrow. Horse by horse. Priced up with Will Hill at the moment.

4:00 Brighton (4) 5f 213yds

Piazza San Pietro - Career high mark, top weight and not the best drawn. He has raced 8 times in the last two months and is probably due a break! Got beat in a lower grade off a mark 10lbs lower and this is much tougher, also beaten on two other occasions in weaker races. 10/3 at the moment and definitely opposable here, I'll more than likely lay it. Rating - 2/5

Hand Painted - Two time C&D winner off marks of 65 and 70, both races were in the space of two weeks, this will be the first time Travis Block doesn't ride him and instead Seb Sanders comes to a course he has an excellent 19% strike rate and when he rides for PJ Makin he's 5 from 25 at Brighton. Still lightly race with only 13 career starts and he's a 4 year old. Won off this mark this time last year at Folkstone and should strip fitter for his two starts this season in which he wasn't beaten far. Given a month off the track and should be fit and raring to go. 5/1 at the moment and one for the shortlist. Rating : 4/5

Billy Red - Won over 5f here two days ago when making all under Fergus Sweeney, that was in a weaker race than this and carrying a 6lb penalty, upped in grade and over 1f extra would lead me to avoid him. Jim Crowley isn't in great form of late and the trainer has had him as his only winner in his last 50 odd runners. It would take a career best performance on turf to win this and I feel he's definitely opposable at odds of 15/2. I doubt he'll figure unless there's some divine inspiration and he'll not get an easy lead. Rating : 1/5

Highland Harvest - Two time course winner, one time C&D winner. Dropped in grade and his win here came from a mark 2lbs higher. Although it was in a weaker grade carrying more weight. He has raced here 6 times with form reading : (1-2-0-2-2-1) including a place in a tougher race off a mark 6lbs higher of 73. That was on softer ground but he likes it quick also, as he'll get tomorrow. Stevie Donehoe takes the ride and he has been on board 3 times, winning once and second on both other occasions. He also rides the track well and has won on 3 of his last 6 rides here, with the other 3 coming second. He comes here for two rides tomorrow and this is his best chance. The trainer isn't in great form but this is the only one he sends out tomorrow to a track he rarely visits. 8/1 at the moment which is massive based on his course form and ability, should be half that. Rating : 5/5

Dvinsky - Won last time out on the AW, far better on that surface than the turf, 1lb above last winning turf mark (Grade6) but before that he hadn't won on turf for 4 years. Never won at this course despite 6 runs here although he came 2nd twice albeit back when he was a 4 year old, 9 years old now and likely to find at least one too good. The jockey hasn't rode a winner here for a long time and I don't see that changing. Currently second favourite and at 7/2 I wouldn't want to get involved with him. Certainly opposable. Rating : 2/5

Musical Script - Raced here on Wednesday in a hot race, stayed on late to grab 3rd, that was over a mile and he's interestingly dropped back to 6f now. He's another that's better on the All-Weather than he is on turf and has only ever won once on turf from 30 attempts, although that was at this course but from a 3lb lower mark. It might be a bit much to expect him to run two good races in 2 days and he only won once over 6f, 4 years ago on the AW. Will get a good gallop to suit and could come on late to grab 3rd but with only 2 places paid he's opposable but at 8/1 he's a better betting proposition that some of the shorties. Rating : 3/5

Starwatch - Made all to win at Epsom last time out in a similar contest when the 20/1 outsider of 6. Won quite handily when causing that shock, showed little in many races before that and despite weight allowances for being a 3 year old I don't fancy him to win again. Raced here twice before coming 2nd of 5 and 4th of 5 from 7&4lb lower marks, on a career high turf mark now on very quick ground that I'm not sure suits him and on a tough track. Currently 7/2 and has a poor enough, albeit, in form jockey on board. Certainly opposable and no value at that price and I think he'll end up setting it up for my eventual selection. He'll face a battle with Musical Script for 3rd place. Rating : 3/5

Conclusion:

My ratings suggest the 8/1 outsider is the likely winner of this race and I think he'll give it a damn good go so I'm having a large enough win bet on him to continue his impressive course form on a course that they say previous form is vital. He'll be fit and ready to give a bold showing and I think he's severely good value at 8/1. I think he's more likely a 4/1 shot and could go off a lot shorter tomorrow.

1st : Highland Harvest 2nd : Hand Painted 3rd : Musical Script

4:00 Brighton - Highland Harvest - 3pts @ 8/1 (WillHill)

scopper

Hey Pyro, amazing detail there! Will Hill seems to be just showing SP at the mo. Is this just me or can anyone else see the odds? I presume they might just be changing them. Oh and I'm a bit miffed Musical Script is running again. Great showing last time. Was hoping to keep an eye out but this seems too soon.

x PyRo

Cheers Scopper, hope he wins it now. :pac:

Yeah, GG had him down as 8/1 and when I went to put on my bet it's only showing SP. It's not like gg.com to make a mistake. Might have to wait until morning for a price.

scopper

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers Scopper, hope he wins it now. :pac:

Yeah, GG had him down as 8/1 and when I went to put on my bet it's only showing SP. It's not like gg.com to make a mistake. Might have to wait until morning for a price.

3pts I take is quite a bit. Seems to be the second time today that has come up - deewhy has Casela Park for that too tomorrow. Should be an interesting day anyway!

x PyRo

I think he regularly uses bigger points stakes. It's rare I got to 3 or above. It's just very good value for him and warrants that bet IMO. Could be way off but I've a good feeling, trying to find others now.

Edit: 8/1 was available with Hills between 7pm and 12. GG didn't take it down. :mad: Was wondering where the price went to!

Edit 2: That's my only selection for the afternoon racing. Might have more come tomorrow evening.

scopper

x PyRo wrote: »

Edit 2: That's my only selection for the afternoon racing. Might have more come tomorrow evening.

Hope it goes well so! :cool:

x PyRo

8/1 with Bet365.

Vurnon San Benito

Ron Robinson fancies it too