PyRo's Horse Bets.

naughto

x PyRo wrote: »

3:10 Bath - Gwilym - 2pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

A 7 year old gelding but still in fine fettle as proved when winning a 6f sprint from a 3lb lower mark, ran well on three subsequent starts and ran especially well last time out when a change in tactics over 5f at Sandown seen him finish second to Effistorm who has went on to frank that form by winning off a mark of 79 next time out. He seemed to relish the change in tactics and repelled all bar one, who was clearly on a good mark and suited by the race. This race seems to lack pace and Gwilym may just get a handy lead in this small field and should prove dangerous if leading from the front again. Dane O'Neill takes the ride and it's his only ride of the day at a course that he usually rides well at, he has been on board this gelding last twice and clearly gets a good tune out of him. He rarely rides for Haydn-Jones but has an impressive 17% strike rate when doing so. Derek Haydn-Jones' yard is in fine knick of late and 3 of his 7 runners in the past 2 weeks have won with one coming 2nd and the other 3rd. The yard is firing on all cylinders and they only send two here today, both of which have solid claims. The ground should be rapidly fast which will suit Gwilym perfectly and with an extremely capable jockey on board he must have a very good chance, especially if he continues his making all tactics which seemed ideal last time out. He has never won off a mark this high but looks well treated and on an upward curve this year which is surprising given his age. He's not ideally drawn but most of the horses who like to track the leader are around him and the hold up horses are on the other side, the pace will hopefully come from him but if not it will be made by horses close to him suggesting that the draw mightn't hinder his chances. All in all I think he has everything going for him, quick ground, good jockey, trainer in form and will more than likely get a race run to suit. I have him down as a 9/4 chance so the current 7/2 looks like value to me and I expect a bold showing from him and hopefully a win, small stakes at a generous price.

where did he come??

x PyRo

Near last if not last. Never got going at all, didn't look like he was trying.

Bank - 283.75pts (+183.75pts)

argosy2006

hows next one looking

x PyRo

No more bets for me. Askeria is 7/2 with Ladbrokes which is a grand price, most places go a lot less but I'm waiting until tomorrow for Goodwood, some decent racing there.

naughto

x PyRo wrote: »

Only bet of the day.

Keeping an eye on Footprint in the 5:05 at Roscommon. If the ground goes good to soft I might back it. He'll win soon, more than likely with a bit of cut in the ground.

In the 6:05 at Roscommon Askeria is out again, backed her at Galway when she only managed 4th after a 4 month break, she's worth looking at and should be around 4/1. Ground should be ideal and Fran Berry is up which is a big plus.

That's all folks, just the one selection. Hopefully he'll oblige.

footprint non runner

Drakar

Askeria 3rd

x PyRo

Only the one today.

3:10 Goodwood - Flodden - 2pts @ 9/2 (PaddyPower)

Capable two year old who has been on a constant upwards curve running in a very hot maiden race at Newmarket first time out. Finished behind the impressive Native Khan that day, ran very green and only managed 8th out of 14 but that was quite a hot race with numerous winners coming out of it. He then went on to step up on that form when a 6l second place to Farhh from the Bin Suroor yard, a 6l defeat looks poor but the Godolphin horse is entered in the Juddmonte, 2000 Guineas and the Investec Derby. Flodden was 6l clear of the rest of the field which looks a pretty solid run to me. He improved even more last time out in a very hot maiden at York over 7f when staying on to come 4th, behind and ahead of some very good types. Moriarty won that race and he's quite a talented imposing horse and coming 6l behind him is a good run in my book. My selection is upped to 1m now which is ideal given the way he stayed on last time out and with even more experience under his hat he should improve enough to go very close off what looks a handy mark of 71 in a nursery. He's drawn sound and can be ridden to make all or produced late so I don't think that it matter what way the race is run but there seems to be plenty of pace here and with Jamie Spencer on board they might just prefer to wait with him and ensure he'll stay the mile. Spencer has been on board him every time he has raced and should know exactly how to get the best out of him and the quick ground seems ideal also, Jamie rides the track well and has a decent 14% strike rate for Paul Cole and they had a 30% strike rate during August, clearly in good form when teaming up and Cole thinks this horse is in with a good chance today and to me looks value at 9/2 and holds the best form in the race. He cost $170,000 and is well bred and should hopefully prove well ahead of his mark of 71, which looks lenient. He's constantly improving and I feel the extra furlong could bring out more here if all goes to plan. Looks overpriced and is closer to 3/1 in my book. Small win bet at nice odds.

argosy2006

awwwwwww was hoping u would pick one for the race on the beach

x PyRo

haha.

Not much I can call at that meeting but Northern Rocked in the 5:30 should win if he tries! Well in at the weights and has the best form by a long shot. Pity it's on sand and water though. :pac: Will only be around 2/1>5/2 but he'll go close I'd say.

thesandeman

Lol. Hugh and Gary are opposing your two fancies. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top.

UrbanSea

Flodden as big as 6/1 with Ladbrokes. Won't be getting on it,I'm not the biggest fan of nurseries but the best of luck.

scopper

^The entire market is going crazy in that race. Flodden is actually one of the most stable horses in there market wise and the drift seems more like a correction than a loss of confidence. Not into nurseries myself either altho I wish I was brave enough to take a punt sometimes as I've seen some amazing winners come off with them.

Incidentally for those in the game for the numbers/probab/market side of things check out 2.35 Goodwood for a lesson in market schizoprenia!

argosy2006

greetings wrote: »

Flodden as big as 6/1 with Ladbrokes. Won't be getting on it,I'm not the biggest fan of nurseries but the best of luck.

been backed now,, will go off favourite i think,,,,,,,,,

x PyRo

Pulled out. Jesus Christ.

x PyRo

Only bet for the day now..

3:55 Lingfield - Duster - 1pt @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Unexposed 3 year old who has only had 7 career runs and is open to a lot more improvement. He likes to run prominently and could well get to dictate things here. He won off 6lbs lower over 6f at Folkstone after coming second over C&D on seasonal reappearance but ran terribly next time out and hasn't been seen since. That was two months ago but he should come on for that break and has a lot more improvement to come and the return to 7f should help as he seems to have a good mix of speed and stamina. Yard flying of late and this is the only one they send here which is interesting. He's drawn high which is perfect and his main challenger for the lead is drawn on the other side. He looks well overpriced at 8/1 and is only 5/1 in my book. Should have a good chance if coming on for his 6f Folkstone win.

x PyRo

3rd.

Got the 5/1 price spot on.

scopper

Stick a fiver on it about a minute before the off. Place so not bad. Prolly the least exciting race I have ever watched tho. Looked like they were all out for a stroll. Thanks!

x PyRo

Going to keep an eye on Duster, there's more to come from him over 7f in my opinion, especially if he gets an easy lead. I probably should of went e/w but I hate going e/w in those sorts of races.

Wigmore Hall has to have an extremely solid chance tomorrow, looks a classy sort.

Some decent racing to get my teeth into tomorrow.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Not much I can call at that meeting but Northern Rocked in the 5:30 should win if he tries! Well in at the weights and has the best form by a long shot. Pity it's on sand and water though. :pac: Will only be around 2/1>5/2 but he'll go close I'd say.

Wins at 5/2.

Vurnon San Benito

x PyRo wrote: »

Wins at 5/2.

I got him at 3/1 before the off with Bet365

NaiveMelodies

Would be also looking at a big bet on Wigmore Hall, but for the soft ground, will see how it shapes up in the morning.
Any opinions or ideas how he'd run on the softer ground as all i can see from his form guide is a last place finish(albeit a small field) in Ascot on soft last summer?

x PyRo

He's a son of High Chaparral who won the Breeders Cup, English and Irish Derbies all on Good to Soft ground and Wigmore Hall always struck me as one who'd like a bit of cut in the ground but I'm not the best at judging their actions, so I may be wrong.

That Ascot race was over 7f so I'd scratch that one, he hasn't the pace for a 7f race. I'll also wait for tomorrow I think, he's more progressive and better than Al Zir, who, in my opinion, is the only horse that would be able put it up to him here. If Wigmore Hall runs like he did at Arlington he'll win.

Nulty might be able to say more about his action and potential to like a bit of cut in the ground. Can you Nulty?

Nulty

Its hard to tell. Sure he could handle it but whether he can reproduce his best form on it is a different question. Theres promise in High Chaparrals record but the dam side is much less obvious. To be honest, on the ground, even with WHs defeat at Ascot last year over an unsufficient distance while he seemed to handle that for most of the race, Al Zir has massive prospects on the ground. His sire has a very good record on Soft and another of Godolphins 3yos by Medaglio D'Oro this year smashed Mikhail Glinka in France on Soft ground last year by 6l.

IMO, he'll handle it but if he's the best on it of the horses racing tomorrow is anyones guess. Its a no-bet race to be honest. If you really want a bet in it wait to hear what the trainers say tomorrow. They know better than anyone.

GL

x PyRo

Cheers Nulty, much appreciated.

2:00 Doncaster - Orientalist - 1pt @ 11/1 (PaddyPower)

Looks very overpriced to me, this fellow has shown vast improvement since being stepped up to 7f, winning 3 times and coming 4/13 before notching up the hat-trick. He has a really good attitude and even when hard pressed he always battles on and sticks his neck out. He traveled wonderfully last time out and repelled all challengers to win by a head. He's stepped up in class now and carries a 6lb penalty to boot, but he has a top 5lb claim on board which will certainly help his chances. He's trained by Eve Johnson Houghton who has been in stunning form of late and 5 of her 14 runners this month have won giving her a terrific 35% strike rate and a wondeful start to the month. She's only sending this one out to Doncaster, which is a track she rarely visits and has only done so on 9 occasions before today. Adam Beschizza is on board and he's a top young rider and great value for his 5lb claim, he has had a wonderful start to his career and will go on to be a top jockey in my opinion, he has been banging in the winners of late and comes here for only one ride. 4 out of his last 7 rides have won and hopefully he can add one more to that before heading up to Kempton for two rides in the evening.

Orientalist is one of the more exposed horses here but is clearly on an upwards curve and has a lot more progression to come hopefully, he has went up 14lbs since the start of August and despite having 4 runs in quick succession and a 3 day break between this and his last run, I feel he has solid claims and is very much overpriced at 11/1. He's a 13/2 shot in my book and with the likely pace in the race coming from horses drawn closely to him I feel he has everything going for him here. The soft-ish ground is an unknown but there is form in his breeding suggesting it should be too much bother and he runs like the type who could excel on it. All in all he has a very good chance if coming on from that last run and shouldn't be this big a price and is worth a small win bet, not going to bother going e/w in a race with so many potential improvers in and hope he can go the whole hog and win.

Nulty

No problem PyRo. Just my 2c.

Should be a good 5 days culminating in the Blanford on Sunday. Aviate has been supplemented.

Good luck tomorrow.

x PyRo

3:10 Doncaster - Rose Blossom - 2pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Likable filly who ran a very creditable 5th in the Nunthorpe, she set a blistering pace that day and ran out of steam but was only 3.5 lengths behind eventual winner Sole Power. She steps back to Listed class now and must have a very solid chance. The race before that she won a Group 3 race when making all to win at York, beating some decent sorts on quick ground and looked a very talented prospect. She's still relatively unexposed with only 11 career runs to her name but is clearly on an upwards curve and should be well able to give a good account of herself here. With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good her run at the end of May in a similar even on good to soft ground really catches the eye, she finished 1/2 a length behind High Standing over this trip and showed so much speed she had the rest of them off the bridle after a couple of furlongs, she looked the likely winner but ran around in front on her first run on soft-ish ground and should be all the better for that experience. The horse who beat her since went on to come 3rd behind Regal Parade in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest.

Rose Blossom came 4th out of 10 runner last year in a Group 2 event over C&D, she should really enjoy the return to this track which should suit her style and if she gets a handy lead as I expect her to then she's a massive threat. The Richard Fahey yard has hit a bit of form again in the last little while and they've got a good 20% strike rate since the turn of the month. Paul Hanagan takes the ride and despite he himself also hitting a rough patch the new month has seen him return to form with an impressive 8 winners from 30 rides. He's a good sprint jockey and should be well able to gauge my selections ride to perfection if he gets the lead. Rose Blossom seemed to relish the cut in the ground when she encountered it, which surprised me, but if she takes to it again I think she has an extremely solid chance especially with many of the field needing quicker ground to be effective. She's 7/2 in my book so the 11/2 looks very generous and I'll be surprised if she's that price some race time, I'd also expect a few withdrawals due to the ground if it continues to rain and that'll help too. Even if it does quicken up she has an excellent chance and hopefully she can replicate her Group 3 win at York and justify my support. 11/2 looks great value and she's worth a small win bet.

x PyRo

4:50 Doncaster - Carnaby Street - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)

Below par on last three runs since making seasonal comeback at Lingfield and running respectably in a Listed race. All three runs since have been on quick ground and his best form is on softer group. He won a Group 3 over this distance on final 2 year old start on heavy ground when being the supposed "third string" Hannon horse and according to the betting he's the "second string" here with Kajima seen as their main hope, previously to that he won his maiden on Good to Soft ground by over 5 lengths. Those two runs are his only two wins, he obviously likes that bit of cut in the ground and there's a very good chance he'll get that once again here if things continue as they are. He likes to be ridden fairly prominent and tried to make all last time out in a Listed race at York over this distance on quick ground but got bumped 2f out and weakened badly. His price is based on those few poor runs but the horse clearly has ability but hasn't shown it this year, as of yet.

He's drawn high in stall 11 and with most of the pace around the middle stalls I'm hoping he can get fairly close to them early on as he seems much better when running along side the pace. He has a nice turn of foot on the soft ground and the trip is him optimum in my opinion. Jimmy Fortune takes the ride and he's an extremely good jockey and comes here for only 2 rides today, he rides the course well and doesn't come here too often nowadays and the last time he came here, in May, he rode one horse and has one winner. Carnaby Street is dropped 6lbs from his opening handicap mark of 103 which is also a help with conditions to suit and hopefully a race to suit I see the 25/1 available as too big, his 2 year old form was impressive also and he came 2nd ahead Nunthorpe winner, Sole Power, in the St Leger Yearling Stakes. That was on quick ground too which doesn't seem ideal for him. He's a 12/1 shot in my book and at just over double that price he's worth a small each way bet to take this. Might come last but if recapturing his form he has the beating of the majority of these.

x PyRo

5:20 Doncaster - Oldjoesaid - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

It's only a matter of time before this fellow clicks again, he's a long time without a win, April 2008 to be exact but that was off a mark of 19lbs higher and on soft ground, he'll get cut in the ground today and 3 of his 4 of his career wins have come with cut in the ground, all of which were off higher marks than todays. He hasn't run with much zest this season but that's due to the ground in my opinion bar one race where he was 15/16 on softer ground but that was over 6f which he's ineffective at. Jamie Spencer takes the ride today for Kevin Ryan, they have a brilliant 23% strike record together out of 200 rides. Spencer hasn't been in great form of late but will hopefully be able to change that here on this fellow who should be an ideal ride for him.

There will be a good pace in the race which will suit him and he's drawn soundly in stall 11. He was available at 16/1 with William Hill earlier and if I get that tomorrow I'll be quite happy. I'll be very surprised if we don't see him come back to himself on this ground and put in a good effort, he looks well overpriced to me and on his day is the best horse in the race. Traveled well for a long time and hit 6/4 in running (somehow) but I don't think the awkward track suited him and he'll be more suited to the flats of Doncaster where he has run well twice. Coming 6th of 22 off a mark 14lbs higher and coming 4th of 21 from a 19lb higher mark on soft ground too. They've left off the blinkers that were on last time out and replaced them with a tongue tie which will hopefully rejuvenate him. He's a horse with lots of ability but hasn't been showing much of late, here's hoping he comes back to his old self but with conditions to suit and a jockey who should suit his style I feel he could make a mockery out of the predicted 16/1 price. He's an 8/1 shot in my book which is a fair difference and he will hopefully go well, small each way bet and my final selection of the day.

x PyRo

Time to sleep.

:pac:

UrbanSea

Haha a very late night :pac: