PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

2:05 Doncaster - Chilly Filly - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Ran a gallant race in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock last week when coming 5th, 2 lengths behind impressive winner Kansai Spirit. She looked a big danger in the final few furlongs when push came to shove and even hit 6/4 in running, she was one paced in the final furlong on what was only her second try over the 1m 6f distance. She won her previous try over this trip and the poor draw at Haydock last time out probably cost her from having that final push on to challenge. She was still a couple of lengths up on the rest of the field and ran a gallant race regardless of the position, she's still relatively lightly raced with only 13 career starts (won 3) and potentially has more improvement to come. She's well bred and a daughter of Monteju so there's lots of ability in the breeding and hopefully she can find that little bit extra today to prove she has got what it takes to land one of these big handicaps. One of my favourite jockeys, Silvester De Sousa takes the ride on the Mark Johnston trained filly and he's a more than capable jockey who doesn't often ride for Johnston and when he does they have an impressive 25% strike rate and a 52% place strike rate. He's a very good jockey over these longer distances and can really get his mounts traveling well throughout and if he succeeds in doing this tomorrow he could well have a good chance of being piloting the winner, he has a great level stakes profit over this 14f trip and a wonderful 28% strike rate. Chilly Filly looks to have a very good chance here if following up on her run last time out and with the ground and draw being ideal for her she could shock some people here if feeling no ill-effects of her run 6 days ago. 16/1 looks very generous for what I thought was a 9/1 shot and I wouldn't be surprised to see her backed tomorrow. Small e/w stakes in a tough race.

x PyRo

2:40 Doncaster - Motrice - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)

Extremely progressive filly from the Sir Mark Prescott yard, well bred daughter of Motivator who has lots of speed and stamina and now takes a step up to Group 2 level over 2m 2f. She was predominately raced in handicaps in 2010, starting off a rating off a mark of 60 and now running in Group contests, amazing. She won three lowly handicaps then jumped up to Group 3 level at Goodwood last time out, she managed a highly creditable 3rd over 1m 6f when coming 5.5l behind Eastern Aria who has since franked that form by winning cosily in a Group 2 at this track yesterday.

She gets a whopping 14lb weight allowance for being a 3 year old and another 3lbs for being a filly, this leaves her carrying a lowly 7st 12lbs over such a long trip which is very key in my opinion. She receives weight all-round and is very well in on official ratings with the rest of the field. She has lots of speed and should stay this extra 4f quite handily and with slower ground today than her last race she has everything going for her. Silvester De Sousa is on board this selection too, riding for Sir Mark Prescott which he only ever does when required to do such a low weight. They're 2/6 (33%) when teaming up and can hopefully add another few percent to that today. All in all she's well in at the weights all-round and will hopefully be able to take advantage of this. Sir Mark Prescott won this race in '01 with a 3 year old filly so here's hoping history can repeat itself. The stable is in unbelievable form of late with a staggering 8 of their 9 runners this month ending up in the winners enclosure, that's unbelievable stuff from the yard and Prescott wouldn't be entering this filly in a Group 2 race if he didn't believe she had the ability to win. She has a very good chance in my opinion, gets weight all-round, top jockey, ground perfect, trip should suit and the track should be ideal too. She's 3/1 favourite in my book so the 5/1 looks mighty generous and worth a medium sized bet. It should be a very interesting tactical affair but I'm quietly confident we'll see a big run from this game and highly progressive filly.

x PyRo

Final selection of a highly interesting days racing.

3:50 Doncaster - Fireback - 1.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (StanJames)

Lightly raced three year old who won impressively in a top quality Heritage Handicap at Newmarket in July over 6f, I selected him at 22/1 that day and he was well backed into 12's and won by a comfortable 3/4's of a length. He ran poorly next time out when upped to 7f again and weakened badly in the final furlong, he then went on to run poorly at Ascot over 6f off a mark of 1lb higher, he was hampered after 1f which put paid to his challenge and the combination of that and two tough races over 10 days really took its toll on him. He has been off the track for a month now and comes back to a track and distance that should suit him perfectly. He's trained by Andrew Balding who's had a decent time of it of late and usually does well with his 3 year olds and Fireback looks to have more to come. David Probert takes the ride and he has been the pilot for both of his two career wins, he knows how to get this fellow traveling well and he has an impressive 15% strike rate when riding for Balding, although Probert has never ridden a winner at Doncaster but has only had 25 rides here, hopefully my selection is number one.

Fireback gets a 4lb weight allowance for being a 3 year old and that will certainly help and means he'll be just 4lbs higher than his last winning mark and he's certainly open to that much improvement due to being lightly races and quite progressive. He's overpriced at 16's and 10/1 would be a fairer reflection of his chances and he's worth a small each way bet on a slower surface which should suit him based on his 3 length win at Lingfield in May over the highly progressive Raakan who was a neck behind this races favourite Citrus Star. That was over 7f too which isn't his most effective trip as he's more speed than stamina. I feel he has a lot going for him and could hopefully make it 3 from 10 come 3:55pm today.

Total Points Staked - 10pts

/falls asleep... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Hondo75

Hi Pyro.

Have you any fancies for The Curragh on Sat.Will be there for the Thorough beer festival and might even lay a few..Thx

turbobaby

Hi Pyro, I note you've strongly tipped Poets Place in the Ayr Gold Cup. Doesn't it run in Doncaster on Saturday too? Thought I'd see you tipping it for tomorrow too. Any reason why not? Cheers

Nulty

Fireback 25/1 with Bet365.

I'd get on again if I were you.

x PyRo

turbobaby wrote: »

Hi Pyro, I note you've strongly tipped Poets Place in the Ayr Gold Cup. Doesn't it run in Doncaster on Saturday too? Thought I'd see you tipping it for tomorrow too. Any reason why not? Cheers

I will surely mate, just waiting to see if the ground isn't too fast. He'll probably like the fast ground too but I loved the way he ran with a bit of cut in the ground last time out.

I'll be putting on an ante post bet tomorrow regardless of how he does, I've had a nice bit on already and I'll be going in again I'd say.

Nulty wrote: »

Fireback 25/1 with Bet365.

I'd get on again if I were you.

I don't want to get greedy. :pac: Can't believe he's 25/1 though.

Dinkum Diamond came 2nd, excuses or not, he should of won and if he didn't get slightly hampered when Zebedee ran past he would of in my opinion. My 100% book got the top 3 in the right order, happy with that.

TheMilkyPirate

x PyRo wrote: »

I will surely mate, just waiting to see if the ground isn't too fast. He'll probably like the fast ground too but I loved the way he ran with a bit of cut in the ground last time out.

I'll be putting on an ante post bet tomorrow regardless of how he does, I've had a nice bit on already and I'll be going in again I'd say.



I don't want to get greedy. :pac: Can't believe he's 25/1 though.

Dinkum Diamond came 2nd, excuses or not, he should of won and if he didn't get slightly hampered when Zebedee ran past he would of in my opinion. My 100% book got the top 3 in the right order, happy with that.

TBH pyro zebedee won cosily enough no?

Nulty

baraca wrote: »

TBH pyro zebedee won cosily enough no?

I would say that Zebedee was the best horse what ever the case.

x PyRo

If Dinkum didn't veer left into the other horse when Zebedee was pushed through it was his race to lose.

Chilly Filly and Motrice both 3rd.

TheMilkyPirate

x PyRo wrote: »

If Dinkum didn't veer left into the other horse when Zebedee was pushed through it was his race to lose.

Chilly Filly and Motrice both 3rd.

Fair enough i suppose we'll never know. I'm on fireback as well so hoping for at least a good run for us.

x PyRo

Zebedee is a class act regardless, I just thought with a clear run Dinkum would of been even closer if not winning, was traveling better than I've ever seen him before. Ah well, win some lose some.

Good luck with Fireback, not a single move in price for him at all. Quite odd.

x PyRo

-5pts today.

2nd, 3rd, 3rd & 6th. Fireback really paid for the rapid pace set by Lowther, by the time he took it up he was burnt out for trying to match Lowther stride for stride at such a crazy pace, keeping faith with him and I'll certainly be backing him next time out.

Bank - 275.75pts (+175.75pts)


Bring on tomorrow! Bound to have another good Saturday after an average week.

x PyRo

So much racing tomorrow, quite a few selections too over the cards.

2:10 Doncaster - Approve - 2pts @ 4/1 (PaddyPower)

Impressive 2 year old colt who already has two Group 2's to his name, winning the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot over 5f and winning the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time out when winning quite impressively. He has bundles of speed and showed a great attitude when battling back to get up in the final furlong after looking in real bother 3f out, he ran on very well down the middle of the track on possibly the slowest part of ground at York and had a poor draw also. He stepped up on that Ascot form when winning that race at York and is clearly thriving, he got slower ground that day and should have similar tomorrow at a track that should suit him perfectly. He has to give away 3lbs all round but he had to do that at York also, he's highly thought of and has entries in numerous Group 1's over the coming year including the 2000 Guineas and The Derby, although he mightn't be good enough for that he still has a lot more to come.

Approve now steps up to 7f for the first time and being a son of Oasis Dream should see this extra furlong bring out even more as he clearly won at Ascot based on stamina and similarly at York last time out. He's trained by William Haggas who has seen his stable in great knick over the last 3 weeks winning with 30% of his runners, he only sends two to Doncaster tomorrow which is a track he has a 20% strike rate with his 2 year olds which is impressive. Approve is constantly improving and should be well able to give odd-on and highly though of Godolphin colt Saamidd a good run for his money, he won easily last time out but this is a big step up in class and regardless of his obvious ability I feel that odd-on is a crazy price for a horse with no Group form as of yet and only one career start to his name. The only other obvious danger is the last time out Group winner, Waiter's Dream. He won by 4.5l in Group 3 company in the Acomb Stakes at York but comes up against better opposition here and I feel he's certainly under-priced at 5/2 best priced. Approve has the best form in the race, may be more exposed than these but he's unexposed at the trip having never raced on it and judging by the way he stayed on last time out he should relish it, with the trainer and jockey in such good form and everything else going for him I feel 4/1 is very generous and I'd have him quite a lot shorter than that at 6/4 favourite based on all known form. He is a very good price and should put in a brave effort tomorrow, small win stakes.

PEACEBROTHER

can somebody get a price on cape royale tomorrow in 2.15 sanown , dont have access to betting websites right now
Cheers

x PyRo

8.6 on Betfair. No bookie prices up yet.

PEACEBROTHER

cheers pyro,
What you think about this horse, ive been followin this horse for a while an lucky enough to back last 2 wins. It rarely finishes outside a place .
1 thing I notice is its usually cosgrave aboard but its dane 0'neill tomorrow,
Any reason ? good sign , bad sign ?

x PyRo

I'll look into it later for you mate, flat out at the moment with Donny.

Dane O'Neill = Big plus, in my opinion. Cosgrave gets on well with the horse though.

x PyRo

2:45 Doncaster - Poet's Place - 5pts @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

Lightly raced and highly progressive 5 year old who didn't see a race track until November '09 when he raced and won at Southwell winning by 4 lengths, he then won again at Southwell over 6f winning by the same margin again off a mark of 75. He had a 4 month break before return at Doncaster running off 87, looked a big threat but faded in the final furlong to come a close 5th with 3 of the 4 horses ahead of him winning since that race. He finished 4.5l behind Johnny Mudball next time out on rapidly fast ground which suited the Dascombe horse and didn't suit my selection at all. He was well clear of the rest of the field. Ran no race in a big Heritage Handicap after that coming 12th on rapid ground again and over 7f which doesn't suit at all.

The form of his next run and his last race is what I'm extremely impressed by, he absolutely trounced a very competitive field in a class 3 handicap at Haydock Park. He absolutely relished the softer ground that day and beat the highly progressive and soft ground specialist Harry Patch who has since won at Yarmouth beating a good horse in Mac's Power quite easily. Dimika (3rd) came out of that race and won in a 17 runner Heritage Handicap at Ripon on soft ground, the 6th place, Baby Strange came out and won at this course over 6f in a 19 runner field. The 9th place horse, Fathsta, won since and even the 14th placed horse, Definightly, came out and won on slower ground since too. The form of that race is rock solid and he won eased down and at a canter. Poet's Place has been raised 10lbs for the run and it's more than fair in my opinion and there's a lot more to come from this fellow, he's entered in the Ayr Gold Cup on the 18th of this month and also in the Group 2 Diadem Stakes at Ascot in October. I'm max betting this fellow and if he doesn't win today, I'm extremely sure he'll win one of those two races, especially the Ayr Gold Cup to which he has been aimed at all season.

He's trained by my favourite trainer, David Barron, who certainly knows how to treat a horse and gets the best out of them. He has been patient with this fellow and it's coming to fruition now. He's extremely lightly raced with only 6 career starts (3 wins) and has a lot more to come, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a good Group race in the coming year or so. He has so much speed and cruises through his races to perfection. He'll be suited by the ground here today and the track should be perfect for his style and if he can get to the head of affairs from stall 7 he should have a very very solid chance of going in but he is tactically versatile so I wouldn't be surprised to see him coming off a strong pace to take this. As long as the ground doesn't get extremely firm he has a mighty fine chance of landing the spoils here and if it rains (rain forecasted) I'll happily go in again. He's the only horse David Barron sends out tomorrow and I assume he'll be on course to hopefully meet his charge in the winners enclosure and I expect the 11/2 price won't be available come race time as Mr. Barron loves a bet and he has won this race in the past also. It's probably a bit risky putting maximum stakes on a 22 runner handicap race but I seriously feel this fellow is a class act and should take all the beating tomorrow. He's clear favourite in my book at 5/2 for his demolishing of a top field last time out and the form from that race is spectacularly good, he has had a nice 1 month break and should be fresh and ready to hopefully land this and the Ayr Gold Cup this day week should he run in it, which I think he will. Phillip Makin takes the ride and it's his only ride of the day, he's an excellent sprint jockey and has been on board this fellow 5 times with form reading 1-1-5-2-1 including that impressive run last time out. The 5.5f is an ideal trip for Poet's Place as he has so much speed and travels like a dream and all in all I think he's by far and away the one to beat and hopefully will justify a maximum stake selection, although I could have egg on my face come 2:47 if Mr. Barron decides he shouldn't be winning this and waits for the Ayr Gold Cup in which he has already been assigned 8st 11lbs but I think he'll win this and at Ayr and go on to better thing.

x PyRo

5:00 Doncaster - Capponi - 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

Really liking the look of Mark Johnston's 3 year old here. Ran well for a long time over 1m 2f on penultimate start but faded inside the final furlong when looking the most likely winner, hit 4/5 in running and ended up coming 9th of 15. He was dropped back to 1m last time out and had the worst draw in the race (I backed him stupidly) and he say no racing room throughout the race. He's kept at 1m here which is ideal, his 1m form bar last time out reads : 1-2-1-1 which is obviously impressive and he's likely to get a race run to suit and I think he'll be in the firing line come the end, only has had 6 starts, won 3 of those (All at a mile) and is open to a lot more improvement, this race is certainly not beyond him and I think the 8/1 available is extremely generous, I'd have him as a 5/1 shot and even at that he'd be a good price.

Silvester De Sousa takes the ride on Capponi and no better man to have on board and he should find this fellow an ideal ride for him and he has an impressive 21% strike rate when riding for Mark Johnston and if he can get him settled in behind the leaders on the back of a strong pace he'll have a great chance come the final furlong and seems to have a good enough turn of foot to ensure victory here. Capponi has an entry in the big Heritage Handicap at Newmarket which is the Cambridgeshire on October 2nd and he would have to be winning races like this if he's going to compete at that level. Hopefully connections will be out to make amends for his run last time out and recover lost cash with a win here, he obviously has ability and I expect to see him backed as 8's look too big. Should go well at a nice price and worth a small e/w bet.


Total Staked at Doncaster - 10pts

argosy2006

these will be on my multi bet tomorrow,
hopefully a win or two

x PyRo

Backed this one the other day, using a lot of the similar write up as there's not much to change and I'm lazy! Even the same stall today! Different track though.

2:25 Goodwood - Carnaby Street - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Below par on last four runs since making seasonal comeback at Lingfield and running respectably in a Listed race. All three runs since have been on quick ground and his best form is on softer group. He won a Group 3 over this distance on final 2 year old start on heavy ground when being the supposed "third string" Hannon horse, previously to that he won his maiden on Good to Soft ground by over 5 lengths. Those two runs are his only two wins, he obviously likes that bit of cut in the ground and there's a very good chance he'll get that once again here if things continue as they are. He likes to be ridden fairly prominent and tried to make all on penultimate start in a Listed race at York over this distance on quick ground but got bumped 2f out and weakened badly. His price is based on those few poor runs but the horse clearly has ability but hasn't shown it this year, as of yet.

He's drawn high in stall 11 and with most of the pace around him I'm hoping he can get fairly close to them early on as he seems much better when running along side the pace. He has a nice turn of foot on the soft ground and the trip is him optimum in my opinion. Richard Hughes takes the ride and he's an extremely classy jockey and comes here to a track that he rides very well. Carnaby Street is dropped 6lbs from his opening handicap mark of 103 which is also a help with conditions to suit and hopefully a race to suit I see the 16/1 available as too big, his 2 year old form was impressive also and he came 2nd ahead Nunthorpe winner, Sole Power, in the St Leger Yearling Stakes. That was on quick ground too which doesn't seem ideal for him. He only ran 3 days ago at Doncaster and ran well for a long time, had every chance 2f out but once headed he wasn't pushed too hard, he clearly has ability and should strip a lot fitter for that run and could have a good chance of running into a place if finding himself again. He's a 7/1 shot in my book and at just over double that price he's worth a small each way bet to take this. Might come last but if recapturing his form he has the beating of the majority of these.

UnitedIrishman

Can't understand how Approve is 4/1 for that race either Pyro. Up against, no doubt a good horse from Suroors stable, but relatively unproven in this kind of company whereas Approve has two group wins whilst Waiters Dream also has a Group win. Fair enough it's a longer trip but I think he's well able for it. They'd be mine 1-2.

thesandeman

Would be a nice forecast in the 2.45 if Pyro and Aidans picks came 1-2 B-)

x PyRo

Actually, the 4 bets will do me sound, I've enough staked and my head is bloody fried from looking at too many races.

naughto

photo finish he left it late.

woooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh he won it my 2nd winner of the day

TheMilkyPirate

Photo me arse clear head, Well done pyro. Heart attack stuff!

x PyRo

My heart.

Nulty

You may have made a lot of boardsies happy

Philcan

Nicely done pyro.

Made a nice few euros on that.

Thanks again.