PyRo's Horse Bets.

Nulty

He's impossible to knock. 4 wins from 7 starts...two in a row...unexposed. Whats not to like. He's as short as he should be for a race like this though. Its a case of the wedding and the funeral for me though. I couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I backed anything in single figures in a 27 runners sprint handicap. He's got an obvious chance though and could be rated 115 next year for all we know. The price would encourage me to look elsewhere though

UrbanSea

One favourite in twenty five runnings BUT it was from the same yard.

x PyRo

I think he's the stand out horse, it's a bit of Russian Roulette alright but I'll be having a few other small 1pt e/w bets on some other horses too. It's a brilliant race and I'll not be having all my eggs in one basket, but I expect Poet's Place to be the best horse in the race and win it then move on to Group level. He's a class act. Entered in the Diadem Stakes next month too.

UrbanSea

Difficult to see many winners here going on to be a serious group horse. Plenty that could run in some mediocre group 3 sprints,but realistically,there probably isn't going to be a group 1 or 2 winner at Ayr this whole weekend.

x PyRo

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :pac:

Gavin "shels"

So what time will I have to stay up till tonight to get all your selections? Plan on throwing them into a patent/lucky15 or something along them lines.

L'prof

Gavin shels wrote: »

So what time will I have to stay up till tonight to get all your selections? Plan on throwing them into a patent/lucky15 or something along them lines.

4 or 5 would be my guess

x PyRo

Could be 4 or 5 mate, not sure.

Just after remembering that PM, sorry for not getting back to you.

Edit : Well done Ninja 'Prof. :pac:

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

Could be 4 or 5 mate, not sure.

Just after remembering that PM, sorry for not getting back to you.

Awh right, need my lazy day tomorrow after a long first week in college and some horrible shifts in work, might just get up at 10am and go back to sleep.:D

No worries mate, didn't really matter in the end because I couldn't get onto the internet to place them, didn't even check to see if any were any use.

x PyRo

3:05 Newbury - Breakheart - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Highly consistent and progressive 3 year old who is lightly raced and still on an upwards curve despite a poor showing last time out, soft ground was to blame for that in my opinion and he should get his favoured quick ground today at Newbury with no rain predicted and the ground is currently Good (Good to Firm) which should suit him perfectly. He has only had 7 career runs, winning twice and coming 2nd 3 times. He had 4 runs from the middle of June until the beginning of August and his latest run was that flop on soft ground, he may of been feeling the toll of so many races in the space of 6 weeks and has had the last 6 weeks off the track which should see him rejuvenated and ready for the toughest task of his career in this Grade 2 Heritage Handicap. He has only raced over this 1m 2f trip on 3 occasions with form reading 2-2-7, all in this grade and one of those 2nd places was a nose defeat to the progressive Hanoverian Barron at Ascot over this trip. My selection pushed him all the way that day and nearly got the better of him but the line came too soon.

In the race before that, Breakheart ran in a very similar hot Heritage Handicap at Newmarket off a mark of 85, he came 2nd when flying late home on very fast ground but the line came too soon and he went down by a neck to Circumvent. My selection was 2 lengths ahead of Hot Prospect (5th) whom he finished 11 length behind last time out at Haydock on that soft ground, I truly believe the soft ground was the reason for that defeat and that's the reason he's such a big price here after being 9/2 favourite for the previous race. Ransom Note who was further back in 7th place has won since in a hot handicap at York to frank the form even more. The 8th placed horse, Start Right, has since won twice on quick ground after being stepped back to 1m. Redbadge finished 10th and has since won twice on his next two starts at Listed and Group 3 level, although that was on softer ground. The form of that race looks fairly solid to me and the way Breakheart traveled throughout that race leads me to believe there is quite a bit more to come from this fellow. He is 6lbs higher in the handicap mark now but he receives 6lbs in weight for being a 3 year old taking on his elders and that will certainly help.

He'll be carrying 8st 7lbs which is joint bottom weight and Franny Norton takes the ride, he has been on him before and was on the Balding horse for his sole handicap win and that impressive 2nd place behind Circumvent at Newmarket. He's a very good jockey in my opinion and clearly gets on well with this fellow and the way he travels throughout his races could see him get an ideally run race here, plus if the ground dries out he's going to have an even better chance. He had every chance with 2f to go last time out and even hit 2.42 in running but the soft ground really took it out of him and cost him any chance he had of winning or placing. This is a very tough race but there is plenty of speed with the likes of Aattash in the race and a few more too. There will more than likely be a good gallop which should play into my selections favour, he has a tendency to be up with the pace tracking the leaders but with so many prominent horses in the field I think he could revert to the more patient tactics he used on his only career win, that was in a 7 runner race but Trés Coronas set a very fast gallop that day which suited the Andrew Balding horse perfectly and he asserted his domination in the final furlong to win comfortably. He will more than likely trade shorter I'd imagine and looks a good back to lay horse as when he often looms up in the final couple of furlongs he always looks a massive danger and that could happen again here with a bit of luck. He has the ability and potential to take one of these competitive handicaps and with a bit more patience tactically I think he could prove severely overpriced. Looks great value at 14/1 and he's an 8/1 shot in my book and worth small each way stakes.

UrbanSea

**** off pyro,I was seriously tempted to back Breakheart each way. Balding is having an absolute cracker of a season and you can't fault this boy's form.

UnitedIrishman

Ha funny, the five horse shortlist I had picked out for that race were Senate, Breakheart, Cumulus Nimbus, Aatash and Magaling.

Think I'll wait til morning until backing though.

UrbanSea

Hard race too though,Senate is really going places.

UnitedIrishman

greetings wrote: »

Hard race too though,Senate is really going places.

In fairness, it's pretty much impossible to back it purely because of the price in such a big field but will see what it opens tomorrow. It's form behind Jet Away is pretty impressive though.

UrbanSea

Totally agree,I wouldn't go near it,but I wouldn't oppose it too fiercely either. Jet Away still needs to prove himself to boost that form,he could make a group horse yet though,not gr.1 or 2 though I'd say.

UnitedIrishman

greetings wrote: »

Totally agree,I wouldn't go near it,but I wouldn't oppose it too fiercely either. Jet Away still needs to prove himself to boost that form,he could make a group horse yet though,not gr.1 or 2 though I'd say.

Agreed. Think I'm going to side with Magaling and Breakheart tomorrow in the end. The former has some nice form too even though as Pyro suggested I'd imagine they'd be a lot closer than their last outing if the going was different.

UrbanSea

I'm not gonna bother betting on that race. I wanna see how Layali Al Andalus does in the conditions race,was a top horse at 2,hasn't beaten a horse home in two runs since moving to Godolphin.

x PyRo

This is pretty much a rehashed version of my previous Mister Hughie write up with more added on. Not much else I can say about this beast. :pac:

3:40 Newbury - Mister Hughie - 2.5pts e/w @ 8/1 (StanJames)

I always back this fellow, he's only a three year old but has already raced 19 times winning 5. Ran a career best in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood when coming 4th behind Borderlescott, didn't get a clean run and was about 8 lengths off the pace 1f out but flew home as he always does when he gets going. He ended up around 3/4 of a length behind but he gave away around 4 lengths trying to find a gap in the large field and that cost him the race in my opinion. That was an extremely impressive run in a tougher field than this and a repetition of that run will see him win this, especially if he doesn't end up tailed off until the final furlong, again.

He ran in the Group 1 Nunthorpe too but that was a level too much for him, he never traveled throughout and was dropped back to Listed level and ended up winning on similar ground to this. He beat Prohibit by a nose that day in a very good race and showed his true ability, which I think he can repeat now. He'll love this ground and has won off 95 on this ground in a 19 runner handicap at Newmarket and that Listed win last time out. There are many speedy sorts here and that is ideal for him, if he gets a good gallop he'll hopefully be finishing best of them all and should be able to reel them in IF he gets the gaps, it's a big if in a relatively large field but he has a grand draw and should be able to get a nice position in behind for a late run. The ground that Mister Hughie is able to make up in the final furlong in phenomenal and it's a pity he doesn't have the speed to go with the field over the first few furlongs or he'd be a lot more competitive at a higher level. Sam Hitchcott takes the ride and he has been on board him 4 times before with form reading 3-2-1-1. He knows how to get the best out of this fellow and if he finds the gaps at the right time I don't think he'll be out of the top 3 at least.

Sometimes he tends to travel very poorly during the race at all as he's a quirky sort but his run ahead of Prohibit suggests that he could of overcome those problems, surprisingly he traveled well throughout and when he found the gaps he took off and although the official margin was close I think he won quite comfortable and Hitchcott said he'd of won by 3 or 4 lengths with a clear passage. Certainly has the speed and ability to win this and has everything going for him. Sound draw, likely speed to suit, good ground is a plus and a jockey who knows how to ride him. Medium each way stakes at odds that are very generous in my opinion, 4/1 would be a fairer reflection of his chances and I expect he'll be backed. I think this one has a very solid chance and should go well at a track that will suit his style.

x PyRo

Ante-post selection now, as posted here! (click)

Same old crack, similar write up as there's not much else to say!

3:20 Ayr - Poet's Place - 5pts @ 7/1 (StanJames)

Lightly raced and highly progressive 5 year old who didn't see a race track until November '09 when he raced and won at Southwell winning by 4 lengths, he then won again at Southwell over 6f winning by the same margin again off a mark of 75. He had a 4 month break before return at Doncaster running off 87, looked a big threat but faded in the final furlong to come a close 5th with 3 of the 4 horses ahead of him winning since that race. He finished 4.5l behind Johnny Mudball next time out on rapidly fast ground which suited the Dascombe horse and didn't suit my selection at all. He was well clear of the rest of the field. Ran no race in a big Heritage Handicap after that coming 12th on rapid ground again and over 7f which doesn't suit at all.

The form of his next run and his last race is what I'm extremely impressed by, he absolutely trounced a very competitive field in a class 3 handicap at Haydock Park. He absolutely relished the softer ground that day and beat the highly progressive and soft ground specialist Harry Patch who has since won at Yarmouth beating a good horse in Mac's Power quite easily. Dimika (3rd) came out of that race and won in a 17 runner Heritage Handicap at Ripon on soft ground, the 6th place, Baby Strange came out and won at this course over 6f in a 19 runner field. The 9th place horse, Fathsta, won since and even the 14th placed horse, Definightly, came out and won on slower ground since too. The form of that race is rock solid and he won eased down and at a canter. Poet's Place was raised 10lbs for the run and it's more than fair in my opinion and there's a lot more to come from this fellow.

He went on to run in the Portland at Doncaster over 5f & 140yards, he was slowly into stride that day but made rapid headway through the field in the last couple of furlongs and got up in the final 50 yards to win going away from the rest, he proved that day that he handles relatively quick ground and he'll be getting similar ground today if things stay the same (Rain forecast though; which he wants). What impressed me was his turn of foot and how quickly he swallowed up the 2nd placed horse, Bajan Tryst, and started to pull away from him to win by half a length. He was 2l ahead of anything else and really showed the ability that he had, he looked in trouble at one stage and hit 100.0 in running but his undoubted class told in the end and there's still more to come from him in my opinion.

He's trained by my favourite trainer, David Barron, who certainly knows how to treat a horse and gets the best out of them. He has been patient with this fellow and it's coming to fruition now. He's extremely lightly raced with only 7 career starts (4 wins) and has a lot more to come, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a good Group race in the coming year or so. He has so much speed and cruises through his races to perfection. The extra half a furlong will suit him quite a lot and as long as the ground isn't rapidly fast he will have conditions perfect here at Ayr today, he's up 5lbs for his Portland win but I'm not sure that'll be enough to stop him and he could become the first horse since Lochsong to win the Portland/Ayr Gold Cup double. The draw has been the big talking point throughout the week with the high drawn horses consistently finishing ahead of the lower drawn horses and Poet's Place has been left with stall 12, I'm not really sure how to gauge what he'll do from there but it could be possible that he could get over to the stand side group where the speed has been all week and where the majority of Dandy Nicholls' speedsters are drawn and the likely front runner Johnny Mudball is positioned.

The Barron horse may end up being held up to run on late which worked last time out but it will be harder to maneuver him into position in such a big field but if the gaps appear at the right time he certainly has the turn of foot to cause a lot of bother to the opposing horses here and I believe that he's the best horse in the race by some way, he's open to a lot of improvement too and a mark of 101 is in no way beyond him. The only thing I can't figure out is what tactics will be used but I'm assuming he'll be held up on the back of a strong pace and hopefully the gaps open at the right time. David Barron has won this race before with the only favourite to win it in the last 25 years and that horse had a similar path to Poet's Place. Although he was more exposed and not open to as much improvement as my selection but he went off 3/1 favourite and duly obliged. Barron has had him aimed at this race all season and he usually has one brilliant handicapper every year, like he had with Sirvino in '09. I think Poet's Place can take this in his stride and the possibility of rain later on today will certainly help him even more, but if that doesn't come he should still handle the ground which will be relatively slow. He is, in my opinion, the best horse in the race and I think he'll put in a very brave effort to win this and I think he'll do it. He's entered in a Group 2 race next month also which shows how highly though of that he is. He has went from strength to strength this year and he's the one to beat and looks great value at 7/1 to me. Maximum stakes at an already advised price after he won the Portland, he's available at 15/2 to back now and with 5 places paid he could be an each way bet to nothing. If rain comes that price won't be around too long and I'd say David Barron will be getting involved in him at this price as he really fancies his chances and said he is working very well at home. Max bet on a horse who owes me nothing.

x PyRo

Going in time reverse now to the Ayr Silver Cup!

2:15 Ayr - Kellys Eye - 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Highly progressive 3 year old since joining the Brown yard after racing for Brain Smart as a two year old. He started this season off a mark of 72 and is now rated 94 which is tremendous progression. He placed on his first two efforts for his new yards then notched up a quick hat-trick at Ripon and was subsequently rated 96. He flopped on his last 3 runs, not beaten by far on any occasion but didn't get the result needed to seem "impressive" and I think that's why he's currently on offer at a crazy price of 33/1. He was hampered last time out at Ripon and finished 3l behind Gap Princess who is also in this race but I rate my selection as the better horse by a long way especially as the Harker horse is now 8lbs higher than that Ripon run.

The ground was very quick for Kellys Eye on the last 3 runs and with slower ground here I think he has a very good chance of getting one of the five places available at the very least. He's drawn second highest of the lot in stall 26 which is the perfect place to be and with lots of pace right beside him the race could end up being run exactly to suit. He likes to be raced tracking the leaders and he has the perfect position to attack from and with Joesph Henry drawn in stall 27 there will be lots of pace to track. This is a big step up in class for my selection but the ever reliable Steve Drowne takes the ride and he's a jockey I rate quite highly and he has a decent 10% strike rate around Ayr and a 25% strike rate for this trainer, although that's only 2 wins from 8 rides. The trainer has only visited Ayr 8 times, winning once and coming second no fewer than 5 times. Which is obviously impressive given that it's a small yard but they've had a successful 2010 and this would surely cap it off. The slower ground and great draw will give Kellys Eye a good chance of placing if he runs to ability and with 5 places paid the 33/1 looks massive. There could still be more to come from this Noverre gelding and on the back of a 47 day break he should be primed and ready for a big effort now that he's stepped up in class. 16/1 shot in my book so the 33/1 are absolutely huge and I just missed out on 40/1 as that has just been cut. Could cause a shock and outrun his price tag. Worth small each way stakes.

Total Staked - 15pts

Kod-box

Good luck with Poets tomorrow man...i didnt back it anti and missed the value (imo) tomorrow, Mudball won me alot of money already and form stands up so i think i'll be on that him again here.

x PyRo

Cheers Kod, still value IMO, but I'm in at 33's (In the local, crazy fools!) before he won at Haydock, in again at 10's and again at 7's.

Hope he wins. :pac:

Kod-box

Mudball is 7's now so im out of that too lol

hard race to call...Knot in wood 40.0 on betfair 7.6 the place looks good value to me.

ft9

Just got mister hughie at 15/2

Looks like there will be another gamble on Total Gallery in this race, who has disappointed on her last few outings while being heavily backed. Ive got a small ew on it 14/1 just in case todays the day

Best of luck today PyRo, and long may the form continue

Just got Poets Place @ 15/2

thesandeman

Well thats it. Done all of Pyros and all of Aidans picks. Reckon I need one winner and one place from the ten to start showing profit. Sounds easy :-D Time for bed now B-) Best of luck everybody.

almat1981

thesandeman wrote: »

Well thats it. Done all of Pyros and all of Aidans picks. Reckon I need one winner and one place from the ten to start showing profit. Sounds easy :-D Time for bed now B-) Best of luck everybody.

Doing the same bet today.

Xpyro thanks for chevron was gonna bet on courageous but you swayed me at the last min . :-)

naughto

Poets Place at 15/2 and Mister Hughie at 15/2 should be a goodday if/and when they come in

UrbanSea

Kod-box wrote: »

Good luck with Poets tomorrow man...i didnt back it anti and missed the value (imo) tomorrow, Mudball won me alot of money already and form stands up so i think i'll be on that him again here.

Sebastian sounded a bit scpetical yesterday in an interview on the horse,about the way it doesn't seem to finish it's races and thinks it'll be better as it matures.

thesandeman

I see Breakheart has gone into 8s. Wonder did a certain 'top tipster' mark it?

Juwwi

f norton eased off coming to the line should of 3rd or 4th at very least :mad::mad::mad: