PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo · 21-09-2010 4:35pm

Just saw the Jupiter Fidius race, he got a perfect run through, no idea what the commentators were on about, just wasn't good enough in the end.

hawaii501 · 21-09-2010 6:34pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Just saw the Jupiter Fidius race, he got a perfect run through, no idea what the commentators were on about, just wasn't good enough in the end.

Had Dream on Buddy for that race sick to say the least:(:(. I also had Duster but that just didn't seem good enough at all, Rough Rock was ran very well too. You win some lose:rolleyes::rolleyes:

ft9 · 21-09-2010 8:10pm

Pyro, I notice you have prices for your horses up very early, as in midnight or 1 o clock for the next days racing, Im just wondering what time bet365 usually put prices up as i wanted to back a horse that runs tomorrow but wont be around to do so, and dont wanna take sp....

PP usually dont have prices available untill about 10am

x PyRo · 21-09-2010 11:56pm

Bet365 do some early prices the night before, only on certain races. Other firms do too but only a small percentage of races are covered. You'll more than likely have to wait until the morning mate, don't take SP!

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 12:11am

Desert Icon's out again, similar write up as last time with stuff added, nothing else to say!

3:10 Goodwood - Desert Icon - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Been keeping an eye on this one of late as I feel a return to winning ways could be fairly soon. Likes to be ridden prominently (but was held up last time out) and usually stays on very well near the end of his races too which could come in very handy here with a couple of potential challengers for the lead, he doesn't need to get out in front and may just get a race run to suit here today. He came a gallant second on his penultimate start in a small field, they went a bit slow for his liking and he was pulling very hard and wasn't settling at all. He was probably 5th out of 6 coming into the final furlong but ran on gamely to finish second and a good length ahead of anything else. That wasn't the toughest of races at all and he should of been doing a lot better but despite his problems in running the style in which he ran on at the end despite running all over the place, pulling on the bit throughout and not getting a race run to suit.

Last time out he raced here over C&D, he was well punted from 10/1 into 9/2 and was held up instead of his usual prominent racing style, he struggled for racing room and finished like a train to come 3rd, he would of been closer had he not been stopped from getting a run. That was on soft ground which he seems to enjoy but he has had some decent runs on quicker ground which he will get here today. Usually a low draw is favoured here and he's drawn in stall 10 which will more than likely see him stay with his hold up tactics and with a clear run he will be a big threat as he has a good turn of foot for a 70 rated animal. I thought he needed 7f to be even more effective but connections are keeping him racing over 6f which I find interesting as the way he's finishing his races seems to suggest he's crying out for some extra distance but they know more than me.

Desert Icon has had a poor 2010 and wasn't really seeing out his races but it was a good sign to see him run on well last time out. At his peak he was previously rated 86 and runs here off 70 with a 7lb claimer also effectively giving him a mark of 63 to race off a featherweight 8st 4lbs which should surely help the cause. He is used to running in higher quality races than this and even came 2nd of 19 in a big Heritage Handicap at Newmarket last year, only beaten by a neck that day but it's a clear indication that when this horse wants to try he certainly has the ability to do it.

He hasn't won since '08 in his 2 year old days but surely a mark of 70 and a featherweight in a handicap like this should see him up his game sufficiently to challenge at least. The visor has been tried on him on the last 4 races he has run and seems to have him interested again and it's left on today, he hit 4.1 (From 22.21) in running in a good class 3 race at Newmarket when tried in the visor for the first time and seemed a big danger but faded near the end, wasn't so much of a danger last time out but stayed on which he didn't do when looking likely to place at least in that class 3 race. The bigger field will suit him perfectly and with 12 declared he should be able to get settled and his better performances have come in larger fields. He will get quick ground ground here which should be OK for him if he keeps seeing out his races as he has done of late.

There is plenty of decent form along the lines of this fellow and he has been unlucky in a few races and I'll be following him until he wins, he certainly has enough ability to pick up a race like this and has conditions to suit tomorrow and a good young 7lb claimer on board who has a 26% strike rate when riding for William Knight, which is obviously impressive. Knight's horses usually go well here and he has a decent 10% strike rate, sends only one here today and I think Desert Icon will be expected to go very close here. He's worth a small win bet with plenty of things going for him today and could be finding that spark returning, 9/2 looks generous to me based on his previous runs.

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 1:53am

3:45 Goodwood - Bullet Train - 2pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower)

Highly regarded colt who was sent off 13/2 for the Derby this year, he ran no sort of a race in that and ended up coming last. He hasn't progressed as expected and has put in two poor performances since Epsom, once when finishing 6/8 in the Group 2 King Edward Stakes at Ascot and again at Listed level when 4.5 lengths behind Whispering Gallery at Windsor when coming 5th of 7 runners. The Henry Cecil colt is now stepped back in trip to 1m 2f which should suit him better and the ground should be OK for him, I think the Goodwood course should suit his style and we may see him come back to something like the horse we watched win the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield. He won very easily that day and he was 4 lengths ahead of Hot Prospect who he opposes here and that horse is only 6/4 which is incredibly short considering he doesn't like the quicker ground, so he's certainly opposable in my opinion. Holberg is the other one who's extremely short here, he has never raced over this 10f trip and I'm not sure if it'll suit him at all, plus he has to give my selection 3lbs in weight, which obviously isn't a help. He's only 11/8 at the moment which is far to short against a one time highly fancied Derby runner.

Henry Cecil's horses usually do well around here and he has a fine 18% strike rate and with Cecil's yard in good knick over the last number of weeks I expect he'll have Bullet Train back in form for this race. Tom Queally takes the ride here and he has been on board my selection for all of his races so he should know how to get the most out of the son of Sadler's Wells. He should get a race run to suit with the filly, Pink Symphony, likely to set a steady gallop and with conditions and a course to suit I think that Bullet Train could prove to be the one to beat back over a trip that should be more to his liking. All in all I feel the 5/1 price is too big and I'd expect he'll go off around the 3/1 mark and he's worth a smallish win bet.

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 3:13am

On Bullet Train already myself, be surprised if he goes off at 5/1.

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 3:15am

Crazy price altogether, no way should he be that price. Into 9/2 with Powers now, we must of made the market move. :pac:

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 3:17am

Jaysus, was 11/2 a few hours ago too, 9/2 on betfair now aswell.

Crowie13 · 22-09-2010 9:42am

Desert Icon now 7/2 with Powers
Bullet Train now 4s with Powers

Somebody was reading your log again

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 3:47pm

Bullet Train no good

Holberg in the photo by the looks

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 3:48pm

Poor horse seems to have lost everything he had. I'd love to know what happened him.

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 3:51pm

Probably knew he was carrying my money lol

Had Kosta brava in Perth before that and he ran off the course ffs, followed the leader out.

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 3:54pm

Saw that earlier, awful luck! I wasn't on him but I was tempted, thank feck I didn't.

Can't wait for the weekend, I HATE midweek racing.

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 4:20pm

Hopefully Quelly can turn Make up for Bullet Train here with Heart of Hearts.

Kod-box · 22-09-2010 4:23pm

2nd

roll on the weekend as right.

UrbanSea · 22-09-2010 5:36pm

Unlucky Pyro,I fancied Bullet Train when he ran in the race before this one,but didn't back it today due to the **** he's gone to.

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 6:49pm

No idea what has gone wrong with him, I had such high hopes.

My bloody laptop charger is fecked so I've no idea if I'll be able to get online tonight for my selections or over the next few days either. From bad to worse!

coughlan08 · 22-09-2010 9:39pm

i see licence to till is racing tomo,,any interest in her, i know you backed her before anyway..

d-gal · 22-09-2010 10:26pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Saw that earlier, awful luck! I wasn't on him but I was tempted, thank feck I didn't.

Can't wait for the weekend, I HATE midweek racing.

Surprised by that, I'm the complete opposite, I make majority of my profit during the week and am lucky to come out evens on weekend betting.
You are much more likely to pull off a gamble during the week than the weekend, the few pro gamblers I know put majority of their work during the week; some don't even touch the weekend!

x PyRo · 22-09-2010 11:59pm

coughlan08 wrote: »

i see licence to till is racing tomo,,any interest in her, i know you backed her before anyway..

No interest in that horse over 10f, the trip is too far IMO, I've backed another in the race that I'll have posted up soon.

d-gal wrote: »

Surprised by that, I'm the complete opposite, I make majority of my profit during the week and am lucky to come out evens on weekend betting.
You are much more likely to pull off a gamble during the week than the weekend, the few pro gamblers I know put majority of their work during the week; some don't even touch the weekend!

I break even from Monday to Thursday and make big profits from Friday to Saturday, which is quite odd from what I hear! I'd rather avoid all weekday racing and just bet on the weekend stuff but I get bored and feel the need to study the cards during the week. :pac:

x PyRo · 23-09-2010 12:31am

4:00 Pontefract - Sirvino - 2pts @ 11/2 (PaddyPower)

Highly progressive 5 year old in 2009, winning 5 of 6 starts including the John Smith's Cup. Went from a mark of 65 to a high of 101 which is astounding progression. Has had three runs this season, a decent run in a Listed event and came 6th out of 18 at York off top weight on penultimate start. Didn't get the best of runs through that day and should be more suited to the Pontefract track here, also handles any ground, so no problems with the fast ground. He ran no sort of a race last time out, no excuses. He is now dropped 6lbs for that run and seems to have been given a chance by the handicapper. He's only 1lb higher than when winning the John Smith's Cup.

Lightly raced with only 13 career runs which is nothing considering he's five years old and he has won on 5 of those occasions. Should get a race run to suit and with Philip Makin on board he has a very capable jockey on top who has won on him 4 times. He knows how to get the best out of him and the smaller field should be a big plus for Sirvino. I think the Pontefract track should suit his style as it's a true test of stamina which he needs and the 1m 2f trip is ideal. There are two confirmed front runners here in Just Lille and Fastnet Storm. They should take the field along at a good clip and I expect the David Barron horse to be suited by this, assuming he's out to try! High Office is the current favourite at 2/1, he won easily by 7 lengths last time out but that was on his favoured soft ground and I'm not sure if the track and quick ground will suit him and at that price he's certainly opposable with a 6lb penalty, although Hanagan back on board is a big plus. Sirvino is very dangerous off this mark despite carrying top weight and should strip fitter for those three runs and looks value at 11/2, I had him as a 3/1 shot in my book and I expect he'll be backed tomorrow. He should put up a brave bid if he's able to run to his undoubted ability. Small/Medium sized bet at nice odds.

x PyRo · 23-09-2010 2:53am

Now back in time for the race before that selection!

3:30 Pontefract - Yurituni - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Fairly exposed 3 year old who is tough to win with but has a lot of ability when everything clicks. She has had 18 career runs with 2 wins and 4 second places. At the beginning of the year she was rated 84 by the handicapper, she's now running 9lb's lower off 75 with Kieren Fallon on board, which are both massive positives. She's running off the minimum trip now over a stamina testing course and I think that she has both the speed and stamina to make a big impression here. This race was won by a 3 year old last year and she's one of the 3 three year olds in the race, and quite possibly the best handicapped one too. She ran a big race at Epsom when finishing second off top weight, she should of won that race, hit 1.13 in running but was caught in the final strides. She ran no sort of a race next time out when finishing last of 10 at Bath but she was caught very wide and the jockey quit trying over 1f out and eased her right down and spared her a hard finish. That was a tougher race than this also, and I feel the 10/1 price is based on that run which wasn't a true reflection of her abilities.

Yurituni will today be partnered by Kieren Fallon which is very interesting. He doesn't often ride for Eve Johnson Houghton having only partnered up on 9 occasions with 2 wins (22%) and 3 places. Fallon also rides the Pontefract course excellently and has a strike rate of 21% and a £1 level stakes profit of £51. While Johnson-Houghton has only visited this course on 10 occasions with 3 winners (30%), 1 second and 3 third placed horses. Which all combined are highly impressive and suggest that Yurituni might be out for the win today. She also has blinkers on for the first time which should certainly help her knuckle down to the job at hand and I feel she's on an extremely dangerous mark at the moment. The ground is also ideal as she seems to relish the quick ground and stall 8 isn't a bad place to be over 5f. Fallon looks a highly interesting booking for a trainer who knows where to place her horses when they're out to do the business and I think the 10/1 available is highly generous, I'd have her at the head of the betting at around 6/1 which would be a fairer reflection of her chances and she's worth small/medium each way stakes at a tasty price. Funnily enough, the 12/1 shot, Poppy's Rose, struck me as a big danger just 1lb above her last winning mark and at a stamina testing course but I feel that with Fallon in the saddle my selection should show a lot more than she has in recent times, if all goes to plan.