PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

4:55 Newmarket - Waveband - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Fairly exposed 3 year old who is hard to catch right but has the ability on a going day to win a race of this kind. She is heavily raced with 21 career starts already with 3 wins, 3 seconds and 5 third places. Her last win came in a 6 runner race at Leicester last month when she made all to beat a couple of decent types quite easily. That was off a 4lb lower mark and despite bombing out a couple of times since I still think she has enough in her to put in a brave challenge here with the on fire Frankie Dettori on board her for the first time. He has a good 14% strike rate at this course and rides the track well, he's a big positive for this horse and has been riding brilliantly of late. He has won on 9 of his last 18 rides giving him an excellent 50% strike rate for the last 12 days or so. He comes to Newmarket today for 3 rides and each of them have excellent chances in my opinion. Waveband likes to try and make all most of the time and Dettori is a jockey I always love to see on a front runner. This filly seems to run poorly, then well, then poorly and then well again. She ran well on her penultimate start when just pipped by La Zamora on good to soft ground suggesting that she should have no problems with any ground here today. She bombed out last time out on even softer ground after traveling well for a long time. She shouldn't get ground too soft today and worst case scenario should be good to soft which she handled with ease. She should be battling it out for the lead with Ardent here but if she can get the better of her and grab the lead she'll be very hard to pass at a testing galloping track which should suit her perfectly. She has run very well at this course before too. 14/1 looks too big to me and she's an 8/1 shot in my book and I expect she should run well, hopefully.

Basq

Put a couple of quid on Waveband, but is Zaiden a non-runner?

thesandeman

Yip. The other one is out.

UrbanSea

Ya,Zaidan doesn't go. That Bell horse is a seriously expensive one to follow Pyro.

x PyRo

It absolutely bucketed down at Newmarket last night. Feck. Hopefully Waveband handles it.

x PyRo

Got the market spot on again, went off 8/1 but she was on the stands rail which was the worst spot to be. Never had a chance.

Amitola for my favourite trainer David Barron was my second choice. Went off at 14/1 too. Should of dutched them.

Tomorrow will hopefully be a good day.

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

Amitola for my favourite trainer David Barron was my second choice. Went off at 14/1 too. Should of dutched them.

25/1 on PaddyPower 1 minute before the off, seen that Spencer was riding and was tempted to throw a few euro on but ended up doing Waveband.:(

x PyRo

She was never 25/1 at any stage. The highest she went was 16's.

Waveband will win at a big price in her next few runs, it's just impossible to catch Johnston right.

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

She was never 25/1 at any stage. The highest she went was 16's.

Time for new specs so must have been the horse underneath I seen, literally just flicked through the card before the off.

x PyRo

Must of been a different race dude, nobody in that one went above 20's. Plus I doubt Powers would be generous enough to put any of them at 25/1. :pac:

I'm getting stuck into the cards now, it'll be a long long long long long night.

Bloody ground is scaring me though. Didn't expect it to be so soft today but it lashed down last night when everywhere was saying there'd be no rain at Newmarket. :mad: If I knew it was raining so heavily Amitola would of shot down in price on my book and became my selection.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

If I knew it was raining so heavily Amitola would of shot down in price on my book and became my selection.

When you say you do up your oWn books, how did you get into that and what things do you take into consideration?

x PyRo

I just done a lot of research into how to do one and started putting my selection process and new book making process together. It's just to find value and it's not the b-all and end all but comes in handy. I just use the simple things to tally up a horses chances, nothing out of the ordinary. Then it's just all maths after.

thesandeman

Admit it Pyro you just throw a dart at the newspaper :-D

x PyRo

Every time.

:pac:

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

I just done a lot of research into how to do one and started putting my selection process and new book making process together. It's just to find value and it's not the b-all and end all but comes in handy. I just use the simple things to tally up a horses chances, nothing out of the ordinary. Then it's just all maths after.

I like my arithmetical maths I do

Do you do the same with the footie?

PS. I'm loving my new phone :pac: I feel a bit bad since one lad donated money to charity but charity starts at home...

x PyRo

I do it but it's a lot tougher and I tend to get things quite wrong there. I rarely get the market too far wrong for the horses I select and most end up well punted, bar the odd few. It's just a guide for me and obviously if I think a horse has a good chance it'll be a lot shorter (in my book) than the bookies offer but I find it helpful in terms of the opposition. It's long and tedious but worth it.

Good stuff with the phone, it does indeed start at home. :pac: I'll be making a donation of my own towards the end of the year I'd imagine. To one of the horse charities.

L'prof

x PyRo wrote: »

I do it but it's a lot tougher and I tend to get things quite wrong there. I rarely get the market too far wrong for the horses I select and most end up well punted, bar the odd few. It's just a guide for me and obviously if I think a horse has a good chance it'll be a lot shorter (in my book) than the bookies offer but I find it helpful in terms of the opposition. It's long and tedious but worth it.

I might look into it, I'm a bit of a statto (in case you haven't noticed), it might just be something I'd be good at.

x PyRo

1:55 Newmarket - Cityscape - 2pts @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

Once again I'm selecting this big 4 year old colt, he was a very smart two and three year old, placing in Group 2 & 3 contests and was sent off 16/1 in the 2000 Guineas in which Sea The Stars won. He finished out the back of the field but was reported sore and wasn't seen for nearly a year. He came back to finish an excellent 4th in the Newbury Spring Cup off top weight. Next time out he was backed from evens into 4/9 in a Listed race, he finished a neck behind King Of Dixie mainly due to running all over the place which cost him a victory. He clearly has lots of ability and looks over priced considering his placings at Group level. Robert Charlton has hit a bit of form lately with 25% of his last 20 runners winning. Steve Drowne takes the ride today and he has been on this fine colt 6 times, winning twice and coming second 3 times. He clearly gets on well with this horse and I'm expecting a big run again.

Cityscape defied a 4 month absence to win nicely at Listed level last time out when finishing comfortably ahead of Secrecy and Awzaan (who he re-opposes today). With the ground possibly resembling something of a bog I'm expecting this big and powerful colt to put up a big effort. He came 2nd in a Group 3 on very testing ground last year over 7f, which didn't suit and won his maiden as a 2 year old on Good to Soft when scoring by 9 lengths. He always struck me as one who'd love a lot of cut in the ground and now he'll get it over his preferred trip. This is the course that he bombed out on in the 2000 Guineas but that wasn't anything to do with the course and over 1m here he should find everything suiting him perfectly. It's typically a galloping course which is ideal for his style and his big rangy physique should thoroughly enjoy the likely soft ground. Penitent is the big worry, he loves soft ground and has the excellent Murtagh on board but I think the potential slow gallop will suit my selection even more. I rate Cityscape as the better horse regardless and he's the 5/2 favourite in my book. He should come on for having that run 4 weeks ago and step up to the plate here. He's worth a small/medium bet and will hopefully follow up on his impressive win last time out.

gnolan

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm getting stuck into the cards now, it'll be a long long long long long night.

You think you've got a long night ahead of you? What about those of us who have to wait up to bet on your selections before the prices change in the morning?!

Nulty

I knew youd go for Cityscape. :pac:

He's a tempting price on the face of things and mostly the reason I'm not getting involved. Penitent for me there but not carrying any of my money.

JONJO THE MISER

Cityscape it is for me so, 100 on the nose.

x PyRo

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Cityscape it is for me so, 100 on the nose.

Best of luck dude, hopefully he does the business for both of us. I hope 100 isn't beyond your comfort zone because it's a tough race to win but I think he has a very good shout.

@ GNolan - It would be boring as hell if people actually waited up!

@ Nulty - You know me too well. :pac: Cityscape owes me nothing after last time out but hopefully will add more to the fund!

JONJO THE MISER

x PyRo wrote: »

Cityscape owes me nothing after last time out but hopefully will add more to the fund!

The gambling forum xmas party fund?

x PyRo

My bank balance. :pac:

turbobaby

x PyRo wrote: »

Best of luck dude, hopefully he does the business for both of us. I hope 100 isn't beyond your comfort zone because it's a tough race to win but I think he has a very good shout.

@ GNolan - It would be boring as hell if people actually waited up!

@ Nulty - You know me too well. :pac: Cityscape owes me nothing after last time out but hopefully will add more to the fund!

Hi Pyro, keep up the great posts. You should work in sales, because everytime you post up a selection with your comments I feel like it can't possibly lose (and then reality hits home a couple of minutes later and I realise there's still some risk!).

I just wanted to ask if you have you a staking plan? I am not asking how much you put on, but rather as your bank has increased, have your euros to points increased also?

In my opinion the 4 things needed to become a success at this game are discipline (i.e. take the losers as they come), a good staking plan, the best prices available and a lot of research. I didn't mention luck, as in my view this evens out in the long term...

x PyRo

Cheers TB, it's not the first time someone advised I should work in sales. :pac:

I do have a staking plan and it's just simply what I post here. 1pt = X Amount. I haven't changed the stakes at all, I put aside a quite sizable betting bank at the start and haven't budged the stakes since despite its rapid growth. I will change the stakes when and if I reach 500pts profit but until then it's all staying the same, in terms of euro to point.

The 4 things you've listed are exactly what's needed. I've all the time in the world for research so that's covered. I've improved my discipline 10-fold since starting to post all my bets online and the staking plan has worked perfectly. I always get the best prices too so I've most of the bases covered! Hopefully it continues and I continue to learn and get better. There's no such thing as perfection in this game but I strive to achieve it.

Cheers for the message.

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

My bank balance. :pac:

Ye aka the ....

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

The gambling forum xmas party fund?

x PyRo

Dream on babycakes. :pac:

x PyRo

Now for a risky one, I've no idea if she'll handle the ground but the price is too big.

2:30 Newmarket - Rimth - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Extremely fast and talented filly who was described as "the fastest filly I've ever trained" by her trainer Paul Cole. She has only had 4 runs to date, an impressive win in a maiden when running very green and powering on close home to win easily over 5f, then she finished 3rd in the Lowther Stakes at York when finishing a few lengths behind Hooray on very fast ground. That was a highly impressive run considering she wasn't seen for 3 months after her debut win and she ran quite green throughout. Next time out she finished 2nd in a Listed race at Salisbury when just edged out by Brevity who won by a nose. I wouldn't of classed Jamie Spencer's ride that day as very good and I think he cost her a win there with some odd tactics. She then ran in a Group 3 contest at Ayr 2 weeks ago, she was held up for a change (which I think is needed) but she ran so freely and pulled throughout which possibly cost her any chance of showing her true ability. When she did try to get through the gaps never opened and she got in several barging matches throughout and was eased inside the final half furlong, she was sent off as the well backed 11/8 favourite after being available at 5/2 early doors. Interestingly, Jamie Spencer isn't getting the leg up today and I think that's a good thing as I don't think he once gave her a good ride. William Buick gets the ride and he's a jockey I rate highly, he has had a good run of form this year and has been riding very well. He rides the course well too and has a decent 12% strike rate here and a 25% strike rate from his last 16 rides since the end of May. He should be a welcomed addition to this filly and simple, uncomplicated ride should be to her benefit.

Rimth has all the speed and ability in the world if she can learn to settle and with a patient ride here she might just get a race run to suit with a likely strong gallop pretty much assured. The only problem is the ground and the extreme amount of cut in it. I've no idea how she'll handle it but at these odds it's certainly worth the risk. She seems to have the action of a horse who might just take to it but it is a risk. If she does indeed take the the ground the 11/1 available is absolutely huge and I expect she'll be well backed if connections expect her to take to it. If not 11/1 is tiny and she hasn't a chance! It's a risk regardless but I'm having a small each way bet at tasty odds.

Kod-box

LOL i looked at these two horses about 3 hours ago and had a feeling you might pick them

Im on Cityscape already @ 5's so happy with that, i'll wait to see about Rimth, i quite like Khor Sheed aswell, so im torn.