PyRo's Horse Bets.

dennymin

missed the race, i know she didn't place or that but how'd it go?

x PyRo

Well that was an anti-climax. I haven't seen the race yet but the radio guys said he bumped into the Johnston horse when they were battling for the lead. I'll wait until I see the replay to make my verdict, thought he'd be very close but obviously not.

+5.75pts today.

Bank - 400.76pts (+300.76pts)

JONJO THE MISER

We are all quiet happy with our profits for today, cant win him all.

Basq

Congrats on breaking the 400pt barrier!

Superb stuff.

Crowie13

Good man again Pyro another day of profit, pity Dolphin Rock couldn't do it. Don't think he bumped into him when vying for the lead, think he was already gone at that stage IMO. Great day all the same, will have to check for your selections before playing football tomorrow

x PyRo

Didn't get bumped when trying to get the lead alright but got mauled a couple of furlongs out. That put paid to his challenge, wasn't helped by Highland Warrior flying over to the rail. Ah well, tomorrow's another day.

Cheers for the messages.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I knew youd go for Cityscape. :pac:

He's a tempting price on the face of things and mostly the reason I'm not getting involved. Penitent for me there but not carrying any of my money.

Hey Nulty you went against him last time too if I believe correctly. Haw haw.

x PyRo

Smokey Oakey best priced 40/1 now. Schwing.

Half the price that I put up now in places.

gnolan

Pyro, can you tell me where to find that meeting on oddschecker, can't seem to find it anywhere on the site? Already have him at 50/1 but it'd be nice to keep track

x PyRo

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2010-10-02-newmarket/15:40

That's the race mate.

gnolan

Ah cheers. For some reason i was searching around for totesport.com Cambridgeshire.

I was hoping you might be able to provide some input on the following. What do you think would be a good yet conservative €/pt value to go for with a €100 and €200 bankroll.

I know thats probably a difficult question to answer, but the idea would be to have some wiggle room in the event of an inevitable bad run.

x PyRo

That's a head scratcher alright!

Possibly 1% of your bank per point but whatever you're comfortable with. I'd regularly be staking a good percentage of my bank on weekends but a bad run could wipe you out handily. If it's for the horses I'd probably go slowly and increase it as the bank increases. It's a tough question though.

x PyRo

Risky horsey number one!

1:55 Newmarket - Blessed Biata - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

Well bred 2 year old who is closely related to five winners including German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino. She made her debut at Kempton over 6f, it took her quite a while to get used to her new surroundings and she didn't get going until late on. She was held up near the rear of the field and wasn't really travelling, she was then under pressure 2f out but eventually started to eat up the ground from just outside the 1f marker to fly home late to grab 4th place. That wasn't the strongest of maidens by any means but her run was quite eye catching and she should certainly come on in leaps and bounds for having had that experience. This is certainly a huge jump up from that class 4 maiden but if she proves as classy as some of her relatives she could just outrun her price tag and ground that may be to her liking due to her sires record of producing some decent soft ground animals. This may be a complete shot in the dark but she's now stepped up to 7f and on the back of a good gallop her impressive stamina should kick in and hopefully she could run on for a place, her action gave me the impression that the soft ground may prove to be an ideal surface for her and she has a good draw in stall 14.

This is a huge step up in class for Blessed Biata but I certainly expect she could be a decent sort next year and is worth keeping an eye on between now and then. She seems to have a good turn of foot and with an emphasis on stamina on the testing ground of a galloping track she may just have the ability to outrun her price tag in this big race. She's trained by the wonderful William Haggas who'd be prone to the odd big priced winner and I'd expect she'll be well primed for this after having her debut run 4 weeks ago. Haggas has a decent record at the course and Liam Jones takes the ride, he has a very impressive level stakes profit at this course and a good 14% strike rate and a 42% strike rate over this C&D, not that it really matters! He's a jockey I rate quite highly and if he can get this filly settled she could have an outside chance of grabbing a place. Together, from the AP O'Brien yard is certainly the one to beat but at 9/4 I think she's opposable despite her impressive run behind White Moonstone last time out, I also think she needs 1 mile at least and the drop back to 7f isn't ideal. I'm going to take a punt and back the Haggas filly at odds that are too big to me. She is a 16/1 shot in my book and should have a lot more to come. 40/1 is above and beyond what I'd expect to back her at and she's worth a small each way bet to cause a shock. Hopefully she doesn't come last.

Basq

Blessed Biata is 60/1 on Betfair.

x PyRo

Seen that alright, I just quote bookie prices because it's handy. :pac:

Basq

True.

I also loathe Betfair's shoddy e/w ("Win / Place Bet") system, but it's the only betting account I've money lying in.

x PyRo

2:25 Newmarket - Sir Reginald - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

One of the most exposed 2 year olds in this race with 6 career starts to daye but he certainly has some very good form lines. He was 2nd of 16 behind Elzaam on debut after being hampered at the start. Elzaam has since went on to place in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes when just a nose behind Strong Suit. He then flopped in the Group 2 July Stakes but it certainly reads as good form to me. My selection then got off the mark when winning a much easier maiden race at York despite running quite green but showed a good attitude in the process. His next race in Listed company is best passed over as they tried to make all with him but that failed badly and he finished well behind Al Aasifh on Good to Soft ground at Newbury over 6f. Sir Reginald then went on to come 3rd in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes when finishing 3 lengths behind Approve, he didn't get a clear run that day and flashed home late but his race was run by that stage but it was an impressive run none the less. That day he also finished ahead of the impressive Temple Meads who went on to win the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.

He ran a good race when 5th of 21 behind Wootton Bassett, he was possibly held too far off the pace that day and never got going until the final couple of furlongs, he pulled very hard throughout and that possibly cost him being even closer. It's still an impressive run on the face of it and a repetition of that run over this extra half furlong today should see him hit the place money at least. Sir Reginald finally got his step up in trip when upped to 7f for the Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy over the same C&D as today. He was badly hampered 2 out that day when trying to make his move but he still ran on very well gaining about 8 places in the final couple of furlongs but he had already given the shock 50/1 winner I Love Me a lead too far. He was closing until the line but had no chance with the impressive winner. That race was run on the back of a fast gallop and he settled better than usual, he's very likely to get a similarly run race today and that may just play into his hands, all going well. He has a wonderful turn of foot and a good attitude and I think the 12/1 available is massive and much better value in comparison to Formonsia, who is the 5/1 favourite. Declan McDonagh gets the ride aboard my selection once again, he was on board last time out and he's a jockey I rate highly. He doesn't ride for Richard Fahey too often and has a 28% strike rate when doing so and a few more placed efforts. Fahey has a very poor record at this course and has never had a 2 year old winner here out of 19 runs but I think that could change if things don't happen to fast for this nice looking colt. He certainly has the gears and stamina to go very close so the only question is the ground. His only previous try on anything with cut in it was that Listed race at Newbury, he was well beaten that day but I believe it was the tactics used rather than the horses abilities and I'm willing to chance my arm with him once again. He's closely related to Henrik and he was a classy 2 year old who finished 1/2 a length behind the wonderful Dubawi and then went on to finish 3.5 lengths behind Motivator on soft ground in the Racing Post Trophy. If he has also inherited any of that soft ground ability from his dam he should handle conditions today and with a draw in stall 17 he's perfectly positioned to get a nice sit in behind. All in all the 12's look to big to me and he was 7/1 co-favourite with the Johnston horse State Opera but that one steps down in trip and I'm not convinced that's ideal. My selection is also a better price so I'm selecting him and he's worth a small each way bet.

x PyRo

Cambridgeshire bets as posted here! (Click)

(The Cambridgeshire Heritage Handicap)

3:40 Newmarket - Capponi - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (StanJames)

Typical Mark Johnston improver who opened his account on debut over 1m at Lingfield and has since won 3 more times over a mile. He has won off mark of 89, 92 and 100, he's clearly improving at a rapid rate of knots and I wouldn't be surprised to see him add this race to his locker. He is lightly raced with only 7 career starts (4 wins) and could well have more to come. His only previous try over a trip this far was over 10f at Goodwood where he looked the likely winner a long way out but was outstayed, he hit 1.8 in running that day and really looked to have it in the bag but his stamina proved unable to cope with the demands of 10 furlongs and he is more suited to 1 mile. He gets 1 mile 1 furlong here today and I'm not 100% sure how that'll go for him in terms of staying but typically with Johnston horses I wouldn't be surprised if he went and outstayed them all!

Capponi is well drawn in stall 31 of 35, and high draws should be favoured here and with lots of pace drawn around and about him he should certainly get a race run to suit here. It will be his first time he is tested on soft ground but there is indications in his breeding that it shouldn't be too much of a concern. His Sire was effective on soft ground and he has the action of a horse who may just appreciate a bit of cut. All going well that shouldn't bother him too much. Interestingly Johnny Murtagh takes the ride, he's an unbelievably good jockey and even better on a prominent horse, in my opinion. He doesn't ride for Johnston too often but still has a wonderful level stakes profit and a fine 18% strike rate, it jumps up to 28% when he's on board the Johnston 3 year olds. He should be an ideal jockey for Capponi and if he can get him settled in behind the leaders he might have a good chance of going close in one of the few Handicaps that Mark Johnston has never won. 3 year olds have a good record in the race too and he receives a handy 4lb weight allowance for his age. Johnston went close with Tartan Gigha in this race last year when he was edged out by a nose and finished in 2nd place. Hopefully he's out to gain revenge for that defeat and Capponi is certainly his best chance here. I think he has a very good chance and the price is too good to turn down. Small each way bet at tasty odds.

Selection #2

I've also selected Smokey Oakey, he'll love the ground and despite not being in the best of form of late he certainly has enough abilities to go close here if feeling no ill effects of his pulling up last time out. His 4th place in the Lincoln back in March on soft ground suggested he still retains his ability on his day and he has everything ideal for himself today. He's well drawn in stall 30, the ground will be soft, there should be a good gallop to suit and he's very suited by this galloping track and has won over 1m 2f at this course which means his stamina should hold up here. Interestingly he's visored for the first time ever and that could well get him interested again. He gets on very well with Jimmy Quinn who's on board him today and he has won 3 times from 16 rides on him, including a win off 3lbs higher in the Lincoln in 2008. He's now 12lbs lower than when in the peak of his powers and whenever he turns up he's very dangerous. Everything is going for him and the 66/1 price that was available was far too big. He has now been backed in to 40/1 and is as low as 33's in places. I'd expect he'll go off even shorter and I had him as a 16/1 shot. He's worth a small each way bet at very tasty odds and he'll hopefully go well.

Smokey Oakey - .5pts e/w @ 66/1(StanJames)

x PyRo

Last selection.

3:20 Redcar - Krypton Factor - 2pts @ 9/1 (StanJames)

Highly progressive 2 year old from the Sir Mark Prescott yard, he has went from strength to strength this season since winning a maiden at Hamilton Park to contesting a Listed race, all in the space of 3 months. He has raced 9 times and is probably the most exposed out of this field but he's constantly improving and has went from an official rating of 76 to now being rated as a 99 animal. That's 23lbs worth of improvement and I don't think he's finished yet. He finished a neck behind Arctic Feeling last time out in a Listed contest over 5f at Ayr, he was just held off that day and ran on well suggesting this return to 6f is a positive. Conditions shouldn't be a problem today as the ground is currently Good (Good to Soft in places) which should be perfect for him. He has won with cut in the ground around the tricky track of Epsom and this flat surface at Redcar will suit him even more as he's a real speedball. He's tactically versatile and can be ridden to make all or held up in rear so I think whatever way they run this race it'll suit him but I think there should be a very fast gallop set which should play into his hands. He's constantly improving and there is certainly races of this nature in him in the not to distant future and hopefully he'll get his first Listed win today.

Seb Sanders takes the ride once again and he has been on board Krypton Factor on 6 occasions, winning 3 times with 2 2nd places also. The other was his debut in which he ran poorly. Sanders is a brilliant jockey and he has a good 20% strike rate when riding this course for Sir Mark Prescott. Prescott's animals have been in fine form over the last couple of months and they usually do well at Redcar whenever he visits here. He has a good 20% strike rate at this course from 139 runners and hasn't visited this course too often in the last number of years so it's interesting that he brings 3 here today. My selection is not well in at the weights with the favourite, Ladies Are Forever but that filly hasn't been seen for over 3 months and the yard has been very quiet in recent months so I think she's certainly opposable at 3/1 despite only having to carry 7st 12lbs and being extremely well in at the weights. This is a tough race to call with there being 23 runners currently but I think the Prescott horse looks very good value at 9/1 and I had him priced up as 11/2 clear second favourite. He should hopefully run well and prove his undoubted ability and move on to better things in 2011.

JONJO THE MISER

Have put small bets on the above, up well over 1k today from racing and poker but my head is fried:(.

x PyRo

Good luck JJ, my head is fried too. Time to hit the hey.

Another few were interesting me but I've enough selected at the moment.

*Just for interests sake*

3:00 Newmarket - Aviate - 14/1 (Bet365)

I had really high hopes for this filly, disappointed in the Oaks and wasn't great of reappearance. Drop down to 1m will suit but how she'll handle the ground is anyones guess.

4:15 Newmarket - Eucharist - 6.0 (Betfair)

Previous selection of mine when winning last time out. Classy and highly progressive filly, has won 4 of last 5 starts and has potential champion jockey Richard Hughes on board. Step up in trip is ideal, ground an unknown. Future Group performer possibly. The ground is putting me off though.

4:50 Newmarket - Carnaby Street - 8.4 (Betfair)

Another previous selection of mine, ran well last time out and was unlucky not to be closer or win. He's on a winnable mark and stepped back up to 7f which will help, tough race though but conditions to suit and Hughes on board. Lots of positives but I've too much staked to select him.

5:25 Newmarket - Satwa Moon - 9.8 (Betfair)

Long overdue a win, shaping with plenty of promise of late and should love the track. Conditions to suit and a great jockey on board. I'll be surprised if he doesn't go close. Doesn't look like the toughest of race but the 3 year olds are getting a lot of weight due to their age and that's enough to put me off but I'd say he'll run his race and first time blinkers might do the trick.

I'm not backing any of them, I just want to see how many of them will win now that I've left them alone. :pac:

naughto

got a tip for newmarket in the 4.15 elkmait ciaran fallon is riding him hes at 33/to 1


woops wrong form met to post in tip for a nag

8-10

x PyRo wrote: »

4:15 Newmarket - Eucharist - 6.0 (Betfair)

Previous selection of mine when winning last time out. Classy and highly progressive filly, has won 4 of last 5 starts and has potential champion jockey Richard Hughes on board. Step up in trip is ideal, ground an unknown. Future Group performer possibly. The ground is putting me off though.

Non-runner but I'll keep an eye on your others. Place-only on Carnaby Street above evens will probably be my bet.

naughto

6th ran a good race started at the back from the off and made it s way up through the field

Blessed Biata

x PyRo

She ran a stormer considering she ran green and hung left. Very fast finishing too, she'll make a good miler I'd say. Keep an eye on her.

x PyRo

Ah for fuck sake. Sir Reginald was mauled by two horses and lost his stride..

Not my day by the looks of it.

iggy

x PyRo wrote: »

Ah for fuck sake. Sir Reginald was mauled by two horses and lost his stride..

Not my day by the looks of it.

Smokey oakey will romp home

x PyRo

I love your optimism.

Every man and his dog seems to be talking up his chances. I'm thrilled with the 66's I got, 28's in places now!

x PyRo

It would of been handy if Sanders had a whip on Krypton Factor there, lost it early. Awful luck today.

UrbanSea

Don't think the whip would have made a whole lot of difference,there was no beating that favourite today she did it very nicely.