Are the USAs days numbered?

ascanbe

JohnMearsheimer wrote: »

I think we are going to see an increase in balancing behaviour. The nature of balancing is changing. Traditionally hard balancing is seen as using military means to balance another states power. Even though the US is in Iraq and Afghanistan at the moment I still don't think they can be matched militarily.

Now we have soft balancing, its more the use of diplomacy and economics to balance another state's power. Its not as overt as hard balancing. Middle Eastern oil is peaking but a lot of new big oil finds are coming out of Africa. China is in the process of sowing up this oil which in the longterm could undermine US energy security and its position in the world.

Diplomatically China and Africa are cosying up to each other. Some say China's relationship with Africa is why the US Africa Command is based in Germany and not in Africa. Many African countries won't host US troops and bases. This limits US power projection capabilites.

These are only small things but their effects (and effects of similar acts) will all add up over time. Thats the point of soft balancing. The US is not going to lose its superpower status anytime in the near future.

Just to finish, for tonight; that misses the point i was making.
The rot, i believe, has set in; the problem is internal, not from without.
Foreign policy is irrelevant.
The ill-fated Iraq war unveiled America, foreign policy wise; both in terms of its intentions and its limatations.
There is no going back from that fatal mistake, in my opinion. Which is especially sad, given that the US was at its peak, in terms of sympathy and support from much of the world, after 9/11.
That mistake has, i believe, fatally undermind the USA's place in the world and has ratcheted up the divisions within; you can already see the rise of the demagogues, Glenn Beck etc., who promise to save the common man from the 'evil' government.

JohnMearsheimer

ascanbe wrote: »

Just to finish, for tonight; that misses the point i was making.
The rot, i believe, has set in; the problem is internal, not from without.
Foreign policy is irrelevant.

ok fair enough, I wasn't taking a swing at you or anything. I was just taking my hint from the OP whose original post I gathered had a bit to do with foreign policy.

ynotdu

Hi and please excuse that i cannot multiquote.

I personally DO believe that the USA is on the decline and is not facing up to it.One poster gave it a decade,i would give it 30-50 years.I would not underestimate Russia with all its many Billionares or the shrewdness of Putin,but by itself i do not think it would ever become the 'Superpower'

China is i believe an unstoppable force though.Most of the Money the USA has borrowed has come from China{they by tradition are 'savers'not spenders and we have all seen how hard they are willing to work even in the west.}

The one Child policy on paper made a lot of sense as without it the population would have become so overwhelming China would have had to go to war to do a land-grab and feed its people.The horrible legacy of the policy was that a hugh amount of baby girls were drowned by their parents so they could try for a boy{better chance a boy would take care of them in their old age}

Democracy does not exist in China as We would understand it,so their leaders have the 'luxury' of long term stategys,not the next visit to a ballot box and in general most Chinese do think in the long term.

a small example:there is on the Moon Helioum 3,a compound that Scientists say properly harvested would power an entire city for a year by a tea-spoon worth.Going on for 2000 people have been in Space,yet only 4 of them have been Chinese(in two launchs,even so they have reached the point already that during the Space race both America&Soviets had launched hundreds of flights and dozens of Astronauts.I expect them to orbit the Moon on their next flight,they dont mind waiting,it could be tomorrow or in two years time!as i said they think long term.
America will have no way to get into Space except by hitching a lift from a Russian Soyuz by this time next year!!!!!!

I would say America's decline started when it had used more petrol/Gas than it had on its own soil which according to Al Gores movie 'inconveniant truth' happened in the 1970's!

Like other posters,i hope i am wrong as the term 'Leader of the free world 'would be a nonsense if it was China that was the leader.

as a slight aside,lots of rumours on the net that Googles threat to pull out of China is not google protecting 'human rights' or to stop spying on the west, rather it is a request to 'slow China down' by powerful people/force's in the west!

GuanYin

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

ynotdu

GuanYin wrote: »

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

Hi GuanYin i do not believe in 'popular misconceptions' not even about the US!

no disrespect intended but almost NO Nation or idea can be seen in isolation from Global cause and effect anymore:(
It will be very difficult for Mods/Admins to decide what is on or off topic in Politics as 'Globalisation'continues.
rgrds

Manic Moran

GuanYin wrote: »

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

In a topic about the end of US supremacy, I think it should be permissable to discuss the possible contendors to the title which would usurp the US in the position and their reasons as to why.

NTM

GuanYin

ynotdu wrote: »

It will be very difficult for Mods/Admins to decide what is on or off topic in Politics as 'Globalisation'continues.
rgrds

Manic Moran wrote: »

In a topic about the end of US supremacy, I think it should be permissable to discuss the possible contendors to the title which would usurp the US in the position and their reasons as to why.

NTM

Well, yes, discussing contenders to the throne would be very on topic, were we first to establish the nature, the how and the why of this supposed "fall of the empire".

Here, we're kinda glossing over the important point.

Black Swan

Is America (or more specifically the USA, because there are several countries in north, central, and south "America"), in decline or merely following a megatrend of transformation?

Historically there seems to have been a gradual sea change occurring in world markets over centuries, with the associated shift in power and influence traveling in a westerly direction, from the Mediterranean nations, to Atlantic nations, and now to those on the Pacific Rim? If this megatrend is a valid assumption, and should it continue, eventually there will be a shift in world dominance from the USA to Asia, and principally to the emergent PRC and India?

Interesting Megatrends Asia link: http://www.profitadvisors.com/megatrends.shtml

Then again there may be a competitive counter-megatrend occurring, with the formulation of competitive and world influential trading blocks? The EU has expanded to 25 nations (not counting affiliates), and North America is stumbling along with NAFTA, which might eventually emerge and transform into an Americas trading block, first unifying north, central, and south America for trade benefits as occurred during the early, formative stages of what is the EU today, later followed by the exercise of associated power and influence? A similar trade blocking may emerge and develop into what has been called the Asian Tigers, which in turn would compete with the EU and Americas trading blocks? With the emergence, growth, and development of these blocks, would the Middle East and Africa eventually follow suit?

Those of American (i.e., USA) nationalistic orientation (which could evidence ethnocentrism) may see either of these megatrend theories, should one or both emerge, as a threat to world dominance and national identity? Personally, I like the expansion and adoption of an early metaphor once used to describe an immigrant America as a "stew pot," where the carrots, celery, beef, and other contents retained some of their original form, while taking on the combined flavour of all. So rather than see this as the decline of the USA, I rather visualise it as contributing to a more diverse and delicious mixture.

rightwingdub

well if Obama continues his tax and spend policies America will be on the road to financial run befitting that of Argentina back in 2002 except with a far higher standard of living.

Don't write America off yet, it has recovered in the past throughout its history and it will recover again once it gets a Republican president...lol

Overheal

GuanYin I suspect it would be through financial ruin, not Cultural, Political or Miltary means.

Already according to some people I've talked to - I can dive for statistics in my Free Time at a later date - Maternity Wards are being dominated by Illegal Immigrants or Resident Aliens. Sidestep the Nationality Issue for a moment it becomes a question of Providing Healthcare for Latin America on our dollar.

Lets not even get into the question of what happens when the Cartels finally overthrow the Mexican Government. Which is more probable than it sounds. What would be our response? Lock the door? Go in and restore Democracy? Billions if not Trillions of Taxpayer Dollars? Make Mexico the 51st State? The US will spread itself a little too thin, get involved in too many Theatres and run itself further into bankruptcy. Or if it doesn't, places like Haiti and Mexico will be breeding grounds for drugs and gangs and pose a considerable national security risk regardless. So we'll get involved. And speaking of involved, the Terrorists really dont seem to take too kindly to our 'meddling' with Israel.

This and an emerging trend away from Petro Dollars are going to leave the US in a very diminished role if something doesn't give. Though it may just be inevitable. We need to Withdraw. Our current reach of Influence is unsustainable in the long run.

Overheal

Also, as to the question of whether Terrorists would leave us alone if we left the World alone - I guess I doubt it. But look at it this way: a bunch of Muslims hiding in caves have Kited the World's leading superpower into 2 Foreign Wars costing $1 trillion to date (PDF).

Against which, the Damage caused in the 9/11 Attack was well and truly just the tip of the iceberg.

Somewhere in a cave you can hear the cackle of a man on a Dialysis machine, proud of himself.

Stella777

Yes, the decline will be economic, but I don't think it will be the same for all parts of the country. I believe that certain regions, such as large swaths of the Southwest and California's Inland Empire , for example, might just be toast. For too long much economic activity in those areas has centered on the building and selling of houses. The days of local strawberry pickers being able to buy 400K homes with no money down are long gone. There are just too many people who have fallen for the idea of getting something for nothing. That whole party is over. What will they do now?

The optimist in me would like to believe that people will adapt and find new ways of living, but I worry about what will happen if they don't. The idea of massive numbers of angry people with nothing to lose in this country does scare me a bit.

As for China..I'm just not sure. I used to think of China as a place where the government firmly controlled all aspects of every citizen's life. After going there, though, I realized that their government is not always as in charge as they would like the outside world to believe. Yes, in Beijing proper they certainly run a tight ship. However, if you venture out to some of the provinces it's a different story. There are areas where it's almost like the Wild West. Beijing's arm doesn't seem to reach there. It appears to me that local people who aren't that different from warlords, but in suits, run the show exactly how they like. If you scratch the surface, and talk to people in China, they have their fair share of discontent. I wonder how long their central government can keep everything glued together.

Nodin

Overheal wrote: »

Also, as to the question of whether Terrorists would leave us alone if we left the World alone - I guess I doubt it. But look at it this way: a bunch of Muslims hiding in caves have Kited the World's leading superpower into 2 Foreign Wars costing $1 trillion to date (PDF).

Well one. The second was a 'good idea', apparently, made in the US.

SLUSK

I hope the welfare-warfare state collapses under its own weight and the states secede. I think Texas might break free within 20 years.

Anonymous1987

SLUSK wrote: »

I hope the welfare-warfare state collapses under its own weight and the states secede. I think Texas might break free within 20 years.

:rolleyes: Anything else, apocalypse maybe?

Flamed Diving

China = x^1/2