SINN FEIN Can Have it both ways on Policing.

lugha

Exile 1798 wrote: »

Nice change of tact.
Your's was a historical argument attempting to justify the denial of democratic will and the forced partition of Ireland.

If you think that was my argument you weren't paying attention. My primary problem was with the republican movement which declared that the army council of the IRA was the legitimate government of Ireland, despite it been repeatedly demonstrated that they did not have a mandate. I'm not surprised you missed that though because your pals here sought to steer the discussion well clear of that inconvenient little fact. Of course Northern Ireland failed the nationalist community for most of its existence, up until relatively recently in fact. And anybody half clued in should have learnt from that, that seeking a political solution which caters only for the larger community doesn't work.

dlofnep

lugha wrote: »

You won't be in charge lad!

I disagree!

donegalman1

The DUP's resistance to devolving Policing is a short term political strategy aimed at perserving Votes at an immenent Election. Recent events have shown that many of their members may just be looking out for themselves like most other politicans. Their strategy is playing into dissident hands, whilst also denying the ground that has been made by Sinn Fein.

Its a fail policy.

Sinn Fein are under pressure and many possibly under threat. The DUP seeking to exasberate this shows lack of leadership in so many ways and a game that presents many dangers for Northern Ireland policemen they proclaim to protect.

Devolving policing powers would wed Sinn Fein even more into the political and peaceful process. I belive there is clear water between Sinn Fein and the dissidents but these stalling will narrow many of their supporters gap perhaps.

I doubt it is again the Unionist agenda of keeping Catholics and Nationalist down, an agenda that does not have the support within Unionism or the UK it once had. Trying to out union jack other unionists won't do anything for unionists in reality

Time to finish the job at hand for a better Northern Ireland rather than setting up restaurants

FlutterinBantam

lugha wrote: »

You won't be in charge lad! That's another thing you lads don't realize. A UI will come, but your socialism utopia won't. Instead of Fianna Fail pissing on 26 counties, they'll be pissing on 32.
Be careful what you wish for.

Indeed, God forbid I am ever part of such a country,where the diligent and innovative toil from dawn to dusk to support a layer of stagnant ineptitude with their hand permanently held out for support and the so called leaders strangling the lifeblood out of those willing to contribute, whilst feeding indolence and state dependency.


Go h-an úfasach gan amhras.

An é sin an " ár lá" a bhfuil ag teacht?

In ainm Dhia"!!

Happy Monday

Exile 1798 wrote: »

If 42% of people in the Six Counties are Nationalists then surely the Unionist "sizeable minority principle" applies?

If SF thought that 42% of the electorate in the North would vote for a United Ireland they would have pushed for a border poll already.

But they know that if and when the poll comes middle class Catholics will not want to lose sterling, the NHS, the BBC and so on.

The vote would not be 58-42 - it would be 67-33 and would be put to bed for a further 25 years.

dlofnep

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

Indeed, God forbid I am ever part of such a country,where the diligent and innovative toil from dawn to dusk to support a layer of stagnant ineptitude with their hand permanently held out for support and the so called leaders strangling the lifeblood out of those willing to contribute, whilst feeding indolence and state dependency.

You understand that the idea of state-support, isn't for people to have it cosy without contribution, but to have a safety-net for people who have have on hard times, whether they have either lost their job or can't find work.

Your post smacks of elitest tripe. God forbid you're ever out of work and are forced to depend on the state.

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

Go h-an úfasach gan amhras.

An é sin an " ár lá" a bhfuil ag teacht?

In ainm Dhia"!!

Ní hea. Níl barúil ar bith agat cad atá i gceist, ar ndóigh. Agus más féidir leat - chuir aistriúchán in aice leis an phost. Sin iad na rialacha.

(Wrong. You don't have a clue what's involved. )

FlutterinBantam

dlofnep wrote: »

You understand that the idea of state-support, isn't for people to have it cosy without contribution, but to have a safety-net for people who have have on hard times, whether they have either lost their job or can't find work.

Your post smacks of elitest tripe. God forbid you're ever out of work and are forced to depend on the state.



Ní hea. Níl barúil ar bith agat cad atá i gceist, ar ndóigh. Agus más féidir leat - chuir aistriúchán in aice leis an phost. Sin iad na rialacha.

(Wrong. You don't have a clue what's involved. )

I have no problem supporting people who fall on hard times.

It's supporting the people who make state dependency and black economy working a way of life which bothers me.

looking at society today and anecdotally I would find it hard to pick out too many Shinners amongst the entrepreneurial classes or those who actually did something for themselves.

What seems to me to happen is they bed into state of semi state employment and start their posturing from there, happy in the knowlege that they can't be got rid of.


that's the way it seems to me.

dlofnep

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

I have no problem supporting people who fall on hard times.

By the sounds of your original post - you do.

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

looking at society today and anecdotally I would find it hard to pick out too many Shinners amongst the entrepreneurial classes or those who actually did something for themselves.

Probably because most Shinners are from working-class backgrounds, and understand the needs that working class families have. I do however take issue with your "did something for themselves" comment. Once again, more elitism from you. The only thing a person has to do is put food in a table for their family, and put a roof over their heads to do something for themselves.

POINTBREAK

Happy Monday wrote: »

If SF thought that 42% of the electorate in the North would vote for a United Ireland they would have pushed for a border poll already.

But they know that if and when the poll comes middle class Catholics will not want to lose sterling, the NHS, the BBC and so on.

The vote would not be 58-42 - it would be 67-33 and would be put to bed for a further 25 years.

The last poll I saw showed that only 19% of the population in the North considered themselves to be Nationalists, that looks a bit low. But SF in the last Assembly Election only had the support of about 16% of the electorate and the SDLP had just over 9% so their combined vote would only be 25% ish.

dlofnep

POINTBREAK wrote: »

The last poll I saw showed that only 19% of the population in the North considered themselves to be Nationalists, that looks a bit low. But SF in the last Assembly Election only had the support of about 16% of the electorate and the SDLP had just over 9% so their combined vote would only be 25% ish.

Sinn Féin had over 26% of the vote, and the SDLP had over 15%. The total nationalist vote was about 42% - not 25%. Then, not to mention - there are a huge portion of nationalists who do not vote - and support activist groups like éirígí.

POINTBREAK

dlofnep wrote: »

Sinn Féin had over 26% of the vote, and the SDLP had over 15%. The total nationalist vote was about 42% - not 25%. Then, not to mention - there are a huge portion of nationalists who do not vote - and support activist groups like éirígí.

The electorate is over 1.1 million, SF got 180,000 ish and the SDLP got 105,000. That is around 26% of the electorate.. 430,000 didn't vote, so I imagine they wouldn't have strong Nationalist views.
Don't forget about 30% of the workforce in NI work for the government and the UK government subsidise NI with a donation of over £7 billion a year.
We couldn't afford to throw the Brits OUT.

dlofnep

POINTBREAK wrote: »

The electorate is over 1.1 million, SF got 180,000 ish and the SDLP got 105,000. That is around 26% of the electorate..

Which doesn't say anything. The nationalist vote is 42% of those that did vote.

POINTBREAK wrote: »

430,000 didn't vote, so I imagine they wouldn't have strong Nationalist views.

Not every nationalist would vote for SF or the SDLP. There is a very sizable portion of the population that does not vote, that are nationalist - such as supports of Éirígí, the 32CSM and so on. Just because they did not vote, does not mean that they do not have nationalist views. I would argue that Unionism is pretty much covered by the electorate in terms of parties actively involved in politics, but nationalism however is not covered - as there are a rake of Anti-GFA nationalists who do not engage in politics. So there is more of an incentive for unionists to vote, as they have more options - but not for nationalists.

So in summary - those who did vote, 42% of them voted for nationalist parties.

POINTBREAK

If you think that 42% of the population would vote for a United Ireland you are going against all the Polls and all logic. You can't even say that everyone who votes for SF or the SDLP would vote for a UI. I personally know SF voters and SDLP voters who have no interest in a United Ireland. The economic factors do not exactly pass people by either. £7 billion is an awful lot of money to give up. Even apart from the £7 billion, 65% of the wealth in NI is created by the government. When Gerry Kelly was talking about UI recently his plan involved basically cutting jobs to save money. "We can make huge savings because we wouldn't need 2 health services 2 Police Services 2 Civil Services Fire servive etc etc and etc". The people here who actually work in all those jobs did make a note of it and came to the conclusion that a vote for a UI could well put you on the dole.
People in NI won't be voting for a UI in the foreseeable future.

POINTBREAK

dlofnep wrote: »

Which doesn't say anything. The nationalist vote is 42% of those that did vote.
Not every nationalist would vote for SF or the SDLP. There is a very sizable portion of the population that does not vote, that are nationalist - such as supports of Éirígí, the 32CSM and so on.

If they had any significant support why are they not putting up candidates in elections? With PR election in NI you can be elected to the Assembly with as little as 2200 votes.

POINTBREAK

donegalman1 wrote: »

The DUP's resistance to devolving Policing is a short term political strategy aimed at perserving Votes at an immenent Election. Recent events have shown that many of their members may just be looking out for themselves like most other politicans. Their strategy is playing into dissident hands, whilst also denying the ground that has been made by Sinn Fein.

Its a fail policy.

Good point. The feeling on the ground here is that all parties are afraid of an election. DUP for obvious reasons SF because they can't show anything from their stint in power sharing, SDLP not ready, and UUP are not organised at the minute. They all fear the electorate right now and that is why SF didn't pull the plug yet.

dlofnep

POINTBREAK wrote: »

If you think that 42% of the population would vote for a United Ireland you are going against all the Polls and all logic.

If someone wished to preserve the Union, they wouldn't vote for a nationalist party. In the same respect, someone voting for a Unionist party isn't doing so to end partition.

It has nothing to do with logic. Polls don't display anything. Nationalists actively boycott such polls on a number of occasions, and no data is available of where the polls are taken. The results of a poll in bogside are going to be polar-opposite to the results of a poll taking in east-belfast.

POINTBREAK wrote: »

You can't even say that everyone who votes for SF or the SDLP would vote for a UI.

Much like you can't say that everyone who votes for Unionist parties would oppose it?

POINTBREAK wrote: »

I personally know SF voters and SDLP voters who have no interest in a United Ireland.

Yeah, and I know DUP voters who wouldn't object to ending partition. If they truly wanted to preserve the Union, they would vote for Unionist parties. I don't see why your logic only applies to nationalists. Is it because, you only use your logic for when it suits you?

The economic factors do not exactly pass people by either. £7 billion is an awful lot of money to give up. Even apart from the £7 billion, 65% of the wealth in NI is created by the government.

Britain would be required to financially assist the transfer - given that they are to blame for partition. A 10-20 year window for transferring such powers is not an unfeasible scenario. It would be the right thing to do. Similar to what they are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan now.

The North would inevitably move from public sector reliance - and become a more business orientated economy, given that our corporate tax is much lower in the south. New business would be created, alleviating many dependencies on public sector work.

People in NI won't be voting for a UI in the foreseeable future.

I personally don't see it happening in the next 20 years, but within about 25 years - I think we'll see much more progress towards it, as more independence is afforded to the north through devolution of powers and more local accountability. It's not going to be a sudden change, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. It will be a gradual process, in which north and south will become more harmonized prior to unification.

Remember, since 1982 - the vote for nationalist parties has increased by over 13%. Consequently, the vote for unionist parties has decreased. Irish Unity will occur. I have no doubt in my mind about it. I think Britain would be happy to be shot of it at this point to be honest.

Also - if Scotland breaks away from the union, and there is a slight risk that it may within the next 10-15 years - it would send shockwaves through the Unionist community, many of which attribute their heritage to the unionist population of Scotland. It would no doubt weaken the Union to a point where questions would have to be asked.

POINTBREAK

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/UNINATID.html

Heres a more accurate Poll carried out by a reputable organisation.
24% Nationalist matches almost exactly what I said.
There really is little demand for a UI here and very little talk about it. Even from SF. For the DUP/TUV/UUP its still a bogeyman they use it to keep their supporters on board.
In 20-25 years time ,who knows?
I think the ROI also have to vote on UI and I haven't seen any figures for that. I don't think it can be safely assumed that it would have overwhelming support and it would depend very much on what was happening in NI.
The British Government would love to get out, no doubt about that.
See this also....... http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html
Notice that only 47% of Catholics want a United Ireland.

dlofnep

I contacted ARK to find out their locations for that poll about 2 years ago, and they never replied. As I've explained, polling in Bogside and polling in East Belfast will yield polar opposite results. I don't think it's a credible result, but if you are willing to find out where they sampled, and what percentage was sampled and how many people boycotted it, including the locations of them - then it would be worth discussing.

The stark reality of it is, the nationalist vote has risen drastically over the past 3 decades, and Sinn Féin's support has gone up by 10% since the GFA - that's a HUGE rise in support. Would people really object to Irish Unity if they voted for nationalist parties? Highly doubtful.

As for how people view unity in the south, the last poll that I can remember was the Sunday Business Post which had about 80% in favour - http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2006/04/02/story13121.asp

Once again, we don't get to view who was polled, or where. So it's hard to judge. I would hazard a guess that the majority would favour Irish Unity.

POINTBREAK

dlofnep wrote: »

I contacted ARK to find out their locations for that poll about 2 years ago, and they never replied. As I've explained, polling in Bogside and polling in East Belfast will yield polar opposite results. I don't think it's a credible result, but if you are willing to find out where they sampled, and what percentage was sampled and how many people boycotted it, including the locations of them - then it would be worth discussing.

The stark reality of it is, the nationalist vote has risen drastically over the past 3 decades, and Sinn Féin's support has gone up by 10% since the GFA - that's a HUGE rise in support. Would people really object to Irish Unity if they voted for nationalist parties? Highly doubtful.

As for how people view unity in the south, the last poll that I can remember was the Sunday Business Post which had about 80% in favour - http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2006/04/02/story13121.asp

Once again, we don't get to view who was polled, or where. So it's hard to judge. I would hazard a guess that the majority would favour Irish Unity.

The info on the poll is published in the technical notes. Just click on that.
Sinn Feins support actually dropped slightly in the Euro election in NI and we don't actually know what it is now until we have an election. Mary Lou actually polled less votes and lost her seat in the ROI.
Why would someone who wanted a UI boycott a poll on it?

POINTBREAK

You said...
The stark reality of it is, the nationalist vote has risen drastically over the past 3 decades, and Sinn Féin's support has gone up by 10% since the GFA - that's a HUGE rise in support.

That assumes that everyone who votes SF or SDLP would vote for a United Ireland. I know that is not the case because I know people who vote for both parties. Sinn Feins vote increased because the IRA gave up their arms, not because a lot of people suddenly wanted a UI.People here vote for whoever they think will put up the best show against the Unionists.

dlofnep

POINTBREAK wrote: »

You said...
The stark reality of it is, the nationalist vote has risen drastically over the past 3 decades, and Sinn Féin's support has gone up by 10% since the GFA - that's a HUGE rise in support.

That assumes that everyone who votes SF or SDLP would vote for a United Ireland. I know that is not the case because I know people who vote for both parties. Sinn Feins vote increased because the IRA gave up their arms, not because a lot of people suddenly wanted a UI.People here vote for whoever they think will put up the best show against the Unionists.

The nationalist vote itself has increased by 13% overall. My opinion is that there is increasing support for nationalist ideologies - the main of which is ending partition of Ireland.

I don't care if you know people who vote for Sinn Féin that don't support Irish Unity. I've yet to meet one. Perhaps next time you'll ask them what their motives are for doing so, and why they do not vote for Unionist parties if they support the Union. I mean, there are moderate Unionist alternatives for them like the Alliance party. So why would they vote for Sinn Féin?

I attribute the rise in 13% support for nationalist parties as a indication that more and more people favour Irish Unity. You don't. That's fine. This is all purely subjective at the end of the day. I'm not interested in rattling on about what we feel subjectively for page after page.

dlofnep

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Why would someone who wanted a UI boycott a poll on it?

Who knows? It's occured on many an occasion: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/ref1973.htm

lugha

dlofnep wrote: »

I personally don't see it happening in the next 20 years, but within about 25 years - I think we'll see much more progress towards it, as more independence is afforded to the north through devolution of powers and more local accountability. It's not going to be a sudden change, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. It will be a gradual process, in which north and south will become more harmonized prior to unification.

You lads will have to move a bit quicker than that if you want your UI. :P
Twenty years? We'll be part of the US of E by then.

POINTBREAK

dlofnep wrote: »

Who knows? It's occured on many an occasion: http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/ref1973.htm

I don't even need to open that to know it refers to the referendum. To be fair, its a lot different from a poll. A Poll isn't legally binding for one, and is a good way to show you have a case without committing to anything. If you are saying that most people wouldn't answer that poll question you need to show a reason why. If you can't then are open to speculation as to why they wouldn't answer. Or in other words motive.

POINTBREAK

dlofnep wrote: »

The nationalist vote itself has increased by 13% overall. My opinion is that there is increasing support for nationalist ideologies - the main of which is ending partition of Ireland.

So why would they vote for Sinn Féin? Already answered that.

I attribute the rise in 13% link please support for nationalist parties as a indication that more and more people favour Irish Unity. You don't. That's fine. This is all purely subjective at the end of the day. I'm not interested in rattling on about what we feel subjectively for page after page.

I am giving evidence that supports my view. It looks like you are dismissing it because you don't like it. I've given links to polls and a different interpretation to your assertation that 42% favour a UI based on election results.

DoireNod

Irish unity is one of the driving agendas behind both the SDLP and Sinn Féin's ideologies. By voting for them, people are automatically affirming their support for Irish unity. If they don't support Irish unity they should vote for unionist parties. It's really that simple.

What we don't know for sure is whether or not those nationalist voters will vote in favour of a re-united Ireland.

POINTBREAK

DoireNod wrote: »

Irish unity is one of the driving agendas behind both the SDLP and Sinn Féin's ideologies. By voting for them, people are automatically affirming their support for Irish unity. If they don't support Irish unity they should vote for unionist parties. It's really that simple.

What we don't know for sure is whether or not those nationalist voters will vote in favour of a re-united Ireland.

Its really not that simple. I actually live in NI and have done most of my life and am going to claim local knowledge. I disputed the figure of 42% in favour because it doesn't stack up with what the polls say and what the election results say.

DoireNod

POINTBREAK wrote: »

Its really not that simple. I actually live in NI and have done most of my life and am going to claim local knowledge. I disputed the figure of 42% in favour because it doesn't stack up with what the polls say and what the election results say.

I too have lived in the North most of my life, so are you suggesting your 'local knowledge' is somewhat more credible than mine? The point is that by voting for a party which promotes Irish reunification, you are supporting the notion of Irish reunification; there is no escaping the fact.

Of course, some such voters might not feel that now or a few years will be the right time for it but they are still obvious supporters of the notion if they actively support a nationalist party by voting for them. I personally don't know of any Sinn Féin or SDLP supporters (or any nationalists and republicans for that matter) who see the aim of their respective parties to be retention of the union with the UK in any form. Perhaps you do. Out of interest, how many of your nationalist friends did you say told you they opposed Irish re-unification?

Also, in the polls you've presented, I'd say there would have been some nationalists who expressed a favour for devolution with a view to Irish re-unification, rather than devolution with a view to remaining part of the UK. The poll does not give this option either.

lugha

DoireNod wrote: »

Irish unity is one of the driving agendas behind both the SDLP and Sinn Féin's ideologies. By voting for them, people are automatically affirming their support for Irish unity. If they don't support Irish unity they should vote for unionist parties. It's really that simple.

That may not necessarily be true. It is unlikely that any party will reflect your political outlook entirely. You simply vote for whoever comes closest.
After all, all the main political parties in the republic support Irish reunification but it is clear that there is a sizable minority of people here who do not, but who out of necessity, vote for one of these parties.

K-9

DoireNod wrote: »

I too have lived in the North most of my life, so are you suggesting your 'local knowledge' is somewhat more credible than mine? The point is that by voting for a party which promotes Irish reunification, you are supporting the notion of Irish reunification; there is no escaping the fact.

Of course, some such voters might not feel that now or a few years will be the right time for it but they are still obvious supporters of the notion if they actively support a nationalist party by voting for them. I personally don't know of any Sinn Féin or SDLP supporters (or any nationalists and republicans for that matter) who see the aim of their respective parties to be retention of the union with the UK in any form. Perhaps you do. Out of interest, how many of your nationalist friends did you say told you they opposed Irish re-unification?

Also, in the polls you've presented, I'd say there would have been some nationalists who expressed a favour for devolution with a view to Irish re-unification, rather than devolution with a view to remaining part of the UK. The poll does not give this option either.

Ach, that's a very close minded way of looking at it. Sure Hendron had Unionist votes to help him beat Adams, hardly supporters of a United Ireland now.

Really, your argument would have more credence if there were more options on both sides of the divide. There are only 2 Nationalist party options, with a few fringe groups.

An SDLP voter who would be at ease with a devolved assembly and not that pushed on Reunification, could vote SF just to keep a Nationalist seat. You just assume he wants a United Ireland.