TONIGHT With Vincent Browne

That_Guy

It's like the last day of school or something tonight. Mad.

JonathanAnon

Would have made a lot more sense to put them in the same chairs as last year... That Migrant's Rights wan is a pain in the a*se

ArtSmart

interesting stuff bout the banks there.

fred funk }{

This bank sh'te gets worse every day. Those bankers really are something else!!

Lapin

JonathanAnon wrote: »

Would have made a lot more sense to put them in the same chairs as last year... That Migrant's Rights wan is a pain in the a*se

I was just thinking the same thing.

About both of those points.

take everything

If i understand it correctly, Matt Cooper says default hasn't happened in a 1st world country since the 1940s.
I couldn't help thinking what a fcuk up of a state.
Utterly embarrassing.

fred funk }{

take everything wrote: »

If i understand it correctly, Matt Cooper says default hasn't happened in a 1st world country since the 1940s.
I couldn't help thinking what a fcuk up of a state.
Utterly embarrassing.

I'd Argentina not a 1st world country?

Elmo

Koloman wrote: »

A panel to predict what's in store for 2011.

I didn't get all the questions.

Seats in the Dail
Labour - 56
FG - 50
FF - 34
SF - 16 (Inc. Gerry Adams Louth TD)
ULA - 5
O/I - 5 (T. Sargent, M O'Sullivan, F. McGrath, Healy Rea Jr, M. Lowery) << Little too specific.

Government
Taoiseach - Eamon Gilmore
Finance Minister - Michael Noonan

I give it 2 years, when FG will drop out, they'll turn to FF as Labour turned to them in 1994, but FF will look for an Election.

Other option for government is FG/FF however I think FF will want to "regroup". If it does happen in 2011:-

Enda Kenny as Taoiseach, Micheal Noonan as Finance Minister, Tánaiste AND Min for Foreign Affairs Mary Hanafin. (It will be dressed up as a "National Government" with FF ministers such as "Culture and Sport" and "Environment").

No Default. Greece will go first, if any Euro state does. The Euro will survive unless Greece defaults, certainly 2012 will see some states leave the common currency or a 2 tiered currency in a last ditch attempt to help it survive.

FF Leader Mary Hanafin.

No Civil Unrest.

Oh and that all will be right with the world. Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

Havermeyer

Koloman wrote: »

A panel to predict what's in store for 2011.

One of the panelists went as far as predicting that Eamon Gilmore will be taoiseach, and Joan Burton will be finance minister.

Clearly an extremely optomistic/delusional Labour fan.

JonathanAnon

nummnutts wrote: »

One of the panelists went as far as predicting that Eamon Gilmore will be taoiseach, and Joan Burton will be finance minister.
Clearly an extremely optomistic/delusional Labour fan.

Yeah Vincent pushed her on it saying that it wasnt feasible to think that one of the parties would take both top positions..

Elmo

JonathanAnon wrote: »

Yeah Vincent pushed her on it saying that it wasnt feasible to think that one of the parties would take both top positions..

She did reply that everyone else on the panel were living in their own worlds so why couldn't she

steelcityblues

Elmo wrote: »

I didn't get all the questions.

Seats in the Dail
Labour - 56
FG - 50
FF - 34
SF - 16 (Inc. Gerry Adams Louth TD)
ULA - 5
O/I - 5 (T. Sargent, M O'Sullivan, F. McGrath, Healy Rea Jr, M. Lowery) << Little too specific.

Government
Taoiseach - Eamon Gilmore
Finance Minister - Michael Noonan

I give it 2 years, when FG will drop out, they'll turn to FF as Labour turned to them in 1994, but FF will look for an Election.

Other option for government is FG/FF however I think FF will want to "regroup". If it does happen in 2011:-

Enda Kenny as Taoiseach, Micheal Noonan as Finance Minister, Tánaiste AND Min for Foreign Affairs Mary Hanafin. (It will be dressed up as a "National Government" with FF ministers such as "Culture and Sport" and "Environment").

No Default. Greece will go first, if any Euro state does. The Euro will survive unless Greece defaults, certainly 2012 will see some states leave the common currency or a 2 tiered currency in a last ditch attempt to help it survive.

FF Leader Mary Hanafin.

No Civil Unrest.

Oh and that all will be right with the world. Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

No way will Labour have more seats than FG. More people are less thrilled with Gilmore now than they were 12 months ago too! FG have much stronger organisation nationwide too.

16 is too much for SF next time around, but they should gain seats.

I think Sargent is a goner too like the rest of the Greens.

If FF are part of the next government, I will be leaving on a jet plane

KerranJast

steelcityblues wrote: »

No way will Labour have more seats than FG. More people are less thrilled with Gilmore now than they were 12 months ago too! FG have much stronger organisation nationwide too.

16 is too much for SF next time around, but they should gain seats.

I think Sargent is a goner too like the rest of the Greens.

If FF are part of the next government, I will be leaving on a jet plane

The only possible way I could see FF being involved in the next Government is if Labour push for too much in any Coalition talks with FG. FG could then approach FF to support them as a minority Govt rather than a Coalition.

Elmo

steelcityblues wrote: »

No way will Labour have more seats than FG. More people are less thrilled with Gilmore now than they were 12 months ago too! FG have much stronger organisation nationwide too.

16 is too much for SF next time around, but they should gain seats.

I think Sargent is a goner too like the rest of the Greens.

If FF are part of the next government, I will be leaving on a jet plane

Based on Transfers from FF, FG, SF, ULA and Others, I believe that Labour will make the necessary gains to come out a head of both FG and FF. Again from transfers from some FF, Labour, ULA and Others SF can expect gains. (Also both Labour and SF may get votes from The Green Party fallout, as they stay steady on 3% in the polls).

Sargent is quiet well respected in his constituency and topped the poll in the last GE, I don't expect he will top the poll but he will be in a position to retain his seat. Why do you expect Mary Harney to be the other Indo?

steelcityblues

Elmo wrote: »

Based on Transfers from FF, FG, SF, ULA and Others, I believe that Labour will make the necessary gains to come out a head of both FG and FF. Again from transfers from some FF, SF, ULA and Others SF can expect gains. (Also both Labour and SF may get votes from The Green Party fallout, as they stay steady on 3% in the polls).

Sargent is quiet well respected in his constituency and topped the poll in the last GE, I don't expect he will top the poll but he will be in a position to retain his seat. Why do you expect Mary Harney to be the other Indo?

You could fit most local Labour members into a phonebox in places like Donegal, Mayo, Cavan/Monaghan, Roscommon and you expect them to overtake FG next time around? They have not been transfer friendly in these constituencies before, and it won't radically change next time around.

The underwhelming performance of McBrearty in Donegal SW is just the
start of Gilmore overestimating his party's chances.

I can only see Sargent survive due to a generous number of transfers from the first eliminated FFer. Voters for other parties won't touch him.

Never said anything about Harney. She might retire before the election, and certainly won't be missed by me.

Elmo

steelcityblues wrote: »

You could fit most local Labour members into a phonebox in places like Donegal, Mayo, Cavan/Monaghan, Roscommon and you expect them to overtake FG next time around? They have not been transfer friendly in these constituencies before, and it won't radically change next time around.

The underwehelming performance of McBrearty in Donegal SW is just the
start of Gilmore overestimating his party's chances.

I can only see Sargent survive due to a generous number of transfers from the first eliminated FFer. Voters for other parties won't touch him.

Never said anything about Harney. She might retire before the election, and certainly won't be missed by me.

I know but often we blame the Green Party when in reality much of the mess was cause by 2 successive FF/PD governments. TBH The Green's in coalition with FG, Labour and SF would be in the same position, in actual fact such a government would lead to a FF government next time round. When your in government when times are hard as a small party be prepared that you might not see the next election.

Sargent remember stood up in a council meeting asking who else had been offered money from developers. Something his fellow councilors had him thrown out for. He didn't need transfers in the last GE, those that voted for him may possibly give him a No. 2 or 3. Labour and The Socialist will benefit from his downfall. As you say few FFer will transfer to the Greens, I remember asking that in the last election, when an FFer asked me to transfer to them, are you even expecting PD voters to transfer to FF when FF voters don't transfer?

I expect Labour to do well on transfers and defecting FF voters in areas where they have not preformed well before. Also Labour should not go in thinking that they won't do well because of a poor showing in a by-election bound to be won by SF. FF could easily turn out to be the largest party in the state if you went on that by-election.

Elmo

Come on lets here others and their predictions for 2011

Seats in the Dail
Labour -
FG -
FF -
SF -
O/I -

Government
Taoiseach -
Finance Minister -

Why?
How long will it last?

Other option for government:-

Why?
How long will it last?


Ireland Defaulting: YES/NO
Euro lasting: YES/NO
Civil Unrest: YES/NO

FF Leader -

steelcityblues

My predictions for 2011

Seats in the Dail
Labour - 41
FG - 68
FF - 35
SF - 9
O/I - 13

Government FG/LAB coalition
Taoiseach - Enda Kenny
Finance Minister - Joan Burton

Why? Both FG/LAB have an over 100 majority
How long will it last? 4 years

Other option for government:- 'Emergency' group of all parties

Why? 'In the National Interest' guff
How long will it last? 2 years


Ireland Defaulting: YES/NO: FG/LAB are just as anti-constitutional sadly
Euro lasting: YES/NO: Brussels won't make us pull out easily
Civil Unrest: YES/NO Protest numbers will grow

FF Leader - Michael Martin (after election)

PJTierney

Somebody explain this to me: What happens if Ireland defaults? It's not like the IMF can re-possess Cork city or something..

JonathanAnon

PJTierney wrote: »

Somebody explain this to me: What happens if Ireland defaults? It's not like the IMF can re-possess Cork city or something..

well i guess the main problem is that we need to borrow 19 Billion this year, and something like 13 Billion next year.. If we default, we may not have anybody to give us this 13 Billion if they believe that we could default on future loans... If we are down 13 Billion, public servants wont be paid, no money to run hospitals etc etc..

telekon

My predictions for 2011

Seats in the Dail
Labour -39
FG - 67
FF - 37
SF - 12
O/I - 11

Government FG/LAB coalition
Taoiseach - Enda Kenny
Finance Minister - Ruairi Quinn

Why? Both FG/LAB have an over 100 majority
How long will it last? 4 years

Other option for government:- Minority FG government with FF backing - "Tallaght Strategy 2"

Why? To keep Labour and its dodgy union leanings from power
How long will it last? 3 years


Ireland Defaulting: NO
Euro lasting: YES
Civil Unrest: NO irish will be as apathetic as ever.

FF Leader - Michael Martin

ArtSmart

I wonder if i'm losing my intelligence altogether.

i listened to Lorna Siggins* talk about Shell and not a single word of clarity or opinion did she offer. she'd make Bertie look like a loose talking maniac

unbelievable.

* she wrote a book about the whole thing.
a/ yes, i'm drunk

b/ there's careful not to libel / slander etc and there's nonsense

hotmail.com

Pretty pathetic "media awards" tonight. I'm not even sure who won.

steelcityblues

I liked Sinead Desmond. Smart reasons given for her nominations, but yet wasn't as po-faced as the other contributors.

JonathanAnon

hotmail.com wrote: »

Pretty pathetic "media awards" tonight. I'm not even sure who won.

He gave paper of the year to The Star (i.e. his old pal Ger Colleran)... Didnt hear him mention Tubridy's book .. I dont think they get on....

But I do agree.. it was a waste of time when there was so much more important things going on today in The Dáil..

SB-08

Why are Ruairi Quinn and Pat Rabbitte being suggested as Finance Minister next year? Surely if Labour get this it will go to Joan Burton? I would much prefer someone competent like Quinnn who has experience but why would they not give it to Burton seeing as she is their Finance Spokesperson already?

One of the reasons I will probably vote for FG is due to Noonan being so impressive so if Burton is the MoF ahead of him it will be a travesty. I'd rather Gilmore took the reigns instead of Kenny if it means Noonan could be the MoF. It's a far more important job now.

mademan

agree burton would be good well able to handle herself and proving very popular and interesring to see an attractive woman on front bench for a change

DeepBlue

mademan wrote: »

agree burton would be good well able to handle herself and proving very popular and interesring to see an attractive woman on front bench for a change

Are you saying the three Marys (Coughlan, Harney and Hannafin) are unattractive? :eek: :pac:

JonathanAnon

I think it's pretty pointless Vinny having media awards, and even more pointless if he's just gonna give all the awards to his friends..

Fintan O'Toole contributes to the show...
David McWilliams also....
Ger Colleran covered vincent on the show when he was off and is frequent contributor...

That photo is excellent though..

AOwannabe

JonathanAnon wrote: »

That photo is excellent though..

The one with Ajai Chopra and the beggar?
I thought it was a very lazy photo, some photographer just hanging around beside a beggar thinking "Oooh, the symbolism of Mr Chopra walking past a beggar, ka-ching"