UK Met Office reconsidering Long Range Forecasts

Leeside

UK met office are obviously under a lot of pressure in view of their off the mark long range forecasts. It was bad enough getting the "barbecue" summer wrong but the recent cold spell was also not forecast.

It just goes to show how unscientific the current long range forecast models must be.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8462890.stm

Turtwig

They need to keep going, but stop making such PR prediction blunders. It's experimental, no need to go any further than that by making public predictions.

Deep Easterly

I think it is very brave of them to admit that their long range seasonal and annual forecasts are a bit iffy. In fairness, their seasonal forecasts are not all together off the mark in general, but they still prove to be pretty useless, if not pointless. For example, calling a slightly warmer than average winter is pretty vague, as within such a winter, cold, harsh spells are still likely to occur which can mar subjective opinions on the overall forecast. The weather will not follow statistical climate trends, it merely creates them of its own free will. It will defy every time.

kerry1960

How could they not admit they were wrong DE , their LTF were rubbish , everyone can see that , i would also hope they will reimburse people/businesses who have paid premium rates for this rubbish .

Deep Easterly

kerry1960 wrote: »

How could they not admit they were wrong DE , their LTF were rubbish , everyone can see that , i would also hope they will reimburse people/businesses who have paid premium rates for this rubbish .

Good point Kerry, but I can't see that happening. They are state funded!

I think it just shows how pointless long range forecasts are. As I said, predicting a warmer or colder than average season is pretty pointless, Weather is a an immediate concern. What is important is getting short range forecast right and accurate, this is what effects us directly, not some vague mumbo jumbo about 3 to 12 months ahead!

kerry1960

I may be wrong about the UKMO advertising their services to the public re these LRF DE , but afaik they are heavily involved in advising the private sector , and if i was an ice lolly manufacturer last summer i would be suing .

Su Campu

"All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model."

That says it all really. :rolleyes: What a joke

Elmer Blooker

It's not just the UKMO, all long range forecasts are bull****. I've noticed that Joe accuweather Bastardi has narrowed down his "severe European winter" to an area between Germany and Scandinavia. What will it be next week? an area near the arctic circle maybe. And then there's yer man Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions who some of you might have heard on RTE radio during the cold spell. He said that the severe cold spell would last til March.
I think I'll find out where Mr Powell lives so I can send him a bunch of daffodils from my garden in a few weeks!

hellboy99

Didn't help that the BBC gave the head of the Met Office a good grilling

Video: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm

Su Campu

Boy did he get it!

octo

hellboy99 wrote: »

Didn't help that the BBC gave the head of the Met Office a good grilling

Video: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm

Ouch! He didn`t do well.

However most of the criticism I`ve seen of seasonal forecasting is ill-informed. Seasonal forecast are probabalistic, not deterministic. They are couched in terms of the probabilities of getting warmer/colder than average seasons, NOT definitive predictions. Most media commentators don`t understand this, they want "it`s going to be a warm summer" etc, and this is how they misinterpret the forecasts. It`s like criticising a bookie because the favourite didn`t win the race.

Here`s a good example, from a nation with a higher level of numerical understanding than ours.

Mobhi1

octo wrote: »

Ouch! He didn`t do well.

However most of the criticism I`ve seen of seasonal forecasting is ill-informed. Seasonal forecast are probabalistic, not deterministic. They are couched in terms of the probabilities of getting warmer/colder than average seasons, NOT definitive predictions. Most media commentators don`t understand this, they want "it`s going to be a warm summer" etc, and this is how they misinterpret the forecasts. It`s like criticising a bookie because the favourite didn`t win the race.

Here`s a good example, from a nation with a higher level of numerical understanding than ours.

Well they shouldn't have got involved with the media - should have just kept them as experimental forecasts without publicising them much. Maybe that's what they'll go back to now after getting in trouble in the summer and the winter!