Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Poll (January 2010)

Sulmac

I'm sure most of you have heard of the poll results by now, but here they are again, just to get a discussion going:

Modest recovery in Government support despite tough budget

STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor

Fri, Jan 22, 2010



SUPPORT FOR the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil has increased since last autumn, despite one of the toughest budgets in the history of the State, according to the latest Irish Times /Ipsos MRBI poll.

However, Fine Gael is also up in the poll and the combined support for the two main Opposition parties is running at 56 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for the two Coalition parties.

The modest recovery in the satisfaction ratings of the Government and the Taoiseach has brought them back to levels last seen in November 2008.

While Fianna Fáil is up two points since the last poll on the eve of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the Green Party has dropped one point.

Satisfaction with the Government is up five points to 19 per cent, while satisfaction with the performance of Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up three points to 26 per cent.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on September 24th last were: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (up one point); Labour, 24 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (down one point); and Independents/ Others, 11 per cent (no change).

The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.

The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (up one point); Labour, 17 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down one point); Independents/Others, 8 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 22 per cent (up one point).

The modest increase in the Fianna Fáil vote is offset by the decline in support for the Greens, who have slipped back into the negative territory that saw the party almost wiped out in the local elections last June.

The most heartening aspect of the poll from the Government’s perspective is the improvement in its satisfaction rating by five points in the wake of the budget and the bad weather, combined with the continued recovery in the Taoiseach’s ratings.

Fine Gael has retained the substantial lead over Fianna Fáil it first achieved in November 2008. This is the seventh Irish Times poll in a row to show Fine Gael as the biggest party in the country, and this was reflected in the European and local elections last June.

Labour has remained ahead of Fianna Fáil in the adjusted vote, although it has slipped behind the main Government party in terms of the core vote.

Labour has consolidated its lead as the biggest party in Dublin, although it has slipped back among the best- off AB social category, where Fine Gael is now the leading party.

The Green Party’s share of the vote has dropped back by a point, while satisfaction with the party leader, John Gormley, has gone up two points to 24 per cent.

The improvement in Brian Cowen’s satisfaction rating has come in spite of the fact that a significant 32 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters expressed dissatisfaction with his performance, while 59 per cent of Green supporters are dissatisfied.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny’s rating has slipped one point to 31 per cent, but he is still ahead of both Coalition party leaders. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains by far the most popular political figure on 45 per cent, with a one point increase since the last poll.

The Sinn Féin vote has dropped back after a rise during the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, when it was the only Dáil party campaigning for a No vote.

Satisfaction with party president Gerry Adams is up three points to 31 per cent, in spite of the recent controversy surrounding his handling of child abuse allegations.

© 2010 The Irish Times

mike65

Just to save a mod issuing "the standard warning", I'll do it - whats your opinion on the poll findings?

Spiritoftheseventies

Sulmac wrote: »

I'm sure most of you have heard of the poll results by now, but here they are again, just to get a discussion going:

heard that. But on those figures Labour FG will comfortably get in on a combined vote. Green vote i think will collapse.

Sulmac

mike65: Sorry, should have said!

Not surprised that FF are up after the budget where many will view them as having "stood up" to the public service. Though I'm still glad that FG and Labour are both larger and collectively have more than half the vote, whereas the coalition has a mere quarter. I'm also very surprised that Gerry Adams' rating has gone up with the recent controversy (I could never understand why it was that high among voters in the Republic anyway, it's not like he ever really does anything there).

The only thing that worries me is that the FF vote could keep rising at the expense of Labour (in particular) and soon FG.

I can't see the Greens recovering any time soon, despite the implementation of their so-called "green agenda", which I think most people agree with (environmentalism, energy, etc.).

Spiritoftheseventies

I think electorate will be very wary about voting for labour if they think there is a chance they will go into power with FF. And im still not toltally convinced that they will do the right thing. They need to say flat out unequivocally that they will not share power with FF>

johnnyskeleton

I hope against hope that this small rise is just a blip and not the start of them rising back in popularity.

Sadly though I see 2012 rolling around with FF beating the "look at the tough decisions we made 2 years ago; vote for us and the boom times will be back but vote for the opposition and they will sink the ship".

It really is that easy to manipulate the population of ireland. Tough budget 2010, medium budget 2011, give-away budget 2012, get re-elected and have 2-3 years of the fall out from abysmal short term pork barrel policies. Then 2015 budget tough decisions, 2016 medium budget and 2017 give away budget.

What's amazing is that they even have 22% of the vote.

Sulmac

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Sadly though I see 2012 rolling around with FF beating the "look at the tough decisions we made 2 years ago; vote for us and the boom times will be back but vote for the opposition and they will sink the ship".

One reason we need an election before 2012; this year would probably be best - particularly if the economy returns to growth (ie. technically exits recession) and they start to gain off that.

nesf

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves. There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

Spiritoftheseventies

yes but do you agree that the uncertainty over labours position may jeopardize FG in terms of forming a coalition.

nesf

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

yes but do you agree that the uncertainty over labours position may jeopardize FG in terms of forming a coalition.

Labour don't need to be in 2nd place to be able to go into Government with FG so long as FG keep a decent lead on FF.

Spiritoftheseventies

nesf wrote: »

Labour don't need to be in 2nd place to be able to go into Government with FG so long as FG keep a decent lead on FF.

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

johnnyskeleton

nesf wrote: »

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves.

I don't think it will. However, I'm concerned about the way that FF will spin things come the next election. They will sell themselves as the ones who made the "tough" decisions even though they didn't and they are the ones who will bring the new prosperity, even though all they are doing is having another giveaway budget on borrowed money. Sadly, the majority of the people of Ireland respond well to this.

nesf wrote: »

There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

I'm certainly hoping that they don't recover in popularity, but I'm by no means certain that they won't be re-elected come the next election. Coming into the last election the opposition were looking to be the clear favourites, but it tightened up towards the election day and in the end people voted FF back in. It's hard to remember those halcyon days of 2007, but even then the economy was in serious trouble and FF managed to just gloss over that for a massive number of people.

Even now, I'm not sure a lot of people really understand the nature of the economic difficulties the country faces, and only really know something is wrong because they have lost their job or their home etc.

FF will march out in early 2012 promising a second boom and jobs for all. FG being more honest will not make such claims. Labour being Labour will be very popular across the country but fail to capitalise on that due to poor vote management and a lack of nationwide candidates and presence. And yes, I can see FF coming back with maybe 65-70 seats, enough to get them into a rickety coalition but back into power none-the-less.

Sulmac

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

This would also be more attractive to Labour as they'd have more say with a weak FF than a strong FG and thus more influence. "Party before country" and all that. :rolleyes:

Labour really need to say categorically they will not enter government with FF under any conditions, as you said.

nesf

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

Despite FF being a better fit policy wise for Labour (in my opinion) the chances of Labour going into bed with FF after the next election are extremely thin so long as FG remain a strong force. FF could even finish first in the next election and end up in Opposition so long as the electoral math made a 2 party FG/Lab Government a possibility.

Spiritoftheseventies

Sure they will be making all those promises again. Remember Joan Burton alluding to fact that one particular minister was out canvassing at post offices where loan parents collected their allowances and promising some deal. Was sometime last year. Said minister shook his head when she brought it up.
this the link in question.

It was sunny day in early May. The year was 2007. Professor Bertie Ahern had just called an election. Brian Lenihan had an early morning job to do that pleasant sunny Tuesday morning of May 2007. It was the monthly Child Benefit payment day. Not just any ordinary payment day. That day in May 2007 was a bumper payment day. The previous December the other Brian, Mr Cowen, then Minister for Finance had made a special Budget day announcement. Child Benefit was to increase in 2007 by €10 a month per child. Not immediately in 2007. Mothers would have to wait a few months. They would have to wait till May to get the increase, by coincidence a likely election month.

So mums on the post office queue in Blanchardstown were looking forward to a bumper payment. And to make the day extra special there was the Minister for Children Brian Lenihan TD walking along the queue shaking hands, kissing babies and reminding everyone that Fianna Fail was the party that looked after child benefit. Something to remember on election day a few weeks later. That day in May 2007 you, Brian Lenihan TD, were cock of the Blanchardstown Post Office Walk. Now today, what do you have to say to those mums?

I can tell you Brian Lenihan , Mna na hEireann are not that easily fooled. It was exactly the same 5 years earlier. You and other FF TDs could boast to senior citizens over 70 that they would all get medical cards. That promise helped you win power again in the 2002 General Election. Later, you thought that you could play ducks and drakes with those people. Not so as it turned out.

http://www.joanburton.ie/?postid=1232

Eliot Rosewater

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

Spiritoftheseventies

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

Yes I think they will move to get Bruton in as leader within next twelve months or so. A very good orator. Himself and Lee the dream ticket in that party. Kenny has done well to build party up again but now it is time to move over.

Eliot Rosewater

Just out of curiosity, do you have any reason to suspect Kenny will be pressured out?

From where Im standing it would seem that it is merely those in political positions holding on for their political lives. Party before country, person before party. Kenny would prefer leading a weak coalition to not leading a strong majority.

I think this may be why Lee is under wraps. To much of a chance the backbenchers would be muffed that the newcomer gets all the attention. Lee was political gold imo, they just had to play him. But they didn't. Reeks of political infighting.

Spiritoftheseventies

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, do you have any reason to suspect Kenny will be pressured out?

From where Im standing it would seem that it is merely those in political positions holding on for their political lives. Party before country, person before party. Kenny would prefer leading a weak coalition to not leading a strong majority.

I think this may be why Lee is under wraps. To much of a chance the backbenchers would be muffed that the newcomer gets all the attention. Lee was political gold imo, they just had to play him. But they didn't. Reeks of political infighting.

I think they have to get either Lee or Bruton in. Lee comes across as someone who has the conviction to take on the vested interests. Have been very impressed with him so far. But really cant see Kenny staying on by time of next election.

maynooth_rules

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

No matter how unpopular Fianna Fail become with the electorate, they will still have there core supporters who would rather die that vote for anyone else, that is around 20% of the population (scary, i know). But other than that, there are plenty of the electorate who have become completly disillusioned with Fianna Fail but could not bring themselves to vote for Fine Gael. There is a limit to how popular Fine Gael can be due to history/family reasons. I personally could never see the day that Fine Gael get a full majority, mainly because many irish people stick to their votes and wont budge on it. I don't think a change of leadership will make one bit of difference to Fine Gaels overall support.

Eliot Rosewater

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

I think they have to get either Lee or Bruton in.

I think they have to too. But therein lies the problem. There is a sense of complacency in Fine Gael that is staggering. These things that are common sense to you and I wont happen easily. I cant see Kenny passing on the goblet (is that the saying?) even though the party would benefit immensely.

Ive said it before and ill say it again: a sizable proportion of people don't care about policy so much as personality. They want someone to shout "look at me, Ill fix this!" Kenny generally seems to be the biggest reason people dont want to vote Fine Gael. Its obvious he must go. But this is politics and the obvious is distorted by interests.

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I personally could never see the day that Fine Gael get a full majority, mainly because many irish people stick to their votes and wont budge on it...

I would disagree with you but I am relatively young so I spend most of my time around the "new generation" who seem to have a different attitude. This family voting thing is going out of fashion. As is joining a party just because your father did. I think that there is the 20% FF "lock in" but that its only an excuse. The small mindedness is fading away.

As an example I would ask you to cast your mind back to the John O'Donoghue furore. There were people on this Politics forum - who by definition are interested in Politics - who said that they would vote for Labour solely on the basis of Gilmores actions that day. People want leadership! Kenny doesn't offer it. Its obvious that FG need to change him so as to give the people what they are so blatantly crying out for.

Tenderloins1

I also thought that the recent media coverage about Adams and Sinn Fein would have damaged them.
However the coverage wasn't widespread nor was there that much on TV (especially with the Robinson affair dominating the news up there).
I'm sort of contracdicting myself here ...but with the abuse issue and policing talks we've also seen a bit more of Adams on the telly recently here.
Presumably it reminds people of The Peace Process and so on.

As mentioned earlier in the thread I often hear the I'd Vote Fine Gael only for Kenny line. You'd wonder would they though if Kenny went.

I'd love someone to do a poll with another who you'd vote for question,
This time with Richard Bruton as the Fine Gael Leader.
(it may well have been done)

nesf

Tenderloins1 wrote: »

I also thought that the recent media coverage about Adams and Sinn Fein would have damaged them.

I disagree, Adams' handling of the family situation improved my opinion of him rather than diminished it and I'm very far from being a fan of SF.

oppenheimer1

nesf wrote: »

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves. There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

nesf

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

Some may think that way, sure. Enough to give FF a majority and get them back in office? Generally after recessions or during them the incumbents get turfed out. It would be highly unusual for a party to retain power both during the boom and then during and after the recession. It "could" happen but I wouldn't bet on it unless you gave me very long odds.

Spiritoftheseventies

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

No. they got the country into this mess. Moral fibre. They don't have it.

Badabing

What do people think of Enda Kennys idea of a Fine Gael overall majority after this poll? Fine Gael would need to rise by at least 10% to have a chance. I can't see them getting the extra seats in the 3-4 seaters especially in Dublin and Cork.

hallelujajordan

Badabing wrote: »

What do people think of Enda Kennys idea of a Fine Gael overall majority after this poll? Fine Gael would need to rise by at least 10% to have a chance. I can't see them getting the extra seats in the 3-4 seaters especially in Dublin and Cork.

Highly unlikely . . Almost all of the swing has been from FF to FG . . One could argue that FG have not won support but rather FF have lost it. . Although the extent and pace of recovery is uncertain I would be very surprised if the economy has not shown a significant level of recovery by 2012. This recovery will cause a swing back towards FF and at FG's expense. The only chance I can see of a FG overall majority would be a major implosion within FF and an early general election . . both very unlikely.

hallelujajordan

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

No. they got the country into this mess. Moral fibre. They don't have it.

Ought we not to elect the government best positioned for the future . . If, as oppenheimer1 poses, FF have brought about an economic recovery they will likely be best positioned to continue that recovery. . It would be rather self-defeating to push them out of government at that stage !

Spiritoftheseventies

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Ought we not to elect the government best positioned for the future . . If, as oppenheimer1 poses, FF have brought about an economic recovery they will likely be best positioned to continue that recovery. . It would be rather self-defeating to push them out of government at that stage !

Again no. You tell me how we still have some schools operating out of prefabs, no post op beds, a huge gap between the rich and the poor and tell me if thats okay. This is not a one party state. FF have had ten years to get this right and they haven't. Time they served their time on the opposition benches.

hallelujajordan

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

Again no. You tell me how we still have some schools operating out of prefabs, no post op beds, a huge gap between the rich and the poor and tell me if thats okay. This is not a one party state. FF have had ten years to get this right and they haven't. Time they served their time on the opposition benches.

Do you mean No, we ought not to elect the government best positioned for the future ? ?