Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Poll (January 2010)

Spiritoftheseventies

btw Ray McSharry apparently has lots of lovely things to say (really)about his party in tomorrows SINDO. Hmmm

mr_happy

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I hope against hope that this small rise is just a blip and not the start of them rising back in popularity.

Sadly though I see 2012 rolling around with FF beating the "look at the tough decisions we made 2 years ago; vote for us and the boom times will be back but vote for the opposition and they will sink the ship".

It really is that easy to manipulate the population of ireland. Tough budget 2010, medium budget 2011, give-away budget 2012, get re-elected and have 2-3 years of the fall out from abysmal short term pork barrel policies. Then 2015 budget tough decisions, 2016 medium budget and 2017 give away budget.

What's amazing is that they even have 22% of the vote.

Its sad FF have any support after what has happened. I hope this popularity trend is wrong.

skearon

eigrod wrote: »

Jesus wept, but the people are being taken in.

If we have to face another 5-7 years of these cowboys, I think I'll just never bother voting again in my life.

This is frightening.

Democracy is frightening is it?

Perhaps people are finally starting to appreciate that the neccessary decisions have been, and will be made for economic recovery

Sulmac

skearon wrote: »

Perhaps people are finally starting to appreciate that the neccessary decisions have been, and will be made for economic recovery

Or perhaps some people never learn. :rolleyes:

Spiritoftheseventies

skearon wrote: »

Democracy is frightening is it?

Perhaps people are finally starting to appreciate that the neccessary decisions have been, and will be made for economic recovery

what we are going to see from FF is your classic vote management. They wont get the working class vote for love nor money so they will reach out to middle class with series of measures. But again their record speaks for itself. Not one banker arrested, developers will be back in business pretty soon.

Sulmac

Opposition 'not concerned' about rise in support for FF
31/01/2010 - 12:51:29

Opposition parties say they are not concerned about a rise in support for Fianna Fáil.

The party is up four points to 27% in the first Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post since the Budget.

Fine Gael, despite a drop of two points, is still out in front on 34%. Labour is unchanged at 17%, with the Greens staying on 5%. Sinn Féin is down two points to 8%; Independents and others are unchanged at 9%.

Newly elected Fine Gael councillor in Greystones, Co Wicklow Simon Harris said: "We've gained seats in every election under Enda Kenny's leadership. There's no reason for anyone to be concerned about Fine Gael in this poll..We're actually a point higher (than in the same poll last year)."

Labour Senator Ivana Bacik said: "The reality is that the combined support for Fine Gael and Labour is still so strong that if there were an election today or tomorrow, they would form the next Government."

Political commentators say it is too early to tell whether this is the beginning of a recovery for Fianna Fáil from its record low ratings.

Fianna Fáil's former Mayor of Dublin Eibhlin Byrne says the performance of Finance Minister Brian Lenihan "and his control of the economy at the moment" has helped the party.

BreakingNews.ie

I see Ivana is pretty confident about a Labour/FG coalition.

Red_Marauder

You know, as a Fine Gael supporter who has been slightly frustrated with some of their positions in the past 18 months, I have to say I don't find this bump surprising, and I don't think it will be the last.

I think Fianna Fail will bounce from here on in to some extent, and eventually they will recover their position.

In fact, I can think of some Fianna Fail politicians who, if I were part of their electorate, I would give my number 1 vote to. I would never in my wildest dreams have said that a year ago... I know people with a smiliar voting history to me who would also feel this way.

When can we expect the next big poll anyone know?

Sulmac

Red_Marauder wrote: »

When can we expect the next big poll anyone know?

I think they said next month on the RTÉ news last night.

Liam Byrne

skearon wrote: »

Democracy is frightening is it?

Perhaps people are finally starting to appreciate that the neccessary decisions have been, and will be made for economic recovery

....or more probably, they're starting to forget the reasons that those decisions are required, and who is responsible.

Also, NAMA being off the books means that they've deferred any evaluations for when that particular **** hits the fan, which will probably be long after they're voted onto the sidelines.

trapsagenius

Liam Byrne wrote: »

....or more probably, they're starting to forget the reasons that those decisions are required, and who is responsible.

Also, NAMA being off the books means that they've deferred any evaluations for when that particular **** hits the fan, which will probably be long after they're voted onto the sidelines.

Agreed.The bankers are getting an easy time of it recently.:D

eigrod

Yeah, I guess they deserve to be voted back in again. After all, the evidence suggests that FF have changed their ways in the last 12-18 months and should be given another chance as the 'new, clean FF' who have the best interests of the people at heart and 'cronyism' and 'jobs for the boys' are now dirty words in the FF camp.

Oh, hold on.....

http://www.tribune.ie/news/home-news/article/2010/jan/31/minister-silent-on-friends-12600-quango-post/

Minister silent on friend's €12,600 quango post
Ken Foxe, Public Affairs Correspondent
TRANSPORT minister Noel Dempsey has declined to comment after appointing one of his personal friends to a €12,600-a-year post with a newly-established quango.

Damian Usher, a former bank manager from Co Meath, was appointed to the board of the National Transport Authority late last year.

Fianna Fáil sources said Usher had canvassed for Noel Dempsey in previous elections. They said he was a close personal friend of the minister. A spokeswoman for the minister's department said Dempsey would not be commenting on any of the people who had been appointed to the National Transport Authority.

A statement said: "Under the legislation, the chairperson and eight ordinary members of the board of the National Transport Authority are those (in the opinion of the minister) who have wide experience of transport, industrial, commercial, financial, land-use planning or environmental matters, the organisation of workers or administration.

"In March 2009, the minister invited applications from anyone who wished to be considered for appointment as an ordinary member of the new authority.

"Applicants were required to demonstrate in writing to the minister how they met the criteria in the areas referred to above. A total of 68 applications in total were received.

"The remuneration for board members of the National Transport Authority is the same as for category 2 state bodies; that is, €12,600 for ordinary members and €21,600 for the chairperson."

Usher, when contacted by the Sunday Tribune, confirmed he had applied and was appointed as part of the process. He said: "I would prefer not to make any comment at all."

Usher was one of seven people appointed to the National Transport Authority together with chairman John Fitzgerald and chief executive Gerry Murphy.

hmmm

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

In my opinion its doing terrible considering the circumstances, but perhaps the FGers think its great.

I agree. The country has been crying out for someone they can trust to offer a bit of leadership. FG have dithered and spent too much showing opposition for opposition's sake and have totally blown the trust that the public wanted to put in them. If FG can barely get 30% at this point in our history, what happens when the economy recovers? Awful performance.

The Kenny thing is obvious, whether he is competent or not (he comes across as a cross between pretend-toughman George Bush and a wind up doll) he has lost the public trust and isn't about to get it back.

George Lee has a suspect temperament I feel. I'd like to see him more before I'd make a judgement there. Bruton doesn't perform well when he's up against good FF Ministers.

If FG can't Yates back to the fold they should give the party to Varadkar and get on with it. Better now than in 5 years time when FF have recovered.

Liam Byrne

trapsagenius wrote: »

Agreed.The bankers are getting an easy time of it recently.:D

So are the w......

trapsagenius

hmmm wrote: »

I agree. The country has been crying out for someone they can trust to offer a bit of leadership. FG have dithered and spent too much showing opposition for opposition's sake and have totally blown the trust that the public wanted to put in them. If FG can barely get 30% at this point in our history, what happens when the economy recovers? Awful performance.

The Kenny thing is obvious, whether he is competent or not (he comes across as a cross between pretend-toughman George Bush and a wind up doll) he has lost the public trust and isn't about to get it back.

George Lee has a suspect temperament I feel. I'd like to see him more before I'd make a judgement there. Bruton doesn't perform well when he's up against good FF Ministers.

If FG can't Yates back to the fold they should give the party to Varadkar and get on with it. Better now than in 5 years time when FF have recovered.

George Lee is just one of a number of "celebrity candidates" FG have drafted in over the years-Graham Geraghty, John o Mahony, Jimmy Deenihan-the list goes on.FG's lack of any intelligent or constructive opposition under Enda Kenny is shambolic and explains why they aren't further up the polls at the moment.

trapsagenius

Liam Byrne wrote: »

So are the w......

Eh? Sorry don't really understand that comment.

Liam Byrne

trapsagenius wrote: »

Eh? Sorry don't really understand that comment.

It needs to be combined with your statement.

trapsagenius

Liam Byrne wrote: »

It needs to be combined with your statement.

AHHHH right.Get it now:D

irishh_bob

terrible poll from fine gael,s point of view , the only way is up from here on for fianna fail , that is obvious , despite having incurred the wrath of 350 thousand state sector workers , the country as a whole has backed them this past number of months , if this poll doesnt drop the penny that kenny has to go then i really dont think fine gael have what it takes to rule , i say that as someone who would like to see a fine gael single party goverment , he is what holds so many back from supporting fine gael

Spiritoftheseventies

irishh_bob wrote: »

terrible poll from fine gael,s point of view , the only way is up from here on for fianna fail , that is obvious , despite having incurred the wrath of 350 thousand state sector workers , the country as a whole has backed them this past number of months , if this poll doesnt drop the penny that kenny has to go then i really dont think fine gael have what it takes to rule , i say that as someone who would like to see a fine gael single party goverment

thats the nub of the issue. Kenny not landing the punches in the dail. The sooner they get Bruton in the better.

Liam Byrne

the country as a whole has backed them this past number of months

Made that a little closer to the truth.

Or else make it "as a whole minus at least one".

Red_Marauder

trapsagenius wrote: »

George Lee is just one of a number of "celebrity candidates" FG have drafted in over the years-Graham Geraghty, John o Mahony, Jimmy Deenihan-the list goes on.FG's lack of any intelligent or constructive opposition under Enda Kenny is shambolic and explains why they aren't further up the polls at the moment.

Shambolic? Lack of intelligent opposition? Not up in the polls?

You are aware that three of the four candidates you seem to criticise were in fact elected by the people, don't you? Hardly shambolic, for the opposition is it.

Spiritoftheseventies

trapsagenius wrote: »

George Lee is just one of a number of "celebrity candidates" FG have drafted in over the years-Graham Geraghty, John o Mahony, Jimmy Deenihan-the list goes on.FG's lack of any intelligent or constructive opposition under Enda Kenny is shambolic and explains why they aren't further up the polls at the moment.

Of course FF have never had any celebrity tds themselves. going a bit off topic here but wasnt that jack lynch a terrific hurler in his day:rolleyes:

trapsagenius

Red_Marauder wrote: »

Shambolic? Lack of intelligent opposition? Not up in the polls?

You are aware that three of the four candidates you seem to criticise were in fact elected by the people, don't you? Hardly shambolic, for the opposition is it.

I said it explains why they weren't further up not that they weren't up.

The fact that they were elected doesn't change the fact that they're celebrity candidates.

trapsagenius

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

Of course FF have never had any celebrity tds themselves. going a bit off topic here but wasnt that jack lynch a terrific hurler in his day:rolleyes:

I think FF learned their lesson about celebrity candidates after Lynch! I was just making the point FG have drafted in many of these candidates over the years.

eigrod

trapsagenius wrote: »

George Lee is just one of a number of "celebrity candidates" FG have drafted in over the years-Graham Geraghty, John o Mahony, Jimmy Deenihan-the list goes on.FG's lack of any intelligent or constructive opposition under Enda Kenny is shambolic and explains why they aren't further up the polls at the moment.

At least that policy offers a fresh perspective.

Requirement #1 to become a FF candidate is "Are you related to one of us ?"

trapsagenius

eigrod wrote: »

At least that policy offers a fresh perspective.

Requirement #1 to become a FF candidate is "Are you related to one of us ?"

*sighs*. Ok, while accept that this has happened over the years, it is nowhere near as big a problem as people on boards make it out to be.

Scofflaw

Red_Marauder wrote: »

FG's lack of any intelligent or constructive opposition under Enda Kenny is shambolic and explains why they aren't further up the polls at the moment.

Shambolic? Lack of intelligent opposition? Not up in the polls?

You are aware that three of the four candidates you seem to criticise were in fact elected by the people, don't you? Hardly shambolic, for the opposition is it.

Intelligent and constructive opposition is hardly proven by either poll rises or elected candidates. Intelligent and constructive opposition would involve criticising what the government does wrong - the practice of simply criticising everything the government does (a practice by no means confined either to FG or just to those parties now in opposition) suggests either a disturbing inability to tell the difference between good and bad policy, or an equally disturbing indifference to it.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Liam Byrne

Scofflaw wrote: »

Intelligent and constructive opposition would involve criticising what the government does wrong - the practice of simply criticising everything the government does (a practice by no means confined either to FG or just to those parties now in opposition) suggests either a disturbing inability to tell the difference between good and bad policy, or an equally disturbing indifference to it.

Perfectly valid point, Scofflaw; but there are a few problems with that in the current context.

1) Where what they've done wrong is so massive that it should - rightly - overshadow the minor gains

2) Where the minor gains are only required because of the massive stuff they've done wrong

3) Where any valid criticism is written off as "bashing" by the spin machine, or claims that "the past is the past - move on"; requesting zero accountability

4) Where the spin machine blames external factors completely for the disasters, but takes credit for the minor occasional success; again, zero accountability

Scofflaw

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Perfectly valid point, Scofflaw; but there are a few problems with that in the current context.

1) Where what they've done wrong is so massive that it should - rightly - overshadow the minor gains

2) Where the minor gains are only required because of the massive stuff they've done wrong

3) Where any valid criticism is written off as "bashing" by the spin machine, or claims that "the past is the past - move on"; requesting zero accountability

4) Where the spin machine blames external factors completely for the disasters, but takes credit for the minor occasional success; again, zero accountability

All undeniably the case, but, as you know, two wrongs don't make a right. Opposition parties criticise everything, not just the enormous wrongs. The websites of opposition TDs are stuffed with little outraged attacks on entirely reasonable government actions, from carbon-emission VRT through GM-free pigfeed to the banning of bog-cutting on SACs. It makes it clear that the point is to attack government actions because they are government actions - but we know that in government, the current opposition would be doing similar things themselves.

That's also a failure of accountability - the opposition isn't doing its job of holding the government to account for things it does wrong, nor is it being honest with the electorate. Not only that, but it is contributing directly to problem 3 of your list - if the opposition criticise everything, it becomes perfectly possible to dismiss valid criticism as bashing.

It may be time for the Irish opposition to realise that they're not the solution, but part of the problem - and are therefore their own greatest problem.

cordially,
Scofflaw

View

Scofflaw wrote: »

Opposition parties criticise everything, not just the enormous wrongs.

Very true. Under the system we have that is the way oppositions (of whatever party/parties) always beheave. It is stupid but the practice of the Government parties (again of whatever vintage) always defending the Government against any, and all, criticism is, if anything, even more stupid.

And the blame there lies largely with the Government parties - they after all have the numbers to change the system but none of them ever choose to do so.

Scofflaw wrote: »

That's also a failure of accountability - the opposition isn't doing its job of holding the government to account for things it does wrong,

As mentioned above, it doesn't hugely matter if the opposition tries to hold the Government to account - the Government parties always back the Government.

Offhand, I can't think of any occassion when the Dail or Seanad ever voted to criticise, much less censure, the Goverment.

Scofflaw wrote: »

It may be time for the Irish opposition to realise that they're not the solution, but part of the problem - and are therefore their own greatest problem.

The opposition parties can't be the solution until they are elected to Government. At which point, the parties in the Oireachtas merely swop the roles of "Government parties" and "Opposition parties".

Sorry if that sounds like a defence of the indefensible but, however bad our current parties are, I have really doubts about new ones with wonderful "solutions" to our problems (Think Libertas (at best) or COIR if not worse)).