February 2010 contest

M.T. Cranium

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. DE says the running "normal" value for this in February (based on 1961-90) is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month.

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010.

(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010.

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average.

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above. Please note, a high estimate should be given as "percentage of normal" not "percentage above normal" to avoid confusion. If you expect twice normal, that would be 200% of normal, etc.

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual value ... predict the daily maximum temperature at Valentia on the 14th. Even if we're all way off, somebody's going to scoop ten points here.

ENTER BY END OF MONDAY, 1st FEB (penalty points apply on 2nd, no entries accepted after 2359h on the 2nd).

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Note on scoring. I have added "Con Sensus" to the contest, he/she always predicts the median of all other forecasts in each category. But the scoring for Con Sensus is outside of scoring for real contestants, in other words, he/she does not grab a spot from you when we rank order. The scores for Con Sensus are what those forecasts would get for anyone who made them, to give you an idea if you are improving on the group's consensus forecast (and to give all of us an idea of how accurate the consensus is).

200motels

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. DE says the running "normal" value for this in February (based on 1961-90) is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month. 3.8C

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010.
13.4C
(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010. -4.6C

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average. 135%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above. Please note, a high estimate should be given as "percentage of normal" not "percentage above normal" to avoid confusion. If you expect twice normal, that would be 200% of normal, etc. 168%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual value ... predict the daily maximum temperature at Valentia on the 14th. Even if we're all way off, somebody's going to scoop ten points here. 8.4C

Deep Easterly

Increasingly mild, with the increasing risk of high rainfall totals and storms towards mid/late month period*

(1)Mean Temp: 5.3c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 14.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -5.9c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 158%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 89%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 11.3c

*I hope...:o

Speak Now

(1)Mean Temp: 3.7c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 12.0c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -8.0c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 85%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 120%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 8.0c

Redsunset

(1)Mean Temp: 3.0c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 14.0c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -11.0c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 75%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 170%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 5.0c

Lumi

(1)Mean Temp: 4.8c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 14.7c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -5.1c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 128%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 115%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 7.5c

hellboy99

(1)Mean Temp: 4c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -5c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 127%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 135%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 8c

jd

(1)Mean Temp: 4.3 c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 14.0c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -7.1 c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 103%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 105%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 9.0c

nacho libre

(1) For 25 points, give us the (slightly) new and improved "Central Ireland mean temperature" provided courtesy of Deep Easterly. derived from five stations scattered around central Ireland. DE says the running "normal" value for this in February (based on 1961-90) is about 4.7 C, so go by that in your calculations. For anyone new to this, the mean is the average of max and min temps on a daily basis, all averaged out for the month. 5.1c

(2) For 20 points, give us the highest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010.12.9c
13.4C
(3) For 20 points, give us the lowest temperature that you predict for any station on met.ie as per the monthly summary, in February 2010. -7.6c

(4) For 15 points, give us the monthly precipitation (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of frozen, snow etc) expressed as a percentage of normal, the result to be calculated from graphs in the met.ie monthly summary, using whatever stations they report and taking their average. 130%

(5) For 10 points, give us the monthly sunshine hours expressed as a percentage of normal, same procedure as above. Please note, a high estimate should be given as "percentage of normal" not "percentage above normal" to avoid confusion. If you expect twice normal, that would be 200% of normal, etc. 90%

(6) Now for the bonus question, 10 points, to be awarded in rank order of closest guesses to actual value ... predict the daily maximum temperature at Valentia on the 14th. Even if we're all way off, somebody's going to scoop ten points here. 11.7c

TheInquisitor

(1)Mean Temperature : 4.0c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 10c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -15c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 85%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 150%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 4c

SeaFields

1. Mean Temp : 4.7c

2. Highest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary : 15.5c

3. Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary : -3.9c

4. Rainfall Percentage : 110%

5. Sunshine Percentage : 100%

6. Valentia 14th High : 11.5c

Good luck everyone

John mac

(1)Mean Temp: 4.9c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -4.9c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 111%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 165%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 13.3c

mysillyusername

1)Mean Temp: 4.6c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 11.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -2.9c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 87%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 96%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 6.9c

cherryghost

(1)Mean Temp: 3.6c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.0c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -8.5c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 87%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 120%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 6.5c

dasa29

(1)Mean Temp: 4.5c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 12.5c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -5.5c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 120%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 125%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 10c

Su Campu

1/ Mean Temp 4.4°C
2/ Max Temp 12.7°C
3/ Min Temp -9.4
4/ % Rainfall 86%
5/ Sunshine 135%
6/ Valentia on the 14th 9.6°C

Mmcd

(1)Mean Temp: 2.8c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 12.6c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -9.4c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 77%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 132%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 5.3

Strasser

(1)Mean Temp: 4.4c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.8c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -6.1c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 95%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 102%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 6.5c
__________________

M.T. Cranium

Mean 5.5 C

Max 13.8 C

Min -5.2 C

Rainfall 125%

Sunshine 100%

Valentia 14th ... 11.3 C

Joe Public

(1) 3.8°C
(2) 13.3°C
(3) -7.8°C
(4) 85%
(5) 130%
(6) Valentia max on the 14th 4.6°C

kindredspirit

Hi MJ,

Have to post this under a new user name "Kindred_Spirit" as I couldn't log in under my old one "kindredspirit" due to a now defunct e-mail address. I've made several e-mail requests to boards.ie for a new password but didn't get one reply.

Anyway here's my entry for February.

1) Feb mean. 4.0°C.
2) Feb highest temp. 12.5°C.
3) Lowest temp. -5.0°C.
4) % of precip. 125%
5) % of sun. 105%
6) max @Valentia 14/2/10. 10.0°C.

nilhg

(1)Mean Temp: 4.7c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.9c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -4.7c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 108%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 99%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 9.1c

DOCARCH

(1)Mean Temp: 4.3c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -5.6c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 96%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 105%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 11.2c

Rebelbrowser

(1)Mean Temp: 4.8c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 13.6c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -6.7c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 132%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 89%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 5.4c

Danno

(1)Mean Temp: 3.7c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 12.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -7.7c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 85%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 125%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 6.4c

Speak Now

Danno wrote: »

(1)Mean Temp: 3.7c

(2)Highest temp as per Met Eireann Summary: 12.3c

(3)Lowest Temp as per Met Eireann Summary: -7.7c

(4)Rainfall percentage: 85%

(5) Sunshine percentage: 125%

(6)Valentia 14th High: 6.4c

Is this the secret of your success, posting when the months already begun :D just as well the models are so inconsistent

Danno

If the match begins at 3.30pm, no point in being on the field at 1pm now is there?

M.T. Cranium

What about the time zone difference?

Speaking of which, entries still welcome, to end of Tuesday 2nd, now under the 10% penalty rule for 60+ scores.

This year, I will be enforcing the deadlines quite strictly so please take note, when I post the "end of play" notice anything after that (including edits) will be out of bounds (stroke and distance).

Speak Now

Danno wrote: »

If the match begins at 3.30pm, no point in being on the field at 1pm now is there?

Or 4 P.M for that matter

Danno

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Or 4 P.M for that matter

What is it them lads in Kilkenny say...

"The match started at 3.30 and ended at 3-30"

...or something along those lines!!! :P

Speak Now

Danno wrote: »

What is it them lads in Kilkenny say...

"The match started at 3.30 and ended at 3-30"

...or something along those lines!!! :P

Indeed you've just blown my cover what a day that was