February 2010 contest

Danno

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Indeed you've just blown my cover what a day that was

LOL!!! Even harder for me as a "neutral" Laois man sitting on top of the Canal End watching yea crash and burn. :pac:

M.T. Cranium

No late entries received, entries now closed ... here is a summary of the forecasts for February:

FORECASTER ... Mean .... Max .... Min ... Rain% ... Sun% ... Val 14th
________________________________________________________

MT Cranium ........ 5.5 ..... 13.8 .... -5.2 ..... 125 .... 100 .... 11.3
Deep Easterly ..... 5.3 ..... 14.3 .... -5.9 ..... 158 ..... 89 ..... 11.3
nacho libre ......... 5.1 ..... 12.9 .... -7.6 ..... 130 ..... 90 ..... 11.7
John mac ........... 4.9 ..... 13.3 .... -4.9 ..... 111 .... 165 .... 13.3
Rebelbrowser ...... 4.8 ..... 13.6 .... -6.7 ..... 132 ..... 89 ...... 5.4
Fionagus ............ 4.8 ..... 14.7 .... -5.1 ..... 128 .... 115 ..... 7.5
Nilhg ................. 4.7 ..... 13.9 .... -4.7 ..... 108 ...... 99 ..... 9.1
SeaFields ........... 4.7 ..... 15.5 .... -3.9 ..... 110 .... 100 .... 11.5
mysillyusername .. 4.6 ..... 11.3 .... -2.9 ...... 87 ...... 96 ...... 6.9
dasa29 ............. 4.5 ..... 12.5 .... -5.5 ..... 120 .... 125 .... 10.0
Strasser ............ 4.4 ..... 13.8 ..... -6.1 ...... 95 .... 102 ...... 6.5
Su Campu .......... 4.4 ..... 12.7 ..... -9.4 ..... 86 ..... 135 ...... 9.6

Con Sensus ........ 4.4 ..... 13.2 ..... -5.9 ..... 108 .... 115 ..... 8.0

DOCARCH ........... 4.3 .... 13.3 ..... -5.6 ...... 96 ..... 105 .... 11.2
jd ..................... 4.3 ..... 14.0 .... -7.1 ..... 103 ..... 105 ..... 9.0
Kindred Spirit ...... 4.0 ..... 12.5 .... -5.0 ..... 125 ..... 105 .... 10.0
hellboy99 ........... 4.0 ..... 13.0 .... -5.0 ..... 127 ..... 135 ..... 8.0
TheInquisitor ...... 4.0 ..... 10.0 ... -15.0 ...... 85 ..... 150 ..... 4.0
Joe Public .......... 3.8 ..... 13.3 ..... -7.8 ...... 85 ..... 130 ..... 4.6
200motels .......... 3.8 ..... 13.4 ..... -4.6 .... 135 ..... 168 ..... 8.4
Danno ............... 3.7 ..... 12.3 ..... -7.7 ...... 85 ..... 125 ..... 6.4
Jerry Seinfeld ...... 3.7 ..... 12.0 ..... -8.0 ...... 85 ..... 120 ..... 8.0
cherryghost ........ 3.6 ..... 13.0 ..... -8.5 ...... 87 ..... 120 ..... 6.5
redsunset ........... 3.0 ..... 14.0 ... -11.0 ...... 75 ..... 170 ..... 5.0

---

So then, 23 forecasts this month (up five from January) and consensus is found from the median so the 12th ranked forecast in each category is consensus. Means would be slightly different perhaps, not much looking at the spreads.

Good luck to all, seems that nobody is expecting a really cold month but about half are expecting a cold spell of some note.

Thanks again to Deep Easterly for his data support; between us, we will keep you updated on the progress of these forecasts.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight last (the 6th), the Feb combined mean of our 5 met eireann stations is standing at 5.1c, which is 0.5c above normal, breaking the trend of the preceding 2 months which were were generally below normal throughout.

A quick glance at how the year is doing so far regarding the temp profile of the stations used is doing so far (up to the 6th Feb):



Up to midnight last, the combined mean temp (from Jan 1st) of the 5 met stations we use is at 2.30c. At this stage in 2009, it was at 3.83c, but the gap between 2009 and 2010 is narrowing rapidly at this stage as the cool spell this time last year began to lower the mean temp from here on in, while this year, it is rising quite rapidly and it is likely that the coolish week coming up only slow down this rise, rather than reverse it.

However, will post up another report in a week to see how things are petering out on that score.




All data used C/O Met Eireann

M.T. Cranium

Thanks DE, meanwhile through the first seven days, rainfall has averaged just a touch over normal at about 105% while sunshine is running considerably lower than average at about 60% -- these trends look to change slowly to perhaps 80/60 as a dull, dry period begins. Temperatures look like coming down from the high 4s at present to perhaps 3 or even 2.5 by the end of this week as the next few days average about 1 or lower.

Much depends on the speed of any warming trend beyond the middle of the month.

Deep Easterly

As of midnight the 13th Feb, the current combined mean of our 5 inland met eireann station stands at 3.4c, which is 1.3c below the 61-90 normal. All swings and roundabouts this month so far.


A quick update on how the combined yearly mean is doing from the 5 met eirannn stations we use for the comp:



Up to midnight last (the 13th), the mean from January 1st is standing at 2.26c; at this stage last year, it was at 3.81c, so a difference of 1.55c between this year and last at this stage. At this stage in 2009 we were beginning to enter a slightly warmer spell, while the coming week in 2010 will probably continue on the near or slightly below average trend which began last week. So, will the anomaly between 2009/10 widen over the coming week?

Tune in next week to find out!


All data used C/O Met Eireann

M.T. Cranium

The maximum at Valentia on the 14th was 8.2 C ... this leaves three forecasters tied for the ten points in that category; Hellboy99, Jerry Seinfeld, and 200motels were all just 0.2 off (as was Con sensus).

We are a formidable group, it seems.

Okay then, I make the average temperature so far about 3.0 C, the rainfall has fallen off to 60% of normal, and sunshine is up a bit now to about 85% of normal. The way this week looks, none of these will change a lot.

Look for a final update around the 21st, then we'll have the final results some time on March 1st, I hope. The March contest will be announced soon; you can guess what the bonus question might be (even MTC has heard of St Patrick's Day).

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay then, I make the average temperature so far about 3.0 C, the rainfall has fallen off to 60% of normal, and sunshine is up a bit now to about 85% of normal. The way this week looks, none of these will change a lot.

Close M.T. Feb mean on 3.3c up to midnight last. Rainfall % of our five met stations is standing at 25.2% of the entire Feb 61-90 mean, which is roughly 52% of the of the mean of the first 14 days of the month (assuming a linear mean daily total of 3.3mm)


Edit: I actually posted a graph on my update yesterday but it seems that it did not show up. Will update and post up later.

Edit Edit: Yearly graph as promised. Up to midnight 14th:



Will post another update next Sunday to see how things are panning out regarding the annual mean temp trend.

All data used C/O Met Eireann

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight last (the 20th), the Feb combined mean of our 5 met eireann stations is standing at 2.9c, or 1.8c below the 61-90 norm for the month.

Update on how the yearly combined mean of the 5 met stations is doing:



A slight rise during the early part of the week was tempered by the cool temps of the last few days, and as a result, the yearly mean is a little down from last week's value by about 0.03c. At this stage last year, the annual mean temp was beginning to rise as we entered a warmer than average period. The coming week in 2010 looks set to remain on the cool side of average although daily means will probably rise overall over the next 7 days. Will post an update next Sunday to see how things are working out on that score.


Data source: http://www.met.ie/

M.T. Cranium

Update at the three-quarters stage, mean temp seems stalled near 3.0, rainfall has dropped slightly to about 55% of normal, and sunshine defied my prediction and surged forward to about 110% after nearly double the average in the past seven days. Well, I won't speculate about the final values except to say that rainfall is likely to increase.

Opening a March forecast thread shortly.

nacho libre

another disastrous month for me. dare i say i hope the last few days in February are on the mild side:pac:

Deep Easterly

It is looking very likely that Redsunset will have guessed most closely the finishing mean temp of the month, although he probably still over estimated it. Guess he still isn't reading those sun spots correctly yet! but he's getting there...:)

Redsunset

Ah yes my X+Y equation let me down,and im expecting at least half of next month to be on the cold side of normal:D

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight last (the 27th), the Feb mean of our 5 met eireann stations is standing at 2.6c, which is 2.1c below the 61-90 norm. With one day left, the final figure is unlikely to deviate very much from this figure.


Looking at the annual mean up to last midnight, the current year is still running below normal, as graph shows:



The mean for the last 7 days worked out at 1.8c, which resulted in a slight drop in the annual mean since this day last week. At this stage last year, the value stood at 4.66c, which was bang on average. The following 7 days in 2009 brought no more than average temps, with the 7 day mean working out around 5.0c, while the overall mean for the next 7 days this year will probably work out around 3.0c or 4.0c, a little cooler, but we should start to see a rise in the annual mean temp regardless.

It will still take a number of weeks though to bring this year back anywhere near average values, so watch this space.


All data C/0 Met Eireann

Deep Easterly

M.T will have all the finishing details and stats later on but the final mean of our 5 met stations for February 2010 finished at 2.6c, which is 2.1c below normal. Well done to Redsunset as he guess was the closest to the final figure.

Will post up chart of the daily means for the month later on.

M.T. Cranium

Right then, the other results are now available, and the correct answers for February are:

1. Mean 2.6 C

2. Max 11.3

3. Min -6.6

4. Rainfall 68% of normal

5. Sunshine 137% of normal

6. Bonus 8.2 C at Valentia on the 14th.

Scoring will take place later "this evening" and will be posted in the annual scoring thread when I am done. Don't forget to enter March.

Deep Easterly

As promised, graph charting the daily combined mean values of our 5 met eireann stations for the month of Feb 2010:



Mildish start, cool finish.

Finishing Stats:

Mean Max: 6.3c (1.5c below 61-90 mean)
Mean Min: -1.0c (2.7c below 61-90 mean)
Overall Mean: 2.6c (2.1c below 61-90 mean)

Rainfall total from the 5 stations averaged at 39.8mm, which is just 60% of what would normally be expected within the 61-90 series.

Roll on summer...:)



All stats and figures c/o Met Eireann

Danno

MTC says rainfall was 68%
DE says rainfall was 45%

Which is correct?

Deep Easterly

My mistake Danno. The percentage value I quoted there for some reason is the Feb total rainfall set against the January average :rolleyes::rolleyes:. How on earth did I manage that!! . Actual value is 60% of normal rainfall. So M.T.C not far off, although he uses a different methodology . Will edit original post.

M.T. Cranium

Just to clarify, the rainfall forecasts are validated against the average of eleven stations in the Met Eireann summary, which includes the five used by DE in his temperature index. I endorsed the change in the temperature index (from average of extremes) because it was too Valentia-influenced, and also because there was no easy way to find the national average because the graphs show anomalies and not actual values (whle the rainfall and sunshine graphs show both).

Perhaps it's a bit confusing or difficult to have these differences, but at random the temperatures are likely to be a bit colder in the winter half-year than the old-fashioned method we used in 2009, whereas the rainfall and sunshine are likely to be about the same whether we use the five stations or all available stations (well for sunshine we can't use the five because several of them don't report sunshine).

As you see, the difference this month is rather marginal and had we used the 60% figure for rainfall, I would have needed to boost the scores using the minimum progression of scores rule, and they would have come out just about the same.

In the summer months, it's quite likely that the five stations will sometimes have a much different rainfall anomaly than the eleven that are found in the monthly summary, but in that case, I prefer the eleven as a forecast challenge because it tends to reduce the convective random element.

As always, I am very open to suggestions about how to score and how to arrange the contest, so nobody should imagine that these rules are carved in stone forever. However they are going to be locked in for 2010, just to be fair.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just to clarify, the rainfall forecasts are validated against the average of eleven stations in the Met Eireann summary, which includes the five used by DE in his temperature index. I endorsed the change in the temperature index (from average of extremes) because it was too Valentia-influenced, and also because there was no easy way to find the national average because the graphs show anomalies and not actual values (whle the rainfall and sunshine graphs show both).

Perhaps it's a bit confusing or difficult to have these differences, but at random the temperatures are likely to be a bit colder in the winter half-year than the old-fashioned method we used in 2009, whereas the rainfall and sunshine are likely to be about the same whether we use the five stations or all available stations (well for sunshine we can't use the five because several of them don't report sunshine).

As you see, the difference this month is rather marginal and had we used the 60% figure for rainfall, I would have needed to boost the scores using the minimum progression of scores rule, and they would have come out just about the same.

In the summer months, it's quite likely that the five stations will sometimes have a much different rainfall anomaly than the eleven that are found in the monthly summary, but in that case, I prefer the eleven as a forecast challenge because it tends to reduce the convective random element.

As always, I am very open to suggestions about how to score and how to arrange the contest, so nobody should imagine that these rules are carved in stone forever. However they are going to be locked in for 2010, just to be fair.

Yes M.T, and you are right in using the breakdown of the 11 stations regarding rainfall for the comp rather than the 5 I use, which is just for statistical purposes.

I should have stated this in the original post. While the temp mean of the 5 stations used is for the competition, the rainfall stats from the same stations are not. Always stick with M.T's stats on these as they give a better all round picture of rainfall distribution around Ireland.

My stats are just dealing with inland stations and as mentioned, are just for statistical purposes separate from the competition analysis, but may be just of interest to those, including myself, who live in inland Ireland.

Because we matter too! :)