the empties and oversupply of property

ei.sdraob

i think frontline tonite have a special on "empties"

anyways this was published today, An estimation of oversupply of housing units 2006-09 by county, very interesting



tho they should really mentioned what "city" boundaries they are using, i suspect its alot more than 2% here in Galway City, Doughiska alone has **** load of empty places and alot of the immigrants have left the city in last year

also the total falls well short of the 300,000 empty houses

The_Honeybadger

there was a bloke on the radio this evening from the Irish Homebuilders Association who claims that all houses that are for sale in the country are included in these figures, whether they are occupied or not. I don't think anybody can say with any certainty what the actual number is, but I'm sure its alot. Maybe not quite 300k though

ei.sdraob

mickeyk wrote: »

there was a bloke on the radio this evening from the Irish Homebuilders Association who claims that all houses that are for sale in the country are included in these figures, whether they are occupied or not. I don't think anybody can say with any certainty what the actual number is, but I'm sure its alot. Maybe not quite 300k though

oh its 300,000 arlight

they based their study on ESB connections, GeoDirectory and Census

that excludes unbuilt homes (plenty of them around) and holiday homes

Along with colleagues, he used Ireland’s national address database - the GeoDirectory, the 2006 Census and Department of Environment figures based on ESB connection points.

They concluded that 302,625 houses are not inhabited, including properties for rent or for sale, homes not on the market for various reasons as well as abandoned houses. The figure does not include the estimated 49,000 holiday homes around the State.

changes

I was looking at my local estate agents website recently, the asking price for most houses has dropped very little.

I think people still have not accepted the reality that nobody is willing to pay those asking prices anymore.

fontanalis

Isn't Frontline covering this tonight?

The_Honeybadger

changes wrote: »

I was looking at my local estate agents website recently, the asking price for most houses has dropped very little.

I think people still have not accepted the reality that nobody is willing to pay those asking prices anymore.

I find the same, I have been keeping an eye on prices too and see very little difference between today and 2-3 years ago. I probably wont be buying for a few years but still interested to know what is out there. These are asking prices however, its a buyers market for the forseeable future and once interest rates start to rise in late 2010 I reckon you will definately see a big drop in asking prices, especially in less desireable locations as investors cut their losses. Will have to wait and see I guess but I wonder why people place ads on DAFT and other websites looking for 350k for a 3 bedroom in rural Ireland, that day is gone thank god.

Victor

ei.sdraob wrote: »

i think frontline tonite have a special on "empties"

anyways this was published today, very interesting

http://i46.tinypic.com/b9gkdj.jpg

tho they should really mentioned what "city" boundaries they are using, i suspect its alot more than 2% here in Galway City, Doughiska alone has **** load of empty places and alot of the immigrants have left the city in last year

also the total falls well short of the 300,000 empty houses

Where are those figures from? Is the spreadsheet available? How come it doesn't account for change in household size.

ei.sdraob

Victor wrote: »

Where are those figures from? Is the spreadsheet available? How come it doesn't account for change in household size.

sorry url was broken in first post, fixed now

http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2010/01/24/an-estimation-of-oversupply-of-housing-units-2006-09-by-county/


they have another interesting post @ http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2010/01/25/identifying-ireland%E2%80%99s-ghost-estates/

i think its from same people who were on frontline tonite (boldie guy)

hinault

The Professor from DCU was correct : use funds to clear down mortgage holders debt, rather than giving the banks €54b.

ei.sdraob

hinault wrote: »

The Professor from DCU was correct : use funds to clear down mortgage holders debt, rather than giving the banks €54b.

but how will that benefit galway tenter's

hinault

ei.sdraob wrote: »

but how will that benefit galway tenter's

You hit the nail on the head there, my friend.

View

ei.sdraob wrote: »

tho they should really mentioned what "city" boundaries they are using, i suspect its alot more than 2% here in Galway City, Doughiska alone has **** load of empty places

I'd imagine they are using the legally defined city and county boundaries as used by the city and county councils.

silverharp

hinault wrote: »

The Professor from DCU was correct : use funds to clear down mortgage holders debt, rather than giving the banks €54b.

I cant see why, I paid my mortgage why should I support (or people that dont own a house) people that were reckless or nieve. Surely the people that can afford to run a house should own them.

woodseb

hinault wrote: »

The Professor from DCU was correct : use funds to clear down mortgage holders debt, rather than giving the banks €54b.

will the government then own a piece of all our houses or would this amount to a massive windfall to all mortgage holders with nothing in return for the government

Niall Keane

I cant see why, I paid my mortgage why should I support (or people that dont own a house) people that were reckless or nieve. Surely the people that can afford to run a house should own them.

You'd rather pay the same amount for millionaire bankers and developers whose family's assets are protected?

See when people lose their homes and they're fire saled you also lose as the value of your property also goes down.

If there was a mortgage-NAMA you could in effect give a moratorium on payments for say 5 years to an effected family so they could retrain to find jobs in another sector. It’s easier to retrain an individual to be productive and to once again continue paying their mortgage than it is to find a profitable use for boom-time priced land in Cavan??? The risk is also spread out. You may stand to lose 300k on an individual, but an individual scheme / plot could cost ..... well think Ringsend?

Logical really!

But logic could never stand up to Irish begrudgery

woodseb

Niall Keane wrote: »

You'd rather pay the same amount for millionaire bankers and developers whose family's assets are protected?

See when people lose their homes and they're fire saled you also lose as the value of your property also goes down.

If there was a mortgage-NAMA you could in effect give a moratorium on payments for say 5 years to an effected family so they could retrain to find jobs in another sector. It’s easier to retrain an individual to be productive and to once again continue paying their mortgage than it is to find a profitable use for boom-time priced land in Cavan??? The risk is also spread out. You may stand to lose 300k on an individual, but an individual scheme / plot could cost ..... well think Ringsend?

Logical really!

But logic could never stand up to Irish begrudgery

what you are suggesting is nothing more than a multi-billion euro social welfare scheme - it is not something the government could borrow for on the international markets

Niall Keane

NAMA is

a multi-billion euro social welfare scheme

for bankers and developers!

It’s just can’t see a return on it, sure "property" will bounce back but "that" particular substandard property? Remember in the future the market will probably be more regulated to become sustainable, so houses will once again be built to be "machines for living in" and not the smallest box possible to generate a profit.
Maybe the government can blag the money from the “international market" the same fools who "didn't see this coming"? This just reinforces my view that the old guard really does need to be swept away.

Cool Mo D

Niall Keane wrote: »

NAMA is



for bankers and developers!

It’s just can’t see a return on it, sure "property" will bounce back but "that" particular substandard property? Remember in the future the market will probably be more regulated to become sustainable, so houses will once again be built to be "machines for living in" and not the smallest box possible to generate a profit.
Maybe the government can blag the money from the “international market" the same fools who "didn't see this coming"? This just reinforces my view that the old guard really does need to be swept away.

No it isn't! Not for developers or bankers. It's a bailout for the balance sheets of the banks. Bankers will benefit, because they will still have jobs, but Nama money won't be going into their pockets. And the developers don't get any - it doesn't affect their debts at all. They would benefit from higher house prices if Nama keeps prices artificially high, but that won't happen either.

gurramok

Niall Keane wrote: »

You'd rather pay the same amount for millionaire bankers and developers whose family's assets are protected?

See when people lose their homes and they're fire saled you also lose as the value of your property also goes down.

If there was a mortgage-NAMA you could in effect give a moratorium on payments for say 5 years to an effected family so they could retrain to find jobs in another sector. It’s easier to retrain an individual to be productive and to once again continue paying their mortgage than it is to find a profitable use for boom-time priced land in Cavan??? The risk is also spread out. You may stand to lose 300k on an individual, but an individual scheme / plot could cost ..... well think Ringsend?

Logical really!

But logic could never stand up to Irish begrudgery

I want compensation for the overpayment of my car and compensation for its devaluation.

silverharp

Niall Keane wrote: »

You'd rather pay the same amount for millionaire bankers and developers whose family's assets are protected?

See when people lose their homes and they're fire saled you also lose as the value of your property also goes down.

If there was a mortgage-NAMA you could in effect give a moratorium on payments for say 5 years to an effected family so they could retrain to find jobs in another sector. It’s easier to retrain an individual to be productive and to once again continue paying their mortgage than it is to find a profitable use for boom-time priced land in Cavan??? The risk is also spread out. You may stand to lose 300k on an individual, but an individual scheme / plot could cost ..... well think Ringsend?

Logical really!

But logic could never stand up to Irish begrudgery

look property will find its own value with or without gov. intervention. Nobody should be bailed out. By propping up prices (in the short term) you are asking for example potential home owners to support people who have property already and in so doing pricing them out of the market. If it fails the "justice" smell test it will most likey fail the economic test as well.

Sleepy

Would like to see details of some of these ghost estates. Would be great if Daft had a special section for them so first time buyers could see where there's properties they could bid half asking price at etc.

fontanalis

Silverharp2 wrote: »

I cant see why, I paid my mortgage why should I support (or people that dont own a house) people that were reckless or nieve. Surely the people that can afford to run a house should own them.

Don't be selfish, if their house values sky rocketed they would shared the increase with the rest of the country.

fontanalis

Niall Keane wrote: »

You'd rather pay the same amount for millionaire bankers and developers whose family's assets are protected?

See when people lose their homes and they're fire saled you also lose as the value of your property also goes down.

If there was a mortgage-NAMA you could in effect give a moratorium on payments for say 5 years to an effected family so they could retrain to find jobs in another sector. It’s easier to retrain an individual to be productive and to once again continue paying their mortgage than it is to find a profitable use for boom-time priced land in Cavan??? The risk is also spread out. You may stand to lose 300k on an individual, but an individual scheme / plot could cost ..... well think Ringsend?

Logical really!

But logic could never stand up to Irish begrudgery

IT'S NOT F***ING BEGRUDGERY TO EXPECT PEOPLE TO TAKE RSPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN DECISION

g5fd6ow0hseima

Who was the wanker in the audience who suggested that the empty houses in the more affluent areas which fetched high prices in the boom time should not be used for social houses.... instead the social housing should be grouped together. Not just grouped together, but in terraced housing or something....

He made my blood boil. Basically, because some people paid half a million for houses in certain areas, they should be left empty rather than less well off people picking them up for a fraction of the price. Typical nouveau Irish ****

ardmacha

Empty houses in more affluent areas should be sold at reasonable price, as there are plenty of people who would like to live there. No need to leave them empty or sell them to the government. Some profligate people need to sell their big house in an affluent area and move to a smaller (but adequate) house elsewhere to reduce their debts. Then more frugal individuals can go and buy their their big house.

Niall Keane

IT'S NOT F***ING BEGRUDGERY TO EXPECT PEOPLE TO TAKE RSPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR OWN DECISION

Like the shareholders, developers and banks will?

1. The banks "need" recapitalisation?
2. To do this WE, THE LITTLE PEOPLE take on their BAD LOANS or ACTUALISED BUSINESS RISK!!!
3. THE FACT THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A COLLAPSE IN THE ECONOMY AS PEOPLE HAVE LESS TO SPEND, AN INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT, AND REPOSESSIONS , SHOULDN'T PLACE A MORAL OBLIGATION ON THE GOVERNMENT TO PROTECT SAID ORDINARY TAX PAYERS WHO WILL FEEL THE COLD WINDS OF FINANCIAL RUIN DESIGNED BY OTHERS AND WHO'S TAXES ARE FINANCING THE "RECOVERY".
NO WE SHOULD "INVEST" IN LAND IN LONGFORD TO PROP UP AN ALREADY FAILED ENTERPRISE?

BTW just to project a little into the future, when my generation have finished paying for the older generations mess (careful, smart, nothing to do with luck, mortgage paid generation who benefited from the boom), on top of our own mortgage, what do you think will be left for your retirement? Because we have no money left the economy is shrinking, less tax inevitably means less services, hope you enjoy Charles Dickens, because he'll give you a good impression of the healthcare you can expect in a few years when it matters to you. Remember this as you clutch you chest waiting in line in a corridor to be seen by a terminally delayed doctor. And remember that as you slip away those responsible probably still have that chopper and helipad to get them to that private clinic in Switzerland any time they need lipo.

woodseb

isn't there a separate forum for ranting and raving? :rolleyes:

fontanalis

I don't support NAMA either but let's face up to reality, this mess is what happens when you let gombeenism run the country, this is what brown envelopes and tents at the Galway races gets a country. But people still think that rising proprty prices is automatically a good thing.
The sad fact is if the banks failed then it would be a bigger mess, remove anyone from the banks (or from any regulatory baody that should have an IQ in the double digits) who was supposed to be in charge, tough titties to shareholders etc, its a form of gambling.

fontanalis

woodseb wrote: »

isn't there a separate forum for ranting and raving? :rolleyes:

But not for outbursts.

Victor

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0127/1224263210651.html

621 'ghost estates' built across State
CONOR POPE

LEITRIM IS the county most affected by so-called “ghost housing estates”, and it could be at least seven years before house prices in the region stabilise, according to new data released by academics.

The Maynooth-based National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis (Nirsa) yesterday issued a county-by-county breakdown of housing estates where more than half of the properties are empty or remain under development.

It gave details behind its recent claim that more than 300,000 new homes are empty, a figure more than double the official estimate.

Yesterday’s data showed there were some 621 “ghost estates”.

Some 86 of these estates have more than 50 properties, 253 are made up of 21-50 properties, and a further 282 comprise 10-20 properties. The Nirsa study showed that Co Cork had 90 such estates – substantially more than any other county – but that when the figures were broken down on a per capita basis, the most negatively affected counties were Leitrim, Longford, Sligo and Roscommon. Leitrim was found to have 21 ghost housing estates, Roscommon 35, and Sligo 24.

The counties in the midlands along the N4 corridor were by some margin those most negatively affected by the bursting of the property bubble, according to the director of Nirsa, Prof Rob Kitchin. This was because development there had started later than elsewhere in the Republic, he said.

“If you think about it they were the last counties to be developed. The property boom had already stopped when developments in these counties were at their peak and these counties were developing estates far beyond what population growth required,” he said.

He said property demand and supply had been “completely uncoupled” in the midlands and northwest between 2006 and 2009. “Based on population growth, Leitrim would have needed around 588 new houses over that period, yet there were actually 2,945 houses built. That is an oversupply of 401 per cent.”

He said the oversupply problem was likely to be exacerbated by the recession, which would inevitably see people gravitate towards urban areas in search of employment. He estimated it would take seven to 10 years for property prices in the worst-hit areas to return to anything close to their current levels.

He said that, nationally, the oversupply problem could be addressed within three years of the country coming out of recession.

“I fear that no one is going to take responsibility for many of these properties so they will just sit there. Who is going to be the first person to move into one of these estates and take a risk on services being developed?” he asked. “A lot of these houses will undoubtedly have to be knocked and their continued existence will keep the housing market in some areas depressed for a very long time to come.”

Although the figures published are preliminary, Prof Kitchin said they portrayed “an accurate picture of the data”.

Last week Nirsa reported that 300,000 properties were lying empty. This figure was more than double the estimate from Minister for Housing Michael Finneran, who had told the Cabinet there were 100,000-140,000 houses lying empty. The construction industry claimed the true figure was 40,000.

Prof Kitchin decided to calculate the extent of empty housing because official figures do not exist.

His department used Ireland’s national address database – the GeoDirectory, the 2006 Census and Department of Environment figures based on ESB connection points.

ei.sdraob

its interesting to note that they count an estate as more than 10 homes, there are smaller estates than this in just about every country and small village now

and of course one of houses that are incomplete