Big Freeze in early/mid February?

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

start panicking if the new and improved ecm follows suit.

although admittedly with the gfs now backtracking on proper cold taking hold it doesn't look good.

UK met office update for today still have it as cold which I hope extends as far west as here.
UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2010 to Saturday 13 Feb 2010:

Many eastern areas should be dry at first, although with an increasing risk of wintry showers in coastal areas. Western parts are likely to see outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy at times on upslopes, with a risk of snow in northern Scotland. Temperatures probably near normal in the west but rather cold in the east with overnight frost in places. Wintry showers and clear spells likely over the first weekend of February, with rain likely over low ground in the west but snow more likely elsewhere. Temperatures likely to become cold or rather cold with a widespread overnight frost. The cold conditions are likely to continue throughout the second week of February, with easterly or southeasterly winds bringing cold air from the continent and a further risk of overnight frosts.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 30 Jan 2010

derekon

Good thread however time for a reality check after all this ramping about "The Big Freeze - Part 2".

Some posters on this forum are of the view that it will turn very cold after Wednesday of this week. Although everyone is of course entitled to their view, I am gonna run Met Eireann on this one. Look at their forecast for the week ahead afte Wednesday....

THURSDAY: Mild and windy with some rain. Temperatures will rise to 10 or 11 degrees in strengthening southerly winds. Dry in the east at first with bright spells then becoming generally wet and windy as a band of heavy rain moves in across the country from the Atlantic.

More mild muck on the way so!

Derek

nacho libre

indeed the easterly seems to be drifting away. the ecm 12z is crucially siding with the UKMO from T120 and beyond.

so it looks like after tonight and tomorrow it'll be a while before we'll see snow again. not that many places saw snow today anyway.

i had a feeling after the ukmo was being bashed recently it would prove to be correct regarding this situation.

Deep Easterly

Latest ECM at 168hrs:



Wild and wet. Bring it on.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

The trend on the models is quite solid toward much colder conditions in the next 5 - 10 days from the East. The specifics are, of course, uncertain and will be uncertain for a good few days yet.

But the signs are very cold weather from the East is the most likely outcome in the next 5 - 10 days. Whether that is from a Southeasterly, a Northeasterly or an Easterly remains to be seen.

Given temps should reach 11oC or 12oc with mild wet muck on the way by Thursday, would I be right in saying the above charts should not be trusted?!!

Was getting my hopes up for a cold spell but I think now we would need to be about 48 hours from such a spell to have any confidence?

PS, Darkman I understand you were only going on the charts available at that time! My question is , are these charts worth trusting? Would not appear to be!

D

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

Given temps should reach 11oC or 12oc with mild wet muck on the way by Thursday, would I be right in saying the above charts should not be trusted?!!

Was getting my hopes up for a cold spell but I think now we would need to be about 48 hours from such a spell to have any confidence?

PS, Darkman I understand you were only going on the charts available at that time! My question is , are these charts worth trusting? Would not appear to be!

D

Hi,

Met Éireann use these same charts. Every weather organisation use these charts. Met Eireann use charts from the European Center for Medium Worked Forecasts. Same as above. You have to understand that the charts are updated every 6 hours and are subject to change. At best we can only go on trends.


The trend remains towards very cold weather from the East regardless of the operational ECM run this evening. That could change by midnight tonight but that is how I see it anyway. Met Eireann will stick to the ECM charts and give that same forecast all day regardless of any changes on the afternoon run.


The difference here is we don't only use the ECM. There are many models we can use. Some better then others. GFS, UK Met Office, and ECM are the 3 major models. There are other less reliable models too.


I think this forum is fairly accurate most of the time tbh.

I can understand how people get confused sometimes.


For example this is the latest GFS chart for Friday. One of the major models.




So you can see where a balance has to be struck when they are all showing different evolutions. It's very difficult to balance at the moment. All I can say is i, myself, am still going for the much colder option. Some will disagree but that's what makes this forum interesting.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi,

Met Éireann use these same charts. Every weather organisation use these charts. Met Eireann use charts from the European Center for Medium Worked Forecasts. Same as above. You have to understand that the charts are updated every 6 hours and are subject to change. At best we can only go on trends.


The trend remains towards very cold weather from the East regardless of the operational ECM run this evening. That could change by midnight tonight but that is how I see it anyway. Met Eireann will stick to the ECM charts and give that same forecast all day regardless of any changes on the afternoon run.


The difference here is we don't only use the ECM. There are many models we can use. Some better then others. GFS, UK Met Office, and ECM are the 3 major models. There are other less reliable models too.


I think this forum is fairly accurate most of the time tbh.

I can understand how people get confused sometimes.


For example this is the latest GFS chart for Friday. One of the major models.




So you can see where a balance has to be struck when they are all showing different evolutions. It's very difficult to balance at the moment. All I can say is i, myself, am still going for the much colder option. Some will disagree but that's what makes this forum interesting.

Hi Darkman2,

Thanks for the explanation, very clear and easy to understand for a layman like myself.

I can't read the charts and am a bit of a novice so the above GFS chart for Friday does not mean much to me! I take it this chart is showing cold over Britain & Ireland?

I understand that the charts will fluctuate and change...will have to be more patient going forward.

Looking forward to learning a bit on this forum....:)

Derek

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

Hi Darkman2,

Thanks for the explanation, very clear and easy to understand for a layman like myself.

I can't read the charts and am a bit of a novice so the above GFS chart for Friday does not mean much to me! I take it this chart is showing cold over Britain & Ireland?

I understand that the charts will fluctuate and change...will have to be more patient going forward.

Looking forward to learning a bit on this forum....:)

Derek

Gladly,


Forgive me for being a little basic.

The chart above shows a very cold Easterly airflow over Ireland from the continent. The chart above is a synoptic chart showing variations in pressure represented by the lines. Around Low Pressure ("T" on the map above) air flows anti clockwise. Around an area of High Pressure ("H" on the map) air flows clockwise. The closer together the lines (called isobars) are the higher the winds. You can also pick out frontal features, or rain bands, by noting chinks or distortions in the isobars.

The colours on the chart are not temperature btw. That is something called "geopotential heights" which is not all that important for you to know atm. But simply greens and blues mean more rain potential and lower pressure and yellows and reds mean less rain potential and higher pressure.

darkman2

ECM ensembles for 10 days for the 12pm run are out.




The operational run (the red line) is clearly too mild against the vast majority of the other members. So basically the ECM, which shows a return to mild Southwesterlies this evening, is most likely off the mark by quite a bit. The actual outcome should be much colder.

delw

darkman2 wrote: »

Gladly,


Forgive me for being a little basic.

The chart above shows a very cold Easterly airflow over Ireland from the continent. The chart above is a synoptic chart showing variations in pressure represented by the lines. Around Low Pressure ("T" on the map above) air flows anti clockwise. Around an area of High Pressure ("H" on the map) air flows clockwise. The closer together the lines (called isobars) are the higher the winds. You can also pick out frontal features, or rain bands, by noting chinks or distortions in the isobars.

The colours on the chart are not temperature btw. That is something called "geopotential heights" which is not all that important for you to know atm. But simply greens and blues mean more rain potential and lower pressure and yellows and reds mean less rain potential and higher pressure.

cheers for that darkman2,it makes alot more sense&know d basics to look for from now on

Snowaddict

Evening everyone,

A very disappointing latest ECMWF 12Z Operational evolution. Despite it being a warmer member in it's Ensemble suite, the Control run also broadly follows the evolution. Is essence, towards T+168, we are faced with a negative NAO signal, but it's a West-Based Negative NAO. This, in turn, means that the UK & Ireland is on the ''warm'' side of the mean trough, with very cold Northeasterly winds into the Northeast Quarter of the United States & Canada. Today's UKMO 12Z Operational evolution is extremely disappointing.

In the other hand, GFS 12Z Operational is excellent, with an undercutting motion and a very cold Easterly flow by Day 5 - Day 6.

In terms of background signals, a significant warming continues at the 30mb Level, indicated by the latest update on the chart below.

30mb Temperature - North Pole



In addition, the latest CPC Prognostic 500mb 14 Day Height anomoly charts continue to indicate a Mean Northeasterly flow, with Extreme blocking all across the variable North, with multiple centres, as indicated on the chart below.

CPC Prognostic Chart - 14 Day

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

Mixed signals overall then, the 30mb Temperature Profile, AO & NAO Trends and other signals point to strong potential for a cold outbreak, however medium term NWP Guidance is far from promising & in some cases, is in fact very disappointing.

There is a lot of uncertainty & we could well see a return to exceptional blocking on subsequent ECMWF Operational outputs. However, the Multi-Model trends are not promising at the moment, but the background signals appear to be rather consistently promising.

In addition, substantial propagation of the latest warming event at the 30mb Level to the Troposphere is indicated towards Day 10.

SA

nacho libre

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone for sustained cold judging by the latest model outputs as far as I can see. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but it seem there is just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of - AO and other favourable synoptics.
So we'll more than likely have to rely on a Northerly for snow from now on.

Speak Now

Yeap the easterly looks dead in the water now. Was fun watching the models though. Hope Feb isn't to to wet:mad:

nacho libre

So despite the upgrade, to the usully reliable ecmwf model, it was the ukmo which led the way on there being no easterly. The gfs was last to cave in, but it was inevitable that it would.
Joe Bastardi got it spot on for this winter too. The likes of Berlin has seen no let up this winter. While England and Ireland have just flirted with the colder easterly air since the middle of January, as he said we would, with the core of the cold remaining in continental Europe.

jambofc

nacho libre wrote: »

So despite the upgrade, to the usully reliable ecmwf model, it was the ukmo which led the way on there being no easterly. The gfs was last to cave in, but it was inevitable that it would.
Joe Bastardi got it spot on for this winter too. The likes of Berlin has seen no let up this winter. While England and Ireland have just flirted with the colder easterly air since the middle of January, as he said we would, with the core of the cold remaining in continental Europe.

incredibly infuriating how close this winter has been to a once in a lifetime event.

nacho libre

jambofc wrote: »

incredibly infuriating how close this winter has been to a once in a lifetime event.

yeah exactly:(:(

I'm starting to lose hope we'll ever see a winter like those that have gone down in snow folkore.

200motels

I think things will change again, and I have not giving hope, the models are so inconsistent it's unbelievable.

InKonspikuou2

Ireland just isn't the place for snow. It's like watching porn on dial up. You get a glimpse of the good stuff and then the image turns out to be a tranny.

Su Campu

Here's the Weatheronline monthly Forecast issued today.

Valid from 06/02 to 05/03 2010
Signs of a little spring warmth
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Issued: 0800hrs Sunday 31st January 2010
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob [/FONT]

When will this interminably and seemingly long winter end, I ask myself? The patterns suggest we've a way to go just yet, it'll be a slow warm up but have faith; although it'll be a slow affair we'll certainly appreciate any spring warmth when and if it arrives!

This winters patterns appears to have been dominated and controlled by a very large, stubbornly persistent and 'immoveable' block of cold continental arctic air sitting to the east of the British Isles. We have all experienced the effects of this air mass from time to time in varying degrees of severity and persistence and we do still appear to have some way to go yet before its influence is eroded and a major pattern shift takes place, winter will return in various guises over the next forecast period.
High pressure and cold air looks persistently entrenched over the near continent this fending off any major incursion of milder Atlantic systems, these mainly affecting the fringes of western Britain and Europe. The influence of high pressure looks set to increase through the middle of the month the weather settling in a rather cold perhaps easterly dominated flow, with low pressure desperately attempting to dislodge the cold air, therefore let battle commence.
Initially the cold air will be the victor; however I have a hunch that during the latter stages of February we could see a shift to a west to south-westerly flow pushing through western Britain this then pilling its way across remaining areas. As the month changes once again so does the pattern with high pressure building back as a large feature conditions settling across all areas, chilly on the whole overnight although temperatures responding to increasing spring sunshine by day.

*06/02/10 - 12/02/10*
An east to west divide may open up here in response to persistent high pressure and cold feed of continental air from the southeast and less cold Atlantic conditions to the west brought about on lax southerly low pressure flow.
Western Britain may see some patchy cloud and outbreaks of light rain from time to time whilst the east remains mainly settled and dry with brighter spells, chilly through central and eastern areas with overnight frost, scattered wintry shower at times.
A general countrywide rise in pressure is expected through the middle of the period with a ridge extending into the UK from the east, conditions settling everywhere scattered wintry showers affecting the east but generally dry although remaining cold.

*13/02/10 - 19/02/10*
High pressure over the UK and to the east looks likely to remain as large and persistent block to the Atlantic systems attempting to dislodge the cold but settled conditions; initially the situation looks rather static. However there are signs that the reign of high pressure may be coming to a conclusion during this period as the influence continental anticyclone is eroded from the west by low pressure.
A rather 'messy' pattern is indicated to be taking place through the latter stages of this period with a wintry transition eventually giving way to less cold, cloudy and windy weather extending from the west and southwest, the mitigating effects of the Atlantic air perhaps however not appreciated just yet. Low pressure perhaps deflected southward for a time a cold eastern flow across southern Britain.
The 'damage' to the block looks to have now been sufficient to allow the next Atlantic system in the queue to make progress right across the UK, a mix of sleet and snow ahead of milder air crossing all areas, rather windy and feeling cool for a time but temperatures recovering later.

*20/02/10 - 26/02/10*
If the pattern proves to be correct then it'll be 'all change' here as the flow should be dominated by quite a strong south-westerly driven by low pressure to the west or northwest and higher pressure over central Europe, all areas much milder.
Milder Atlantic conditions come with a price, this mainly at the expense of any brightness and dry weather, which will probably be reserved for sheltered south-eastern and eastern Britain, south-western, western and north-western areas likely to see outbreaks of rain from time to time and a rather strong breeze.
The latter stages of the period looks likely to remain rather unsettled everywhere with outbreaks of rain but generally on the mild side for most areas, the hint perhaps of colder air tucking back into the north with wintry showers for a time.

*27/02/10 - 05/03/10*
The pattern changes here once more as pressure rise and a large anticyclone settles over the UK, showers should die away and winds fall light across all areas.
By day we'll be chasing areas of cloud, temperatures should respond to increasing levels of sunshine and it'll be feeling more 'spring-like' perhaps in sheltered areas, however overnight frosts will be widespread and quite sharp.
There is the hint that for a time high may drift westward, allowing a noticeably colder northerly flow to establish with wintry showers appearing once more over higher ground and exposed areas, bright but chilly through remaining areas.

*06/03/10 - 10/03/10*
High pressure should slowly edge back east or south-eastward across the country, winds falling lighter once more, so perhaps not feeling as chilly as the effects of spring sunshine are felt.
The southern half of the UK should remain mainly settled and dry as high pressure drifts south, northern Britain perhaps becoming cloudier with patchy rain as a light westerly to south-westerly establishes around the northern flank.

Simon & Captain Bob

Graces7

Yet for us? Four weeks cut off by snow...And for many others.

nacho libre wrote: »

yeah exactly:(:(

I'm starting to lose hope we'll ever see a winter like those that have gone down in snow folkore.

nacho libre

Graces7 wrote: »

Yet for us? Four weeks cut off by snow...And for many others.

i appreciate that for those who live up a mountain, like yourself, that ye got more than enough snow this winter
However, i meant all of us on low ground, who like snow, but didn't get much at all out of the big freeze - despite the charts and general background signals looking very favourable for significant snow fall to occur at some point during the big freeze.

Kippure

Anyone who saw the country file forecast for the week ahead would of heard that this return to normal tempetures is brief as they stated they are un sure how long this will last.

Rebelbrowser

As I started this thread I was about to formally close it as a case of "close but no cigar..." until BBC's weather site posted this monthly forecast in the last 10 minutes...they use pretty definite language (love the bit about snow in the South too)

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010
Bitter cold returning

High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.


Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010
Staying very cold

There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

200motels

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

As I started this thread I was about to formally close it as a case of "close but no cigar..." until BBC's weather site posted this monthly forecast in the last 10 minutes...they use pretty definite language (love the bit about snow in the South too)

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010
Bitter cold returning

High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.


Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010
Staying very cold

There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

All the models are in disagreement mild and wet for the next few weeks.

Redsunset

200motels wrote: »

All the models are in disagreement mild and wet for the next few weeks.

Well there must be some confidence in that forecast otherwise, why bother?

Perhaps there looking at the bigger picture too.

Kippure

200motels wrote: »

All the models are in disagreement mild and wet for the next few weeks.

Past 96hrs is wrong . The models cant cope.

Pangea

Wow the bbc monthly forecast is fantasy material , looks pretty good, Im very suprised they wrote that.

Rebelbrowser

200motels wrote: »

All the models are in disagreement mild and wet for the next few weeks.

That may well be the case (whilst I wish I did - I know nothing about weather forecasting) but as a layman that forecast seems pretty definite from an organisation of the authority of the BBC when talking about a potentially huge weather event just 7 days away. They must have some backing for it, no? If I'm talking through my hat (very possible) I'm sure the usual suspects on here can show me the error of my logic.

Kippure

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That may well be the case (whilst I wish I did - I know nothing about weather forecasting) but as a layman that forecast seems pretty definite from an organisation of the authority of the BBC when talking about a potentially huge weather event just 7 days away. They must have some backing for it, no? If I'm talking through my hat (very possible) I'm sure the usual suspects on here can show me the error of my logic.

Just keep up to date with the latest runs. We,ll see some big swings and roundabouts on the models this week.

yellowlabrador

As a nature freak, I always keep an eye on the wild life in Winter. IN a normal year, the frogs appear in Mid January here in West Cork. Last year it was end of December when they first came out.
This year NOTHING yet. not a croak, so are they all dead, or do they know something we don't? By this time of year, they are out in their hundreds and near water, lots of them get squashed on the roads. The same with toads.
I work nights and, at this time of year,at 4am on a bright moonlit night, on the egde of town, there is a veritable dawn chorus at this time of year. This year..... nothing, the birds are quiet.

I know it isn't very scientific, but could this point to more cold to come?