Big Freeze in early/mid February?

200motels

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That may well be the case (whilst I wish I did - I know nothing about weather forecasting) but as a layman that forecast seems pretty definite from an organisation of the authority of the BBC when talking about a potentially huge weather event just 7 days away. They must have some backing for it, no? If I'm talking through my hat (very possible) I'm sure the usual suspects on here can show me the error of my logic.

I hope they are right, and to be honest I could very well be talking through my own hat.

Joe Public

yellowlabrador wrote: »

As a nature freak, I always keep an eye on the wild life in Winter. IN a normal year, the frogs appear in Mid January here in West Cork. Last year it was end of December when they first came out.
This year NOTHING yet. not a croak, so are they all dead, or do they know something we don't? By this time of year, they are out in their hundreds and near water, lots of them get squashed on the roads. The same with toads.
I work nights and, at this time of year,at 4am on a bright moonlit night, on the egde of town, there is a veritable dawn chorus at this time of year. This year..... nothing, the birds are quiet.

I know it isn't very scientific, but could this point to more cold to come?

My guess is that the cold spell has knocked them back a bit and they will catch up. The ground temps are still a bit cold so maybe the frogs are hibernating a bit longer. I don't know about the birds, there's plenty around and the are a bit quiet in the mornings. Does the dawn chorus go on all year round or do the take a break for the winter? or only when it is very cold? Other than that I don't believe frogs or birds know what weather is coming no more than the people on this forum:)

yellowlabrador

My guess is that the cold spell has knocked them back a bit and they will catch up. The ground temps are still a bit cold so maybe the frogs are hibernating a bit longer. I don't know about the birds, there's plenty around and the are a bit quiet in the mornings. Does the dawn chorus go on all year round or do the take a break for the winter? or only when it is very cold? Other than that I don't believe frogs or birds know what weather is coming no more than the people on this forum

i hear the birds in early summer too, but that's a proper dawn chorus. in January February the birds sing while it's dark, the sun rises after 7 am. I've kept notes for the past 5 years on planets, the moon, flightpaths of swans , blossoming of black and hawthorn, the first leaves on ash and oak etc.
I saw my first frog this evening, so who knows, sprig might be here soon..
I don't know how much science is behind this, but with climate change coming, it's helpful if we all keep diaries, that way scientists can make some statistics

yellowlabrador

Joe Public wrote: »

My guess is that the cold spell has knocked them back a bit and they will catch up. The ground temps are still a bit cold so maybe the frogs are hibernating a bit longer. I don't know about the birds, there's plenty around and the are a bit quiet in the mornings. Does the dawn chorus go on all year round or do the take a break for the winter? or only when it is very cold? Other than that I don't believe frogs or birds know what weather is coming no more than the people on this forum:)

i hear the birds in early summer too, but that's a proper dawn chorus. in January February the birds sing while it's dark, the sun rises after 7 am. I've kept notes for the past 5 years on planets, the moon, flightpaths of swans , blossoming of black and hawthorn, the first leaves on ash and oak etc.
I saw my first frog this evening, so who knows, sprig might be here soon..
I don't know how much science is behind this, but with climate change coming, it's helpful if we all keep diaries, that way scientists can make some statistics

lucernarian

I thought I'd post this chart here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The ECM chart for the same time is far more zonal and doesn't look like that chart. But the GFS chart is a nice straw to clutch at for 6 days away?!

nacho libre

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

I thought I'd post this chart here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The ECM chart for the same time is far more zonal and doesn't look like that chart. But the GFS chart is a nice straw to clutch at for 6 days away?!

the GFS on its 18hrs run a few days back was wrong within T-72hrs

the GFS doesn't seem to fully factor in strength of Atlantic in its output. However, if the ecm and ukmo in their ouputs tonight were to back it then it might be worth getting our hopes up.

Speak Now

Bloody one extreme or the other with the GFS :mad:

Probably flip back tonight :rolleyes:

Doesn't stop me getting my hopes up though

Looking for 12z UKMO and ECM now to how much Fantasy it is :pac:

By which time the 12Z GFS will be totally different to the 6Z anyway

lucernarian

From past experience, the GFS is the most "progressive" of the models. I can only assume that as each model develops over time, some may then become faster at developing situations than others etc. By the same line, I would think of the ECM as being the least progressive model. Though this can switch around, like I said.

Now usually "progressive" means that the Atlantic is roaring in quite quickly, for me. Perhaps the high pressure cell springs up out of the North Sea too quickly to be taken seriously. That is, the HP development very progressive and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt? I don't have any ensembles for that run as I can never find them on the net. Perhaps they would paint a clearer picture of the prediction...

Also, I've no idea what the GFS got wrong in the short timeframe recently. I'm keeping a low profile until it's time to ramp once again:D

Rebelbrowser

Its my thread so I'm ramping! Without knowing anything about weather, noting that in the last 48 hrs the models have flipped one way then the other 3 times, and noting even now that the GFS (and I don't even know what that stands for) is out on its own, I nonetheless confidently predict a big freeze and heavy snow from next Tuesday 9 February onwards! (its more fun to ramp!)

Redsunset

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Its my thread so I'm ramping! Without knowing anything about weather, noting that in the last 48 hrs the models have flipped one way then the other 3 times, and noting even now that the GFS (and I don't even know what that stands for) is out on its own, I nonetheless confidently predict a big freeze and heavy snow from next Tuesday 9 February onwards! (its more fun to ramp!)

Funny how you've picked the 9th onwards,as i have also been telling people that now.Well not so much big freeze,heavy snow but turning colder all the same.

The meto are sticking with colder outcome regardless of mild blips in models.

Its all a mess at the moment trying to predict even 3 days ahead accurately.

More energy seems to be going into southern arm of jet now,so thats much better news.


Lots more tweeking to go but overall it does seem to be pointing to colder conditions by end of next week,we'll just have to stay watching and waiting.

nacho libre

doubt it'll come true but it's nice to look at anyway
:pac:

darkman2

Following on from this mornings very cold 06z GFS and GEM charts the latest model runs continue the trend toward much colder Easterly winds.

GFS




UK Met Office




So definately a much colder period is more likely now next week.

DOCARCH

Nice! Hope it comes off. This day/time last year I was up to my knees (well not quite) in snow - ahh, the memories.

Speak Now

darkman2 wrote: »

Following on from this mornings very cold 06z GFS and GEM charts the latest model runs continue the trend toward much colder Easterly winds.

So definately a much colder period is more likely now next week.

Don't please dont

Snowaddict

I've been watching NWP Guidance avidly for days now, a solid 96 Hours & this period has seen the most rapid inter and intra model variance that I can ever recall seeing. Correspondingly, NWP Verification has dipped markedly on the latest round of Verification Statistics. Commentary has been almost impossible because most comments become entirely invalid again within 12 Hours with such volatility.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

Such uncertainty is quite often indicate of a change coming about in the dominant largescale pattern. This afternoon, we are beginning to possibly see some consensus, but we are far from a certain outcome yet. Clearly, the UKMO 12Z Operational Evolution is an exceptional turnaround from it's 00Z Operational output & now shows a very blocked pattern, with a deep cold pool being advected Westwards towards the UK & Ireland. Undercutting begins to develop at T+144. In addition, such a pattern would become discontinuous for some time, as indicated on the Northern Hemisphere plot of UKMO 12Z T+144 03/02/2010.



There is still a strong signal for propogation to the troposhere of the recent significant warming event at the 30mb Level. Also noteworthy is that this was not an MMW event by technical definition, but a sufficient amount of warming did indeed take place to support the development of a largescale blocking, provided that propagation should take place in a manner which would support a colder pattern for the UK & Ireland.

Furthermore, further warming is quite possible at the 30mb Level as we continue ahead over the coming days, after a period of cooling in the past three days:

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1

ECMWF, has equally, modelled some exceptionally cold evolutions over the past few days, notably the 00Z and 12Z Operational evolutions on Monday just past. The developments on today's UKMO 12Z Operational are very similar to this initial pattern that was modelled by ECMWF. Overnight ECMWF Guidance was certainly improvement and did indicate significant propensity towards the Atlantic struggling to make any real progress across the Ireland & subsequently, the UK. Weak blocking patterns were modelled as persisting to the Variable North, as a segment of the Polar Vortex drops into Scandinavia.



Summary

Multiple background factors continue to support an evolution towards a cold outbreak during this month & there should be no real change in these over the coming 10 Days at least. Developments are rapid at present, with vast uncertainty in any pattern beyond T+72. There is clearly a bias towards a Southerly Tracking Jetstream, with Height Rises developing across the variable the North towards T+72 & a subsequent stalling Mid Atlantic Trough supporting Northward Warm Air Advection. A propensity towards an undercutting motion is also indicated.

Today's GFS 12Z Operational Evolution remains constant, as does the 12Z Control Run which brings bitterly cold conditions Westwards.

Much more volatility to come over consecutive runs, with many changes. But the potential is certainly there, as it has been for some 5 - 7 Days now, for a Westward advection of relatively deep or even deep cold from the Northeast. We need a lot of luck to get this pattern to fall into place but it will be no surprise if it does indeed develop.

Too difficult to call with any clear certainty at this moment in time, but the potential is most certainly there.

SA

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

So definately a much colder period is more likely now next week.

Definitely?

I'm not buying it.
For the last couple of years I've not bothered with post 120 charts.
This year,I'm not believing post 96...though I do get excited when something good makes it to 120.

I'd phrase it just like the met office forecasters do and say,theres considerable uncertainty but theres a chance that the cold might come back.
Theres as good a chance it won't obviously.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Definitely?

I'm not buying it.
For the last couple of years I've not bothered with post 120 charts.
This year,I'm not believing post 96...though I do get excited when something good makes it to 120.

I'd phrase it just like the met office forecasters do and say,theres considerable uncertainty but theres a chance that the cold might come back.
Theres as good a chance it won't obviously.

lol. I did not say definately it would be cold...I said it is definately more likely now...of course it can go the other way and be mild but we can only go on what is put in front of us and for the moment signs are toward colder weather. For the moment...

Just to add to SA's analysis there.It's nice to see something half decent appearing more or less twice or three times now in all the chopping and changing.
However - In that UKMO 144 chart-effectively whats bringing that Easterly is some weak ridging through Scandi from our friend the russian/siberian high.

Thats a very tentative/shakey evolution to rely on-reason being without it,the air over Ireland might be southerly or SSE.
We're also depending on shallow lows in northern france to be in the right place at the right time to combine with the ridging.

My head is telling me 2 things about that (1) that it's a big ask and (2) even if you got something similar it would be too weak to last-there being too much energy modeled in the atlantic for it to stay intact.
The block would keep the forcefield against the atlantic at best to the middle of the north sea and we would have a continuation of what we have now and whats likely into the weekend.

It must be very frustrating for met personell to have their best technology so stumped by mother nature.
No doubt ,the programme writers are learning from this one and will come up with something that might outwit her next time she throws up inponderables to them.

darkman2

The UKMO at 144hrs looks stable enough to me. Only option there, IMO, is more undercutting. The ridging from the South is not strong enough for the type of disruption that would smash that block. My opinion anyway.


The ECM is coming out shortly and I suspect it will offer more support but we will see.


Better in this format btw

I'd not be that confident yet dm2 simply because it's like 6 days away and I do believe a scandi ridge of 1020 and a french undercut of a shallow low is very shakey indeed.

Lets hope pressure builds a lot stronger than that in scandi-northern scandi preferably.
Lets see what the ECM does at that range.
Lets see if something better than this arrives sub 120 in the ukmo and the ecm.
Theres no point in a fly by night weak easterly either.

eoinor

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd not be that confident yet dm2 simply because it's like 6 days away and I do believe a scandi ridge of 1020 and a french undercut of a shallow low is very shakey indeed.

Can someone explain undercutting please?

darkman2

Undercutting - When an area of Low pressure moves under an area of high pressure. In the North Hemisphere this brings Easterly winds:)


ECM is coming out.


120hrs Easterly.







144hrs Northeasterly - very cold air coming down from Scandinavia. So a fair bit of support so far.

various people may have different interpretations but I understand an undercut to be [in this case] a low pressure area that drives far to the south of an area of high pressure but sufficiently near to the high to tighten the isobars inbetween strengthening the flow of air [in this case Easterly].

The ukmo have an undercut so weak,it may aswell not be there.
It's important not to have it too far north as it would advect [blow in ] milder air.You need it over or to the south of England.
In the above,it is in northern france and so weak that combined with the very weak scandi ridge,you wouldn't dry your clothes out in it in my opinion,never mind advect enough cold air west fast enough to make a difference.

In a word,slowly advected air is quickly modified air ie no use.

darkman2

The 120hrs chart is not my primary interest although it is still very cold at the surface. It's what comes next!:)




BTW the air circulating around that area of Low Pressure out of Scandianavia is orignated from Polar regions. Snow fest for some if that comes off...

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Undercutting - When an area of Low pressure moves under an area of high pressure. In the North Hemisphere this brings Easterly winds:)


ECM is coming out.


120hrs Easterly.







144hrs Northeasterly - very cold air coming down from Scandinavia. So a fair bit of support so far.

Well thats a bit vague aswell but better than nothing.
Thats a southeasterly at 120 btw not an easterly and with a useless fetch from the cote d'azur.
The 144 is a peculiar non text book chart.It is more of a col than a notheasterly and given it's only 24hrs after a cote d'azur fetch,it's going to be another wet day.

After 144,if you put up eyecandy,All I'll be able to say is,it's academic and not realistic.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

The 120hrs chart is not my primary interest although it is still very cold at the surface. It's what comes next!:)


BTW the air circulating around that area of Low Pressure out of Scandianavia is orignated from Polar regions. Snow fest for some if that comes off...

It's plausible but the devil is in the detail and thats not reliable at 168,144 or even 120.
Lately not even at 96 no need for me to tell you that,we all know it.

Thats the type of evolution that some people have been wishing could come out of this over on NW in the past week.
I don't ever recall anything remotely like it in my lifetime ever and I'm around a long time [too long...]
In fact it's the only way you could in my opinion see an Easterly flow without a proper Scandi high.
I'm not buying anything like it just yet.
Fingers and toes crossed folks untill monday or tuesday of next week.
If scenes like the above are still post 120 by then,it's probably going to be another post paddy's day Easterly if any and a waste.

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

Well thats a bit vague aswell but better than nothing.
Thats a southeasterly at 120 btw not an easterly and with a useless fetch from the cote d'azur.
The 144 is a peculiar non text book chart.It is more of a col than a notheasterly and given it's only 24hrs after a cote d'azur fetch,it's going to be another wet day.

After 144,if you put up eyecandy,All I'll be able to say is,it's academic and not realistic.

I can't get back in here since the problem and have sent an email to the guys to try and get myself unlocked but to no success.

Just had to log in and comment on the above; you seriously think it would be wet? The cold pool would be incredibly intense probably down to -12c at 850hpa level entering into the east at this stage.

ECM is epic, preference for a little higher pressure to our north perhaps but its brilliant.

UKM is brilliant at 144hrs and GFS is interesting.

A great turn around from the models tonight.

Interesting times ahead

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

Fingers and toes crossed folks untill monday or tuesday of next week.
If scenes like the above are still post 120 by then,it's probably going to be another post paddy's day Easterly if any and a waste.

Ridge to the northeast still holding on. If this easterly does come off as per the latest runs, then I hope it is more deeply continental based than the one in the first part of Jan, which was more from the NE.

Weathercheck2

Weathercheck2 wrote: »

I can't get back in here since the problem and have sent an email to the guys to try and get myself unlocked but to no success.

Just had to log in and comment on the above; you seriously think it would be wet? The cold pool would be incredibly intense probably down to -12c at 850hpa level entering into the east at this stage.

ECM is epic, preference for a little higher pressure to our north perhaps but its brilliant.

UKM is brilliant at 144hrs and GFS is interesting.

A great turn around from the models tonight.

Interesting times ahead

I do think it will be wet[initially anyway-other than that it's too far out to comment reliably] because not enough cold air will advect west to us fast enough.
The low coming in from the south is also bringing mild air which the easterly which is slack [too slack] will have to neutralise first.
Theres no way -12 uppers would get into the East of Ireland that fast.
I've never seen it happen before and remember weather even extreme cold weather is patternistic by nature.
Also remember that we are much further west and much closer to the pesky atlantic than most of the kent and home counties based posters on Two and Net weather.
Their excitement is not our excitement.

I do agree it's more what we want to be see'ing model wize but ,as I say the devils in the detail and the detail is not in 120 plus charts.

When I said I never saw this type of evolution before I meant it.
The only times I ever saw low pressures sliding south west from scandi to affect us was when there was a solid block of high pressure to the south of iceland aiding their slide.
Thats not there so I'm not convinced this is epic.
It might be temporarally for the home counties but not us without that.

Thats my take on it anyhow and I'm sticking with it for now as theres not enough reliable information.
I hope Tomáz is doing country tracks on sunday though

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ridge to the northeast still holding on. If this easterly does come off as per the latest runs, then I hope it is more deeply continental based than the one in the first part of Jan, which was more from the NE.

well it's worying that Evelyn was so sure of herself on the latest forecast. either met eireann will come out of this looking very well or they'll have egg on their face. although given the models are struggling even at t96 you can't be too harsh on them if they get it wrong about next week. however, to my untrained eye it looks like there is too much energy in the atlantic, to ensure the core of cold spreads back westwards, yet not enough to dismantle the block.
so i have a feeling it's more of the same, and that's something the models seems to have been consistent about despite the chopping and changing.