Big Freeze in early/mid February?

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

I've just noticed something on the zonal wind charts and somewhat changes my perspective a little.

Could be a load of Bollox but just maybe an extended cold period is in motion.
View strat warming thread to see what crap im talking about.

perhaps you could clarify something in relation to that, over on netweather some people were saying that the high to the northwest will likely sink in over us, rather than eventually retrogressing(?) northwards, due to insufficient warming in the stratosphere.

do you think this is now unlikely based on your latest post?

Redsunset

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps you could clarify something in relation to that, over on netweather some people were saying that the high to the northwest will likely sink in over us, rather than eventually retrogressing(?) northwards, due to insufficient warming in the stratosphere.

do you think this is now unlikely based on your latest post?

yes I think there is a much greater chance of increased heights later.

Just where is question.

A high could sit over us for a time before getting on its bike toward greenland and probably end up west based sitting between eastern canada and greenland.

There probably will be icelandic heights too attached.

Too early yet but this seems to be a step in the right direction

patneve2

GFS 12Z much better (so far) than 06Z . . .

spideog7

Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast wrote:

Rest of Today
A chance of snow late this morning...then snow this afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight
Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Saturday
Snow in the morning...then snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Just checked the radar and it should be here in about 10 minutes. Right now it's dry and frosty and it's beautiful, I don't want sloppy snow... except for sledding!

Redsunset

IRELAND, Weather Forecast
Rest of Today
A chance of rain late this morning...then rain this afternoon. rain accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight
Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Additional rain accumulation 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday
rain in the morning...then rain showers in the afternoon. Total RAIN accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

thecretinhop

Just seen two salters salting coming out of galway city, very weird..

owenc

thecretinhop wrote: »

Just seen two salters salting coming out of galway city, very weird..

whats weird about that ive seen them nearly every week since december?...

owenc

owenc wrote: »

whats weird about that ive seen them nearly every week since december?...

well you are in the "united kingdom"...they've a bigger cheque book for the salt...

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

well you are in the "united kingdom"...they've a bigger cheque book for the salt...

Here we go jealousy strikes once more

nacho libre

ah it's hard not to be jealous when you're hoarding all the snow for yourself;)

Snowaddict

Subtle changes once again on the latest UKMO 12Z Operational evolution, but it is also relatively similar to that of GFS 12Z Operational.

The first signs of colder air being advected Westwards across the UK & Ireland are now in reach at T+72, with 850mb temperatures of -6, even -7 into Eastern areas later this coming Monday, as pressure begins to fall slightly and a fresh Easterly flow becomes established - introducing a wind chill factor:

12Z UKMO T+72



Throughout the week, towards Thursday, very cold conditions persist with Easterly & Northeasterly winds, generally light to moderate in strength, falling slacker also on some occasions. There are quite solid indications of persistent Heights to the variable North out to T+144. These Heights could also begin to link up with a strong core of High Pressure centred over Eastern Europe and Russia later in the week. Towards T+120 & T+144, as HP begins to retrograde and back Northwest to an extent, there is the threat of an even more unstable and possibly somewhat more cyclonic Easterly pattern approaching.

Conditions generally very cold throughout, with severe frosts quite possible at night time. There is the threat of light sleet & eventually all snow showers in Eastern areas between T+72 and T+144.

Medium Term Indications

There are also increasing indications in the medium term that we will see even more enhanced propagation of the latest warming event at the 30mb level to the Troposphere, as pointed out very well also by Redsunset. This is beginning to come into evidence now at the T+144 timeframe & could well enhance Height Rises to the variable North.

The latest 6-10 Day NOAA 500mb Height Anomoly chart indicates the aforementioned pattern quite well:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

Both the North Atlantic Oscillation & Arctic Oscillation are also forecast to trend continuously negative for 7 days at least.



Summary

In summary then, present indications suggest that a much colder pattern will indeed become established from next Monday as relatively, but not excessively deep cold air begins to back Westwards across the UK & Ireland. There is the risk of light snow showers in Eastern areas during the midweek period in particular, however there is no current signal for widespread or heavy snow showers, with pressure generally remaining between 1010mb and 1020mb across the country.

Later in the week, a somewhat more cyclonic Easterly/Northeasterly airflow may become established across the country, with even deeper cold arriving.

Overall confidence on the arrival of a much colder pattern is now at about 85%.

SA

patneve2

owen, weather isn't a competition.

irishdub14

jesus, have a flight to catch next thursday, this is the first time im wishing snow doesnt fall!!

owenc

patneve2 wrote: »

owen, weather isn't a competition.

that isnt what i said or ment i was just telling them that it isnt a surprise to see a salter considering they were here since december... and then they got jealous..

LEIN

owenc wrote: »

that isnt what i said or ment i was just telling them that it isnt a surprise to see a salter considering they were here since december... and then they got jealous..

What on earth are you talking about?

Snowaddict

irishdub14 wrote: »

jesus, have a flight to catch next thursday, this is the first time im wishing snow doesnt fall!!

You may just be in luck then

The latest ECMWF 12Z Operational Guidance, while still suggesting a very cold spell developing, with winds eminating predominately from the East, downlpays the risk of any organised snowfall or indeed any organised snow showers.

In general, the potency of the cold, to T+168 on the 12Z Guidance is not quite as potent as the January 2010 Cold Spell. However, towards T+144 the flow does turn more due Easterly & is more continental sourced, with 850mb temperatures of -8 being advected into Ireland.

In general, present guidance suggests only the risk of light snow showers out to Thursday/Friday of next week, albeit with a prolonged spell of blocking and winds generally eminating from the East, perhaps becoming more continental sourced towards Midweek & thereafter, which, despite relatively high pressure readings, could lead to the potential for light snow showers in Eastern areas.

SA

Snowaddict

In addition to the above, it is worth noting that ECMWF 12Z Operational is remarkably consistent tonight & does indeed model a prolonged cold spell..

Now, anything beyond T+120 in general at the moment should be treated with suspicion, but I think it's worth noting that tonight's ECMWF Medium Term Guidance to Day 7 & Beyond is very consistent with it's Stratospheric forecasts.

Extreme blocking is indicated towards T+192 with a vast continental Easterly flow, one which Deep Easterly would certainly be happy with :cool:

ECMWF 12Z Op - 05/02/2010



Such an evolution would also offer the risk of ongoing light snow showers in Eastern areas.

SA

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

Extreme blocking is indicated towards T+192 with a vast continental Easterly flow, one which Deep Easterly would certainly be happy with :cool:

ECMWF 12Z Op - 05/02/2010



Such an evolution would also offer the risk of ongoing light snow showers in Eastern areas.

SA

Classic looking chart SA . Gives me a shiver down the aul back. Let's hope it actually verifies. Some beautiful skyscapes to be had if that plays off!

lucernarian

I'm very suprised that the Atlantic could be stifled so much and this is in Februrary where it would be returning to life if anything.

I am hoping for not so much a prolonged deep cold with showers peppering Ireland, as we saw what that leads to back in December and January. I'd rather have a couple of days of disruptive snow than a prolonged period of burst pipes, massive heating bills and A&Es full of injured people.

Donegal and Wicklow had decent accumulations over the past spell, but apart from heavy wet snow on higher populated ground in Ireland, it's been quite snow-free.

Is there anything in the NWP models to suggest organised precipitation like troughs or else the Atlantic doing battle with the cold air? My look on the charts suggests nothing whatsoever. And Polar Lows?! Pah.

If anyone has the time to find the historic charts,in january '85 [it may have been february but I think it was january and it was definitely '85] in an Easterly, a shallow low developed off wexford and meandered northwards hugging the East coast from Dublin south to Rosslare.
It gave several inches in Dublin,it' snowed from about 11 in the morning right through to about 7 in the evening.
Dublin bus stopped at about 4.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

If anyone has the time to find the historic charts,in january '85 [it may have been february but I think it was january and it was definitely '85] in an Easterly, a shallow low developed off wexford and meandered northwards hugging the East coast from Dublin south to Rosslare.
It gave several inches in Dublin,it' snowed from about 11 in the morning right through to about 7 in the evening.
Dublin bus stopped at about 4.

It will be easy enough to rustle up something. Any idea at all of date?

darkman2

Certainly going to turn much colder now from Monday. The details like 850hpa temps and precipitation will have to wait a couple of more days. Also some relatively minor differences still between the models. The temperature profile looks like it will be broadly similar to January's event. Also the ECM charts tonight are very cold at the surface aswell. Ice and frost becoming widespread again and those snow showers getting going on the East coast. Contrary to opinion above, which I rspect, the ECM after 168hrs shows a cyclonic flow as opposed to anticyclonic so I think showers would be a bit beefier then suggested above. But thats a while out yet.

forkassed

This may interest some snow freaks

Snow storm bears down on US capital


Light flakes started falling around noon (1700 GMT) in downtown D.C. as forecasters warned 30 inches (75 centimeters) or more of heavy, wet snow, accompanied by powerful winds, could fall through Saturday in Washington, Baltimore and surroundings. It could be the heaviest snowfall since January 1922 in the U.S. capital.


Webcam

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It will be easy enough to rustle up something. Any idea at all of date?

I've no idea of the date except I think it was january-it was definitely 85 and the easterly[maybe northeasterly] went on for at least a week with light snow showers that stuck prior to the day long event.

nacho libre

damn. i was hoping for active troughs moving from west to east. if only just to see the terror on Jerry Murphy's face:p still, if the ecm can be trusted paddy1 and anyone who enjoys high heating bills should be happy:pac:

also, as was noted earlier the longer it lasts the greater potential for something unexpected to crop up for those in the east and south east. i've resigned myself to the fact i won't be seeing significant fall of snow this winter. so i'm just looking forward to the cold and crisp air and hopefully it'll eventually get cold enough for frost to stay on the trees by day

Redsunset

The only bend in the river i can see is this.







What you think BB

Thats it I'd say.
From personal experience,I can tell you the irish sea delivered in that set up.
Good deep snow including a shallow low in the flow.

nacho libre

Published at 10:00, 1 February BBC

(Next update at 10:00, 8 February)

Written by Jay Wynne

Summary
Briefly milder then very, very cold
As January draws to a close we can confirm that for the whole of the UK, December and January have been the coldest since the winter of 1981/1982. In Scotland it has been the coldest December and January since records began, way back in 1914. It looks like February will do nothing to bring the average temperature up a bit, in fact quite the opposite.


Monday 1 February 2010 to Sunday 7 February 2010

Eventually turning milder
It will take until about Wednesday for the whole of the UK to get back into the milder westerly airstream from the Atlantic. Before then it does turn briefly milder in Scotland with some rain and hill snow, but we're soon back into the colder northerly airstream. Further south it will be a little milder and wetter through Monday night into Tuesday. The second half of the week and into the weekend sees west or southwesterly winds across the UK. With that comes milder conditions, but also bands of rain in association with low pressure systems. During Wednesday, as the transition happens, there could be some significant snow from the Midlands northwards.

Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010

Bitter cold returning
High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.

Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010

Staying very cold
There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.

Next week
Will the cold march into March?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

they look to be right about the cold coming back(i hope i haven't jinked it by saying that)
it would be fantastic if it does last long as they suggest. although their forecast is for the uk so it's quite possible the atlantic could get back in here. of course in the ideal set-up it would be given a bloody nose and sent packing each time it squared up to the colder air over us.

Deep Easterly

The 17th of Jan 85 looks chilly also:

850's:



500's:



Looking at the stats, a very cold month. Severe frost recorded every night for the first 20 days of the month at both Claremorris and Galway city stations and again towards the end of the month. It was actually much warmer in the east (relatively speaking). Snow also was not exclusively confined to the east. Sounds like a classic month. Will try and post up some countrywide stats later.

It would have been that week alright DE.
Feb '86 iirc was similar and then glorious jan 87.
Those were the spoiled 80's where you had a week of snow nearly every year at some point.

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

It would have been that week alright DE.
Feb '86 iirc was similar and then glorious jan 87.
Those were the spoiled 80's where you had a week of snow nearly every year at some point.

Feb 86'. The supreme of all weather events and probably the most easterly month we had in the 20th century. Will never happen again on the scale, at least in our lifetime I would reckon.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Feb 86'. The supreme of all weather events and probably the most easterly month we had in the 20th century. Will never happen again on the scale, at least in our lifetime I would reckon.

so what were the 850mb temps like back then and how much lieing snow was there?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

so what were the 850mb temps like back then and how much lieing snow was there?

Not much snow, and what little there was tended to be along the east coast; Overall, it was one of the of the driest months on record.

Back to January 1985, here are some of the monthly means from Met Eireann stations for that month:



Looks colder overall than January 2010, esp at inland stations.

Speak Now

owenc wrote: »

Here we go jealousy strikes once more

We'll see who's jealous in the summer :P

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

We'll see who's jealous in the summer :P

Too right! The north of Ireland might be the snow capital of the nation in the winter, but come summer, we further south will have the heat and the thunderstorms. The summer storms in the north, having experienced a few of them, are weaklings compared to what we get in the Republic.

Bring them on!

WolfeIRE

I really hope the local authorities are stocked up with salt/grit because there are going to be some very cold nights ahead of us.

-8C's above us on Tuesday


through to saturday

ECM keeps it going through to Monday week


By the way forkassed, thanks for that excellent washington webcam. http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-location/washington-capitol-en

WolfeIRE

I know this is off topic but i had to share lads. It's brilliant

Back on topic, what a nice sunny day it was there:pac:

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I know this is off topic but i had to share lads. It's brilliant

Back on topic, what a nice sunny day it was there:pac:

Ha ha! brilliant! :pac::pac::pac:

lucernarian

I do love a bit of nostalga, but only if I can see more of the same next week:p

What are key factors in looking for comma low development, especially with the medium term forecast in mind?

Oh and my idea of medium term is 96-120 hours I suppose, there's little point in looking out for specific snowfall events beyond that. This is Ireland after all!

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ha ha! brilliant! :pac::pac::pac:

Indeed.:D

jambofc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I know this is off topic but i had to share lads. It's brilliant

lmao

thecretinhop

great stuff! im getting married in april after 12 years with my other half

two questions if im allowed.... flying out to brusells 19 feb dub airport all good or bad luck, also q 2: what will brusells be like weather wise

cheers in advance

ps keep up good work, very interesting, oh by the way owenC i only commented because when it was -9 in galway a while back i could not find a salter for love nor money, there i was today been covered in salt while +9c was on car temp!! lol u could not make this **** up!

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The summer storms in the north, having experienced a few of them, are weaklings compared to what we get in the Republic.

You should of wrote 'south' instead of the word 'republic' , seeing as I am in Donegal, the most northerly County in Ireland and it is in the Republic.

Thunderstorms , we get thunder but nothing spectactular really, can get very warm though, Car thermometers back in june were reaching 30 degrees but no doubt down by waterford and that would be much sunnier overall. When it gets that hot you dont notice much of a difference in a few degrees anyways.

So are people on here saying a Big freeze is on its way with high confidence?

snaps

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Feb 86'. The supreme of all weather events and probably the most easterly month we had in the 20th century. Will never happen again on the scale, at least in our lifetime I would reckon.

I was living in Essex, UK at the time, I had exams in feb 86. I remember snow drifts as high as the 1st floor of the house. Didnt go to school for 10 days and the army flew in bread/milk/water into the village for a good week or so.

They were the days when schools didnt close and if the heating froze you would be allowed to wear your coat during lessons!

Thats how bad it was!

Pangea

Donegal weather book sales snowballed


BY CRONAN SCANLON

SALES of a Glenfin forecaster's book on weather prediction have snowballed since he rightly predicted a white Christmas.

Back in early December, Glenfin weather expert Michael 'Aimsir' Gallagher, told the Donegal News we would be having a 'whiter than white Christmas'.

And he was right.

Not only did it snow on Christmas Day, but the white stuff lay on the ground for almost three weeks.

Temperatures dropped below minus ten degrees during what turned out to be our coldest December in three decades.

Michael is one of the country's more unusual forecasters who uses clues in nature to predict the weather.

The popular postman launched his new book on weather prediction, 'Traditional Weather Signs', in August.

However, following the white Christmas, Michael was invited to join Ryan Tubridy for a special appearance on the Late Late Show.

Coupled with national and international newspaper and radio interviews, copies of his book started flying off the shelves.

Michael said his book about the old signs and how to read them is selling very well at home and abroad.

"Sales of my book have gone through the roof and I have people looking for them all over Ireland, and indeed, all over the world," Michael said this week.

"A lot of local people are buying the book and sending them to friends and relatives overseas. Its all about the traditional way of reading the weather and people are very interested in the Irish culture and the old ways. People who read the book say the remember their parents or grandparents telling them similar stories".

"When I started weather predictions years ago, I never thought it would go this far and that I would be up on the Late Late Show."

Michael also warned that the cold winter is far from over and that more snow is just around the corner.

"The snow is not over yet. There is still a lot of snow lying on the Bluestack Mountains and that means it is not away yet.

There is another cold bite left, but it will not be as bad as the spell we had at Christmas," he concluded.

Michael's book 'Traditional Weather Signs' costs only €10 and can be purchased at many outlets throughout the county including Eason's, Books Direct in Letterkenny Shopping Centre and the Four Master's Book Shop in Donegal Town.



Published: Thu, Jan 28, 2010

Will he be right again?

Musicman2000

looks like he might be right:)

spideog7

Just a follow up to the forecast I posted yesterday.

Photos thread

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

"The snow is not over yet. There is still a lot of snow lying on the Bluestack Mountains and that means it is not away yet.

There is another cold bite left, but it will not be as bad as the spell we had at Christmas," he concluded.

With the way the snow lies for months on lugnaquilla nearly every year - If I applied that tautology to forecasting shur we'd be shnowed in a lot of the time :rolleyes:
The postman is right regarding some signs of nature but he's just lucky in my opinion.
You can't rule out that he's heard a forecast or two in his travels either from people that have read this that or the other or even somewhere like here :pac:

lucernarian

Deleted User wrote: »

With the way the snow lies for months on lugnaquilla nearly every year - If I applied that tautology to forecasting shur we'd be shnowed in a lot of the time :rolleyes:
The postman is right regarding some signs of nature but he's just lucky in my opinion.
You can't rule out that he's heard a forecast or two in his travels either from people that have read this that or the other or even somewhere like here :pac:

Indeed. It would be some irony if he did pay here a visit or two.

Pangea

Deleted User wrote: »

With the way the snow lies for months on lugnaquilla nearly every year - If I applied that tautology to forecasting shur we'd be shnowed in a lot of the time :rolleyes:
The postman is right regarding some signs of nature but he's just lucky in my opinion.
You can't rule out that he's heard a forecast or two in his travels either from people that have read this that or the other or even somewhere like here :pac:

Just googled "Lugnaquilla" , it is the highest mountain in Wicklow and the only Munro (i.e. hill above 3000ft)
Come on use your noggen, hes on about local hills , not bloody 3000 feet high, the local hills in donegal have snow covered on them the past few weeks and i havnt seen that before, and I dont understand why people give him such a hard time,hes not a prophet or hes not using magic, its what a lot of people were taught and hes just good at it, never mind michael my own parents told me about that when the snow is lying around it is waiting for more, and it was right because we got snow twice in the past week.
As for him googling other sites, thats all nonsense, hes an old man from the gaelteacht with old traditions just because he predicts the weather without fantasy island charts doesnt make him a lunatic.

Also how can you call him lucky ,when every time he comes out to speak about the cold weather , it always happens, I have not seen him suggest a cold period and then it not to materialise , unlike forecasters on met eireann and indeed here on boards.