Big Freeze in early/mid February?

WolfeIRE

I like the look of this for next Tuesday/Wednesday. If only A nice easterly blast of air up against an atlantic system would do nicely.

Redsunset

Although it does look more promising for a SHORT colder spell,im not convinced yet that if it does follow through we'll see anything too significant.

By tomorrow evening it could be all gone Pete Tong,so i think i'll wait till saturday before getting overly excited if needs be.

Still an age to go before it possibly becomes a reality.

Not trying to be a spoil sport here but my head rules the heart for now.

jambofc

im sitting on the fence for this one,wasted to much money on tickets for the rollercoaster allready this winter
(but it is looking better than it was) who said that......

Supercell

00Z GFS ensembles starting to have a definate trend from 9th onwards of back to the cold.
I for one hope this is a day away type thing - I fly outta here on Feb 10th to southern China!
I really dont want one cm of snow at Dublin Airport causing delays and cancellations!

Rebelbrowser

Somebody made a very good point in this thread that the weather of SE England is not the weather of Ireland and thus the enthusiasm on English forums should be ignored. That said, as a layman, the charts they are showing on Netweather forums now seem to show cold for both Britian and Ireland and possibly from as soon as Monday onwards. Obviously things can change but apparently the last three runs of the main models are largely in agreement on the principle of cold easterly weather next week?

As an aside, this Joe Bastardi guy intrigues me. A few people here have commented favourably on his style of writing. To be honest I can't follow what the man is trying to say. I think he is very vague and suspect that's no accident.....

WolfeIRE

Latest charts for Wednesday. The models are again indicating a cold spell from Tuesday onwards. And it looks like hanging around until the weekend at least.

Jambo...since you're short a few quid i bought you a ticket for rollercoaster.

No use Wolfie [even if it wasn't FI] as it sends most of the cold pool East of wales in a SW motion thta will end up in biscay.

-5850's are not cold enough for snow in Ireland except above 600ft.
You need -7's minimum and preferably -8's.

-5's will mean weak convection too and hug it close to the East coast.
Cold rain is not exciting.
As I said last night,don't confuse UK fora excitement with what we need to get excited.

The models or rather the weather will have to do better.

Even the ecm ooz has us in a useless no mans land col at 144.
It's always a week or more away for us in those models.
That will have to improve markedly.

Heres a typical example of the excitement in the English home counties whilst we are in muck.
Great for them.Useless by comparison for us.
Of course it won't happen as it's FI and models are chopping and changing and by 4pm today this will be a different image to the one I describe.
As of now it has all the 7 days time cold energy 600 miles to our east

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Somebody made a very good point in this thread that the weather of SE England is not the weather of Ireland and thus the enthusiasm on English forums should be ignored. That said, as a layman, the charts they are showing on Netweather forums now seem to show cold for both Britian and Ireland and possibly from as soon as Monday onwards. Obviously things can change but apparently the last three runs of the main models are largely in agreement on the principle of cold easterly weather next week?

As an aside, this Joe Bastardi guy intrigues me. A few people here have commented favourably on his style of writing. To be honest I can't follow what the man is trying to say. I think he is very vague and suspect that's no accident.....

yes, he maybe vague to cover himself, and has been pointed out he has been wrong many times in the past, but if what the models are signalling were to verify he'll have been right again this winter because he said from January the 12th onwards the worst of the cold weather was over for England and that the block of cold air would remain over Germany, although it would make brief incursions into the south east of england from time to time before the Atlantic would sweep it away again after a few days. This seems to be what the models are now suggesting for next week. For the real cold to get a grip here one of the main things we need in this setup is for the atlantic to be deep in nao that doesn't seem to be the case.
however, that said if that the huge area of high pressure over Russia had decided to be accommodating by moving a couple of hundred miles westwards late last month, this month we could have had some almighty battles between different airmasses over ireland resulting in decent snowfalls. ah well:(

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

Heres a typical example of the excitement in the English home counties whilst we are in muck.
Great for them.Useless by comparison for us.
Of course it won't happen as it's FI and models are chopping and changing and by 4pm today this will be a different image to the one I describe.
As of now it has all the 7 days time cold energy 600 miles to our east

Again the only muck thing about that post is your comments which are becoming very annoying due to their inaccuracies.

Granted that chart isn't fantastic for Ireland and has much of the shower energy over England.

It has dublin in -11c 850hpa temps, dewpoints extremely low and snow showers peppering the east coast.

Not to mention in the 24 hours before this a decent NE flow


Again its stupid discussing detail at this far out but to come on and start calling whats projected at that point 'muck' for here and persistently mentioning cold rain etc is just plain annoying becuase it is totally inaccurate.

ninebeanrows

So at this point there is a very good idea now that it will turn much colder from the 9th of February with the potential for some severe cold to push westward.

The set up of the high pressure to our north isn't set in stone but all options thereafter seem positive as high pressure wants to build and build over Greenland.

The options range from dry and extremely cold and frosty to very cold and very unsettled from the east.

And then the 10% option of no cold at all, which is the % offered by the ECM and GFS ensembles at this point.

A very interesting time ahead and puts to bed the talk of mild and usettled painted for next week by the Met yesterday! Apart from the 10% chance of course.

Lets hope for a raging easterly 1987 style.

darkman2

We don't know how severe the cold period will be yet but we can be pretty certain it will get colder. Just a question of how cold and for how long. It will be a couple of days yet before we really know.

WolfeIRE

Weathercheck2 wrote: »

Lets hope for a raging easterly 1987 style.

surely you don't mean Drago :eek:


Well said WC. I have been told that the models are going to downgrade continuosly and that we will ultimately end up with the same 'muck'. They are all indicating a cold spell over Ireland starting from early-mid week next week. Just how active precip-wise it will be is another question. Woudl be nice to have the E/NE meet up with an atlantic front, preferably over west clare.:cool:

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

surely you don't mean Drago :eek:


Well said WC. I have been told that the models are going to downgrade continuosly and that we will ultimately end up with the same 'muck'. They are all indicating a cold spell over Ireland starting from early-mid week next week. Just how active precip-wise it will be is another question. Woudl be nice to have the E/NE meet up with an atlantic front, preferably over west clare.:cool:

while not wishing to speak for anyone, i think that's just a defense/coping mechanism, you predict the worst while secretly hoping for the best. that way the disappointment isn't as great if it all goes pear shaped;)

well, it is for me anyway:pac:

Redsunset

@ wolfeIRE

The GEM (Canadian)chart you posted are being dismissed by NOAA this morning.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html


RECOMMENDS LEANING
AWAY FROM THE SLOWER SOLNS OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD SUCH AS THE 00Z
CANADIAN.

Weathercheck2

Weathercheck2 wrote: »

Again the only muck thing about that post is your comments which are becoming very annoying due to their inaccuracies.

In all fairness now wc,this type of set up was showing for this week only a week or two ago-And look what happened..

Granted that chart isn't fantastic for Ireland and has much of the shower energy over England.

It has dublin in -11c 850hpa temps, dewpoints extremely low and snow showers peppering the east coast.

at 120 Dublin according to the gfs is far from -11 850's and by 144,it's barely there.
Pinning hopes on t-144 wc is hopecasting wc and you know it.

Not to mention in the 24 hours before this a decent NE flow

A NE flow thats only starting wc,only starting and therefore not going long enough to be cold enough yet.
Beyond that is FI.

If you find cautionary comments annoying then...what can I say,you shouldn't.

Again its stupid discussing detail at this far out but to come on and start calling whats projected at that point 'muck' for here and persistently mentioning cold rain etc is just plain annoying becuase it is totally inaccurate.

whats 120 and closer is muck.It's certainly not a snowfest.
Theres a good trend 3 days in a row beyond 120 but it's going to disappoint a lot of people if it doesn't improve and make it to 96hrs and below is all I'm saying.
Frankly I'm disappointed that you should take such a view on caution.

WolfeIRE

Thanks for that Red.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME QUESTIONABLY
DEEP WITH THEIR UPR LOWS CROSSING THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7
WED-THUOf course, everything beyond 120hrs is questionable but it will be inetresting to see how things pan outover the weekend.

Further out again for next Friday. Of course, it is subject to change and may be well oevrstated but such a set up would bring a lot of precip to the the north and eastern half of the country at least.

nacho libre

well, whether it does get cold enough for sneachta to fall is still up in the air, i think we can say it will eventually get colder anyway.

certainly the latest oulook on met eireann seems to suggest that:

met.ie
FRIDAY NIGHT : Mainly dry. Cold. Winds easing off. Widespread frost, some fog patches. Temperatures down to - 2 to - 4 C in places. SATURDAY : Continuing mainly dry, with light winds. Bright or sunny spells in many areas, highs 5 to 9 C generally - but overnight fog may be slow to clear. SATURDAY NIGHT : Again, mainly or completely dry, variable cloud cover. Cold, with frost and/or fog in places. SUNDAY, MONDAY : Becoming windy - strengthening southeasterly winds, making it feel chilly at times (though largely preventing frost on Sunday night). Wet weather spreading from the Atlantic to affect much of Munster and Connacht at times, with heavy falls of rain possible in the southwest - but at this stage, looks unlikely to make much further progress eastwards, so other areas should stay largely or completely dry.
Meanwhile on Tuesday, severe cold sets in and widespread heavy snowfall is likely throughout the country as a series of active troughs push down across the country from the North East

the bit in bold may not be true;)

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

while not wishing to speak for anyone, i think that's just a defense/coping mechanism, you predict the worst while secretly hoping for the best. that way the disappointment isn't as great if it all goes pear shaped;)

well, it is for me anyway:pac:

pretty much bang on.
I wouldn't ever rely on a 144 gfs anyway and by golly I'm not going to get hopes up given all the recent flip flops.

For what it's worth,I would word my summary much like dm2 said a few post back.
It does look like it will get cold and colder but just how cold is uncertain untill at least sundays output.
If it's put back another week by then I'm not going to bother commenting any more on it.
And I repeat -5 850 air in Ireland at the head of hopefully though well FI much colder air is coastal rain/sleet at best.
What we want to see is that deeply cold scandi air to head here and it could all too easily slide to the East of Ireland in the absence yet of a decent Iceland high.

ninebeanrows

Deleted User wrote: »

In all fairness now wc,this type of set up was showing for this week only a week or two ago-And look what happened..
at 120 Dublin according to the gfs is far from -11 850's and by 144,it's barely there.
Pinning hopes on t-144 wc is hopecasting wc and you know it.

A NE flow thats only starting wc,only starting and therefore not going long enough to be cold enough yet.
Beyond that is FI.

If you find cautionary comments annoying then...what can I say,you shouldn't.


whats 120 and closer is muck.It's certainly not a snowfest.
Theres a good trend 3 days in a row beyond 120 but it's going to disappoint a lot of people if it doesn't improve and make it to 96hrs and below is all I'm saying.
Frankly I'm disappointed that you should take such a view on caution.

Why are you starting to talk about 120hr charts when the chart you were commenting on that was muck was a 168hr chart??

You are trying change things around to make me look wrong when infact you posted a 168hr chart from the GFS stating it was 'muck'. Then i continued to go on and say it wasn't muck and that there was -11c 850hpa over us, which there is.

So stop trying to muddle things,

Obviously at T120hrs the feed is only beginning with 850hpas around -7c and dewpoints just around 0c or slightly below.

And about me hopecasting etc. I never stated what is projected by the models is going to happen, what i am stating is that if it occurs it will not produce this cold rain that you talk of.

Even at that confidence is now growing around the 96/120hr mark in which key ingredients to our easterly are formed.

nacho libre

yes, if the models were once again to flip at the last minute and put the cold air from the east back by another week then it really is time to forget about sustained cold taking hold. if this is in fact what happens i'll be looking towards the north to bring us a potent arctic airflow with a polar low hopefully forming.

still on a more positive note there does seem to be consensus amongst the models of it getting colder. whereas last week this wasn't the case as the ukmo were steadfast in their view that an easterly would not take hold.

Weathercheck2

Weathercheck2 wrote: »

Why are you starting to talk about 120hr charts when the chart you were commenting on that was muck was a 168hr chart??

mea culpa-for some reason I was multiplying hours wrong in my head there and simultaneously looking at the ecm at 120 [the one wolf posted]and a gfs at 168.

You are trying change things around to make me look wrong when infact you posted a 168hr chart from the GFS stating it was 'muck'. Then i continued to go on and say it wasn't muck and that there was -11c 850hpa over us, which there is.

So stop trying to muddle things,

I'm not "trying" to muddle things.I did muddle things unintentionally actually.
-11 850's are fine if they get here that quickly I have my doubts.

Obviously at T120hrs the feed is only beginning with 850hpas around -7c and dewpoints just around 0c or slightly below.

And about me hopecasting etc. I never stated what is projected by the models is going to happen, what i am stating is that if it occurs it will not produce this cold rain that you talk of.

My cold rain comments were in relation to the ECM chart that wolf posted..
-5 850 air there.

Even at that confidence is now growing around the 96/120hr mark in which key ingredients to our easterly are formed.

That I can agree with.

Redsunset

A sort of overhead sat view of conditions.could be worth keeping on eye on.






http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-H_bw.jpg

WolfeIRE

I always found this wind site to be good. Shows a due easterly in place by Tuesday afternoon.
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Wolf,it will only show model output.
I'm not sure if they have human input into those but I doubt it.

I'm actually going to refrain from further comment here now untill Sunday and let ye at it because I'm not convinced yet and I've seen even in this thread what happens to ye when models flip and flip out of nowhere to something less good and that remains a possibility regardless of the number of postage stamps indicating cold.
Hope it works out.

WolfeIRE

Wise thing to do BB if not for your sanity alone.

By the way, I guess the wind observation program is just the skin of what the models are putting out but it's a nice tool for those who do not understand what the models actually mean.

pauldry

Think bythis time next week wel be colder than we are now as in less than 7c. how conservative an estimate is that? If we put enough wind (excuse the pun) behind this campaign of hopeful predicting we just might just attract snow out of curiousity.:D

Gonzo

I hope we get an easterly out of this rather than an north-easterly, I dont want the Isle Of Man spoiling things once again. If theres a ne wind its game-over for Meath and Louth.

arctictree

GFS 12z rolling out now girls! Will it, wont it.....

Snowaddict

A solid start to this afternoon's NWP Guidance with GME 12Z Operational backtracking significantly when compared with it's 00Z Operational output, indicating a Southeasterly flow developing by T+72. This flow then backs to an Easterly flow by T+108.

A weak trough over Northern Scandinavia assists in the Southwestward advection of a relatively deep cold pool. A strong area of positive height anomolies persist to the variable North & over Iceland, however we don't want to see those eroded too rapidly as there would be a risk in the collapse of the pattern.

A very solid trend on GME/DWD 12Z though today:

T+108



Regarding the commentary today, I would very much mirror the comments of Black Briar. For a decent Easterly flow that we can have conifdence in delivering snowfall to low levels, we ideally need 850mb Temperatures of -7 and lower. Generally -9 to - 10 for powdery snow at Sea Level.

There will be many more changes run on run yet to come, but the general trend is currently clearly in favour of a general cold outbreak, with great uncertainty surrounding potency of the cold etc.

Much will depend upon the orientation of the trough over Northern Scandinavia also, along with the ability to sustain heights to the variable north in the medium term. The positive news is that the atmosphere continues to remain predisposed towards a cold outbreak & the latest UKMO Medium Term Outlook is certainly a wintry one.

SA