Is 2010 the "eye of the storm" ?

mikester2006

Just wondering what people and economists think ? The government seemed to be saying the worst of the recession is over, but I think for many ordinary people 2011 will be a much worse year There is the threat of water charges, property tax, and the carbon tax will be in on home heating by then, plus interest rates will be higher.
So I think this year is like "the eye of the storm" and far from the worst being behind us, I think next year is the year the recession will really impact a lot more people.
Even if the public finances on paper seem to be improving, the reality for many families will be real poverty and a resulting drop in consumer spending and confidence.
Am I being too pessimistic ?

hiorta

No, probably realistic.

Brussels Sprout

I think you could unfortunately be correct as well. We're shaping up for more wage cuts in the public sector, more job losses in the private sector and more emigration from the newly unemployed and qualified graduates. The one silver lining of this continuing in until 2011 though is that it'll be harder for FF to get re-elected in 2012 after the economy finally gets it's anaemic bounce and they claim that they have everything under control again. (nice post rate btw)

Welease

I'm really not sure the worst of this is over sadly..
Yes, the recession may end but the tax take is a fraction of what is was previously, and is a long way from getting back to the levels that this country has grown to rely on.
The economy may grow, but i think there will be more cuts in the future as we struggle to contain the deficit.

ei.sdraob

hopefully not

Sea Sharp

I'm predicting 2011 will be worse than 2010 and 2012 will be rock bottom. Then 2013 will be as bad as 2011. 2014 will have gotten back to where we are now.
:cool:

cleremy jarkson

When you think about it;

2007 was when the cracks in the economy started to show. ie. people in construction started to notice that things were starting to dry up.

2008 was when it became evident that we were facing into a period of recession. People started to cut down on spending significantly during this year, people started to get laid off in significant numbers from all sectors of work. It became evident that we had collectively fcuked things up.

2009 was the year of the cull. January saw 1000 people a day lose their jobs. Unemployment grew from 8% to 12.5%...and this doesnt account for the numbers of people who chose to emigrate or return to education. Two austerity budgets put into place to try to curb the growing gap between government revenues and spending. A huge contraction of the economy takes place and so does deflation for the first time in 80 years. All cuts that were made by the government were easier than the ones that are going to have to be made this year.

2010; more graduates are going to be pumped out of third level and face either the dole, emigration or further study. A budget next winter is basically going to further reduce the incomes of those people still working at a time when the these people are starting to notice the effects of increased interest rates. 4 billion euro will be tough to find for the government without imposing serious hardship on a lot of people.

2011; finding another 3 billion is going to be like taking skin off a skeleton at that stage!! And deflation will be finished. Cross border shopping will increase when the pound succumbs to hyperinflation. only messing

2012-2014; economic stagnation

unit 1

Don't forget the 80's.
That time it lasted erm 10 years.

Dob74

Higher interest rates if the world economy recovers,
No economic growth if exports dont increase to the world economy.
A slow painful fall in crash for the Irish economy. It will be along time before we see the economy turn around in this country.

View

mikester2006 wrote: »

Just wondering what people and economists think ? The government seemed to be saying the worst of the recession is over, but I think for many ordinary people 2011 will be a much worse year There is the threat of water charges, property tax, and the carbon tax will be in on home heating by then, plus interest rates will be higher.
So I think this year is like "the eye of the storm" and far from the worst being behind us, I think next year is the year the recession will really impact a lot more people.
Even if the public finances on paper seem to be improving, the reality for many families will be real poverty and a resulting drop in consumer spending and confidence.
Am I being too pessimistic ?

Yes, you are. Most countries are now out of recession or coming out of it. While there is bound to be a lag factor as everyone "pauses for breath", economic growth should pick up globally. That will result in increased demand and, in order to meet that demand, industries will start hiring again etc. That in turn will result in lower unemployment (albeit with another lag), increased tax revenues for countries (which will reduce the pressure on public finances) etc. Yes, in time interest rates will need to rise as a result but I'd suspect that Central banks will delay doing so for a year (or close to it). I'd say the negative effect of such a rise will be offset by the positive benefits of an economic upturn.

jbizl

mikester2006 wrote: »

Just wondering what people and economists think ? The government seemed to be saying the worst of the recession is over, but I think for many ordinary people 2011 will be a much worse year There is the threat of water charges, property tax, and the carbon tax will be in on home heating by then, plus interest rates will be higher.
So I think this year is like "the eye of the storm" and far from the worst being behind us, I think next year is the year the recession will really impact a lot more people.
Even if the public finances on paper seem to be improving, the reality for many families will be real poverty and a resulting drop in consumer spending and confidence.
Am I being too pessimistic ?

Your question is valid but your post is flawed. your still stuck in hollywood. but some day soon you will wake up and realise that we are just another species on this planet although far far superior to any other, we all abide by the same principles of life and death encompased by the physical laws governing our earth. only then can you begin to answer the question you pose.

are you being too pessimistic???
anything better than total chaos in the coming years is optimistic.

j

P. Breathnach

mikester2006 wrote: »

Just wondering what people and economists think ? ...

So economists are not people?

The people who have opined on the question seem to me to be basing their answers more on a feeling of pessimism than on anything else.

Red_Marauder

jbizl wrote: »

Your question is valid but your post is flawed. your still stuck in hollywood. but some day soon you will wake up and realise that we are just another species on this planet although far far superior to any other, we all abide by the same principles of life and death encompased by the physical laws governing our earth. only then can you begin to answer the question you pose.

Perhaps we should put that down to the time of the night/ morning it is.

are you being too pessimistic???
anything better than total chaos in the coming years is optimistic.

Total chaos, I think most people would agree, is too pessimistic.

Things will be tough, but I don't see them getting a whole lot worse. Interest rates will rise eventually, but very slowly. We could be out of recession six months before they even begin their initial increase.

Our exports are up and are looking healthier. The world market is improving all the time.

I'd have a significant enough worry about further losses in contruction work down the line, but I do think a reasonable amount of that will be hooverd up by emigration.
Your references to water charges and carbon tax are not, I believe, going to be contributory factors to any worsesning of the recession, and won't really have significant negative effects.

I would take issue with the title of the thread.
When you're in the eye of the storm, you're in a state of calm. We are not in the eye of the storm, and things are not calm, nor have they been for at least eighteen months. All economic forecasts project improvements in conditions, which indicates we are moving away from the storm.

2011 may not be a whole lot better than 2010, but I certainly believe that we are slowly but steadily on the road to economic improvement, but it won't be "recovery" in the literal sense; I'm sure none of us want the economic policies or the programmes of the celtic tiger "recovered".

The_Honeybadger

mikester2006 wrote: »

Just wondering what people and economists think ? The government seemed to be saying the worst of the recession is over, but I think for many ordinary people 2011 will be a much worse year There is the threat of water charges, property tax, and the carbon tax will be in on home heating by then, plus interest rates will be higher.
So I think this year is like "the eye of the storm" and far from the worst being behind us, I think next year is the year the recession will really impact a lot more people.
Even if the public finances on paper seem to be improving, the reality for many families will be real poverty and a resulting drop in consumer spending and confidence.
Am I being too pessimistic ?

I'm no economist but here's another possible scenario, this is not a prediction just a possible outcome,

• 2010 things get slowly worse as more people lose their jobs and join dole queue / emigrate. People fall into further negative equity and mortgage defaults become more common towards the end of the year. Slight pick up in demand for our exports evident.
• 2011 unemployment has bottomed out. Falling incomes further increases our competitiveness. Noticeable increase in our exports as all the major economies exit recession one by one. Some jobs created by this. Price falls here and high inflation in the UK due to quantitive easing means the shopping in the north is becoming less and less attractive, many people choose to stay in the Republic creating more jobs and VAT receipts. Live register starts to come down slowly. Gov reforms our bankrupcy laws due to the number of mortgage defaults. Tourism numbers increase due to aggresive marketing abroad and attractive deals offered.
• 2012 New job creation very noticeable for skilled professions and live register retracts slowly. 3-4% economic growth continues for a few years, although we still have considerable unemployment and negative equity.

This is probably as good as we can hope for IMO. For the unemployed that use their time to upskill and put themselves in a position to capitalise on an upturn maybe things won't be so bad. Construction is in big trouble though. You may have noticed that I have ignored the elephant in the room NAMA. I doubt even the most silver tongued spin doctor could put a positive slant on that, however read below for Dermot Desmonds take in the Irish Times, I'm sure many have read it already but it makes alot of sense, I don't see any major flaws in his plan but again I'm no expert.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0916/1224254639563.html?via=rel

Edit forgot to mention Irish people begin to start spending what they have been hoarding again post 2011, and some people are hoarding (I am one of them)

Fat_Fingers

jbizl wrote: »

Your question is valid but your post is flawed. your still stuck in hollywood. but some day soon you will wake up and realise that we are just another species on this planet although far far superior to any other, we all abide by the same principles of life and death encompased by the physical laws governing our earth. only then can you begin to answer the question you pose.

are you being too pessimistic???
anything better than total chaos in the coming years is optimistic.

j

Whoa, what a first post.