Model Outlook Thread: February 2010

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

you enjoy clutching at straws paddy1;)

Not at all, but there is little else to clutch onto these days.

Earlier this week, ECM toyed with the idea of some very wet weather for this coming weekend over Ireland; they dropped this yesterday but it seems to be back on again this evening. The reality remains to be seen however, and it will take many more runs to see if this trend is becoming established. Could well be dropped once again in later runs as the block to the NE seems unwilling to give up its stagnancy just yet.

One thing I have noticed over the last couple of years of model watching is that during the decline of big blocking HPs, there can somethings be a lag effect from it. It just seems that a lot of the easterlies over Ireland (rare at the best of times) we got over the last 2 years or so have often occurred after its main driving block had collapsed. Just a pet theory of mine and nothing to do with anything really.

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

Wouldn't mind that 1050 pushing west.

Judging by Evelyn's face there, even she looks disappointed by the current prognostics. :pac:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not at all, but there is little else to clutch onto these days.

Earlier this week, ECM toyed with the idea of some very wet weather for this coming weekend over Ireland; they dropped this yesterday but it seems to be back on again this evening. The reality remains to be seen however, and it will take many more runs to see if this trend is becoming established. Could well be dropped once again in later runs as the block to the NE seems unwilling to give up its stagnancy just yet.

One thing I have noticed over the last couple of years of model watching is that during the decline of big blocking HPs, there can somethings be a lag effect from it. It just seems that a lot of the easterlies over Ireland (rare at the best of times) we got over the last 2 years or so have often occurred after its main driving block had collapsed. Just a pet theory of mine and nothing to do with anything really.

at the risk of getting more slagging from Pangea:pac:
joe bastardi has said the block won't properly disintegrate till around the first week in march. If that's the case and we continue in this no-mans land of nothing weather, whereby full zonality can't resume and the cold over continental air teases us but stays beyond on our grasp. then i'm officially calling time on this winter. why oh why couldn't the core of the cold have been over England.

Deep Easterly

Tonight's ECM preventing a full Atlantic breakthrough once again at 120hrs with ridge extending westwards from northern Scandinavia:



Given the unreliability of the models post 72hrs lately, large doses of salt required, but an encouraging cross model agreement this evening.

On the 850's, ridge Versus Atlantic approach:



resulting in a tightening gradient over Ireland. Looks breezy for a while if the above charts were to verify.

Deep Easterly

Just to note, the DWD 12z not really buying into this progged ridge build from the northeast:



Has the Atlantic breaking through more readily, although, like the GFS 12z, it does jar this pattern later on with lows stalling to the SW. Very uncertain times ahead.

Redsunset

Depressing forecast there from Evenlyn,saying atlantic lows keeping it very unsettled next week.

How dare she say that with confidence when models are all over the shop at the moment

Pangea

Whats the charts like for the rest of february lads.

Speak Now

Pangea wrote: »

Whats the charts like for the rest of february lads.

Interesting as usual

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Interesting as usual

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

Speak Now

Deep Easterly wrote: »

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

Could be March before you see any storms

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Could be March before you see any storms

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

On the contrary...:(

ECM still insisting on slack low pressure system to bear down over Ireland next week. Result, coastal showers with a continuation of the ever present nothingness.

yes, as we all know by now the ecmwf is usually correct and the gfs tends to overplay its hand and backtracks...
you shouldn't be pinning your hopes on a storm though this month, as the ukmo outlook for this month, which tends to be fairly reliable, backs what joe bastardi has been saying all along that the block won't be dismantled till the first week in march, so it's likely we'll just get more of the same till the end of the month at least.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Just to note, the DWD 12z not really buying into this progged ridge build from the northeast:



Has the Atlantic breaking through more readily, although, like the GFS 12z, it does jar this pattern later on with lows stalling to the SW. Very uncertain times ahead.

Well that one was fairly wrong anyway :pac::pac:

nacho libre

a late parting gift, perhaps;)

Deep Easterly

A long overdue clearing out my "favouates" links today. Found this one in the pile, watch that low swinging down from the north!

http--www.met.fu-berlin.de-terra3d-video-skycover.mpg

(you'll need WMP or similar to view)

That link doesn't work for me DE.
It actually redirects to a boards.ie page saying,this file is not found.

The site mustn't like external links and send referrals back to where they came from?

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

That link doesn't work for me DE.
It actually redirects to a boards.ie page saying,this file is not found.

The site mustn't like external links and send referrals back to where they came from?

Yeah same here BB. Trying to sort it out. Just bear with me. I think you may know the site anyway.

Edit: Here is the link address. Will need to paste it into address bar:

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/terra3d/video/skycover.mpg

Actually, works now as a link. Just click away

Deep Easterly

ECM tonight paints a grim picture. Little sign of the Atlantic breaking through with slack, col type conditions throughout. At 216hrs, nothing interesting weatherwise for Ireland, but what is interesting is how far the 552 line is south. Very unusual:



Could this be the first indicator of more active frontal zones running to the south of Ireland as we head towards the last 3rd of Feb? Who knows, but one to watch maybe..

WolfeIRE

You are right about the 552 Deep. The worst thing about all of this, according to that ECM run, is that we get stuck in 5-8c setup for the foreseeable future. Of course, this can change with every run.

Would love to cut off the Gulf Stream for a week or two, it is just getting annoying now.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight paints a grim picture. Little sign of the Atlantic breaking through with slack, col type conditions throughout. At 216hrs, nothing interesting weatherwise for Ireland, but what is interesting is how far the 552 line is south. Very unusual:



Could this be the first indicator of more active frontal zones running to the south of Ireland as we head towards the last 3rd of Feb? Who knows, but one to watch maybe..

paddy1 stop torturing yourself with if:p i realise Tuam is a fairly depressing place...but wishing your life away is not the solution:p

still you could be right there could eventually be a wind event to end the pattern of this winter. it'd be nice if it resulted in a two day snowstorm over us.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

Tuam is a fairly depressing place...

I can't disagree

But it still isn't in Mayo, so that is something..:p

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I can't disagree

But it still isn't in Mayo, so that is something..:p

denial is an ugly thing;)
at least we got more snow this winter:p
this winter has proven that the snow gods smite Tuam. i was reminded of this all too well when i was **looking down** on a snowless Tuam from a snow-covered croagh patrick.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

this winter has proven that the snow gods smite Tuam..

True. This winter has been pitiful, not just regarding snow, but for any kind of weather really. Frost was cool, but gets quite boring after about 3 weeks. No gales, no heavy rain. I won't even talk about the lack of thunder this winter :mad:

On topic, the ECM this morning, while boring again, looks very strange with slack areas of low pressure all over the gaff; right over the Atlantic, down towards the Iberian Penninsular. Very odd looking, almost like something is ready to explode. :eek:

Deep Easterly

Naught exploding on the latest ECM 00z:



The endless abyss...:rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 00z run this morning hints at a possibility of somewhat more active weather troughs developing to the south of Ireland at 168hrs:



Hopefully at last, there may be signs that the Atlantic is stirring up a little, but too far out to be certain yet. If so, will it drag in more unstable cold air over Ireland, or pump up milder air from the SW? Watch this space...

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF 00z run this morning hints at a possibility of somewhat more active weather troughs developing to the south of Ireland at 168hrs.

Indeed DE, the ECMWF continues this possible activation to the south at 144hrs on this morning's run:



more encouraging signs that the Atlantic may be kicking itself back into life, and so far, kicking itself back into life in an interesting position. Naturally, the exact path of this potential trough is too far out to determine, but tentative signals of an end to this very quite and long lasting spell of nothingness.

nacho libre

talking to yourself now paddy1;) this current weather has affected you far worse than i thought:p

as regards the atlantic springing back into life, i hope any low or front misses most of the country and goes in over the South of England

Deep Easterly

Not a model I put a whole lot of faith in in the long term, so I hope the latest GFS 12z is wrong for the next 10 days:

Next Monday:



I really, REALLY hope it's wrong..:(:(:(

Deep Easterly

ECMWF at 144hrs tonight on the same vibe. Atlantic primary troughs just not activating to any major extent at all:



are we to suffer being locked into this dank, hollow void for the foreseeable? Will it ever end? I do enjoy an occasional calm, quite spell but this has lasted all winter, not just a week here and there. It is unnatural.

darkman2

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECMWF at 144hrs tonight on the same vibe. Atlantic primary troughs just not activating to any major extent at all:



are we to suffer being locked into this dank, hollow void for the foreseeable? Will it ever end? I do enjoy an occasional calm, quite spell but this has lasted all winter, not just a week here and there. It is unnatural.

That's a major snow event shaping up right there. We need a situation where fronts are coming up from the South against the cold air. It is marginal as to where the line is beteen the mild air and the warm air in thos types of situations but if your on the "right" side heavy frontal snow is the result and most of Ireland is on the "right" there.