Model Outlook Thread: February 2010

Gonzo

the weather may be boring over past 6 weeks with nothing to look forward to over the next week at least but I'd still prefer this weather over days of constant rain and bands of rain from the atlantic, that just drives me mad.

nacho libre

Could paddy1 finally get his wish;)

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

the weather may be boring over past 6 weeks with nothing to look forward to over the next week at least but I'd still prefer this weather over days of constant rain and bands of rain from the atlantic, that just drives me mad.

My sentiments exactly!

Derek

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Could paddy1 finally get his wish;)

what is his wish?

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

Could paddy1 finally get his wish;)

what is his wish?

he wants to see a more mobile atlantic pattern develop. in other winter years he'd be likely pleading for a break from the atlantic systems;)

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

he wants to see a more mobile atlantic pattern develop. in other winter years he'd be likely pleading for a break from the atlantic systems;)

Only if they are not delivering

Pangea

and could produce occasional falls of snow almost anywhere (with the northwest most at risk).

Oh yeah ,looks like the snow gods might be leaving me a fond farewell for the season.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

and could produce occasional falls of snow almost anywhere (with the northwest most at risk).

Oh yeah ,looks like the snow gods might be leaving me a fond farewell for the season.

yeah, it would be a real kick in the teeth if you didn't see snow before the much milder weather kicks in around the middle of next week. actually no it wouldn't. as long as i get some snow that's all that really matters:pac:

but seriously it looks like you'll definitely get some snow
before the winter is out. it should stick too by night!

Deep Easterly

ECMWF this evening deepens low just SW of Ireland at 120hrs:



Signals that this current stagnation is coming to an end?

darkman2

Don't know what you mean by stagnation but it is going to become colder and the risk of a major snow event is coming closer as we are always on the increasingly cold side of the Polar Fronts.

Musicman2000

according to MT its going to warm up next week

Deep Easterly

Musicman2000 wrote: »

according to MT its going to warm up next week

Hard one to call either way to be honest. These little systems are springing up on the models to be blown away again only to be reinvigorated again on the next run.

Anyways. here's how that system looks on the 850's chart:



A wraparound occlusion is possible, although uppers not really that impressive.

darkman2

Musicman2000 wrote: »

according to MT its going to warm up next week

Everyone differs here on the interpretation of what the models show. IMO it won't be getting milder for the forseeable future. MT has a different opinion and it may be correct, who knows, but it's not my interpretation of what the charts show.

darkman2

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hard one to call either way to be honest. These little systems are springing up on the models to be blown away again only to be reinvigorated again on the next run.

Anyways. here's how that system looks on the 850's chart:



A wraparound occlusion is possible, although uppers not really that impressive.

This one is not so hard to call;)

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

This one is not so hard to call;)

It sort of is, as this feature could well move to the north or further south, if it develops at all, in the next few runs. Hoping it won't, but nothing can be deemed certain at this early stage. Worth watching though.

nacho libre

Musicman2000 wrote: »

according to MT its going to warm up next week

well i don't wish to disrespect him but he can't be sure. also, if you look back on his winter forecast he predicted Feburary, bar the first week, would be mild throughout with a cold finish. his prediction for next week is obviously predicated on the fact that if there is low after low near us then eventually the atlantic will be reinviorgrated and eventually sweep the cold air away. he could well be right. we'll see

WolfeIRE

on a brighter note, willie o'dea has resigned.

The forecast for him is wintry

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It sort of is, as this feature could well move to the north or further south, if it develops at all, in the next few runs. Hoping it won't, but nothing can be deemed certain at this early stage. Worth watching though.

And sure enough, that intersting feature shown on yesterday's ECM run is dropped once again, with just the usual slack low pressure area over Ireland instead. I'd post a chart but we've seen it all before.

Deep Easterly

ECMWF tonight keeps it dank and slack in the medium term tonight. Any interesting that might develop over the next 3 days or so is soon replaced by the same aul hollow void we have become accustomed to over the last 3 months:




:rolleyes:

nacho libre

ah how dare you paddy1:D

with the models showing lows tracking south between Mon and Thu! Just to see such outputs is impressive enough. To see even one realised for parts of ireland would be a bonus. it currently looks like tomorrow is our best shot at fairly widespread snowfall. So i just don't understand the negativity- but then again i don't have to live in Tuam. so i should try to be more empathetic:p

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i don't have to live in Tuam. so i should try to be more empathetic:p

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBAA2nX42H0

Pangea

Very early warning out
Northern Ireland:
Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.

Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

Min

The potential for over a half foot of snow....yuck.

Pangea

My My what a cold winter, I remember in late december on the news some people were saying the cold period could last to march, they went far wrong!

Speak Now

Pangea wrote: »

My My what a cold winter, I remember in late december on the news some people were saying the cold period could last to march, they went far wrong!

Weren't that far wrong in fairness

Gonzo

I dont think temperatures have exceeded 7 or 8C in the Meath region in past 2 months. I remember most winters from 2002 to 2007 regularly saw us with 12C temps throughout most of December-March.

Su Campu

I've never seen such a zonal setup globally in my lifetime, with upper contours virtually following the lines of latitude around the globe and a distinct lack of Rossby waves! With the sub-tropical and polar jets pretty much superimposed on one another, it's an unusual looking barotropic setup further north.




Only around midweek do we see the system start to kick back into action as the polar jet over Siberia shoves the current low southeastwards over Japan, pushing a strong jet towards the US west coast. This causes lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies by next weekend, setting up a semi-stationary wave, which should kick energy into the flow downstream. This might normally serve to knock us out of this retrogressive pattern and kick the Atlantic back into life, but with no signs of a let up to the current statospheric warming, who knows what will happen as we go into March.

pistolpetes11

With my very limited knowledge I might be looking at this completely wrong but there seems to be a massive pool of cold air pushing east from Greenland and it seems to push some very cold air our direction.

Maybe -8 to -10 's 850hPas are plausible by the time it reaches us here after the Atlantic mixing has taken place but it will more than like be somewhere in the region of -4 too -6's




I know the chart is completely in FI before anyone throws that in I just wondered am I reading this correctly .

Models now thinking Easterly ?

Is it too late? certainly not

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=64637057&postcount=29

Speak Now

Deleted User wrote: »

Models now thinking Easterly ?

Is it too late? certainly not

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=64637057&postcount=29

Models are so oppostite to normal, it's the opposite to the 10 years really.
Any mild weather seems to be forever out in FI where we used to pine cold spells in the past. - 5 uppers are almost a constant at this stage.
Not freezing but far from mild.