2010 Monthly Forecast Contest -- scores

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2010 9:13pm #1

Just a few notes copied over from the January thread, if you read them there, you can safely go on to post #2.

The 2010 contest will be based on your ten best scores for the year. You can enter all twelve of course, and there will in fact be two awards, the main award being the Boards.ie Forecast Challenge for the best score (10 of ??) while for the more persistent and regular entrants, the award will be the M.T. Cranium Award of Merit (somewhat of a contradiction in terms) for the highest total score, and if it only takes you eleven to do it, there's even more merit in that.

Now, partly to even out the monthly scores, and partly to get any scores at all after the January reality unfolded, I devised a system of "mercy rules" or scoring guarantees so that if the guesses unfolded on a wider spectrum than usual, the scoring would still reflect relative accuracy, and in this way, one month's scores should be quite comparable to another month's, which should even out the "best ten out of twelve" situation further.

Here's how that will work and I am sure I will have opportunities to practice with this later today when I score January.

a note here on scoring when few people are close to the actual value in any of the parameters. In 2009 we only had perhaps two or three cases where the normal marking system (one point off per 0.1 C error) led to anomalously low scoring in general, requiring a mercy rule. But I want to make even the mercy rules objective, so I have decided that the following rules will apply.

First, to mean monthly temp, which is worth 25 points this year. The scores for this must exceed 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for the first ten finishers. If at any stage of this progression the actual scores fell below that standard then for those contestants in rank order the scores would be increased to this progression.

For the two monthly extremes that are worth 20, the same logic applies and the standard will be 15, 12, 10 etc.

For the rainfall in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 3% error. This component is worth 15 points, and the scores must equal or exceed 12, 10, 8, 7 etc.

For the sunshine in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 5% error. This component is worth 10 points, and scores must equal or exceed 10, 9, 8, etc, except that the 10 can be reduced to 9 if the error is 10% or greater, which will then reduce the standard by one thereafter.

The bonus question will always be scored in rank order regardless of errors.

Also please note, there is a penalty for late entry. You're safe to enter up to the end of the first of the month, or other date as announced (due to holiday or other interruptions) and a one-day late entry period will follow (usually the 2nd) ... this carries a penalty of 10% applied to scores over sixty. The penalty will not take you below 60 if you're just over. This is mainly to prevent people from gaining an advantage on the monthly extremes which could be already "in the tank" by the 2nd, as I thinik was the case last June for the maximum.

With this to guide me, then, I shall proceed to score January and report in post #2 how that went.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2010 10:00pm

These were the forecasts for January:

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________

Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost .......... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser .............. 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75

Con Sensus ......... 3.6 ..... 11.2 ..... -11.0 .... 94 .... 111 ..... 72

JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

ACTUAL VALUES .... 1.8 ..... 12.1 ..... -12.4 ..... 70 ...... 182 ..... 48

Here are the scores, with people rearranged in order of scoring, consensus gets the appropriate scores but does not "interfere" with your score as his/her rank order is ignored for scoring other contestants. If you beat consensus you have a good forecast, not to say that anything lower is necessarily bad, or in this case, that consensus was awfully good either.

Refer to the first post on mercy rules for evened-out scoring, and any scores with asterisks reflect a higher score awarded than raw scoring would provide. Sometimes this does not apply to each contestant in the category.

Joe Public ............ 24 ..... 11 ..... 16 ..... 08 ..... 08* ..... 10 ...... 77
M.T. Cranium ........ 15 ..... 04 ..... 19 ..... 12 ..... 09* ..... 08 ...... 67
DOCARCH ............. 16 ..... 19 ..... 14 ..... 12 ..... 01* ..... 00 ...... 62
Kindred Spirit ........ 08 ..... 19 ..... 06 ..... 07 ...... 00 ..... 07 ...... 47
Strasser .............. 05 ..... 16 ..... 09 ..... 10 ..... 04* ...... 03 ...... 47
Danno ................. 14 ..... 20 ..... 07 ..... 04 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 45
JD ...................... 08 ..... 08 ..... 17 ..... 07 ...... 00 ..... 05 ...... 45
Su Campu ............ 11 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01* ..... 02 ...... 38
Nacho Libre .......... 07 ..... 18 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 01* ..... 00 ...... 37

Con Sensus .......... 07 ..... 11 ..... 06 .... 07 .... 01* ..... 03 ...... 35

Nilhg ................... 06 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 13 ..... 05* ..... 00 ...... 33
Redsunset ............ 06 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 07* ..... 05 ...... 32
200motels ........... 09 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 03* ..... 00 ...... 31
WolfeIRE ............. 10 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 12 ..... 02* ..... 06 ...... 30
Fionagus .............. 01 ..... 02 ..... 13 ..... 12 ..... 01* ...... 00 ...... 29
Deep Easterly ........ 00 ..... 12 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 06* ..... 00 ...... 23
Cherryghost .......... 04 ..... 10 ..... 00 ...... 06 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 20
Hellboy99 ............. 07 ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 02* ..... 01 ...... 19
Dasa29 ............... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00 ...... 09 ...... 09

Well then, I was actually surprised that the monthly mean temp did not require the mercy rule, the scores dropped off about at the pace of the minimum there. It was needed for sunshine hours, which would have yielded only two scores of about 4/10 otherwise.

Con Sensus did not do exceptionally well in January, I expect these scores to average about 45-50 based on last year. Congrats to Joe Public for an outstanding forecast given the circumstances, Docarch and myself tried to keep up with him; don't be discouraged if you started slow, because I know at least one of the leading trio will be fairly easy to catch.

Any questions or comments, scores can always be corrected if I have slipped up somewhere. Check my addition for your score, you never know.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2010 9:07pm

Scores for February ...

Actual values ...... 2.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -6.6 ..... 68 ...... 137 ..... 8.2

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 14 ...... 13 ..... 04 ..... 09 .... 07 .... 10......57
Danno ............... 14 ..... 10 ..... 09 ...... 09 .... 08 .... 01......51
mysillyusername .. 05 ..... 20 ..... 00 ...... 09 .... 02 .... 04......40
Joe Public .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 08 ...... 09 .... 09 .... 00......39

Con Sensus ........ 07 ..... 01 ..... 13 ..... 02 .... 06 ..... 10......39

hellboy99 ........... 11 ..... 03 .... 04 ...... 00 ..... 10 .... 10......38
cherryghost ........ 15 ..... 03 .... 01 ...... 09 ..... 07 ..... 02.....37
redsunset ........... 21 ..... 00 .... 00 ...... 13 ..... 03 .... 00.....37
jd ..................... 08 ..... 00 .... 15 ...... 03 ..... 04 .... 07......37
Su Campu .......... 07 ..... 06 .... 00 ...... 09 ..... 10 .... 03......35
Strasser ............ 07 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 02......34
TheInquisitor ...... 11 ..... 07 .... 00 ...... 09 ..... 07 .... 00......34
dasa29 .............. 06 ..... 08 .... 09 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00......31
DOCARCH ........... 08 .... 00 ..... 10 ...... 06 ..... 04 .... 00......28
Kindred Spirit ...... 11 ..... 08 .... 04 ...... 00 ..... 04 .... 01......28
200motels .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 04 ..... 10......27
Rebelbrowser ...... 03 ..... 00 .... 19 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......23
Fionagus ............ 03 ..... 00 .... 05 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 07......21
nacho libre ......... 00 ..... 04 .... 10 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......15
Deep Easterly ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 13 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......14
Nilhg ................. 04 ..... 00 .... 01 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 05......13
John mac ........... 02 ..... 00 .... 03 ..... 01 ..... 04 ..... 00......10
MT Cranium ........ 00 ..... 00 .... 06 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00......09
SeaFields ........... 04 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 01 ..... 03 ..... 00......08

Congrats to Jerry Seinfeld, Danno, Mysillyusername and Joe Public for managing to beat Con Sensus. Scores were generally low this month, it seems that almost everyone lost to consensus in some way, which is unusual. It was basically a similar month to January in statistical terms although somewhat less extreme. I checked the "minimum scoring rule" in each category and the scores all qualified -- max for the month and rainfall barely, so we are stuck with these generally low scores for the month.

As we are very early in the annual cycle, I will just list the average scores for both Jan and Feb, if you don't appear here it's because you entered only one contest so far, but later in the year if you keep entering, you'll start to appear when you have participated in all but two to date:

Joe Public.... 58
Danno......... 48
DOCARCH..... 45
JD.............. 41
Strasser...... 40.5
M.T. Cranium 38
Kindred Spirit 37.5

Con Sensus.. 37

Su Campu.... 36.5
Redsunset.... 34.5
200motels..... 29
Cherryghost.. 28.5
Hellboy99..... 28.5
Nacho Libre... 26
Fionagus....... 25
Nilhg............ 23
Dasa29......... 20
Deep Easterly 18.5

Deep Easterly · 01-03-2010 9:39pm

I am bottom of the pile.

Great stuff! :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2010 1:00am

Yeah but you're top of the pile in terms of contributions, general knowledge, and enthusiasm. So don't worry about it.

Just keep my seat warm, that's all I ask. (on the way downnnnnn ...)

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2010 10:10pm

Scores for March following the actual values observed.

Forecaster ........Mean.....Max......Min.....Rain%....Sun%....Dub17th

Actual values ....5.5.....14.7....-7.7.....102......147......14.3
......................................................................................TOTALS
redsunset ........ 18 ..... 13 ... 18 ...... 07 ...... 10 ...... 00.......66
nilhg ............... 22 ..... 18 .... 07* .....09 ..... 01 ..... 02........59
*Rebelbrowser .. 18 ..... 15 .... 15 ..... 08 ..... 02 ....... 00.......58
thetonynator .... 22 ..... 18 .... 03 ..... 06 ..... 05 ...... 00........54
kindredspirit ...... 22 ..... 19 ... 00 ..... 08 ..... 04 ...... 01........54

Con Sensus ..... 22 ..... 20 .... 01* ..... 08 ..... 02 ..... 00........53

talkabout ......... 22 ..... 14 .... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 ...... 07........51
DOCARCH ......... 21 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 08 ..... 02 ...... 08.........50
Jerry Seinfeld ....19 ..... 13 ..... 05* .....01 ..... 09 ..... 00........47
M.T. Cranium .... 22 ..... 07 .... 05* .... 06 ..... 05 ..... 00........45
200motels ........ 21 ..... 12 .... 01* .....07 ..... 00 ..... 03........44
nacho libre ....... 23 ..... 09 .... 01* .... 04 ..... 07 ...... 00.......44
Joe Public ........ 09 ..... 12 .... 06* .... 06 ...... 08 ...... 00.......41
dasa29 ............ 23 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 10........41
hellboy99 ......... 24 ..... 08 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 00........40
TheInquisitor .... 20 ..... 00 .... 11 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 00........38
jdburkedjburke .. 23 ..... 03 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 03 ....... 00.......37
Strasser .......... 20 ..... 02 .... 05* .... 08 ..... 02 ...... 00.......37
Danno ............. 20 ..... 01 ..... 08* .....00 ..... 08 ..... 00.......37
jd ................... 20 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00 ...... 04.......37
Su Campu ........ 20 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 07.......35
Popoutman ....... 06 ..... 13 ..... 05* ....07 ..... 03 ...... 01.......35
Fionagus .......... 21 ..... 11 .... 00 ..... 02 ..... 00 ...... 00........34
John mac ......... 11 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 09.......28
cherryghost ..... 21 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 01 ...... 00 ..... 00.......28
Deep Easterly ... 22 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00........22
SeaFields ......... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 01 ...... 05.......11

The monthly minimum scores needed slight adjustments to meet the requirement of progression of scores. Oddly, the first five scores were fine then the next five had to be adjusted up; these scores are marked by asterisks. Sunshine was barely on the line for scoring by progression, generally the estimates were too low but every position qualified by progression. The one late entrant was not penalized due to total score being under 60.

Congratulations to Redsunset, Nilhg and Rebelbrowser for leading the way. Kindred Spirit and Thetonynator also beat Con Sensus who scored 53 this month. The pack following that score are fairly bunched up.

I will post some cumulative scores next.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2010 10:33pm

The annual contest will take your ten best scores, so here's where things stand after March, including all who have entered at least two out of three:

Joe Public.... (157/3) ... 52.3
Jerry Seinfeld (104/2) ... 52.0
DOCARCH..... (140/3) ... 46.7
Redsunset.... (135/3) ... 45.0
Danno......... (133/3) ... 44.3
Kindred Spirit (129/3) ... 43.0

Con Sensus.. (127/3) ... 42.3

Rebelbrowser . (81/2) ... 40.5
M.T. Cranium (121/3) ... 40.3
JD.............. (119/3) ... 39.7
Strasser...... (118/3) ... 39.3
Nilhg........... (115/3) ... 38.3
Su Campu.... (108/3) ... 36.0
The Inquisitor (72/2) .... 36.0
200motels.....(102/3) ... 34.0
Hellboy99..... (97/3) .... 32.3
Nacho Libre... (96/3) ... 32.0
Cherryghost.. (85/3) .... 28.3
Fionagus....... (84/3) ... 28.0
Dasa29......... (81/3) ... 27.0
Deep Easterly (59/3) .... 19.7
Johnmac ..... (38/2) ..... 19.0
Seafields .... (19/2) ...... 09.5

Six forecasters are staying ahead of Con Sensus, and about ten are close behind. Congrats to Joe Public and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way so far.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2010 6:10pm

Scores for April, including the actual values:

Forecaster ...... Mean .... Max .... Min ...Rain% . Sun% ... 4th

Actuals ........... 8.9 ..... 19.6 .... -3.8 .... 096 .... 132 .... 8.8

Joe Public ........ 15 ....... 17 ...... 19 ...... 14 ...... 09........ 09 .... 83
Jerry Seinfeld ... 14 ....... 17 ...... 15 ...... 13 ...... 08........ 07 .... 74
thetonynator .... 25 ...... 13 ...... 07 ...... 07 ...... 05........ 08 .... 65
DOCARCH ........ 15 ....... 16 ...... 05 ...... 15 ...... 06 ....... 07 .... 64
Strasser .......... 18 ....... 08 ..... 16 ...... 11 .......03........ 07 .... 63
cherryghost ..... 22........ 16 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 06 ....... 04 .... 59
kindredspirit ..... 21 ....... 17 ...... 02 ...... 01 ..... 06........ 10 .... 57
Su Campu ....... 17 ....... 04 ...... 13 ...... 10 ...... 03........ 07 .... 54
snow ghost ..... 14 ....... 19 ...... 13 ...... 00 ...... 03 ....... 04 .... 53

Con Sensus ..... 17 ...... 15 ...... 10 ...... 00 ...... 04......... 07 ..... 53

Dasa29 ........... 19 ...... 00 ...... 18 ...... 09 ..... 05 ....... 00 ..... 51
nilhg .............. 17 ...... 15 ...... 10 ...... 00 ...... 01........ 07 .... 50
nacho libre ..... 15 ....... 11 ...... 07 ..... 02 ...... 07........ 07 .... 49
Hellboy99 ....... 16 ....... 09 ..... 12 ...... 00 ...... 06....... 04 ..... 47
Rebelbrowser .. 18 ....... 11 ...... 01 ...... 03 ..... 04 ....... 09 .... 46
dbyrne ........... 24 ...... 00 ...... 14 ...... 00 ..... 01........ 07 .... 46
SeaFields ....... 25 ...... 12 ....... 00 ...... 01 ..... 02........ 06 .... 46
jd ................. 21 ...... 12 ....... 01 ...... 00 ...... 05....... 07 .... 46
redsunset ...... 16 ....... 14 ...... 00 ...... 06 ...... 06....... 03 .... 45
waterways ..... 23 ....... 00 ...... 05 ..... 01 ...... 06 ....... 09 .... 44
M.T. Cranium .. 10 ...... 12 ...... 15 ...... 05 ...... 01........ 01 .... 44
patneve2 ....... 17 ...... 04 ...... 17 ...... 04 ...... 00........ 08 .... 42
John mac ....... 16 ...... 10 ...... 06 ...... 04 ...... 03........ 01 .... 40
Danno ........... 10 ...... 00 ...... 15 ...... 07 ...... 02........ 05 .... 39
Talkabout ...... 18 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 15 ...... 06 ....... 00..... 39
Fionagus ........ 17 ..... 11 ....... 01 ...... 00 ..... 06........ 03 ..... 38
200motels ...... 17 ...... 02 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 02........ 06 ..... 38
DeepEasterly... 19 ...... 07 ...... 03 ...... 00 ...... 04........ 04 .... 37
pauldry ......... 12 ...... 05 ...... 00 ...... 11 .......03........ 06 ..... 37
Popoutman .... 20 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 07 .......02........ 01 ..... 30

Congrats then to Joe Public and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way in a month where almost everyone seemed to do fairly well -- seems that the unusual distribution of mean and extreme temps scattered the scores around, and it wasn't necessary to adjust any scores to keep the minimum scoring in play.

I will update the cumulative some time later -- in doing this month, I noticed that I was about to use 10 instead of 15 as the max for rainfall, so I looked back and apparently this happened in March (not the other two months) so before I can do the cumulatives, I will need to adjust March, basically, everyone who scored for rainfall in March will get five extra points and anyone who scored zero might be getting somewhere from 0-5 extra. This may affect the previously stated cumulatives slightly too, but probably not by much. So this error will be corrected before the new annual positions are announced.

Okay, just looking back, I can't edit the March table, or the cumulative to end of March. But make a note, everyone gets five extra points including Danno who should have scored five rather than zero, except that DE remains at his March score as he did not score on rainfall despite the error in scoring. So this will explain why all cumulative totals are five higher now than they should be if you just add this month's total to the old cumulative total.

Anyway, this makes it simple for me to proceed to that stage, so look for some cumulative scores in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2010 6:57pm

The annual contest will take your ten best scores, so here's where things stand after April, including all who have entered at least three out of four (see my note on March scoring above, most of you are getting five more points from March in case you're checking the arithmetic):

Joe Public.... (245/4) ... 61.3
Jerry Seinfeld (183/3) ... 61.0
DOCARCH..... (209/4) ... 52.3
Kindred Spirit (191/4) ... 47.8
Strasser...... (186/4) ... 46.5
Redsunset.... (185/4) ... 46.3

Con Sensus.. (185/4) ... 46.3

Danno......... (177/4) ... 44.3
Rebelbrowser . (132/3) .. 44.0
M.T. Cranium (170/4) ... 42.5
JD.............. (170/4) ... 42.5
Nilhg........... (170/4) ... 42.5
Su Campu.... (167/4) ... 41.8
Nacho Libre... (150/4) ... 37.5
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Hellboy99..... (147/4) ... 36.8
200motels.....(145/4) ... 36.3
Dasa29......... (137/4) .. 34.3
Fionagus....... (127/4) .. 31.8
Johnmac ..... (83/3) ..... 27.7
Deep Easterly (96/4) .... 24.0
Seafields .... (70/3) ...... 23.3

Also with two forecasts ...

The Tonynator (124/2) ... 62.0
Talkabout ...... (95/2) .... 47.5
The Inquisitor (77/2) .... 38.5
Popoutman .... (75/2) .... 37.5

Please let me know if I have overlooked anyone especially in the 2 forecast group. The twos are eligible for the annual contest as long as they enter all remaining months. The threes have one grace month and the fours have two grace months as it's your best ten out of twelve that count there. But for the ultimate bragging rights you need to enter all twelve.

Our leaders, Joe Public, Jerry Seinfeld, DOCARCH and provisionally The Tonynator, have all gained ground this month with higher scores than most in April. So the rest of us are going to have to pull our socks up now to stay in the hunt.

DOCARCH · 04-05-2010 7:02pm

Thanks for all the hard work MT (especially given I'm near the top of the table).

thetonynator · 04-05-2010 7:15pm

So,provisionally, I'm coming first . . .:D

I have a strange feeling that it has more to do with luck in my case . . .:(

Thanks for all the effort M.T. . . .

200motels · 04-05-2010 11:13pm

Great work MT, much appreciated.

nacho libre · 04-05-2010 11:42pm

I feel your work would be much better MT if you had me near the top;) despite all my pms you're not for bribing:(

jd · 05-05-2010 7:08pm

Just a suggestion- could this be stickied,along with the current month's forecasts!?

thetonynator · 05-05-2010 8:54pm

jd wrote: »

Just a suggestion- could this be stickied,along with the current month's forecasts!?

+1

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2010 9:48pm

Done, thanks moderators.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2010 3:21pm

Scoring for May ... For the monthly max, some scores were adjusted upward (marked by *) to conform with the "minimum scoring rule" explained back in January. There were a lot of ties for the max as people seem to be choosing values that end in .0 or .5, which explains the uneven downward progression of scores there. I was expecting the rainfall scores to need adjustment but the progression fell right on the minimum scoring rule standard.

Forecaster .... Mean .... Max .... Min .... Rain% .... Sun% .... Max 22nd
________________________________________________________

Actual values ...10.8.....25.6.....-2.0......069........115......24.0

nilhg ................ 23 ..... 06*.... 19 ..... 13 ..... 10 .... 05 .... 76
Su Campu ......... 22 .... 19 ...... 15 ..... 08 ..... 08 .... 00 .... 72
hellboy99 .......... 24 .... 06*..... 16 ..... 04 ..... 08 .... 08 .... 66
mickger844posts. 21 .... 01*..... 14 ..... 11 ..... 10 .... 06 .... 63
redsunset ......... 13 .... 16 ...... 15 ..... 08 ..... 00 .... 10 .... 62
DOCARCH ......... 22 .... 00 ...... 19 ..... 08 ..... 09 .... 02 .... 60
John mac ......... 23 .... 00 ...... 17 ..... 02 ..... 07 .... 09 .... 58
Deep Easterly ... 22 .... 09*...... 09 ..... 05 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 54
M.T. Cranium .... 24 .... 00 ...... 20 ..... 00 ...... 08 .... 01 .... 53
dasa29 ............ 22 .... 08*..... 00 ..... 03 ...... 08 .... 07 .... 48
SeaFields ......... 21 .... 02* .... 10...... 06 ...... 09 .... 00 .... 48
Fionagus .......... 22 .... 02* .... 14 ..... 01 ...... 09 .... 00 .... 48
Danno ............. 23 .... 06*..... 12 ..... 00 ...... 06 .... 00 .... 47

Con Sensus ...... 22 .... 01*..... 11 ..... 03 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 46

kindredspirit ..... 19 .... 02* .... 10 ...... 00 ..... 07 .... 04 .... 42
pauldry ........... 24 .... 01*..... 10 ...... 01 ..... 06 .... 00 .... 42
thetonynator ... 25 .... 00....... 07 ...... 01 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 42
talkabout......... 16 .... 01*..... 12....... 03 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 41
nacho libre ...... 24 .... 10*..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 06 .... 00 .... 40
Strasser ......... 22 .... 00....... 05 ...... 01 ..... 09 .... 01 .... 38
jd .................. 24 .... 02* .... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 .... 04 .... 38
200motels ....... 19 .... 06*..... 00....... 00 .... 08 ..... 00 .... 33
Joe Public ....... 16 .... 00 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 03 .... 00 .... 30
Jerry Seinfeld ...15 .... 00....... 00 ...... 00 ..... 07 .... 00 .... 22

Fairly good scoring this month, and congrats to Nilhg, Su Campu and Hellboy99 for leading the way. A report on the cumulative scoring will follow shortly.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2010 4:06pm

After May here is the updated annual scoring table ... I have dropped a few entrants who were no-shows in April and May, can always pick up again later. I also included Pauldry who has only two entries but is near the middle of the table anyway.

In general terms, the table has tightened up considerably; May was favourable to the lower half of the table, it seems.

thetonynator (166/3) ... 55.3
Joe Public.... (275/5) ... 55.0
DOCARCH..... (269/5) ... 53.8
Jerry Seinfeld (205/4) ... 51.3
Redsunset.... (247/5) ... 49.4
Nilhg........... (246/5) ... 49.2
Su Campu.... (239/5) ... 47.8
Kindred Spirit (233/5) ... 46.6

Con Sensus.. (231/5) ... 46.2

Talkabout ... (136/3) ... 45.3
Strasser...... (224/5) ... 44.8
Danno......... (224/5) ... 44.8
M.T. Cranium (223/5) ... 44.6
Rebelbrowser (132/3) .. 44.0
Hellboy99..... (213/5) ... 42.6
JD.............. (208/5) ... 41.6
Pauldry ....... (79/2) .... 39.5
Nacho Libre... (190/5) .. 38.0
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Dasa29......... (185/5) .. 37.0
200motels.....(178/5) ... 35.6
Fionagus....... (175/5) .. 35.0
Johnmac ..... (141/4) ... 35.3
Deep Easterly (150/5) ... 30.0
Seafields .... (118/4) .... 29.5

Really, it's quite a close race now, good luck in June (enter now if you haven't already).

200motels · 02-06-2010 3:45pm

Great work MT.

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2010 8:53pm

June scoring:

Forecaster ...... Mean ... Max .. Min .. Rain% .. Sun% . Cork 7th
___________________________________________________________

Actual values ... 15.1 ... 24.9 .. 2.6 ... 065 .. 123 .16.0,13.9 ... Totals

SeaFields .......... 25 ..... 05*.. 06 ..... 12 ..... 10 ..... 04 ...... 62
Joe Public ......... 13 ..... 10 ... 17 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 08 ...... 62
Danno .............. 10 ..... 12 ... 12 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 10 ...... 59
mickger844posts. 20 ..... 00 ... 16 ..... 13 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 58
talkabout .......... 25 ..... 00 ... 17 ..... 04 ..... 09 ..... 01 ...... 56
thetonynator ..... 15 ..... 17 ... 12 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 02 ...... 53
200motels ......... 15 ..... 00 ... 16 ..... 12 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 52
Nacho libre ........ 13 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 09 ..... 10 ..... 05 ...... 52
M.T. Cranium ..... 16 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 08 ...... 51
John mac .......... 25 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 01 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 50
Su Campu ......... 08 ..... 20 ... 08 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 03 ...... 50
Leeside ............. 23 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 02 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 49
kindredspirit ...... 11 ..... 04*... 11 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 49

Con Sensus ....... 14 ..... 01*.. 17 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 03 ...... 49

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 07 ..... 19 ... 06 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 05 ...... 48
Fionagus ........... 13 ..... 00 ... 14 ..... 08 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 43
dasa29 ............. 19 ..... 01* . 04 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 02 ...... 42
Deep Easterly .... 17 ..... 00 ... 07 ..... 10 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 42
Rebelbrowser ..... 20 ..... 05*.. 00 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 41
jd .................... 14 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 41
hellboy99 .......... 14 ..... 00 ... 10 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 39
pauldry ............. 12 ..... 00 ... 09 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 06 ...... 35
DOCARCH .......... 11 ..... 02*.. 00 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 07 ...... 33
redsunset ......... 19 ..... 02* .. 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 ..... 04 ...... 33
nilhg ................ 11 ..... 01*... 00 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 09 ...... 32
Strasser ............ 04 ..... 07*.. 06 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 07 ...... 27

It was necessary to adjust the scores for highest temp of month, oddly enough the higher scores were on the progression but then there would have been too few scoring 0-8 so some in that range were boosted (*) ... the scores were generally rather clustered because it was a warm month with unusually low extremes for a warm month. Most guessed close on sunshine. The Cork scores are a blend of temp and precip scores and reflect the rank order of the combined totals.

Congrats to SeaFields, Joe Public and Danno for leading the way this month.

The updated annual scoring race will follow shortly (then lunch). :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2010 9:16pm

Updated annual scoring race, at the half-way point (half-way for those with all six months entered) ...

Joe Public.... (337/6) ... 56.2
thetonynator (219/4) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (253/5) ... 50.6
DOCARCH..... (302/6) ... 50.3
Su Campu.... (289/6) ... 48.2
Talkabout ... (192/4) ... 48.0
Danno......... (283/6) ... 47.2
Kindred Spirit (282/6) ... 47.0
Redsunset.... (280/6) ... 46.7

Con Sensus.. (280/6) ... 46.7

Nilhg........... (278/6) ... 46.3
M.T. Cranium (274/6) ... 45.7
Rebelbrowser (173/4) ... 43.3
Hellboy99..... (252/6) ... 42.0
Strasser...... (251/6) .... 41.8
JD.............. (249/6) .... 41.5
Nacho Libre.. (242/6) ... 40.3
200motels.....(230/6) ... 38.3
Johnmac ..... (191/5) ... 38.2
Dasa29......... (227/6) .. 37.8
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Fionagus....... (218/6) .. 36.3
Seafields .... (180/5) .... 36.0
Pauldry ....... (104/3) ... 34.7
Deep Easterly (192/6) ... 32.0

Slight changes here and there, but it remains a very close race.

Check my math for your score, as I am in a bit of high-altitude fog here.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2010 7:11pm

July scoring ...

Forecaster ........ Mean (C) ..... Max .... Min .... Rain% ... Sun% .... Mull15
____________________________________________________________

............................ 15.7 ..... 24.2 ..... 6.3 .... 216 .... 076 .... 23.7 ... TOTAL

Danno ................... 25 ...... 16 ...... 04 ..... 10* ..... 08 ..... 09 ..... 72
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 22 ...... 18 ...... 19 ..... 06* ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 71
redsunset .............. 22 ...... 12 ...... 13 ..... 09* ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 65
Strasser ................ 24 ...... 17 ...... 00 ..... 11* ..... 07 ..... 04 ..... 63
200motels .............. 25 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 13* ..... 06 ..... 01 ..... 57
Joe Public .............. 21 ...... 06* .... 14 ..... 08* ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 58
thetonynator .......... 20 ...... 08* .... 16 ..... 06* ..... 04 ..... 01 ..... 55
waterways ............. 12 ...... 00 ...... 15 ..... 13* ..... 04 ..... 10 ..... 54
nilhg ..................... 24 ...... 13 ...... 05 ..... 03* ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 51
pauldry .................. 17 ...... 05* .... 09 ..... 09* ..... 03 ..... 07 ..... 50

Con Sensus ............ 25 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 01* ..... 04 ..... 01 ..... 49

mickger844posts ..... 23 ...... 00 ...... 18 .,.... 00 ...... 04 ..... 00 ..... 45
jd ......................... 20 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 04* ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 44
JamBur .................. 21 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 01* ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 42
Fionagus ................ 21 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 00 ...... 01 ..... 01 ..... 41
Rebelbrowser .......... 16 ...... 00 ...... 15 ..... 01* ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 41
Dasa29 .................. 18 ...... 02* .... 17 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 03 ..... 40
kindredspirit ........... 15 ...... 00 ...... 13 ...... 00 ..... 05 ..... 05 ..... 38
nacho libre ............. 20 ...... 00 ...... 10 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 ..... 38
WolfeIRE ................ 22 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 37
hellboy99 ............... 24 ...... 00 ...... 07 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 34
DOCARCH ............... 20 ...... 03* .... 05 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 01 ..... 33
SeaFields ............... 11 ...... 08*..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 31
Su Campu .............. 13 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 01 ..... 31
M.T. Cranium .......... 17 ...... 00 ...... 05 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 00 ..... 26
talkabout ............... 22 ...... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 01 ..... 25
Deep Easterly ......... 20 ...... 01* ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 23
John mac ............... 11 ...... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08* .... 03 ..... 01 ..... 23

_____________________________________

* denotes scores adjusted by minimum scoring rules; these were applied to the lower range of the max temp for month and to all of the rainfall forecasts, others qualified without adjustment, and the scoring for the bonus was done basically in rank order down to about 3 points and half the rain you predicted for the lower points. Anyone who went dry went bust.

Congrats to Danno and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way through this rather challenging month. Annual scoring table to be updated next.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2010 7:34pm

Annual scoring race through July ...

Joe Public.... (395/7) ... 56.4
thetonynator (274/5) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (324/6) ... 54.0
Danno......... (355/7) ... 50.7
Redsunset.... (345/7) ... 49.3
DOCARCH..... (335/7) ... 47.9

Con Sensus.. (329/7) ... 47.0

Nilhg........... (327/7) ... 46.7
Su Campu.... (320/7) ... 45.7
Kindred Spirit (320/7) ... 45.7
Strasser...... (314/7) ... 44.9
Talkabout ... (217/5) ... 43.4
M.T. Cranium (300/7) ... 42.9
Rebelbrowser (214/5) ... 42.8
JD.............. (293/7) .... 41.9
200motels.....(287/7) ... 41.0
Hellboy99..... (286/7) ... 40.9
Nacho Libre.. (280/7) ... 40.0
Pauldry ....... (154/4) ... 38.5
Dasa29......... (267/7) .. 38.1
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Fionagus....... (259/7) .. 37.0
Johnmac ..... (214/6) ... 35.7
Seafields .... (211/6) .... 35.2
Deep Easterly (215/7) ... 30.7

It's turning into a close race now at the top of the pack with Joe Public holding onto a narrow lead over Thetonynator and Jerry Seinfeld, as Danno and Redsunset have moved up.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2010 8:03pm

August scores as follows ...

Forecaster ... IMT ... Max ... Min ... Rain% ... Sun% .. Gurteen 8th
_______________________________________________________________

Actual ......... 14.2 ... 24.2 ... 0.6 ... 052 ... 133 .. 19.8 .. 01.2

Fionagus ........ 17 .... 20 .... 15* .... 07* .... 05 ... 05 ... 03 .... 72
Danno ........... 14 .... 15 .... 14* .... 04* .... 08 ... 05 ... 04 .... 64
Jerry Seinfeld .. 15 .... 14 .... 00 ..... 10* .... 07 ... 05 ... 04 .... 55
DOCARCH ....... 11 .... 04 .... 19* .... 07* .... 06 ... 03 ... 05 .... 55
Thetonynator... 13 .... 13 .... 08* ... 09* .... 06 ... 01 ... 05 .... 55
pauldry .......... 14 .... 19 .... 08* .... 03* .... 05 ... 05 ... 00 .... 54
Strasser ......... 19 .... 13 ... 17* .... 01* .... 02 ... 05 ... 01 .... 58
TheInquisitor.... 23 .... 00 ... 14* .... 08* .... 00 ... 00 ... 04 .... 49
KindredSpirit ... 14 .... 12 .... 12* .... 00 ..... 01 ... 04 ... 04 .... 47
John mac ....... 13 .... 00 .... 06* .... 09* .... 08 ... 02 ... 05 .... 43
nilhg ............. 10 .... 04 .... 06* .... 12* .... 05 ... 00 ... 05 .... 42

Con Sensus .... 12 .... 03 .... 05* .... 04* .... 05 ... 05 ... 05 .... 39

Su Campu ...... 21 .... 02 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ... 04 ... 05 .... 38
Deep Easterly.. 18 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 06* .... 05 ... 05 ... 03 .... 37
mickger844ps.. 11 .... 04 .... 09* .... 00 ..... 03 ... 05 ... 04 .... 36
Joe Public ...... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 08* ... 10 .... 02 ... 04 .... 36
WolfeIRE ....... 12 .... 00 .... 12* .... 00 ..... 04 ... 03 ... 04 .... 35
MT Cranium ... 17 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 04* .... 04 ... 04 ... 05 .... 34
Rebelbrowser.. 08 .... 04 .... 00 ..... 07* .... 06 ... 05 ... 04 .... 34
nacho libre .... 11 .... 00 .... 14* .... 00 ..... 01 ... 02 ... 04 .... 32
waterways .... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 10* .... 07 ... 02 ... 01 .... 32
redsunset ..... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 04* .... 06 ... 05 ... 05 .... 32
hellboy99 ...... 10 .... 01 .... 04* ... 03* .... 06 ... 02 ... 04 .... 30
upforanything. 09 .... 05 .... 07* ... 00 ...... 06 ... 02 ... 00 .... 29
dasa29 ......... 05 .... 00 .... 02* ... 07* .... 07 ... 02 ... 02 .... 25
homolumo ..... 00 .... 05 ..... 00 .... 05* .... 02 ... 05 ... 05 .... 22
200motels ..... 06 .... 00 .... 10* ... 00 ...... 02 ... 04 ... 00 .... 22
jd ................ 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 01* ... 03 .... 00 ... 04 .... 09
SeaFields ...... 04 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 00 ... 03 .... 07

____________________________________________________

* denotes adjusted scoring as per the "minimum scoring rules." The minimum temperature for the month was so low that nobody would have received any points in the standard scoring method, so these were scored by the minimum progression. The rainfall was also well below the scale of our forecasts although some would have scored about half the points shown, once again, the scores were adjusted. Sunshine was running just outside the minimum progression and I was a bit generous rounding off but used the normal scale. As explained in the monthly thread, for the bonus, the rainfall portion was scored on the basis of 4/5 for dry forecasts (the rain recorded was in the last hour of the day after the event had finished) and a sliding scale on actual rainfall forecasts.

Congrats to Fionagus and Danno for leading the way this month.

The new running totals for the year will be presented soon ...

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2010 8:27pm

Annual scoring race updated ... as this will be based on your best ten (out of however many), I will work on a table that shows your best 6 so far (but not today) ...

thetonynator (329/6) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (379/7) ... 54.1
Joe Public.... (431/8) ... 53.8
Danno......... (419/8) ... 52.4
DOCARCH..... (390/8) ... 48.8
Redsunset.... (377/8) ... 47.1
Strasser...... (372/8) ... 46.5
Nilhg........... (369/8) ... 46.1

Con Sensus.. (368/8) ... 46.0

Kindred Spirit (367/8) ... 45.9
Su Campu.... (358/8) ... 44.8
Talkabout ... (217/5) ... 43.4
M.T. Cranium (334/8) ... 41.8
Pauldry ....... (208/5) ... 41.6
Fionagus....... (331/8) .. 41.4
Rebelbrowser (248/6) ... 41.3
Hellboy99..... (316/8) ... 39.5
Nacho Libre.. (312/8) ... 39.0
200motels.....(309/8) ... 38.6
JD.............. (302/8) .... 37.8
Johnmac ..... (257/7) ... 36.7
Dasa29......... (292/8) .. 36.5
Deep Easterly (252/8) ... 31.5
Seafields .... (218/7) .... 31.1

The field is actually tightening up gradually, with Danno continuing his steady upward progress. There will be two awards available, the Boards contest "gold medal" so to speak (best ten forecasts) and the MTC Award which goes to the best average for all twelve.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2010 3:55am

A new feature to help you track your scores for the annual competition. As you know, the group decided to go with best ten forecasts (out of however many are submitted) as the basis for the scoring in the main contest. I added on the entirely fictional and value-free "M.T. Cranium Award" for the person who really wins by having the best average for all twelve (just kidding, both methods are good). So it's easy to track who is ahead in the race for that MTC business, but a little more tricky to evaluate the race for the main prize.

Therefore, I have constructed this chart which will show how the regular contestants (anyone who has so far missed zero, one or at most two months and is therefore still in the running) are doing, with two derived values, AA and BB, which after August would be their score for 7/8 and for 6/8 so far. When I add September to the chart, these change to 8/9 and 7/9. Eventually they change to 10/11 and 9/11. At the end I will drop AA which has no further value and list 10/12 scores. These will remain totals rather than averages simply because it saves me a lot of bother, you can figure out the averages if you want.

I think the "AA" score or 7/8 is probably the best indicator now since it might be assumed that each person in the running might drop one of the remaining four scores en route to their annual score.

Please check my math for your own score. Note that all March scores were adjusted up by five, this could not be edited into the table for March but was reflected in the annual scoring race starting with April. Con Sensus is once again added just to show how good she really is (bet you didn't know Con Sensus was a lady). :cool:

Forecasters are listed in the order they now stand in the MTC part of the contest, which may explain any slight variations in order. Sadly, Talkabout missed another month and has three strikes, so he's out; also Pauldry and one or two others entered a bit too late in the year to qualify (but next year, friends). As we get closer to the end I will start moving the entries around to reflect their "BB" ranking.

If you have already missed one, then you show the same scores under AA and BB with an asterisk for AA, so you have only one mulligan to use. If you have already missed two, then both your scores contain an asterisk -- you have no mulligans left. (Mulligan is a golfing term meaning a bad shot you can take over again, just in case you never heard it before).

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... AA ... BB

thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 329* .. 329*
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 379* .. 357
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 401 ... 365
Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 380 ... 338
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 362 ... 329
Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 313
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 311
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 348 .. 316

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 333 .. 294

Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 339 ... 301
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 327 ... 292
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 325 ... 299
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 310 ... 281
Rebelbrowser ... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 248* .. 248*
Hellboy99 ....... 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 299 ... 269
Nacho Libre .... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 297 ... 265
200motels ...... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 287 ... 260
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 293 ... 256
Johnmac ......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 257*.. 247
Dasa29 .......... 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 283 ... 258
Deep Easterly... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 238 ... 216
Seafields ........ -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 218* .. 211

(Please note, the AA totals will equal the annual totals for 7/8 entrants, and the entry there for 6/8 is statistically meaningless in comparison as it falls one entry short ... only the BB totals as of now are directly comparable to each other in all cases.)

Note also, I found two rather small addition errors in the annual race (these for Nilhg and Hellboy99). If I can't edit these the correct totals are 361 and 318).

DOCARCH · 24-09-2010 6:44am

Great work MT!

hellboy99 · 28-09-2010 12:13am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Great work MT!

+1 to that

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2010 5:49pm

I think that after the September scores come in, I will combine the two tables so that I can add in the later participants ... and at the end of the year I will certainly recognize a third category, best (highest) low score which would mean most consistent. So far I think Con Sensus is leading among those who have played all months.

The updated table will include the "all but two" column but now that you've had a chance to look at this one, I think we can drop the otherwise meaningless "all but one" score and replace it with the MTC average.

pauldry · 28-09-2010 11:23pm

Crikey MT where would we be without you?

Less interested in the daily goings on of the Irish Weather thats where!

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2010 6:34am

As long as everyone is enjoying the forum, then I'm happy to help out. Anyway, there are some other heavy lifters around here on the forum, and in this contest area DE gives me a lot of assistance. He worked out the IMT "normal" values and updates the threads regularly. Over on the forecast side of things, there are several people who make regular contributions too, and when it comes time to look at 2011, maybe we can share the load in new ways, although I do think people might over-estimate how much time this all requires (the new table took a while but now it will be very simple to update).

2010 Monthly Forecast Contest -- scores

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