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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I really can't see how donegal will experience much wintry weather from a not very cold continental easterly. The Met Office are making a safe call at least up to the beginning of Thursday.
    Well it was v bad up here during the big freeze easterly.

    Has the eastern being downgraded? I notice u said not very cold :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    *sighs* Bring on the Spring.

    Daffodil%201.jpg


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Pangea wrote: »
    Well it was v bad up here during the big freeze easterly.

    Has the eastern being downgraded? I notice u said not very cold :confused:
    It's actually like an election thats too close to call.
    Next week will be colder.
    That we are sure of-say daytime -with the ecm being least wintry to the end of the week.
    4's and 5's max or a little lower.
    Pressure will be high initially limiting precip to coastal drizzle or sleety flurries.
    Current indications vary Towards the weekend,most including ecm make it colder and more wintry with more precip that if it verified would by then be mostly snow.

    Thats the question,will it verify as the end of the week is definitely fi,the models are so flakey lately and also,the block is in fairness weak but trending stronger,it's just whether they will verify.
    Most guidance says they probably will.

    So it's not a good call at this stage to discount easterly winds especially a few days in to them as being "not so cold".
    Also bear in mind that areas not in line for irish sea convection if and when the colder cold arrives later next week are usually areas best placed or at least first placed to feel the wintry mix of any attempted atlantic incursion up against the easterly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    My "not very cold" easterly is what is being forecast up to Thursday. I don't want to comment beyond that, so that's why I agreed with the Met Office up to Thursday.

    Beyond the likes of Thursday can only be taken as a hint of what's to be expected. It does seem to be saying "colder" but the manner and duration of it are still yet to be nailed down.

    I think SnowAddict's analysis is top notch on the upcoming week and he rightly points out that some of the nicer charts are at 5 days and further out, and simply points to the northern blocking beyond that.

    And my 2 cents: I've seen a few -6 or -7 850hPa air masses dragged over Ireland in an easterly Scandi High on my time using this forum which delivered a few dry cold days with the odd flurry, as often as they have given 1-4 inches of snow train showers. Basically, the ramper within is saying that the first half of the week will be more of a starter than a main course:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    I'm watching this thread quietly and smiling. :)


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    the ramper within is saying that the first half of the week will be more of a starter than a main course:)
    A hungry one at that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭bray man


    I am too^^^:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I really can't see how donegal will experience much wintry weather from a not very cold continental easterly. The Met Office are making a safe call at least up to the beginning of Thursday.

    During a continental easterly in winter, Donegal, and indeed much of the western half of Ireland, may not see much snow (but it can happen), but be assured that it will feel wintry. Temps are usually lowest in the west during such spells being furthest away from the maritime influence of the Irish Sea. By contrast, the highest temps in summer and the most fantastic weather are more likely to occur in the west under a continental easterly.

    Hence my choice of user name. :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Something is definitely going down with the weather... I was up all night last night and there were birds singing and making strange noises throughout the night, very strange... they were also acting crazy all day today.

    After noticing the bizarre animal behaviour last night, and just coming here reading this, I'm beginning to wonder if there is actually something in this animal forecast model, that Donegal Postman could be on to something, there appears to be a definite correlation.

    Bring on the snow! :)

    Birds singing at 4am this morning, never heard anything like it, especially while dawn is still 4hrs away! Its either the weather or the birds were out on the lash last night and were just getting all loved up!!!!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    snaps wrote: »
    Birds singing at 4am this morning, never heard anything like it, especially while dawn is still 4hrs away! Its either the weather or the birds were out on the lash last night and were just getting all loved up!!!!!!!

    Ditto here Snaps. Birds were singing away very late last night which was kind of spooky and are still at it now. It is quite a balmy feeling, if gloomy, morning so that probably explains it. 4.4c currently. Some sharp bursts of wind at times to, which only happen on occasion; very strange morning weatherwise overall!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Good Morning everyone :)

    General Outlook

    There is now quite importantly strong consensus for the deep upper cold pool to our immediate East to back westwards through Day 5, signalling a retrogression phase. It is worth noting also that ECMWF 12Z Yesterday was over-progressive with the entire pattern, as indicated on the much better defined and consistent ECMWF 00Z Operational output this morning.

    From Day 1 (Monday) - Day 5, an Anticyclonic Northeasterly/Easterly influence is likely, with very hard frosts and fog developing widely at night time, along with rather cold days. There is the outside risk of some light sleet or possibly snow flurries/showers in Eastern areas at times, but conditions will generally remain dry throughout.

    ECMWF 00Z T+96 - Day 4

    100207_0000_96.png

    As mentioned above, there is general consensus on the overnight ECMWF/UKMO & GFS Guidance for the upper cold pool to back westwards, with winds turnning into a more Easterly direction once more at T+120. With deeper cold being advected Westwards and pressure falling to an extent, the threat of sleet or even snow showers increases towards Day 5 onwards. Rather widespread High Latitude Blocking is now indicated at Day 5, with further Warm Air Advection progressing Northwestwards into Greenland, facilitating further Medium - Long Term Height Rises.

    ECMWF 00Z T+120 - Day 5

    100207_0000_120.png

    Medium Term

    Beyond Day 5, ECMWF & other Multi-Model Guidance is very keen to indicate a long term cold pattern, with multiple High Pressure centres all across the variable North. Winds generally eminate from the East/Northeast throughout.

    ECMWF 00Z T+144 - Day 6

    100207_0000_144.png

    Towards Day 7, Retrogression of the main core of positive Height anomolies has taken place, now centred firmly towards Greenland. Easterly/Northeasterly winds persist across the country.

    ECMWF 00Z T+168 - Day 7

    100207_0000_168.png

    After the retrogression phase to Greenland has taken place, it is increasingly likely that a very cold but much more cyclonic pattern will then develop. Areas of low pressure may well approach from the Southwest, along with the potential for a renewed Northerly/Northeasterly incursion.

    Summary

    In summary then, a prolonged and quite likely increasingly cold spell is indicated on overnight NWP Guidance. Northern Blocking is likely to become the dominant feature driving our overall Weather Pattern through to Day 10. From Day 5 onwards in particular, it does appear that the threat of sleet/snow showers will begin to increase, as the Upper Cold pool from the continent backs Westwards. Overnight frosts, sharp to severe are likely, with fog persisting in some areas throughout the day.

    This pattern, out to Day 10 & possibly beyond is indicated very well on the latest CPC 10/14 Day 500mb Height anomoly chart, with a mean, increasingly unsettled, Northeasterly to Easterly airflow:

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

    SA :)


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I must say I like the 120 to 168 charts above as long as they don't stay out there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Indeed Mark. The ECMWF freebie today suggests (unfortunately :pac:) that the possible cold snap next week will remain polar maritime sourced rather than continental:

    216hrs Chart: (500's/850's)

    104585.gif

    Cold never-the-less, with always the risk of wintry type shower near coasts, but probably remaining mediocre further inland unless a sharp trough develops.

    I ask however, what does it take to get a polar continental these days? they just don't seem to happen anymore. Same in summer, true continental feeds just can't seem to get going the way they used too. The last half decent one was in May 2008. Only very brief encounter's since. :o


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I ask however, what does it take to get a polar continental these days? they just don't seem to happen anymore. Same in summer, true continental feeds just can't seem to get going the way they used too. The last half decent one was in May 2008. Only very brief encounter's since. :o

    We need to move the island ... not to the south pacific though :pac:

    As for the models...the Katy perry rule applies more than ever I'm afraid...



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    We need to move the island ... not to the south pacific though :pac:

    As for the models...the Katy perry rule applies more than ever I'm afraid...


    Ha ha! "the Katy Perry rule" :D Sounds good to me! Great tune by the way. Annoyingly catchy. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Considering the signals that were pointing towards retrogression happening, I'm relieved that the models do seem to be taming the northern part of the jet stream by t+144 onwards.

    But with healthy retrogression towards Greenland and not exactly the most significant of cold air pools over scandanavia, there may be a period where it gets warmer before it gets colder. On the other hand, there's no doubt that northern areas would receive plenty of snowfall sooner or later over the week starting 15/2 if that evolution even vaguely materialises. By materialises, that the HP actually does go to Greenland instead of travelling halfway:p

    The coldest air seems to be over Ireland by Friday going on the ECM and GFS charts. But because the cold air pool is not massive and is being "dragged" away from the continent. Small enough changes in how the situation develops would have big enough consequences for us, so I'm definitely not going to call that until Tuesday at the earliest:eek:


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The coldest air seems to be over Ireland by Friday going on the ECM and GFS charts. But because the cold air pool is not massive and is being "dragged" away from the continent. Small enough changes in how the situation develops would have big enough consequences for us, so I'm definitely not going to call that until Tuesday at the earliest:eek:
    Yes but at that stage ,you have to factor in cold surface air advection towards Ireland from the East.
    Theres lots of that and while the really cold uppers are transitory,if you have sub or close to zero air moving from 0 to 1000ft-you can let 850 temps rise to -6 or -7c and still have snow even at the coast.
    You mightn't have the normal super cold over warm sea convection but as the flow is to go more cyclonic,you will have more instability due to that.
    Thats what we need to see happening after next weekend.
    Surface air takes longer to travel here than the uppers and it's also more easily modified so we do need it to snow in Britain to disable the modification.
    Colder sst due to the january cold spell will help.

    Heres a good indication of how cold Europe is at surface level at the moment,the 0c isotherm is at sea level currently as far as Holland which at worst means the athmosphere is such that air temps won't go above freezing there.
    In reality with snow cover etc,they are well below zero at times.
    Thats the surface air we need and should be advecting in by next weekend as the easterly/NE persists :)

    0degisotherm.png

    ~Thats assuming everything goes to plan...

    I'm off now to watch the country tracks forecast which I've recorded,I'll comment on it in a bit.
    Expect a bad Gerry Murphy one by the way with the usual Wintry showers mentioned towards the end of the week.
    It will be exclusively ecm as usual.

    I hope they are the same type of wintry showers that they had on the farming forecasts in early january... as we all know snow was what came.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    yay \o/
    It's Tomaz if you don't like snow look away now shafanaker :D

    Rakes of snow everywhere on his map including us lot come thursday friday despite the high pressure :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Farming weather on RTE One now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    HA she commented on the jumper over the VT on rte news now.

    And not the forecast but heres Tomaz havin a strop.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HtEmhMfz7M


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,848 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it would be a bit better if that high to the northwest by end of next week was up around 1050mb.the models might not suggest this right now, but i fear the atlantic could fully breakthrough by the end of next weekend. still some places will have seen snow before this happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,017 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    I heard that with the jumper !!! classic :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    But i fear the atlantic could fully breakthrough by the end of next weekend.

    Not gonna happen Nacho,the signals are too strong and the whole scenario is becoming increasingly more stable.

    An attack from the atlantic would be coming from the south west alright because of blocking to the north west and that would hopefully favour a correct angle of attack with cold air already over us to give a snow fest.

    A long week of model watching ahead


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    it would be a bit better if that high to the northwest by end of next week was up around 1050mb.the models might not suggest this right now, but i fear the atlantic could fully breakthrough by the end of next weekend. still some places will have seen snow before this happens.
    Good lord,ya don't want it that high so close,we'd be dry and sunny.
    Ya want it to go towards Iceland alright and ridge strongly down through the atlantic killing the northern jet and aiding reverse zonality.

    The countrytracks forecast on bbc one was excelent by Tomaz as usual in this type of set up.
    Next weekends country tracks though should hopefully give him more to work with:p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Here that forecast from Tomaz for the week ahead.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IoFmgSNBv4


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    redsunset wrote: »
    Here that forecast from Tomaz for the week ahead.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IoFmgSNBv4


    roll on friday :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,848 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Good lord,ya don't want it that high so close,we'd be dry and sunny.
    Ya want it to go towards Iceland alright and ridge strongly down through the atlantic killing the northern jet and aiding reverse zonality.

    The countrytracks forecast on bbc one was excelent by Tomaz as usual in this type of set up.
    Next weekends country tracks though should hopefully give him more to work with:p

    yeah, if was too close it would kill off any showers but i was just apprehensive at 1037 and with it being well up to the northwest it might not be potent enough to stop the atlantic breaking through. there is always the danger that could happen particularly if the high weakened. i know there is no sign of that so far but as you say yourself the models can change within 48 hours and what we are hoping will happen is 6 days ahead. sorry for being so negative but it's the approach that works for me. although i appreciate it must be annoying for other people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,848 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    redsunset wrote: »
    Not gonna happen Nacho,the signals are too strong and the whole scenario is becoming increasingly more stable.

    An attack from the atlantic would be coming from the south west alright because of blocking to the north west and that would hopefully favour a correct angle of attack with cold air already over us to give a snow fest.

    A long week of model watching ahead

    would it help if we all did a snow dance??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    would it help if we all did a snow dance??


    OK lets do this!!!

    The Stomp helps get the attention of the gods.
    The entire danced is performed in a low posture as if you are snowboarding. The first step is to lift your left foot off the ground while raising your right hand and elbow up like a salute to your forehead. Return your left foot and right hand while lifting your right foot and left hand the same way for Step 2. Steps 3 and 4 are the same as Steps 1 and 2, you should repeat this sequence of four steps twice.
    snowdance-1.gifsnowdance-2.gifThe Stomp : Step 1 and 2


    The Search tells the gods that you are in need of something.
    This one is easy. As if you are looking for something, bring your hand up to your brow and search. The first step you search to the right, and lean into it. The second step, you search to the left. It looks as if you are searching for snow. Steps three and 4 are the same. Repeat this sequence of steps twice.
    snowdance-3.gifsnowdance-4.gifThe Search : Step 1 and 2

    The Wind tells the gods that you need help with the weather.

    Again this is easy. First step, hold both of your arms out to the right and wave them in a hula motion, as if the wind is coming and blowing them to the right. Step to is the same to the left, make sure to make the transition smooth as if the wind has changed directions. Again, steps three and four are the same. Repeat this sequence of 4 twice.
    snowdance-5.gifsnowdance-6.gifThe Wind: Step 1 and Step 2

    The Snow tells the gods that you need snow. The Snow ends in a Japan Grab, to let the gods know where you need the snow to fall.
    The fourth sequence is crucial. Raise your hands high in the air and then, waving them quickly as if to mimic snow falling then, you slowly lower your arms down to the ground. Go from standing on the tips of your toes and follow your hands all the way down to the ground. When you get down there, jump up smoothly with the music in a triumphant ‘Japan Grab.’ The Japan Grab is when you jump off the ground and bend your knee so that your lower left leg so that your foot goes back and to the side, like a J, reach down quickly before you come back to the ground and grab your left foot to the side with your right hand. Your left hand should be raised in triumph. When you get back down to the ground, everyone claps once together. Then, repeat the whole dance from the beginning until you notice a drop in temperature.
    snowdance-7.gifsnowdance-8.gifThe Snow: The Snow and Japan Grab
    That is it, the best thing you can do to help improve your chances of a weekend snow!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    redsunset wrote: »
    OK lets do this!!!

    done,lol


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