Dublin South Candidates?

The Volt

Will FG put up a new face? Labour will presumably be sending Alex White out to capture the seat. And Fianna Fail?

gandalf

Definitely White for Labour, thats a given. I assume FF will try and get Shay Brennen elected using the family name.

Doesn't matter who FG run, they could resurrect Mother Theresa from the grave and they will still be spanked after this. I remember canvassing for Labour in the past and the people of this area hold grudges for a very long time.

Sulmac

I wouldn't be surprised if all the major parties run the same candidates as last time - with the obvious exception of Fine Gael, who'll probably run a Senator or local councillor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_South_by-election,_2009

Think of the savings they'll make on posters. :pac:

Alex White will more than likely win, I think.

brianthebard

What are the chances that this will be run any time soon, considering that Cowen will probably have to run all the other by-elections that he's been holding off?

Sulmac

This could be seen as an opportunity for Cowen and Fianna Fáil. The two by-elections (Dublin South/Donegal South West) will more than likely have to be the same day. Given the fact both were "originally" FF seats and that FF are picking up in the polls it would make sense to have them sooner rather than later - later being nearer the budget. FF have a good chance of coming in second in one or both constituencies, although they will have to compete with strong campaigns from Labour in Dublin and Sinn Féin in Donegal.

I'm not sure about Fine Gael, it's up in the air at the moment with these questions about Kenny's leadership.

edit: It would make sense to hold them the same day as the Dublin mayoral election, whenever/if that ever happens.

rightwingdub

I'd say FF may choose Maria Corrigan, she narrowly failed to win the FF nomination for the by election last year and also Shay Brennan may sit out the by election out if he feels it is unwinnable and let Corrigan take the flak. FG have a councillor called Jim O'Leary but I'd have to say Alex White must be in with a good chance of winning the seat, there's no way FF will win the Dublin South by election.

Tricity Bendix

Brennan had his shot. DS won't vote for a former Anglo Irish banker, no matter what his last name. Corrigan should be given a go.

simonj

How long will a by-election take? - as long as Donegal maybe, FF wont be in a hurry - nor the greens - to give a seat to the opposition

Red_Marauder

It depends on how long it takes for a new bye election. If it's helf this Summer, it's Labours. If it drags on and Fine Gael develop a candidate, it could be Fine Gaels.

Fianna Fáil have no hope of winning a seat in a bye-election, of all things, in Dublin South. They will be likely to run Shay Brennan again.

My money would, reluctantly, be on Labour.

Tricity Bendix

Just because FF wont win doesnt mean they should chuck strategy out the window. Whoever runs in the bye-election should be the same person who runs in the next general election. And they'd be mad to want to run Brennan in a GE where banking policy will be a big feature.

Red_Marauder

Banking policy won't be a big issue in Dublin South.

It's civil-service-central. The big issues in Dublin South will be public service pay cuts, public services, and job creation.

The bones of the remedy for the banking system, the most difficult parts, have been pulled through and won't be the big swinger. Regardless of what FF's downfall will be in this constituency, a downfall it will be.

Rb

Alex White is going to have DS snapped up. I'd say he can't get the grin off his face this evening.

Badabing

Will Fine Gael approach George Hook? Im sick of his rants and blantant bias towards them so perhaps he might run.

Sulmac

Badabing wrote: »

Will Fine Gael approach George Hook? Im sick of his rants and blantant bias towards them so perhaps he might run.

Wasn't he talking of running as an "anti-Bertie" (presumably Independent) candidate in the Dublin mayoral election if Ahern does run? He'll probably save himself for that...

PHB

Red_Marauder wrote: »

Banking policy won't be a big issue in Dublin South.

It's civil-service-central. The big issues in Dublin South will be public service pay cuts, public services, and job creation.

The bones of the remedy for the banking system, the most difficult parts, have been pulled through and won't be the big swinger. Regardless of what FF's downfall will be in this constituency, a downfall it will be.

Explain the massive FG vote then?

FG I still think could win this. Huge FG vote in this area. I can't see FG not being in contention at least. I'd expect a 3 way between Labour, FF and FG, with Labour winning it if either FG or FF come 3rd.

Red_Marauder

PHB wrote: »

Explain the massive FG vote then?

FG I still think could win this. Huge FG vote in this area. I can't see FG not being in contention at least. I'd expect a 3 way between Labour, FF and FG, with Labour winning it if either FG or FF come 3rd.

What are you talking about, I said it's between FG and Labour. I'm not dicounting them, I said if the election is held off for long enough they could take it from Alex White... maybe read the post.

hollands

I tried to get on Liveline today to talk to that ass Lee but didn't get on. If he hadn't been carpetbagged in Alex would probably have beaten the other mediocrities running.
But the "swoon factor" took over particularly amongst the female voters. I hope FF run the Anglo Irish Bank candidate again. Alex, third time lucky!!

bijapos

FF: Maria Corrigan. They have no other choice, Brennan was a spur of the moment thing, but he has no chance im politics, as the poster above said he's tainted by Anglo-Irish. Corrigan has done a lot of work at local level and could use the bye-election as a springboard for the next GE.

FG: Jim O'Leary. Should have been their candidate last time around. FG have had their fingers burnt by a 'celeb candidate' and would be wary of trying it again. His position in Dundrum would spread out the vote well geographically with the other two FG TD's. HoweverO'Leary and other FG councillors have been caught out badly in the rezoning of Nutgrove and Stilorgan shopping centres so this might be held against him.

Lab: Alex White. Only logical choice for Lab, has the best chance I think. Dublin South voters are a fickle lot (see Eithne Fitzgerald in 92 and 97) and will be well pissed off by Lee leaving, will see FG as a form of a failure. White was favourite last time and he will do well with transfers from Green, SF and others. FF will be forced to give him their nr 2 preferences as for them anything is better than three FG's in the one constituencty.

Green/SF/Others: all non runners.

Red_Marauder

You know if there is one positive thing to come out of what happened today it's that Alan Shatter is now pretty safe for the General Election.

Even if there were further increases in FG popularity, a Mitchell-Lee-Shatter ticket would have been totally unsustainable.

Not everyone might agree but I would rather see Alan Shatter in the house than George Lee, I think he's a more dedicated, old school parliamentarian

Tricity Bendix

There is, of course, another Brennan FF could run. One that isn't of the hated banker class.

simonj

It is clear that the two main parties that have failed Dublin South, its time for a change and Labours Alex White is another product of a broken political system.
Leaving RTE for politics he failed to be elected to the Dail.
He voted fror coalition with FG in 2007.

his election to the senate is credited to a voting pact with Sinn Fein (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2007/0709/1183751671183.html)

Alex White is more of the same old closed shop machinery that drove George Lee out of politics

Victor

Sulmac wrote: »

edit: It would make sense to hold them the same day as the Dublin mayoral election, whenever/if that ever happens.

By tradition, it is for FG to issue the writ for the bye-election.

TheWestsAwake

Badabing wrote: »

Will Fine Gael approach George Hook? Im sick of his rants and blantant bias towards them so perhaps he might run.

But sure he is a Fine Gael supporter and openly admits it & proudly so, unlike Ryan Tubridy who was a member of Ogra Fianna Fail and has plenty of relations current of former elected members of Fianna Fail, he does not admit his bias but he cannot hide it.

rightwingdub

Tricity Bendix wrote: »

There is, of course, another Brennan FF could run. One that isn't of the hated banker class.

Is that Aoife Brennan she got elected as a councillor in the Dundrum ward in last years local election didn't she?

My guess is that FG will run Jim O'Leary and Kenny should be kept out of the limelight in the Dublin south by election, Kenny is fast becomin a liability for FG and if FG want to retain the seat then make sure that Kenny is kept away.

moonpurple

can just submit his application and go on holidays, seat will be his

hollands

If Alex White is adopted by the Labour Party and runs, he ought to be a shoo in but hey no complacency!! The Labour party's biggest tactical error was running two candidates at the general election. Lessons learnt the hard way!!. The problem is getting the buggers to call the bye-election any time soon.