Predictions on mobile OS direction.

jimmycrackcorm

I was reading this .....

http://www.cringely.com/2010/01/mobile-2010-predictions-apple-google-rim-oh-my/

Tech readers will recognize Bob Cringleys predictions, I just thought he makes a lot of sense:

"The smart phone marketplace will consolidate around three operating systems — Android, Blackberry, and OS X. Though there will be some ups and down in the market and the complete transition will take longer to complete than my usual 12-month timeline, Symbian, Windows Phone, and every other smart phone OS that isn’t from Apple, Google, or RIM, are likely to die or be reduced to insignificance."

Don't necessarily agree as there are a lot of people using phones primarily for texting but good point on the smartphone only OS. Blackberry usage is not so hot here in the EU though.

"Nokia is going to fail in using Qt and Symbian to compete with Android or iPhone application frameworks because Nokia just doesn’t understand software. Nokia is a hardware company that does software and hardware companies aren’t fighting this new war, they just build the weapons.
Remember Apple is a software company that sells its products in an expensive hardware box."


Free navigation as a sign of desperation?

"Ultimately (more than 12 months from now) there will be a shakeout and Nokia will drop Symbian and even Maemo in favor of Google’s Android and Nokia custom apps, UI, and hardware."

Nokia will have to go down the Android route - they may not drop Symbian but it will enivitably decline. -It's been out so long and hasn't generated the iPhone / Android hype and will never will.

long_b

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I was reading this .....

http://www.cringely.com/2010/01/mobile-2010-predictions-apple-google-rim-oh-my/

Tech readers will recognize Bob Cringleys predictions, I just thought he makes a lot of sense:

"The smart phone marketplace will consolidate around three operating systems — Android, Blackberry, and OS X. Though there will be some ups and down in the market and the complete transition will take longer to complete than my usual 12-month timeline, Symbian, Windows Phone, and every other smart phone OS that isn’t from Apple, Google, or RIM, are likely to die or be reduced to insignificance."

Don't necessarily agree as there are a lot of people using phones primarily for texting but good point on the smartphone only OS. Blackberry usage is not so hot here in the EU though.

"Nokia is going to fail in using Qt and Symbian to compete with Android or iPhone application frameworks because Nokia just doesn’t understand software. Nokia is a hardware company that does software and hardware companies aren’t fighting this new war, they just build the weapons.
Remember Apple is a software company that sells its products in an expensive hardware box."


Free navigation as a sign of desperation?

"Ultimately (more than 12 months from now) there will be a shakeout and Nokia will drop Symbian and even Maemo in favor of Google’s Android and Nokia custom apps, UI, and hardware."

Nokia will have to go down the Android route - they may not drop Symbian but it will enivitably decline. -It's been out so long and hasn't generated the iPhone / Android hype and will never will.

With the greatest respect that's horse ****e of the highest order.

He should just go look at the figures.
Nokia sell more than the next 3 biggest makers COMBINED.

I'm so sick of this blinkered, US- centric view of the mobile industry it's not funny.

Sure they're behind the others in not having a new, ground-up touch driven UI but they're getting there. They haven't even nearly made their play yet.

Tom Dunne

long_b wrote: »

I'm so sick of this blinkered, US- centric view of the mobile industry it's not funny.

Summarised in a nutshell.

The US analysts tends to be very blinkered. Part of this is due to the fact they came late to the mobile phone market. Maemo isn't going away, it's only getting started.

fuelinjection

well good points made by everyone.

but the Symbian in my Nokia 5800 is getting old now, although it does everying I want it to, I expect a change in OS soon on Nokia anyway. Apple have always done their own thing but I can see a future where all phones do the iPhone OS and we are just comparing like with like.

Danbo!

long_b wrote: »

I'm so sick of this blinkered, US- centric view of the mobile industry it's not funny.

This. I've always found the US market a little wierd. Cant quite put my finger on it, but it seems to be a different market completely there. I mean people with phones on their belts?? Pfft

Tom Dunne wrote: »

Maemo isn't going away, it's only getting started.

Lets hope so, its looking very promising. Yes people give out about Maemo5 and nokia's poor support for it, such as Maemo 6 being unavailable without buying a new handset, and no free ovi maps yet, but they admitted it was step 4 of 5 in the maemo development, so building on 5 should produce something very interesting.

I have to admit having owned a 3Gs, I do like OS X and never really got too stressed about it being "locked down", suppose its what you're into. Also, having owned the HTC hero for 3 months, Im now selling it, as android is not for me at all. Feels and looks a few years out of date, and just a bit messy to be honest. Htc did try put a "sense" UI layer on it, but it didn't really work to be honest, the power isn't there to drive it at all.

fuelinjection wrote: »

but the Symbian in my Nokia 5800 is getting old now

Symbian has been getting old for quite some time now. OSX and Android basically gave nokia a kick and said "here, time to start competing". Had it not been for the other big OSs, symbian could well have stayed at version 3.

Even though I dont like Android at all, its another competitor, which can only be good for the consumer.

matrim

fuelinjection wrote: »

well good points made by everyone.

but the Symbian in my Nokia 5800 is getting old now, although it does everying I want it to, I expect a change in OS soon on Nokia anyway. Apple have always done their own thing but I can see a future where all phones do the iPhone OS and we are just comparing like with like.

Symbian is getting a major shake up with the move to open source and QT. And I can still see it being used for a large amount of phones for the next 5 years at least. Now these will include (or possibly mostly be) lower end phones but it will still account for a large number of phones.

Mimikyu

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