Race for 4th

jesus_thats_gre

Manchester City

Doesn't take into account the Villa match today.


Remaining Fixures - Premier League

[b]		Tottenham		Man City		Liverpool		Aston Villa[/b]

Sat 20/03 PL	Stoke (a)
Sun 21/03 PL				Fulham (a)		Man Utd (a)	

Wed 24/04 PL				Everton (h)					Sunderland (h)
Sat 27/03 PL	Portsmouth (h)								Chelsea (a)
Sun 28/03 PL							Sunderland (h)	

Mon 29/03 PL				Wigan (h) 
Sat 03/04 PL	Sunderland (a)		Burnley (a) 		Birmingham (a)		Bolton (a) 	

Sat 10/04 PL	Arsenal (h)
Sun 11/04 PL				Birmingham (h) 		Fulham (h)

Wed 14/04 PL										Everton (h)
Sat 17/04 PL	Chelsea (h)		Man Utd (h)
Sun 18/04 PL										Portsmouth (a)

Mon 19/04 PL							West Ham (h)	
Wed 21/04 PL										Hull (a)
Sat 24/04 PL				Arsenal (a) 		Burnley (a)	
Sun 25/04 PL	Man Utd (a)								Birmingham (h)

Sun 01/05 PL	Bolton (h)		Aston Villa (h)		Chelsea (h) 		Man City (a)

Wed 05/05 PL	Man City (a)		Tottenham (h)
Sun 09/05 PL	Burnley (a)		West Ham (a) 		Hull (a)		Blackburn (h) 

Remaing Fixtures - All Competitions

[b]		Tottenham		Man City		Liverpool		Aston Villa[/b]

Sat 20/03 PL	Stoke (a)								Wolves (h)
Sun 21/03 PL				Fulham (a)		Man Utd (a)

Wed 24/04 FA	[i]Fulham (h)[/i]
Wed 24/04 PL				Everton (h)					Sunderland (h)
Sat 27/03 PL	Portsmouth (h)								Chelsea (a)
Sun 28/03 PL							Sunderland (h)
	
Mon 29/03 PL				Wigan (h)
Thu 01/04 EL							[i]Benfica (a)[/i]
Sat 03/04 PL	Sunderland (a)		Burnley (a)		Birmingham (a)		Bolton (a)
								[i]Benfica (h)[/i]
Sat 10/04 FA	[i][u]Portmouth (H)[/i][/u]								[i]Chelsea (h)[/i]
Sat 10/04 PL	Arsenal (h)								
Sun 11/04 PL				Birmingham (h)		Fulham (h)

Wed 14/04 PL										Everton (h)
Sat 17/04 PL	Chelsea (h)		Man Utd (h)
Sun 18/04 PL										Portsmouth (a)

Mon 19/04							West Ham (h)
Wed 21/04 PL										Hull (a)
Thu 22/04							[i][u]Europa League SF[/i][/u]
Sat 24/04 PL				Arsenal (a)		Burnley (a)
Sun 25/04 PL	Man Utd (a)								Birmingham (h)

Thu 29/04							[i][u]Europa League SF[/i][/u]
Sun 01/05 PL	Bolton (h)		Aston Villa (h)		Chelsea (h)		Man City (a)

Wed 05/05 PL	Man City (a)		Tottenham (h)
Sun 09/05 PL	Burnley (a)		West Ham (a)		Hull (a)		Blackburn (h)


Wed 12/05 EL							[i][u]Europa League Final[/i][/u]
Sat 15/05 FA	[i][u]FA Cup Final (H)[/i][/u]							[i][u]FA Cup Final (H)[/i][/u]


* [i]Matches in italics are non PL matches[/i]
** [I][u] Matches in italics and underlined are non PL matches that require qualification in order to reach next round[/i][/u]

My predictions:

[b]		Tottenham		Man City		Liverpool		Aston Villa[/b]	

Sat 20/03 PL	Stoke (a)	1pts							Wolves (h) 	3pts
Sun 21/03 PL				Fulham (a) 	1pts	Man Utd (a) 	1pts

Wed 24/04 PL				Everton (h) 	1pts				Sunderland (h) 	3pts
Sat 27/03 PL	Portsmouth (h)	3pts							Chelsea (a) 	0pts
Sun 28/03 PL							Sunderland (h) 	3pts

Mon 29/03 PL				Wigan (h) 	3pts
Sat 03/04 PL	Sunderland (a)	1pts	Burnley (a) 	3pts	Birmingham (a)	1pts	Bolton (a) 	1pts

Sat 10/04 PL	Arsenal (h)	1pts							Everton (h)	1pts
Sun 11/04 PL				Birmingham (h) 	3pts	Fulham (h) 	3pts

Sat 17/04 PL	Chelsea (h)	0pts	Man Utd (h) 	1pts
Sun 18/04 PL										Portsmouth (a) 	3pts

Mon 19/04 PL							West Ham (h) 	3pts
Wed 21/04 PL										Hull (a)	3pts
Sat 24/04 PL				Arsenal (a) 	0pts	Burnley (a) 	3pts
Sun 25/04 PL	Man Utd (a)	0pts							Birmingham (h) 	1pts

Sun 01/05 PL	Bolton (h)	3pts	Aston Villa (h)	1pts	Chelsea (h) 	0pts	Man City (a) 	1pts

Wed 05/05 PL	Man City (a)	1pts	Tottenham (h)	1pts
Sun 09/05 PL	Burnley (a)	3pts	West Ham (a) 	1pts	Hull (a) 	3pts	Blackburn (h) 	3pts
	

Based on my predictions above, the league table would end up as follows:

Liverpool		51 + 17 = 68
Aston Villa		49 + 19 = 68
Man City		50 + 15 = 65
Tottenham		52 + 13 = 65

JPA

Why upload that when it's already out of date?

therecklessone

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Doesn't take into account the Villa match today.


Remaining Fixures - Premier League

[b]		Tottenham		Man City		Liverpool		Aston Villa[/b]


Sat 17/04 PL	Chelsea (a)

That game is at White Hart Lane.

jesus_thats_gre

Manchester City

therecklessone wrote: »

That game is at White Hart Lane.

Fixed! Thanks

Villas next game v Sunderland is now huge as they have two away games to Chelsea and Bolton after.

Failure to win it would be a massive blow. Perhaps a fatal one.

jesus_thats_gre

Manchester City

JPA wrote: »

Why upload that when it's already out of date?

Jaysus, tough crowd!!

Mars Bar

Spurs

rarnes1 wrote: »

Villas next game v Sunderland is now huge as they have two away games to Chelsea and Bolton after.

Failure to win it would be a massive blow. Perhaps a fatal one.

I'm loving the drama of that statement!

mars bar

mars bar wrote: »

I'm loving the drama of that statement!

Lol, I know.

I opted for fatal over cataclysmic !

lordgoat

PHB wrote: »

So Villa don't want it, eh

Villa never want it, their season ends around Feb/March each year and they peter out... dontcha remember this PHB?!

Royale with Cheese

Manchester City

Thought it would be a good weekend for Villa, apparently not. Could end up being a good one for Spurs.

Great win for Spurs.

I was sure they'd drop points there.

me-skywalker

Manchester City

Spurs 3/1 for 4th place woop!

everdead.ie

rarnes1 wrote: »

Great win for Spurs.

I was sure they'd drop points there.

So was I, I really thought stoke would get a point

Oh I forgot to vote in the poll but I would of voted for spurs out of loyalty no matter what

Mr Alan

Manchester City

i still think Spurs run in is too difficult for them to get 4th tbh.I also thought they were very fortunate to beat Stokes 10 men today despite being 1 up.

Kold

Villa

Spurs' injury list is the biggest problem over the fixture list imo. If we had King, Woodgate, Huddlestone, Defoe, Pav and Lennon all fit, I'd feel a lot more comfortable... If Modric picks up a knock then we haven't a hope.

Spurs at home to Pompy next. They are solid at home so I'd expect 3 points there.

Mr Alan

Manchester City

spurs fans not being happy about Woodgate or King being injured is kinda like united fans moaning about hargreaves being out.....i would have presumed you's would be used to it by now!

Kold

Villa

I think we should recall O'Hara and Gio, maybe even Keane... Our bench was very inexperienced today.

Also, forgot about Bentley also being injured. Jeez 0_0

everdead.ie

Kold wrote: »

I think we should recall O'Hara and Gio, maybe even Keane... Our bench was very inexperienced today.

Also, forgot about Bentley also being injured. Jeez 0_0

O'hara can't be called back part of the deal for kaboul and Bently's back but came down with a virus yesterday

BERBA

Mr Alan wrote: »

i still think Spurs run in is too difficult for them to get 4th tbh.I also thought they were very fortunate to beat Stokes 10 men today despite being 1 up.

Get in there. Huge win for the super spurs, never thought id be sayin hope the mancs win 2moro !

JPA

Kold wrote: »

I think we should recall O'Hara and Gio, maybe even Keane... Our bench was very inexperienced today.

Also, forgot about Bentley also being injured. Jeez 0_0

I don't think you can recall a loan within your own league outside the window.

K-9

Manchester City

Mr Alan wrote: »

spurs fans not being happy about Woodgate or King being injured is kinda like united fans moaning about hargreaves being out.....i would have presumed you's would be used to it by now!

That game against City on the 5th May will be massive, same with Villas on the 1st.

MementoMori

Manchester City

rarnes1 wrote: »

Spurs at home to Pompy next. They are solid at home so I'd expect 3 points there.

O'Hara can't play for Pompey against Spurs can he?

Will be a big loss for Pompey if he can't especially given the state of Pompey's squad.

everdead.ie

MementoMori wrote: »

O'Hara can't play for Pompey against Spurs can he?

Will be a big loss for Spurs if he can't especially given the state of Pompey's squad.

Ya he can't play against his parent club

therecklessone

JPA wrote: »

I don't think you can recall a loan within your own league outside the window.

Correct. Also according to Talksport international loans cannot be recalled either, so no chance of Keane returning.

therecklessone

Not sure how much use this is, but I've had a look at all 4 sides results to date and the following stood out:

Against each other:

Spurs 8pts/5 games
Liverpool 8pts/6 games
Man City 3pts/4 games
Aston Villa 6pts/5 games

Against top 3:

Man City 9pts/4 games
Aston Villa 8pts/5 games
Liverpool 3pts/4 games
Spurs 0pts/3 games

In games Spurs "should" have won*:

Liverpool 13pts/5 games
Aston Villa 12pts/6 games
Man City 11pts/6 games
Spurs 3pts/6 games

*Hull, Stoke and Wolves at WHL, Birmingham, Everton and Wolves away.

The last category is a bit arbitrary, but it represents the games that Spurs fans think we should have got a better return from (I originally did this for Spurs' consumption only) What is interesting is that taking all that into account, here are the points totals:

Aston Villa 26pts/16 games
Liverpool 24pts/15 games
Man City 23pts/14 games
Spurs 11pts/14 games

Yet Spurs are 4 clear of Liverpool and 5 clear of both City and Villa (albeit with some games in hand for the latter two) People are making out that Spurs have the tougher run-in on paper, but all four sides are dropping points to different teams, and nobody should assume anything about the remaining fixtures for all four sides.

note: I am aware that the other 3 sides could pick a different six fixtures for the 3rd category and the results would be different, but that kind of backs up my point IMO

therecklessone

therecklessone wrote: »

Not sure how much use this is, but I've had a look at all 4 sides results to date and the following stood out:

Against each other:

Spurs 8pts/5 games
Liverpool 8pts/6 games
Man City 3pts/4 games
Aston Villa 6pts/5 games

Against top 3:

Man City 9pts/4 games
Aston Villa 8pts/5 games
Liverpool 3pts/4 games
Spurs 0pts/3 games

In games Spurs "should" have won*:

Liverpool 13pts/5 games
Aston Villa 12pts/6 games
Man City 11pts/6 games
Spurs 3pts/6 games

*Hull, Stoke and Wolves at WHL, Birmingham, Everton and Wolves away.

The last category is a bit arbitrary, but it represents the games that Spurs fans think we should have got a better return from (I originally did this for Spurs' consumption only) What is interesting is that taking all that into account, here are the points totals:

Aston Villa 26pts/16 games
Liverpool 24pts/15 games
Man City 23pts/14 games
Spurs 11pts/14 games

Yet Spurs are 4 clear of Liverpool and 5 clear of both City and Villa (albeit with some games in hand for the latter two) People are making out that Spurs have the tougher run-in on paper, but all four sides are dropping points to different teams, and nobody should assume anything about the remaining fixtures for all four sides.

note: I am aware that the other 3 sides could pick a different six fixtures for the 3rd category and the results would be different, but that kind of backs up my point IMO

Good post.

Tbh, atm I'd make Spurs slight favs for 4th but that changes day by day.

Run-ins mean fcuk all. Most teams are fighting for something.

I must say though, 3 points at Stoke was mighty impressive.

everdead.ie

rarnes1 wrote: »

Good post.

Tbh, atm I'd make Spurs slight favs for 4th but that changes day by day.

Run-ins mean fcuk all. Most teams are fighting for something.

I must say though, 3 points at Stoke was mighty impressive.

I said last week after villa drew with them that a point is a very good result and I still think that the only team who have beaten them at the brittania apart from the current top 4 is Birmingham. I was delighted to get three yesterday and to be honest we could beat arsenal and Chelsea just to lose against Bolton and Burnley. Thats the type of season it's been

PHB

Manchester City

I utterly forgot Gudjohnsen had joined Spurs, great little loan signing. A real intelligent football player who has experience of bringing a team up to 4th, as he did with Chelsea.

jank

Think its too late for liverpool now. Between Spurs and Man city at this stage.

Johner

Manchester City

Man City 5/4
Tottenham 7/4
Liverpool 9/2
Aston Villa 6/1
Everton 66/1

Juan Pablo

Spurs

Good post therecklessone, some interesting comparisons there

Simply put, if we can beat Everton on Wednesday, then 4th place is ours to lose. After the weekends results it is really looking like a two horse race, the game on May 5th in COMS may very well be a 4th place playoff.

K-9

Manchester City

Johner wrote: »

Man City 5/4
Tottenham 7/4
Liverpool 9/2
Aston Villa 6/1
Everton 66/1

Villa worth a bet there.

Liverpool probably need 17 points out of 21, absolute minimum and are depending on Spurs and City to lose against the top 3. It's possible, but really we are dependent on Torres to get them.

Them's great odds for Villa.

Pepe LeFrits

I still think Liverpool can squeeze into 4th; their run in compared to Spurs and City's gives them a chance. I don't think Villa can win enough games to get it.

MrKingsley

Villa

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

I still think Liverpool can squeeze into 4th; their run in compared to Spurs and City's gives them a chance. I don't think Villa can win enough games to get it.

Id have villa ahead of liverpool now. I think that pool are out of it now. I no its hypothetical and quite unlikely but if spurs, villa and city were to win their games in hand liverpool would be 5 behind villa, 7 behind spurs and 8 behind city. I think that they could finish strongly but they are now far too dependant on all 3 teams dropping a lot of points. At least one of those teams will finish strongly and thats all it takes.

My money is still with spurs. Every week that goes by that they are still in 4th their confidence seems to grow. This is definitely a stronger team than in years gone past. To go to stoke and win under that pressure is huge. Other spurs teams would have crumbled. And to do so without king, woodgate, palacios, huddlestone, lennon, bentley and defoe makes it even more impressive

SlickRic

if Liverpool get 4th now, the others should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

Xavi6

Spurs

Massive, massive three points for us yesterday.

Overall a superb performance bar the little token blip towards the end. Hopefully Mancini lets us express ourselves in that way from now til the end of the season.

If he does then we can do it.

SlickRic

Xavi6 wrote: »

Overall a superb performance bar the little token blip towards the end. Hopefully Mancini lets us express ourselves in that way from now til the end of the season.

If he does then we can do it.

i hate using this abbreviation...

but +1 is the only thing i can think of!

completely agree.

apart from the 'hopefully' part of course

everdead.ie

Probably the most worrying thing for Liverpool if they fail to get fourth is that whoever gets it will have more money to spend this summer then them.

jaykay74

Manchester City

everdead.ie wrote: »

Probably the most worrying thing for Liverpool if they fail to get fourth is that whoever gets it will have more money to spend this summer then them.

Hardly, 4th guarantees a couple of rounds of prequalifiers for the league stages. Its not until the 4th place team gets through these that untold riches await

everdead.ie

jaykay74 wrote: »

Hardly, 4th guarantees a couple of rounds of prequalifiers for the league stages. Its not until the 4th place team gets through these that untold riches await

I mean that Liverpool don't have much to spend other then what they make from player sales.
City have virtually a blank check book
Villa have an owner who is happy to support MON with his checkbook
Spurs Generally can find a nice few bob to spend as well

I wasn't actually talking about the champions league money;)

daveyboy_1ie

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

I still think Liverpool can squeeze into 4th; their run in compared to Spurs and City's gives them a chance. I don't think Villa can win enough games to get it.

Same here, I still believe Liverpool are stronger than Spurs and Villa so should squeeze these two out. The only one I would be worried over is City as they seem to have more in their locker and have those games in hand. whoever just puts a decent run together will grab it and until the United game I thought the 'pool were starting to get back there again.

Handsome Bob

Johner wrote: »

Man City 5/4
Tottenham 7/4
Liverpool 9/2
Aston Villa 6/1
Everton 66/1

Tempting.

Johner

Manchester City

I have to say I am tempted by Pool at 9/2 as well.

Bounty Hunter

thats it lads continue to write off the team who are unbeaten in the league in 2010 and have two games in hand on Liverpool while only being 1 point behind them, their race is certainly over its not like people generally consider them to have one of the better run ins or anything.

PHB

Manchester City

If City get 4th, the league will be forever changed. Liverpool will have massive trouble ever catching up again, because frankly, once City have the CL, combined with the money they'll have, they will be able to attract some serious quality very quickly.

For that reason, I'd rather Liverpool came fourth, but Villa or Sprs would be great.

Sadly, I think Villa aren't going to do it unless MON has a serious attitude shift. Unbeaten is great, it really is, but frankly, 2 draws is worse than one win and one loss. Arsenal were unbeaten in their great season, but what people don't realise is that United and Chelsea have significantly beaten their points total while losing during a season. MON seems to be very negative atm, unlikely to go for the killer victory imo. If they don't start taking risks, they'll have trouble getting the momentum. I think its fair to say, that the team that gets 4th is prob gona need to win close to 75% of their remaining games. One of the teams is going to put together a run I'd say.

everdead.ie

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

thats it lads continue to write off the team who are unbeaten in the league in 2010 and have two games in hand on Liverpool while only being 1 point behind them, their race is certainly over its not like people generally consider them to have one of the better run ins or anything.

I don't think anyone is discounting them although even though your undefeated in 2010 your 7th in the ppg table(used that because of your games in hand) Villa have to start turning draws into wins

Bounty Hunter

everdead.ie wrote: »

I don't think anyone is discounting them although even though your undefeated in 2010 your 7th in the ppg table(used that because of your games in hand) Villa have to start turning draws into wins

as i said in the Liverpool thread im not confident of getting 4th and atm both Villa and Liverpool are chasing Spurs and City in this. Thankfully most people seem to expect those two to be the more likely to mess it up for whatever reason but they are still the ones setting the pace in this race atm. My main point though is that Villa who arent losing and are only a point behind Pool despite having 2 games in hand on them are def as much in the Race as Liverpool imo and i keep seing people tipping pool to take 4th while writing Villa off totally. Im not saying we will but i think this is long from over as far as Villa are concerned.

Liverpool will also have most likely more than 2 extra Uefa cup games inc travel etc during their run in that people dont seem to be factoring in while talking about Villas one extra guaranteed FA cup game as a reason they will be too tired.

Helix

everdead.ie wrote: »

Probably the most worrying thing for Liverpool if they fail to get fourth is that whoever gets it will have more money to spend this summer then them.

whoever finishes below them will likely have more money to spend than them too though

K-9

Manchester City

PHB wrote: »

If City get 4th, the league will be forever changed. Liverpool will have massive trouble ever catching up again, because frankly, once City have the CL, combined with the money they'll have, they will be able to attract some serious quality very quickly.

For that reason, I'd rather Liverpool came fourth, but Villa or Sprs would be great.

Sadly, I think Villa aren't going to do it unless MON has a serious attitude shift. Unbeaten is great, it really is, but frankly, 2 draws is worse than one win and one loss. Arsenal were unbeaten in their great season, but what people don't realise is that United and Chelsea have significantly beaten their points total while losing during a season. MON seems to be very negative atm, unlikely to go for the killer victory imo. If they don't start taking risks, they'll have trouble getting the momentum. I think its fair to say, that the team that gets 4th is prob gona need to win close to 75% of their remaining games. One of the teams is going to put together a run I'd say.

Spurs seem to be the only one on a good run, winning the last 4, same as United. They have to though because of their run in, which is damn tough.

Very poor value on those odds, Pool and Villa worth a flutter.

We need a minimum of 17 points from our last 7 games. It's a big ask but there have been signs that we could go on a run. The Away form is atrocious, 3 points from the last 18. We'll need 7 points out of the 9 available Away, tough ask with Birmingham, Hull and Burnley, but doable.