Irish Independent (Millward Brown/IMS) poll - February 2010

Sulmac

Increase in support for FG - poll
Friday, 12 February 2010 21:13

A new opinion poll shows that despite the controversy over George Lee's resignation from Fine Gael, that party has widened its lead over Fianna Fáil.

The Millward Brown/IMS poll for tomorrow's Irish Independent also shows that just 10% of voters are satisfied with the Government's performance.

1,000 voters were surveyed on Wednesday and yesterday, however, the last Irish Independent poll was almost exactly a year ago, so it is impossible to ascertain if movement is due to Mr Lee, or the Budget, or anything else that has happened over the past 12 months.

Fianna Fáil support is up two to 27% - but despite losing George Lee, Fine Gael is up even more, by four points to 34%.

Labour and the Green Party both drop three points, to 19% and 2% respectively; while Sinn Féin gain one to 8% and Independents are unchanged at 10%.

The only bad news for Fine Gael is a three-point drop in satisfaction with Enda Kenny - he's down to just %, although that leaves him ahead of Brian Cowen and John Gormley.

Eamon Gilmore retains the highest satisfaction rating - up two to 54%.

Finally, satisfaction with the Government is up three - but only to 10%; 86% remain dissatisfied; while just 4% have no opinion.

Story from RTÉ News:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0212/politics.html

First of all, it's the Irish Independent, so be wary. :P

If we compare these to the last two polls (The Sunday Business Post and The Irish Times) they seem to match the SBP figures for FF and FG.

I have to say I'm surprised that FG haven't made any loss or FF any gain (compared to the most recent SBP poll), and very surprised Labour are down by a lot compared to the IT figure. It's also the Greens' lowest poll rating in recent times too, which has to be noted.

So, for the most part, "Leegate" doesn't seem to have any major impact on the two main parties according to this poll - though I'm still going to wait for either the next opinion poll in the Irish Times or Sunday Business Post before I draw any conclusions, particularly with De Búrca resigning today.

Sand

I am not very surprised that Labour is down vs. the Irish Times figure. The IT is pretty much the media wing of the trade unionist movement, and I detect ( I have no scientific grounds for this) that the Irish people are getting a little less enamoured of the charms of Eamon "A man for all seasons" Gilmore.

I think the mood for fiscal reality is a little more prevalent than anyone outside the social partners ( TDs, Trade Unions, Civil Service) realise so the claims of no pain, all gain of Labour seem a bit foolish.

As far as Fine Gael go, they are just the victims of Fianna Fails unpopularity...They have some good ideas regarding the reformation of the state, but they remain a party of frustrated insiders, not a rallying call for outsiders to reclaim this country.

rightwingdub

Sinn Fein on 8%, thats a dire result for the Shinners given the state of the economy, then again Adams is a liability for Sinn Fein in the South.

thebman

At this stage FG have to question Kenny''s leadership if they are up so many points yet Kenny is going down in popularity.

Surely this is a clear sign that FG would do even better if a more charismatic leader?

hmmm

Sounds like Labour have peaked, where do they go from here? I agree with Sand, I think most people realise we have to retrench and don't believe Labours plan to cut nowhere and collect tax from the magic money tree.

Fine Gael are doing ok but should be 10 points higher. They may get power despite Kenny, not because of him. A pity because, like John Bruton, he seems decent and honest but he just isn't gelling with the electorate.

I'm not surprised FF have solidified support. They have taken some hard decisions and are being rewarded for it. I wonder however whether they can go much higher.

SF are going nowhere. More money trees and opposing everything, they have captured the loony left vote and no more.

Red_Marauder

Sand wrote: »

As far as Fine Gael go, they are just the victims of Fianna Fails unpopularity

I largely agree with your post... but surely you mean beneficiaries.

View

Red_Marauder wrote: »

I largely agree with your post... but surely you mean beneficiaries.

Not with the state of the budgetary arithmetic

Liam Byrne

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not surprised FF have solidified support. They have taken some hard decisions and are being rewarded for it. I wonder however whether they can go much higher.

I'd agree with the last sentence only. The fact that they took them about ten years too late has me praying that they won't any higher.

And what I read about the expenses "reform" today genuinely has me sickened by ALL of the parties in the Dail.

€15,000 with no receipts ?
€whatever for just turning up to work ?

We need to disband the current Dail and start again. No former candidates or dynasties need apply.

Scofflaw

Sand wrote: »

I am not very surprised that Labour is down vs. the Irish Times figure. The IT is pretty much the media wing of the trade unionist movement, and I detect ( I have no scientific grounds for this) that the Irish people are getting a little less enamoured of the charms of Eamon "A man for all seasons" Gilmore.

I have to say I have a problem with that, which is that the Irish Times doesn't conduct its own polls. The polls are conducted by a polling company, which stands to lose the only reputation polling companies can have (that is, the extent to which their polls reflect real opinion) if they shade the figures.

cordially,
Scofflaw

View

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I'd agree with the last sentence only. The fact that they took them about ten years too late has me praying that they won't any higher.

And what I read about the expenses "reform" today genuinely has me sickened by ALL of the parties in the Dail.

€15,000 with no receipts ?
€whatever for just turning up to work ?

We need to disband the current Dail and start again. No former candidates or dynasties need apply.

Why are you surprised?

They go out of their way to have toothless legislation in this area. TDs and Senators are on good salaries yet when you read their Declaration of Interest most of them don't appear to have a cent to their name. Few declare property, almost none appear to own shares (which just isn't credible) etc.

Their parties meanwhile run election campaigns that run to 100s of Thousands. They only have to declare donations above 5 or 6K - yet no one seems to donate to most of them. If memory serves me right, back around 96 or 97, the Greens (in opposition at the time) had more declared donners than FF, the PDs (both in government) and FG put together.

Sulmac

Part two:

Opinion divided over Lee's resignation
Saturday, 13 February 2010 22:20

A new opinion poll shows public opinion evenly divided on George Lee's decision to resign from politics and from Fine Gael.

The Millward Brown IMS poll for tomorrow's Sunday Independent also shows that half of those surveyed do not believe Enda Kenny will lead Fine Gael into the next election.

Initial reaction to Mr Lee's shock resignation indicated overwhelming support for his decision, and the poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, shows opinion evenly divided.

Some 1,000 voters were questioned by Millward Brown IMS for the Sunday Independent; 45% thought Mr Lee was right to resign when he did, 43% said he was wrong, and 13% had no opinion.

A clear majority of 58% think he should be allowed to return to work in RTÉ, while just 27% thought he should set up a new political party.

Voters were not asked if they wanted Enda Kenny to lead Fine Gael into the next election, but they were asked if they thought he would do so - 38% say he will while 49% believe he will not.

Richard Bruton is the clear favourite to succeed him if he does stand down.

Story from RTÉ News:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0213/leeg.html

I have to say I'm surprised that 58% think he should be allowed back at RTÉ.

thebman

Sulmac wrote: »

I have to say I'm surprised that 58% think he should be allowed back at RTÉ.

Me too, that doesn't make any sense to me.

Interesting if they think he should be allowed take over his old position or not.

yoshytoshy

The poll only questions 1,000 people. Would think at least 40,000 people would more resemble the publics opinion.

Are all these polls based on low numbers ?

dvpower

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Are all these polls based on low numbers ?

Yeah. I think 1000 is typical.

jhegarty

yoshytoshy wrote: »

The poll only questions 1,000 people. Would think at least 40,000 people would more resemble the publics opinion.

Are all these polls based on low numbers ?

1000 is more than enough for a poll like this.

yoshytoshy

I don't see that it is to be honest (enough) ,I do enjoy reading poll results though.

26 counties ,different issues with each council. Who do you approach in each county to find how people will vote ?
Can't see how 1,000 would do it to be honest ,some people are loyal for loyality sake ,some are looking for local issues sorted and other just don't know what to do.

There is definetly no confidence in the current government ,but in reality people still don't know who to vote for. I'm finding a lot of people seeing sinn fein as an option now ,I would've never considered it in the past.