Heavy Snow at times next week especially after midweek

burger1979

forkassed wrote: »

A snow fest on Sunday Night if this verifies

should i buy my ticket for the roller coaster now??? when does the ecm that MT is talking about get issued?

ninebeanrows

Unfortunately the latest NAE doesnt look good, very dry.

Pushes the small development around Ireland again.

and heading into central Britain by 48 hours :eek:

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Unfortunately the latest NAE doesnt look good, very dry.

Pushes the small development around Ireland again.

and heading into central Britain by 48 hours :eek:

sorry what is the NAE? thanks..how about that system on sunday/monday from the bay of biscay?

ninebeanrows

munsterlegend wrote: »

sorry what is the NAE? thanks..how about that system on sunday/monday from the bay of biscay?

It is a 48 hour Meso Scale model for produced by the UKM.

I am looking at the potential feature tomorrow evening.

Forecasting these small lows that will develop around the low pressure area are going to extremely difficult and satellite watching may be the best solution.

Vudgie

Very overcast in Dublin's City Centre this morning, cold too.

It was trying its best to snow early this morning with light hail showers. It is a real wait and see I think as it appers quite unpredictable. Its hard to imagine anything that falls lasting too long on the ground though.

jambofc

cant believe it,AGAIN were going to miss the most of it while the uk looks like there in for a few snow events,in different areas.

temps rapidly riseing 2.0/0.0

munsterlegend

jambofc wrote: »

cant believe it,AGAIN were going to miss the most of it while the uk looks like there in for a few snow events,in different areas.

temps rapidly riseing 2.0/0.0

i see where the british met office have an early warning out for the Uk on monday for heavy snow which is a good sign for us. reminds me of january when we got snowfall down here from the east. heres hoping!

no sign of wolfe this morning for his analysis - is the west asleep?! i also haven't seen maquiladora for a while.

WolfeIRE

Showers making their way into Donegal now. Mayo, Leitrim and Roscommon will also see some showers in the next few hours.

Friday will see showers or longer spells of precip effect Ulster and the Midlands in the late morning and the Atlantic seaboard, in particular, later in the day. The Midwest at the moment is in line for the heaviest showers, which will mosly be of sleet or hail.

Saturday could very well see an organised band of precip effect a line from the Galway City to Dublin. The intermittent precip is likely to be lighter the further north you are. The further north you are, the better the chances of seeing snow. I imagine that this line will change over the next 24 hrs but there are is a general trend towards an organised front on Saturday. The front will retreat SE and will give some snowfall over higher ground, at least, as it does so. All in all, overall precip amounts will be fairly small but will lead to an accumulation of a few cms where it does fall as snow.

Confidence for the latter - 60%

irish1967

No precipitation at all here yet today ..... so far

Lumi

The thermometer says 4.5C but the wind has a savage bite to it and there are some angry looking clouds rolling down the Corrib at the mo - here's hoping that one last waltz of winter's on the way:)

Deep Easterly

Can see this little shower:



floating southwards in my western sky. Oh, the excitement...:pac:

As I munch on my lunch here,I'm watching wales today on BBC one Wales and it's snowing heavily in the backround view behind the news reader in Cardiff.
They've just done a live report from Ebbyw vale also and that reporter was covered in snow and looked frozen solid as the snow was pelting down around him.

Here,I'm not so sure.
The showers in the irish sea will blow in,as the breeze is off there now but at my location,the dewpoint is only hovering around zero and is bound to rise if a shower passes through.
It's actually quite breezy here in off the sea but with a positive dp and an air temp of 5.4c,thats rainy sleet with snow confined to inland above 400ft I'd say.

Same seems true so far of the showers in the west,though with colder air this evening and night approaching,the snow level there is bound to drop to sea level but mainly inland at least a few miles.

As for into the weekend,Gosh who knows.
Tomaz on the bbc news forecast went right to sunday and had it dry..
Thats not to say features popping up now and then in the models won't materialise but if they do,I'm expecting hill snow from them and nothing but rainy sleet for the major population centres at the moment.

WolfeIRE

Showers off Donegal Bay area (Lisa Burke's fave three words), and along the Mayo/Galway coast. These showers are moving SSE

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Can see this little shower:



floating southwards in my western sky. Oh, the excitement...:pac:

+ 1 It's almost overhead now - can't believe I've spent 30mins watching a cloud :eek:

munsterlegend

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Showers making their way into Donegal now. Mayo, Leitrim and Roscommon will also see some showers in the next few hours.

Friday will see showers or longer spells of precip effect Ulster and the Midlands in the late morning and the Atlantic seaboard, in particular, later in the day. The Midwest at the moment is in line for the heaviest showers, which will mosly be of sleet or hail.

Saturday could very well see an organised band of precip effect a line from the Galway City to Dublin. The intermittent precip is likely to be lighter the further north you are. The further north you are, the better the chances of seeing snow. I imagine that this line will change over the next 24 hrs but there are is a general trend towards an organised front on Saturday. The front will retreat SE and will give some snowfall over higher ground, at least, as it does so. All in all, overall precip amounts will be fairly small but will lead to an accumulation of a few cms where it does fall as snow.

Confidence for the latter - 60%

where is that precipitation for saturday coming from Wolfe? probably won't amount to much down here if its from the north! do you think there is a good chance on Sunday given the uk met office warning?

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

+ 1 It's almost overhead now - can't believe I've spent 30mins watching a cloud :eek:

Believe it! Roll on summer I say, the clouds might actually be worth looking at!



Radar snapshot from last June.

WolfeIRE

munsterlegend wrote: »

where is that precipitation for saturday coming from Wolfe? probably won't amount to much down here if its from the north! do you think there is a good chance on Sunday given the uk met office warning?

It will push up from the south Munster before retreating SE, from when I reckon the UKMO warning comes into effect. How far North iT progresses is still up for change but at the moment it looks like a line from Galway to Dublin. The SE will prob have the greatest chance of seeing snow (late Sat PM/early Sun AM), although it certainly cannot be ruled out for everywhere else at this stage.

redsteveireland

Just took at stroll outside there and some pretty dark precip. ladden looking clouds loitering just out in galway bay, if they push in it will probably just mean heavy rain at this stage. Oranmore gives temp/DP 5.6/2.3:(

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

It will push up from the south Munster before retreating SE, from when I reckon the UKMO warning comes into effect. How far North iT progresses is still up for change but at the moment it looks like a line from Galway to Dublin. The SE will prob have the greatest chance of seeing snow (late Sat PM/early Sun AM), although it certainly cannot be ruled out for everywhere else at this stage.

I wouldn't say *will*.
This is far from that certain.
It was missing entirely from Tomaz's forecast at lunchtime...which is a high indication of how uncertain it is.
There is still a warning described as a moderate risk for friday and monday from the ukmo for the same kind of areas that have the snow today but including Eastern England.
I'm not confident the same risk applies to here yet especially away from high ground.
It's just not cold enough.

Deep Easterly

redsteveireland wrote: »

Just took at stroll outside there and some pretty dark precip. ladden looking clouds loitering just out in galway bay, if they push in it will probably just mean heavy rain at this stage. Oranmore gives temp/DP 5.6/2.3:(

In in the north of the county and it would seem there is a stream of showers developing to the west running down towards the city area. They don't look to heavy though, although cumulus is preventing a clear observation of the actual shower tops.

Su Campu

Some nice cells along the northwest coast now, though only rain according to Donegal airport's latest METAR. Temp/DP +3/+1

Also Sligo Airport +6/+2

Su Campu

1430Z

Donegal Airport Cloudy, +3/+2
Sligo Airport Light rain, +4/+1

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

In in the north of the county and it would seem there is a stream of showers developing to the west running down towards the city area. They don't look to heavy though, although cumulus is preventing a clear observation of the actual shower tops.

Spot on ! The showers are fairly frequent but light - they've hardly wet the ground.

snow ghost

Driving back from Castlebar - where it was fairly chilly with a few hail showers - a couple of hours ago, there was a dirty mass of the darkest looking snowesque cloud hovering over Westport and stretching all the way across the bay... the temperature went up a couple of degrees as I got closer and alas it was just rain...too warm... a month ago I have no doubt it would have brought a mini-snowmageddon.

Deep Easterly

A quick look back on this time last year:

850's charts for both 2009 and 2010 for the 18th Feb:

2009:


2010:


Synoptic analysis for the same date each year, taken at 12pm:

2009:


2010:


Feb 2009 started on a cool note but high pressure soon ballooned to the south and kept it mild and very dry for the remainder of the month. Max temps this day last year were roughly similar to what is being recorded over the last few days in 2010, 7.8c for example at Mullingar this day last year, while Valentia recorded a slightly milder 9.6c. Mins were higher though, averaging around 4c or 5c around the country.

Rainfall was as sparse in Feb 2009 as it is in its 2010 equivalent. 0.5mm recorded this day last year for example at Casement Aerodrome.

It would seem, despite total different synoptic set ups on the 2 days in question, that the weather this time last year was surprisingly similar overall to this day this year...:rolleyes:

Banalism rules! :cool:



Image & Data Sources:
http://www.met.ie/
http://en.vedur.is/
http://www.knmi.nl/

cherryghost

nice analysis de


(btw its blank)

Pangea

Well there u have it then, Im sure Il be posting a photo of the white stuff from here in the next coming days

And before people start saying it didnt snow on valentines day or blah blah , read his quotes not what the paper says
This is taken from last weekends paper

snow ghost

Pangea,

I saw on the British news last night that the spring bulbs in Britain aren't springing, they said they were a month behind usual or something, because of the cold.

Can't say I've noticed any strange anaimal behaviour around here in the last couple of days... but I'll be keeping my eye out now, if I see a fox coming out of the chipper with curry fries I'll let you know.

WolfeIRE

It's the battered sausage in the left paw that will really indicate how ourn weather will go.

Having just wrote that, I relaised how wrong that sounds but that was not intentional.

thetonynator

wouldn't there normally be daffodils and stuff round now? or do the seeds die when it gets to -12?